News:

Use a VPN to stream games Safely and Securely 🔒
A Virtual Private Network can also allow you to
watch games Not being broadcast in the UK For
more Information and how to Sign Up go to
https://go.nordvpn.net/SH4FE

Main Menu


Coronavirus Thread / New / Old / Merged

Started by I Ronic, March 01, 2020, 11:35:15 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

toshes mate

Quote from: Ged on March 27, 2020, 12:31:27 PM
From Wiki
His comments on the COVID 19 pandemic caused criticism from German scientists. Various German media examined Wodarg's claims for accuracy and concluded that his statements would largely contradict the verifiable facts, some statements were neither refutable nor verifiable, but on closer examination proved to be misleading. It would mix up facts that had nothing to do with each other.

Transparency International Germany, on whose board of directors Wodarg is on, distanced itself from his statements on 17 March 2020: "Transparency International Germany rejects the sweeping criticism of board member Dr Wolfgang Wodarg of the government measures to protect the population from the corona virus. Wolfgang Wodarg is speaking on this matter as a private individual and not in his capacity as a member of the Management Board." On March 25, 2020, the board decided to suspend his membership in the association "until further notice", which means that Wodarg can no longer exercise any functions on the board or as head of the health working group for the time being. The Board of Directors will commission an independent committee to look into Wodarg's statements about the Conora virus and to determine whether his behaviour has harmed the interests of Transparency International Germany.
A) Wiki has poor form on a number of subjects and should not be regarded as reliable without a lot of double checking done away from it.  It has been highly criticised by scientists in many groups.

B) The doctor's views are by no means unique among epidemiological professionals who say that figures being recorded by the minute on mass media suggest an accuracy that is just not supportable for coronavirus episodes of any kind, since current tests are not reliable to the known standards required and are not even in place (or even exist in practical terms) for things like previous episodes of coronavirus type infections.

C) The history of outbreaks since epidemiology (there was a Royal Institute Lecture on this in 2018?) became an important science has often noted that getting meaningful data has been very difficult to achieve for influenza because there is much competition to be first to identify a new type.  This is what may have happened in China last year and if you read enough stuff you can begin to understand why Covid-19 may not eventually be described as a worse case episode.

D) These days there seems to always be a problem when people oppose consensus views and yet that opposition is precisely the way science has always evolved.  Go figure.


fulhamben

Quote from: toshes mate on March 27, 2020, 12:51:55 PM
Quote from: Ged on March 27, 2020, 12:31:27 PM
From Wiki
His comments on the COVID 19 pandemic caused criticism from German scientists. Various German media examined Wodarg's claims for accuracy and concluded that his statements would largely contradict the verifiable facts, some statements were neither refutable nor verifiable, but on closer examination proved to be misleading. It would mix up facts that had nothing to do with each other.

Transparency International Germany, on whose board of directors Wodarg is on, distanced itself from his statements on 17 March 2020: "Transparency International Germany rejects the sweeping criticism of board member Dr Wolfgang Wodarg of the government measures to protect the population from the corona virus. Wolfgang Wodarg is speaking on this matter as a private individual and not in his capacity as a member of the Management Board." On March 25, 2020, the board decided to suspend his membership in the association "until further notice", which means that Wodarg can no longer exercise any functions on the board or as head of the health working group for the time being. The Board of Directors will commission an independent committee to look into Wodarg's statements about the Conora virus and to determine whether his behaviour has harmed the interests of Transparency International Germany.
A) Wiki has poor form on a number of subjects and should not be regarded as reliable without a lot of double checking done away from it.  It has been highly criticised by scientists in many groups.

B) The doctor's views are by no means unique among epidemiological professionals who say that figures being recorded by the minute on mass media suggest an accuracy that is just not supportable for coronavirus episodes of any kind, since current tests are not reliable to the known standards required and are not even in place (or even exist in practical terms) for things like previous episodes of coronavirus type infections.

C) The history of outbreaks since epidemiology (there was a Royal Institute Lecture on this in 2018?) became an important science has often noted that getting meaningful data has been very difficult to achieve for influenza because there is much competition to be first to identify a new type.  This is what may have happened in China last year and if you read enough stuff you can begin to understand why Covid-19 may not eventually be described as a worse case episode.

