Author Topic: Coronavirus Thread / New / Old / Merged  (Read 30730 times)

Offline fulhamben

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #620 on: March 27, 2020, 03:59:08 PM »
I guess one issue with reviewing the stats on all this is that different countries are using different methods that make up the 'confirmed cases' number.
The US is, perhaps, one of the best examples for this. Inconsistent testing week-on-week makes any degree of infection rate rise, or fall, not a true indication of the rise, or fall, of the actual rate.
This then directly affects the mortality rate stats, as, unless every death is investigated as to whether the actual cause of death could be attributed to the virus, or whether the person did, or did not, have the virus present at death, then again those figures are biased one way or the other I would think.

So, In conclusion, the stats we have are the best we have, and so are the only indicator being used by those making the decisions that affect the rest of us. Anything else might well be supposition on the part of those that are intent on assisting.
id be surprised if the stats we have are the only ones the government has. For one I’d imagine they are recording everyone who rings 111 to report that they have symptoms. I don’t even know how they are recording deaths. As the virus won’t kill you but something like pneumonia that was bought on by the virus will

Offline Ged

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #621 on: March 27, 2020, 04:00:06 PM »
Plato and Pythagoras were scholars and philosophers who studied the facts unlike flat earthers who believed in superstition
Its science and facts that mater but of course we can never be sure of anything but ask yourself why you believe one or a few people who the scientific community disown
There is whole list of them but just two example scientists in the strict meaning of the word - Darwin and Galileo - should suffice.

Or you may want to consider this which you would be hard put to find in the MSM consensus:

Public Health England issued a policy statement on 19/3/2020 as follows“Covid-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease (HCID).”

Covid-19 was given HCID status as an interim recommendation in January 2020.

Is this because it is less infectious than first appearances suggested, or that it leads to less consequences than they thought in January?  Why wasn't this headline news ahead of the PM's lockdown announcement?  Or is PHE guilty of breaking the required narrative?

Just gentle questions you may wish to ask yourself before the wagon is moving too quickly for you to get off of it.

thats because the proportion of those who got infected that actually died will be small.It also means that the virus can be treated in non HCID facilities . that whole your digging is getting bigger and bigger beter get out before you make a fool of yourself

Offline fulhamben

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #622 on: March 27, 2020, 04:02:59 PM »
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy

Am I right in thinking these numbers are on the rise again today?
the numbers are always pretty much on the rise, it’s just they use percentages instead.
If you have 1000 infected and 100 more get infected today you say 10% rise
But if you have 10,000 infected and 900 new cases today you can say that it’s dropped to 9%.  It’s a stupid way of doing it if you ask me

The number was mildly higher yesterday, 8.3%, but still very firmly on a downward trend.

I appreciate looking at the percentages, ie the infection rate, may seem "stupid" to those only thinking about things very casually or simplistically, and only looking at the current situation. Someone with the intellect of say, a young child or dog, may struggle to think more than a few minutes ahead of their present situation. But for the rest of us, and certainly if you look at government policy and the scientists' analyses, the focus is on the rate of infection and how that might pan out over the coming weeks.

So if, for example, a country had 100,000 cumulative infections today, but that number was only increasing by 1% day-on-day, then 3 months from now they'd have about 250,000 infections, which may be manageable. If the rate of infection was say 8%, then in 3 months the number of infected would be 150 million, which is obviously catastrophic. If it was around 20%, it would be equally catastrophic, but after only 1 month.   
but only an idiot would read anything into the infection rate, as Everyman with a brain cell knows, that we are not testing the vast majority of the people with symptoms. So the infection rate stats gathered from the numbers released by the government  is about as useful as a chocolate tea pot.
So you don't think there's any correlation between the total number infected and the number of people turning up at hospital with severe symptoms?
there would be if we knew how many people were infected, but we don’t and possibly never will unless they check every single person in the country to see if they have the anti bodies. And considering that there is no test for that currently, I wouldn’t hold my breath


Offline Statto

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #623 on: March 27, 2020, 04:14:08 PM »
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy

Am I right in thinking these numbers are on the rise again today?
the numbers are always pretty much on the rise, it’s just they use percentages instead.
If you have 1000 infected and 100 more get infected today you say 10% rise
But if you have 10,000 infected and 900 new cases today you can say that it’s dropped to 9%.  It’s a stupid way of doing it if you ask me

The number was mildly higher yesterday, 8.3%, but still very firmly on a downward trend.

