Coronavirus Thread / New / Old / Merged

[Logicalman]

Can you believe it. Flew back from Maldives yesterday ( went on 8 March before anything became serious here ) and the stewardesses had to hide toilet rolls because people on board were pinching them.

people want to feel they are in control and they think that toilet rolls gives that to the. Went to the Co-op last night to get some milk and there were toilet rolls there - because there isnt a shortage of them..only clowns hoarding them.

Dustmen reporting more vegetables being thrown away as people had over-bought on fresh.

Hopefully they've gone broke by now so give the others a chance to buy stuff.

[The Rock]

Golf courses to close

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/52018267

"Sir, yes, you over there, by yourself on the 13th hole without another human in sight for a mile, please leave the course and practice social distancing."

Solid advice.

[Statto]

Controls in Italy beginning to work

Day-on-day increase in new cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

Number of deaths remains eratic because those figures are affected by a few more weeks' lag

So of course the BBC headline is "BREAKING Huge jump in Italy death toll" just in case anyone is tempted to stop feeling scared sh1tless for a moment... and then a small admission in the small print at the end that "It does appear as though the number of new cases is slowing down, however"

[clemattlee]

I find this website quite informative looks like they properly check the figures
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[davew]

I find this website quite informative looks like they properly check the figures
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Interesting chart, thanks for that. To me what I think it confirms is (excluding China who were testing more people, not just those turning up/admitted to hospital) if you are in a country e.g here, Italy, Spain, Germany and quite a few others who seem to be just testing people at the hospitals, there is almost a 50:50 chance that you will survive, the amount of active cases compared to total cases is staggering except China. The recovery time period must be 2 to 3 weeks, if you recover?

[davew]

Forget joining the rush to come to Cornwall, Scotland etc., Russia seems the place to go to (lol).

[MayoDomo]

Stay safe everyone. :)

[toshes mate]

I caught Matt Hancock welcoming back to the House of Commons an 'Honourable Friend' live on TV.   She had recovered from Covid-19 and Hancock followed his welcome with a remark that he was assured by informed opinion that she now had immunity from further infection or, at least, would not be infected again so soon after recovery.
 
In either of these cases I know of no expert who has made such a claim and if any have done so then it is surely of fundamental substance to us all.   

If this is the stuff of which supposedly responsible politicians are made of, then it is no wonder so many things have been misjudged in the UK's response to this virus. 

Is it not politicians who daily complain about not listening to fake news? 
All just In my honest opinion, of course.

[Statto]

I caught Matt Hancock welcoming back to the House of Commons an 'Honourable Friend' live on TV.   She had recovered from Covid-19 and Hancock followed his welcome with a remark that he was assured by informed opinion that she now had immunity from further infection or, at least, would not be infected again so soon after recovery.
 
In either of these cases I know of no expert who has made such a claim and if any have done so then it is surely of fundamental substance to us all.   

If this is the stuff of which supposedly responsible politicians are made of, then it is no wonder so many things have been misjudged in the UK's response to this virus. 

Is it not politicians who daily complain about not listening to fake news? 
All just In my honest opinion, of course.

Hmmm... I've read and heard plenty of well-qualified experts (and no I'm not talking about those silly Facebook posts telling people to sip water every 15 minutes and all that nonsense) saying regularly and consistently that, whilst further research is required, most people who've had the virus are likely to be immune for at least a short while.

[toshes mate]

"Immune for at least a short while"means what in terms of seconds, minutes, hours, days.  It's a throwaway line that no scientist would wish to be associated with.

[Statto]

"Immune for at least a short while"means what in terms of seconds, minutes, hours, days.  It's a throwaway line that no scientist would wish to be associated with.

Months. Many months. Or longer. See for example Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Adviser last week: "Even in diseases which do not have long-lasting immunity there's usually a short period of immunity and that's enough for a season, an epidemic in the initial phases."

The whole search for a vaccine is relying on the idea that having the virus makes you immune, at least for a season, because that's how vaccines work.

[Neil D]

Controls in Italy beginning to work

So of course the BBC headline is "BREAKING Huge jump in Italy death toll" just in case anyone is tempted to stop feeling scared sh1tless for a moment... and then a small admission in the small print at the end that "It does appear as though the number of new cases is slowing down, however"

You're right.  Lazy journo not willing to analyse the data properly.