D) These days there seems to always be a problem when people oppose consensus views and yet that opposition is precisely the way science has always evolved.  Go figure.


yep we would all be flat earthers if it wasn't for the likes of pythagorus and Plato who were ridiculed for their ludicrous views 
CHRIS MARTIN IS SO BAD,  WE NOW PRAISE HIM FOR MAKING A RUN.

Ged

Quote from: fulhamben on March 27, 2020, 12:59:20 PM
Quote from: toshes mate on March 27, 2020, 12:51:55 PM
Quote from: Ged on March 27, 2020, 12:31:27 PM
From Wiki
His comments on the COVID 19 pandemic caused criticism from German scientists. Various German media examined Wodarg's claims for accuracy and concluded that his statements would largely contradict the verifiable facts, some statements were neither refutable nor verifiable, but on closer examination proved to be misleading. It would mix up facts that had nothing to do with each other.

Transparency International Germany, on whose board of directors Wodarg is on, distanced itself from his statements on 17 March 2020: "Transparency International Germany rejects the sweeping criticism of board member Dr Wolfgang Wodarg of the government measures to protect the population from the corona virus. Wolfgang Wodarg is speaking on this matter as a private individual and not in his capacity as a member of the Management Board." On March 25, 2020, the board decided to suspend his membership in the association "until further notice", which means that Wodarg can no longer exercise any functions on the board or as head of the health working group for the time being. The Board of Directors will commission an independent committee to look into Wodarg's statements about the Conora virus and to determine whether his behaviour has harmed the interests of Transparency International Germany.
A) Wiki has poor form on a number of subjects and should not be regarded as reliable without a lot of double checking done away from it.  It has been highly criticised by scientists in many groups.

B) The doctor's views are by no means unique among epidemiological professionals who say that figures being recorded by the minute on mass media suggest an accuracy that is just not supportable for coronavirus episodes of any kind, since current tests are not reliable to the known standards required and are not even in place (or even exist in practical terms) for things like previous episodes of coronavirus type infections.

C) The history of outbreaks since epidemiology (there was a Royal Institute Lecture on this in 2018?) became an important science has often noted that getting meaningful data has been very difficult to achieve for influenza because there is much competition to be first to identify a new type.  This is what may have happened in China last year and if you read enough stuff you can begin to understand why Covid-19 may not eventually be described as a worse case episode.

D) These days there seems to always be a problem when people oppose consensus views and yet that opposition is precisely the way science has always evolved.  Go figure.


yep we would all be flat earthers if it wasn't for the likes of pythagorus and Plato who were ridiculed for their ludicrous views 
Plato and Pythagoras were scholars and philosophers who studied the facts unlike flat earthers who believed in superstition
Its science and facts that mater but of course we can never be sure of anything but ask yourself why you believe one or a few people who the scientific community disown


ALG01

Quote from: Ged on March 27, 2020, 12:40:44 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on March 27, 2020, 12:33:39 PM
Quote from: Twig on March 27, 2020, 11:58:19 AM
Quote from: Statto on March 25, 2020, 06:19:11 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 24, 2020, 05:28:09 PM
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy

Am I right in thinking these numbers are on the rise again today?
the numbers are always pretty much on the rise, it's just they use percentages instead.
If you have 1000 infected and 100 more get infected today you say 10% rise
But if you have 10,000 infected and 900 new cases today you can say that it's dropped to 9%.  It's a stupid way of doing it if you ask me
Thats right i if you start at say 100 a 22.8% rise would mean 128 new people got infected and if you have reached 500 a 8.3% rise would mean 541 new people got infected even a 1% increase is bad news

The number that counts and to watch for is the rate iof infection and I have been keeping a spreadsheet. I used a four day period when I started because it seemed to me that should just about take care of anomolies in reporting, Like last Sunday when there was a drop in many european countires for no apparent reason other than it was Sunday.

In italy the four day infection rate starting 10th March is as follows:-
2.19, 2.08, 1.69, 1.66, and yesterday 1.36 (which i think is a bit low).
What this suggests is the measures put in place a few weeks ago and more recently rampped up is that Italy seems to be turning a corner in a good way. BUT the absolute numbers are still horrible and shooting up. With the meaningful reducing infection rate, the percentage death rate also increases because the death rate presumably relates to what was happening a fortnight to 7 days earlier.

In the UK we are about two weeks behind Italy and it broadly fits and using the four day priniple starting 17th March we ahave a infection rate of 2.44, 2.57 and on Wednesday 1.9. If on sunday the rate continues to fall then it would be an encouraging sign that we are on the right lines.