I appreciate looking at the percentages, ie the infection rate, may seem "stupid" to those only thinking about things very casually or simplistically, and only looking at the current situation. Someone with the intellect of say, a young child or dog, may struggle to think more than a few minutes ahead of their present situation. But for the rest of us, and certainly if you look at government policy and the scientists' analyses, the focus is on the rate of infection and how that might pan out over the coming weeks.

So if, for example, a country had 100,000 cumulative infections today, but that number was only increasing by 1% day-on-day, then 3 months from now they'd have about 250,000 infections, which may be manageable. If the rate of infection was say 8%, then in 3 months the number of infected would be 150 million, which is obviously catastrophic. If it was around 20%, it would be equally catastrophic, but after only 1 month.   
but only an idiot would read anything into the infection rate, as Everyman with a brain cell knows, that we are not testing the vast majority of the people with symptoms. So the infection rate stats gathered from the numbers released by the government  is about as useful as a chocolate tea pot.
So you don't think there's any correlation between the total number infected and the number of people turning up at hospital with severe symptoms?
there would be if we knew how many people were infected, but we don’t and possibly never will unless they check every single person in the country to see if they have the anti bodies. And considering that there is no test for that currently, I wouldn’t hold my breath
The test for antibodies will be rolled out in the coming weeks. And they won't need to test "every single person in the country". If they tested say 100,000 people, and 5% of them had the antibodies, they could say with a very high degree of confidence that 5% of the rest of population also have it. In much the same way that exit polls after elections only involve a relatively small portion of those who have voted but are generally very accurate.

But of course none of that is relevant, because you're wrong - we don't need to know how many people are infected to know if there's a correlation between the number infected, and the number getting hospitalised. All we need to know is that the proportion getting hospitalised, whether it's 0.1% or 20%, should be roughly constant.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 04:16:30 PM by Statto »

Offline Mince n Tatties

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #624 on: March 27, 2020, 04:56:23 PM »
Its getting really depressing reading all these different theories and so and statts,as though being shut up isn't bad enough.
Go do a feckin Jigsaw that'll get your mind off it😵

You could always post something interesting to take our minds off it.
Unlikely I know, but there's a first time for everything.

You and your other half posting all this poo theories and so on,you must think all of us on here are stupid and don't know what's going on...Patronising pricks.

Hmm interesting theory mince, and I share your suspicions, and on that basis I have instructed my Crack Investigations Unit to commence enquires as whether we have a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde on board ship, one suspect posing as two suspects.
As they say “ no smoke without fire “ said the Arsonist to the Fireman. “
I believe most prosecutions succeed due to DNA these days, we have come along way since the days of the Red Hot Poker and The Rack. 
I have my own theory about you and Mince. The only two posters on here who think the Hilda jokes are funny... always on at the same time... always posting to back each other up....

Very suspicious....

Hilda actually exists,so it isn't a joke.
Hang on a minute,I might be getting my dreams mixed up with reality again Father Ted.

Offline ALG01

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #625 on: March 27, 2020, 11:25:07 PM »
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy

Am I right in thinking these numbers are on the rise again today?
the numbers are always pretty much on the rise, it’s just they use percentages instead.
If you have 1000 infected and 100 more get infected today you say 10% rise
But if you have 10,000 infected and 900 new cases today you can say that it’s dropped to 9%.  It’s a stupid way of doing it if you ask me

The number was mildly higher yesterday, 8.3%, but still very firmly on a downward trend.

I appreciate looking at the percentages, ie the infection rate, may seem "stupid" to those only thinking about things very casually or simplistically, and only looking at the current situation. Someone with the intellect of say, a young child or dog, may struggle to think more than a few minutes ahead of their present situation. But for the rest of us, and certainly if you look at government policy and the scientists' analyses, the focus is on the rate of infection and how that might pan out over the coming weeks.

So if, for example, a country had 100,000 cumulative infections today, but that number was only increasing by 1% day-on-day, then 3 months from now they'd have about 250,000 infections, which may be manageable. If the rate of infection was say 8%, then in 3 months the number of infected would be 150 million, which is obviously catastrophic. If it was around 20%, it would be equally catastrophic, but after only 1 month.   
but only an idiot would read anything into the infection rate, as Everyman with a brain cell knows, that we are not testing the vast majority of the people with symptoms. So the infection rate stats gathered from the numbers released by the government  is about as useful as a chocolate tea pot.