[Dixie]

It will be Tokyo Olympics 2021 as a decision is finally made.  Probably the only sensible route given the absolute dissaray there has been in the qualifying competitions that have been recently abandoned, but it is still sad to see so much being lost to a virus that has been allowed to get out of control rather than being under control from day one (whenever that may have been).  I do hope that the real lesson learned for the future is for all nations to realise how seemingly unpredictable these outbreaks can be, and how predictable it is that the moment you lose the ability to track a virus you endanger far too many people which causes panic, selfishness and ever greater risk.   

I especially like this history and summary of epidemics by Victor Davis Hanson using statistics but ending up with how this story is all about humility and the great gifts it brings with it.

https://www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-pandemic-humility#.XnZErksn-Pc.twitter       

Interesting read...
I like the last sentence: Humility, not certainty—much less accusation and panic—should be the order of the day.

I have a bit of a problem with all the zealous preaching and name calling. I am complying with the Govt recommendations and yet these holier-than-thou people make me want to rebel!

[toshes mate]

Here is a most wonderful interactive tool to play with and perhaps understand the factors involved in coronavirus a little better. 

https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

And here is a rather startling article which has made rather clever use of this tool.  A good read especially for anybody confused about what is known about the pandemic and the virus causing it.  It is highly revealing and doesn't pull punches.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[toshes mate]

"Immune for at least a short while"means what in terms of seconds, minutes, hours, days.  It's a throwaway line that no scientist would wish to be associated with.

Months. Many months. Or longer. See for example Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Adviser last week: "Even in diseases which do not have long-lasting immunity there's usually a short period of immunity and that's enough for a season, an epidemic in the initial phases."

The whole search for a vaccine is relying on the idea that having the virus makes you immune, at least for a season, because that's how vaccines work.

You will have to do a hell of a lot better than that, Statto, to engage my interest in your perception.

[Tabby]

Controls in Italy beginning to work

So of course the BBC headline is "BREAKING Huge jump in Italy death toll" just in case anyone is tempted to stop feeling scared sh1tless for a moment... and then a small admission in the small print at the end that "It does appear as though the number of new cases is slowing down, however"

You're right.  Lazy journo not willing to analyse the data properly.

Should be mentioned that the Italian authorities are telling people to not get too excited by the numbers as they've also had a significant reduction in testing.

But if we look at numbers with no context they look ok I guess.

[Statto]

Controls in Italy beginning to work

So of course the BBC headline is "BREAKING Huge jump in Italy death toll" just in case anyone is tempted to stop feeling scared sh1tless for a moment... and then a small admission in the small print at the end that "It does appear as though the number of new cases is slowing down, however"

You're right.  Lazy journo not willing to analyse the data properly.

Should be mentioned that the Italian authorities are telling people to not get too excited by the numbers as they've also had a significant reduction in testing.

But if we look at numbers with no context they look ok I guess.

True, but my understanding was they switched from testing all suspected cases, to just testing those in hospital with severe symptoms, just as we did in the UK. That would explain a step down in numbers from one particular day, but not a gradual decline over several weeks. 

Also FWIW, from what I've read, the actual number of cases in Italy is presumed to somewhere between 10x and 100x the identified cases. So whereas the official number of cases in Italy is around 70,000, the actual number will be more like 700,000 or even 7 million. There are even some studies this week suggesting there could be 20 million cases in the UK already. We just don't know, until they roll-out the antibodies test, what proportion of cases are symptomless or very mild. But in any cases, the numbers presenting at hospital with severe symptoms would still be proportionate to the total number of cases.

[toshes mate]

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/

Some interesting views that run counter to much current political decision making.

[Neil D]

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/

Some interesting views that run counter to much current political decision making.

What is 'off-guardian' precisely?

[Neil D]

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/

Some interesting views that run counter to much current political decision making.

What is 'off-guardian' precisely?

Let me answer my own question:
OffGuardian was launched in February 2015 and takes its name from the fact its founders had all been censored on and/or banned from the Guardian's 'Comment is Free' sections.

Enough said.