Infection rate? The current number of total reported cases/the figure four days earlier.
I am using a web site that has all the major countries broken down and I believe it is as like for like as I can get it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It is my guess that the numbers will become increasingly frightening even when we are more obviously on the road to recovery. But the infection rate is the only figure that shows if the measures are working, the death rate just provides data on how deadly the virus is.

toshes mate

Quote from: Ged on March 27, 2020, 01:28:40 PM
Plato and Pythagoras were scholars and philosophers who studied the facts unlike flat earthers who believed in superstition
Its science and facts that mater but of course we can never be sure of anything but ask yourself why you believe one or a few people who the scientific community disown
There is whole list of them but just two example scientists in the strict meaning of the word - Darwin and Galileo - should suffice.

Or you may want to consider this which you would be hard put to find in the MSM consensus:

Public Health England issued a policy statement on 19/3/2020 as follows"Covid-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease (HCID)."

Covid-19 was given HCID status as an interim recommendation in January 2020.

Is this because it is less infectious than first appearances suggested, or that it leads to less consequences than they thought in January?  Why wasn't this headline news ahead of the PM's lockdown announcement?  Or is PHE guilty of breaking the required narrative?

Just gentle questions you may wish to ask yourself before the wagon is moving too quickly for you to get off of it.

Neil D

Quote from: ALG01 on March 27, 2020, 01:31:24 PM

It is my guess that the numbers will become increasingly frightening even when we are more obviously on the road to recovery. But the infection rate is the only figure that shows if the measures are working, the death rate just provides data on how deadly the virus is.

That makes sense.


toshes mate

This is from a new study from CEBM, Oxford and may help people wanting to work out their own statistics from available sources (John Hopkins is good).  This is their global analysis.

"Updated: 26th March: Estimating COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates (CFR) and Infection Rate Fatality (IFR)

The Infection Rate Fatality (IFR) differs from the CFR in that aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group). if tested, this group would be counted as infected and at least temporarily be immune.

Our current best assumption, as of the 22nd March, is the IFR is approximate 0.29% (95% CI, 0.25 to 0.33)."

Mince n Tatties

Its getting really depressing reading all these different theories and so and statts,as though being shut up isn't bad enough.
Go do a feckin Jigsaw that'll get your mind off it😵

Statto

#608
Quote from: fulhamben on March 27, 2020, 12:33:39 PM
Quote from: Twig on March 27, 2020, 11:58:19 AM
Quote from: Statto on March 25, 2020, 06:19:11 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 24, 2020, 05:28:09 PM
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy

Am I right in thinking these numbers are on the rise again today?
the numbers are always pretty much on the rise, it's just they use percentages instead.
If you have 1000 infected and 100 more get infected today you say 10% rise
But if you have 10,000 infected and 900 new cases today you can say that it's dropped to 9%.  It's a stupid way of doing it if you ask me

The number was mildly higher yesterday, 8.3%, but still very firmly on a downward trend.

I appreciate looking at the percentages, ie the infection rate, may seem "stupid" to those only thinking about things very casually or simplistically, and only looking at the current situation. Someone with the intellect of say, a young child or dog, may struggle to think more than a few minutes ahead of their present situation. But for the rest of us, and certainly if you look at government policy and the scientists' analyses, the focus is on the rate of infection and how that might pan out over the coming weeks.

So if, for example, a country had 100,000 cumulative infections today, but that number was only increasing by 1% day-on-day, then 3 months from now they'd have about 250,000 infections, which may be manageable. If the rate of infection was say 8%, then in 3 months the number of infected would be 150 million, which is obviously catastrophic. If it was around 20%, it would be equally catastrophic, but after only 1 month.   


Statto

Quote from: Mince n Tatties on March 27, 2020, 02:53:48 PM
Its getting really depressing reading all these different theories and so and statts,as though being shut up isn't bad enough.
Go do a feckin Jigsaw that'll get your mind off it😵

You could always post something interesting to take our minds off it.
Unlikely I know, but there's a first time for everything.

Mince n Tatties

Quote from: Statto on March 27, 2020, 03:00:11 PM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on March 27, 2020, 02:53:48 PM
Its getting really depressing reading all these different theories and so and statts,as though being shut up isn't bad enough.
Go do a feckin Jigsaw that'll get your mind off it😵

You could always post something interesting to take our minds off it.
Unlikely I know, but there's a first time for everything.