Speaking as an idiot.... as long as you are measuring in a relatively consistent manner and we are, then you can draw a vast amount of information. you can tell if the trend is up or down and how quickly it is moving in one direction or another. And as you seem to be a learned scholar of sampling theory i think you will know the numbers they are measuring mean the figures are just about meaningful and actually, if you check other countries results too as I do you can see in many countries a corelation developing... but what would I know I am just an idiot drinking from a chocolate teapot.
we are measuring it on the very small amount of people who have become so unwell that they have to be omitted to hospital for Treatment and the test. It tells us absolutely sod all about the infection rate as the overwhelming majority will recover at home and will never be recorded.

on the 25 th we knew 9529 people had tested positive and on the 21st 5018 and on 17th 1950... even though many have probbly not been tested we do know from those figures, which are more or less like for like there are sufficient to show the infection rate is very likely reducing. the sample is big enough. it's not exact but good enough for a trend, so actually it tells a proper student of maths, as I presume you are not, plenty. and what is more if you track the progress as in other countries, especially italy, you will see a similar pattern so that further suggests the relevance.

if you choose to think it means nothing that is entirely your perogative, but if you would have studied the subject in depth you know you would think otherwise.


Offline toshes mate

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #626 on: March 28, 2020, 07:21:46 AM »
At long last antigen tests will be available from next week to front line NHS staff which will help to show previous episodes of coronavirus and indicate presence of relevant antibodies.  Details are pretty scant about the test being used so expectations are not as high as they could and should be given the Government's record up to now. 

We are still not conducting testing either often enough for presence of Covid-19, or across a wide enough spectrum of people to have a clear idea of what the infection rate really is.  By my calculation approximately 189k tests (based on daily average of 7K over 27 days which is highly optimistic on my part) have been conducted.  Were we to get up to the PM's promised 25k tests per day then we might have an altogether different picture of this virus and its infection rate since there may be a very large number of people who have contracted the disease and simply fought it off as is normal with most corona viruses.  We also need to consider that the test being used is also prone to giving false results (something less that 75% efficiency when 95% is needed).  Perhaps the home testing kits will be better.

 

Offline Statto

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #627 on: March 28, 2020, 09:48:44 AM »
At long last antigen tests will be available from next week to front line NHS staff which will help to show previous episodes of coronavirus and indicate presence of relevant antibodies. 

The antigen test isn't the antibodies test. This is the one that just tells them whether they currently have the virus.

Offline Southcoastffc

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #628 on: March 29, 2020, 11:55:29 AM »
This might be useful or interesting to some.  (I claim no expertise!)  It's from an Asst. Professor of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University in the US.

 * The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code.  (mutation) and converts them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

 * Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own.  The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

 * The virus is very fragile;  the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat.  That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). 

By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.

 * HEAT melts fat;  this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything.  In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.

 * Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.

 * Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.

 * Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.

 * NO BACTERICIDE OR ANTIBIOTIC SERVES.  The virus is not a living organism like bacteria;  antibodies cannot kill what is not alive.

 * NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth.  While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only
-between 3 hours (fabric and porous),
-4 hours (copper and wood)
-24 hours (cardboard),
- 42 hours (metal) and
-72 hours (plastic). 

But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.

 * The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or air conditioners in houses and cars. 

They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness.  Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.

 * UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein.  For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect.  Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin.

 * The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.

 * Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.

 * NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve.  The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.

 * LISTERINE IF IT SERVES!  It is 65% alcohol.

 * The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be.  The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.

 * You should wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc.  And when using the bathroom.

 * You should HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks.  The thicker the moisturizer, the better. 

* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.


Offline Neil D

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #629 on: March 29, 2020, 12:11:59 PM »
Re. above, Southcoastffc: interesting and useful.  Thank you.

Offline Barrett487

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #630 on: March 29, 2020, 12:58:26 PM »
Re. above, Southcoastffc: interesting and useful.  Thank you.

 :plus one:

Offline love4ffc

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #631 on: March 29, 2020, 05:35:38 PM »
Question, how are any of you expats doing in Spain? 


Offline toshes mate

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #632 on: March 30, 2020, 08:54:38 AM »
At long last antigen tests will be available from next week to front line NHS staff which will help to show previous episodes of coronavirus and indicate presence of relevant antibodies. 