You and your other half posting all this poo theories and so on,you must think all of us on here are stupid and don't know what's going on...Patronising pricks.

fulhamben

Quote from: Statto on March 27, 2020, 02:59:04 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on March 27, 2020, 12:33:39 PM
Quote from: Twig on March 27, 2020, 11:58:19 AM
Quote from: Statto on March 25, 2020, 06:19:11 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 24, 2020, 05:28:09 PM
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy

Am I right in thinking these numbers are on the rise again today?
the numbers are always pretty much on the rise, it's just they use percentages instead.
If you have 1000 infected and 100 more get infected today you say 10% rise
But if you have 10,000 infected and 900 new cases today you can say that it's dropped to 9%.  It's a stupid way of doing it if you ask me

The number was mildly higher yesterday, 8.3%, but still very firmly on a downward trend.

I appreciate looking at the percentages, ie the infection rate, may seem "stupid" to those only thinking about things very casually or simplistically, and only looking at the current situation. Someone with the intellect of say, a young child or dog, may struggle to think more than a few minutes ahead of their present situation. But for the rest of us, and certainly if you look at government policy and the scientists' analyses, the focus is on the rate of infection and how that might pan out over the coming weeks.

So if, for example, a country had 100,000 cumulative infections today, but that number was only increasing by 1% day-on-day, then 3 months from now they'd have about 250,000 infections, which may be manageable. If the rate of infection was say 8%, then in 3 months the number of infected would be 150 million, which is obviously catastrophic. If it was around 20%, it would be equally catastrophic, but after only 1 month.   
but only an idiot would read anything into the infection rate, as Everyman with a brain cell knows, that we are not testing the vast majority of the people with symptoms. So the infection rate stats gathered from the numbers released by the government  is about as useful as a chocolate tea pot.
CHRIS MARTIN IS SO BAD,  WE NOW PRAISE HIM FOR MAKING A RUN.


Statto

Quote from: fulhamben on March 27, 2020, 03:18:45 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 27, 2020, 02:59:04 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on March 27, 2020, 12:33:39 PM
Quote from: Twig on March 27, 2020, 11:58:19 AM
Quote from: Statto on March 25, 2020, 06:19:11 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 24, 2020, 05:28:09 PM
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy

Am I right in thinking these numbers are on the rise again today?
the numbers are always pretty much on the rise, it's just they use percentages instead.
If you have 1000 infected and 100 more get infected today you say 10% rise
But if you have 10,000 infected and 900 new cases today you can say that it's dropped to 9%.  It's a stupid way of doing it if you ask me

The number was mildly higher yesterday, 8.3%, but still very firmly on a downward trend.

I appreciate looking at the percentages, ie the infection rate, may seem "stupid" to those only thinking about things very casually or simplistically, and only looking at the current situation. Someone with the intellect of say, a young child or dog, may struggle to think more than a few minutes ahead of their present situation. But for the rest of us, and certainly if you look at government policy and the scientists' analyses, the focus is on the rate of infection and how that might pan out over the coming weeks.

So if, for example, a country had 100,000 cumulative infections today, but that number was only increasing by 1% day-on-day, then 3 months from now they'd have about 250,000 infections, which may be manageable. If the rate of infection was say 8%, then in 3 months the number of infected would be 150 million, which is obviously catastrophic. If it was around 20%, it would be equally catastrophic, but after only 1 month.   
but only an idiot would read anything into the infection rate, as Everyman with a brain cell knows, that we are not testing the vast majority of the people with symptoms. So the infection rate stats gathered from the numbers released by the government  is about as useful as a chocolate tea pot.
So you don't think there's any correlation between the total number infected and the number of people turning up at hospital with severe symptoms?

Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: Mince n Tatties on March 27, 2020, 03:15:31 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 27, 2020, 03:00:11 PM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on March 27, 2020, 02:53:48 PM
Its getting really depressing reading all these different theories and so and statts,as though being shut up isn't bad enough.
Go do a feckin Jigsaw that'll get your mind off it😵

You could always post something interesting to take our minds off it.
Unlikely I know, but there's a first time for everything.

You and your other half posting all this poo theories and so on,you must think all of us on here are stupid and don't know what's going on...Patronising pricks.

Hmm interesting theory mince, and I share your suspicions, and on that basis I have instructed my Crack Investigations Unit to commence enquires as whether we have a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde on board ship, one suspect posing as two suspects.
As they say " no smoke without fire " said the Arsonist to the Fireman. "
I believe most prosecutions succeed due to DNA these days, we have come along way since the days of the Red Hot Poker and The Rack. 
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

ALG01

Quote from: fulhamben on March 27, 2020, 03:18:45 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 27, 2020, 02:59:04 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on March 27, 2020, 12:33:39 PM
Quote from: Twig on March 27, 2020, 11:58:19 AM
Quote from: Statto on March 25, 2020, 06:19:11 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 24, 2020, 05:28:09 PM
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy

Am I right in thinking these numbers are on the rise again today?
the numbers are always pretty much on the rise, it's just they use percentages instead.
If you have 1000 infected and 100 more get infected today you say 10% rise
But if you have 10,000 infected and 900 new cases today you can say that it's dropped to 9%.  It's a stupid way of doing it if you ask me

The number was mildly higher yesterday, 8.3%, but still very firmly on a downward trend.

I appreciate looking at the percentages, ie the infection rate, may seem "stupid" to those only thinking about things very casually or simplistically, and only looking at the current situation. Someone with the intellect of say, a young child or dog, may struggle to think more than a few minutes ahead of their present situation. But for the rest of us, and certainly if you look at government policy and the scientists' analyses, the focus is on the rate of infection and how that might pan out over the coming weeks.

So if, for example, a country had 100,000 cumulative infections today, but that number was only increasing by 1% day-on-day, then 3 months from now they'd have about 250,000 infections, which may be manageable. If the rate of infection was say 8%, then in 3 months the number of infected would be 150 million, which is obviously catastrophic. If it was around 20%, it would be equally catastrophic, but after only 1 month.   
but only an idiot would read anything into the infection rate, as Everyman with a brain cell knows, that we are not testing the vast majority of the people with symptoms. So the infection rate stats gathered from the numbers released by the government  is about as useful as a chocolate tea pot.

Speaking as an idiot.... as long as you are measuring in a relatively consistent manner and we are, then you can draw a vast amount of information. you can tell if the trend is up or down and how quickly it is moving in one direction or another. And as you seem to be a learned scholar of sampling theory i think you will know the numbers they are measuring mean the figures are just about meaningful and actually, if you check other countries results too as I do you can see in many countries a corelation developing... but what would I know I am just an idiot drinking from a chocolate teapot.


Statto

Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on March 27, 2020, 03:31:24 PM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on March 27, 2020, 03:15:31 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 27, 2020, 03:00:11 PM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on March 27, 2020, 02:53:48 PM
Its getting really depressing reading all these different theories and so and statts,as though being shut up isn't bad enough.
Go do a feckin Jigsaw that'll get your mind off it😵

You could always post something interesting to take our minds off it.
Unlikely I know, but there's a first time for everything.

You and your other half posting all this poo theories and so on,you must think all of us on here are stupid and don't know what's going on...Patronising pricks.

Hmm interesting theory mince, and I share your suspicions, and on that basis I have instructed my Crack Investigations Unit to commence enquires as whether we have a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde on board ship, one suspect posing as two suspects.
As they say " no smoke without fire " said the Arsonist to the Fireman. "
I believe most prosecutions succeed due to DNA these days, we have come along way since the days of the Red Hot Poker and The Rack. 
I have my own theory about you and Mince. The only two posters on here who think the Hilda jokes are funny... always on at the same time... always posting to back each other up....

Very suspicious....

fulhamben

Quote from: ALG01 on March 27, 2020, 03:31:45 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on March 27, 2020, 03:18:45 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 27, 2020, 02:59:04 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on March 27, 2020, 12:33:39 PM
Quote from: Twig on March 27, 2020, 11:58:19 AM
Quote from: Statto on March 25, 2020, 06:19:11 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 24, 2020, 05:28:09 PM
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy

Am I right in thinking these numbers are on the rise again today?
the numbers are always pretty much on the rise, it's just they use percentages instead.
If you have 1000 infected and 100 more get infected today you say 10% rise
But if you have 10,000 infected and 900 new cases today you can say that it's dropped to 9%.  It's a stupid way of doing it if you ask me

The number was mildly higher yesterday, 8.3%, but still very firmly on a downward trend.