The antigen test isn't the antibodies test. This is the one that just tells them whether they currently have the virus.
Please note:  This article explains exactly what the NHS are getting: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/the-two-tests-that-will-help-to-predict-spread-of-covid-19

Offline Statto

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #633 on: March 30, 2020, 09:23:28 AM »
At long last antigen tests will be available from next week to front line NHS staff which will help to show previous episodes of coronavirus and indicate presence of relevant antibodies. 

The antigen test isn't the antibodies test. This is the one that just tells them whether they currently have the virus.
Please note:  This article explains exactly what the NHS are getting: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/the-two-tests-that-will-help-to-predict-spread-of-covid-19
Indeed. The antigen test. Not the antibodies test.

Offline toshes mate

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #634 on: March 30, 2020, 10:06:51 AM »
At long last antigen tests will be available from next week to front line NHS staff which will help to show previous episodes of coronavirus and indicate presence of relevant antibodies. 

The antigen test isn't the antibodies test. This is the one that just tells them whether they currently have the virus.
Please note:  This article explains exactly what the NHS are getting: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/the-two-tests-that-will-help-to-predict-spread-of-covid-19
Indeed. The antigen test. Not the antibodies test.
Per article the antibodies test is part of the Oxford project. 


Offline Sgt Fulham

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #635 on: April 01, 2020, 09:29:32 AM »
Re. above, Southcoastffc: interesting and useful.  Thank you.

There is a lot of good advice there, but alarm bells rang when it was stated that DNA is a protein. There is also little evidence that heat has any real impact on the virus. Think of all the hot places it is going wild (Italy, Australia, Spain).

Without fact checking the rest it looks good at first sight. Stay safe everyone.

Offline Fulham 442

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #636 on: April 01, 2020, 11:11:27 AM »
Question, how are any of you expats doing in Spain? 
We're in Estepona, between Gibraltar and Malaga.  We're doing okay as we have been far less affected by the virus than the Madrid region.  Lockdown has been in force since 16th March and is strictly adhered to as we are subject to massive fines if we are outside without good reason ie grocery shopping, going to the pharmacy, a hospital appointment, walking a dog, but only in the vicinity of the house, and helping an elderly or sick relative/friend or for work.  We cannot go out together either.  All shops are closed except for those mentioned and also communications stores but they are on reduced hours.  Garages are also open for petrol and also selling gas canisters which are used widely here for cooking and heating.  Some building work is still going on and all the gardeners and street cleaners are still working.  We can still get deliveries as we are not in a "red" zone, in fact we have just had a paint delivery!  All fresh food is plentiful and we have no problem getting pasta, rice or toilet rolls!  There is a sense that we are all in this together, which leads to a calm acceptance which is helpful.  Unfortunately we have had a lot of rain lately so sincerely hoping that ends soon.  Like a lot of houses in the Old Town Centre we have no garden, just a terrace, and when the sun does pop out it is nice to get up there for some fresh air.  Our lockdown was due to end on the 30th March but was extended to April 11th.  Fingers crossed it does!  First thing we will do is head for the beach, together with our dog!

Offline Southcoastffc

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #637 on: April 01, 2020, 05:48:35 PM »
Re. above, Southcoastffc: interesting and useful.  Thank you.

There is a lot of good advice there, but alarm bells rang when it was stated that DNA is a protein. There is also little evidence that heat has any real impact on the virus. Think of all the hot places it is going wild (Italy, Australia, Spain).

Without fact checking the rest it looks good at first sight. Stay safe everyone.
Without wishing to bat things to and fro, (there are others who will do that until Kingdom come!) the piece I posted doesn't actually say that DNA is a protein; and Northern Italy and Barcelona are not hot at this time of year, indeed Milan was around 6 degrees Celsius when things took off.  I can't comment about Australia.


Offline SP

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #638 on: April 04, 2020, 09:31:40 PM »
Watched a clip of the wet market in Wuhan, absolutely disgusting, I don't now why they allow these places to function like this?

Offline Fulham 442

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #639 on: April 04, 2020, 10:19:45 PM »
Watched a clip of the wet market in Wuhan, absolutely disgusting, I don't now why they allow these places to function like this?
Wouldn't be able to watch anything on the subject. I wouldn't be able to sleep.