I appreciate looking at the percentages, ie the infection rate, may seem "stupid" to those only thinking about things very casually or simplistically, and only looking at the current situation. Someone with the intellect of say, a young child or dog, may struggle to think more than a few minutes ahead of their present situation. But for the rest of us, and certainly if you look at government policy and the scientists' analyses, the focus is on the rate of infection and how that might pan out over the coming weeks.

So if, for example, a country had 100,000 cumulative infections today, but that number was only increasing by 1% day-on-day, then 3 months from now they'd have about 250,000 infections, which may be manageable. If the rate of infection was say 8%, then in 3 months the number of infected would be 150 million, which is obviously catastrophic. If it was around 20%, it would be equally catastrophic, but after only 1 month.   
but only an idiot would read anything into the infection rate, as Everyman with a brain cell knows, that we are not testing the vast majority of the people with symptoms. So the infection rate stats gathered from the numbers released by the government  is about as useful as a chocolate tea pot.

Speaking as an idiot.... as long as you are measuring in a relatively consistent manner and we are, then you can draw a vast amount of information. you can tell if the trend is up or down and how quickly it is moving in one direction or another. And as you seem to be a learned scholar of sampling theory i think you will know the numbers they are measuring mean the figures are just about meaningful and actually, if you check other countries results too as I do you can see in many countries a corelation developing... but what would I know I am just an idiot drinking from a chocolate teapot.
we are measuring it on the very small amount of people who have become so unwell that they have to be omitted to hospital for Treatment and the test. It tells us absolutely sod all about the infection rate as the overwhelming majority will recover at home and will never be recorded.
CHRIS MARTIN IS SO BAD,  WE NOW PRAISE HIM FOR MAKING A RUN.

Logicalman

I guess one issue with reviewing the stats on all this is that different countries are using different methods that make up the 'confirmed cases' number.
The US is, perhaps, one of the best examples for this. Inconsistent testing week-on-week makes any degree of infection rate rise, or fall, not a true indication of the rise, or fall, of the actual rate.
This then directly affects the mortality rate stats, as, unless every death is investigated as to whether the actual cause of death could be attributed to the virus, or whether the person did, or did not, have the virus present at death, then again those figures are biased one way or the other I would think.

So, In conclusion, the stats we have are the best we have, and so are the only indicator being used by those making the decisions that affect the rest of us. Anything else might well be supposition on the part of those that are intent on assisting.
Logical is just in the name - don't expect it has anything to do with my thought process, because I AM the man who sold the world.


toshes mate

Exactly as you say Logicalman.

The best place to look is at past epidemics/pandemics and see what a big difference there is in the conclusion as compared to the intermediate reporting.

Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: Statto on March 27, 2020, 03:33:29 PM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on March 27, 2020, 03:31:24 PM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on March 27, 2020, 03:15:31 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 27, 2020, 03:00:11 PM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on March 27, 2020, 02:53:48 PM
Its getting really depressing reading all these different theories and so and statts,as though being shut up isn't bad enough.
Go do a feckin Jigsaw that'll get your mind off it😵

You could always post something interesting to take our minds off it.
Unlikely I know, but there's a first time for everything.

You and your other half posting all this poo theories and so on,you must think all of us on here are stupid and don't know what's going on...Patronising pricks.

Hmm interesting theory mince, and I share your suspicions, and on that basis I have instructed my Crack Investigations Unit to commence enquires as whether we have a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde on board ship, one suspect posing as two suspects.
As they say " no smoke without fire " said the Arsonist to the Fireman. "
I believe most prosecutions succeed due to DNA these days, we have come along way since the days of the Red Hot Poker and The Rack. 
I have my own theory about you and Mince. The only two posters on here who think the Hilda jokes are funny... always on at the same time... always posting to back each other up....

Very suspicious....

Yes we are very suspicious, very suspicious about condescending and pompous dudes like you posing as two people, at least mince and I were separated at birth. Also leave Hilda out of this, have you seen the size of her knuckles, and since when do you speak for everyone else.
Its time you reversed that sense of humour bi pass operation you had a very long time ago, you make the Grim Reaper sound funny. 
I know you think you are the font of all knowledge, but always try and remember that when your house is on fire, do not reach for the petrol can.
One last piece of philosophy, " he who feeds the crocodile the most, does so in the hope he will be the last to be eaten.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.