Sunday Fulham Stuff - 03/05/20...

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Championship: Experts at University of Reading predict the 'final table'

Leeds and West Brom have been battling it out at the top for much of the season

Saturday was meant to be the final day of the Championship season, yet with elite football suspended because of the coronavirus pandemic there are still nine games left to play - and no conclusion in sight.

So... what should have been happening this weekend?

Would Leeds United and West Bromwich Albion fans have been celebrating promotion to the top flight? Would Barnsley and Luton Town supporters be preparing themselves for a return to League One?

The short answer is we don't know, but here at BBC Sport - with the help of the Department of Economics at the University of Reading - we've had a go at trying to predict what might have happened.

How have we done it?


Professor James Reade and his team in Reading have employed the same methods they use to forecast things like inflation or gross domestic product (GDP) to predict the results of the 108 games left in the Championship.

"We look at all the scorelines in the history of football essentially, and that gives us a sense of how likely a team is to score zero, one, two, three, four goals and so on," Professor Reade tells BBC Sport.

"You look back at previous matches and say when a weaker team was playing a stronger team, how many will they have scored if it was this point in the season, if this had just happened, and so on. What that gives us for each team and each match is an expected number of goals."

Professor Reade then uses this expected number of goals to work out the likelihood of either side winning a particular game and runs the model for the rest of the matches in the season - and then repeats it 10,000 times just to be sure.

"It's a bit like playing a computer game, but we do it lots and lots of times, as the more times you do it the more you get a sense of all the kinds of quirky different realities that might have happened - but also what was most likely to happen," he explains.

"What we're saying is 'imagine there were these 10,000 different realities, here's how often in these 10,000 different realities this thing would have happened'."

No big surprises for the title


In Professor Reade's 10,000 simulations, Leeds United won the title 54.8% of the time and finished second 35.1%, meaning their chances of automatic promotion were just under 90%.

West Bromwich Albion were likely to finish second at 43.9%, while they would top the table 39.6% of the time.

As you go down towards the middle of the division so the percentages drop as there are more chances that a side could finish higher or lower.

According to the statistics Fulham would stay third, Brentford fourth and Nottingham Forest fifth.

But the simulations have thrown up a surprise for the remaining play-off place. In-form Millwall were expected to jump up two spots to finish in sixth, pipping the likes of Preston North End and Bristol City.

Straight back down for bottom three


At the bottom, however, there are no such surprises. Barnsley finished last in just over half of the simulations and 85% of the time they go down, while Luton Town and Charlton Athletic joined them.

All three sides were promoted from League One last season and, unfortunately for them, all three were heading straight back down, according to the statistics.

The only big change saw Wigan Athletic jump up a couple of places at the expense of Huddersfield Town and Middlesbrough.

So how will the season actually end?
The official mood music from the EFL is that they are still hopeful the Championship can reach a conclusion, although we're no nearer to finding out how or when this could happen.

With all sides having played the same number of matches, using average points per game will not change the table at all - although that system does not take into account the matches still to be played.

For example, third-placed Fulham still have to play all of the other sides in the top five, a much harder task on paper than Nottingham Forest, whose only clash with another top-five team was that game against the Cottagers, which should have taken place at the City Ground on Good Friday.

Is our system better?
"There's a lot to be said for complicated models that hopefully better reflect reality," says Professor Reade.

"But equally there's a lot to be said for simple, transparent, straightforward solutions.

"The main difference relative to points per game, which assumes that every team has played an equally difficult set of matches so far, is this allows us to factor in the difficulty of those games that remain."

This system also uses Elo ratings, which allow you to alter how good a side is depending on their results. This means if a lower-ranked side gets wins over higher-ranked opponents, the lower-ranked side's increased form and ability can be factored in.

"Sport, as well as the general economy, is people making decisions, and those decisions have an affect on outcomes," adds Professor Reade.

"All these different decisions taken under pressure lead to particular outcomes occurring and that's the case in sport as well.

"A lot of the ways we think about things in economics are readily applicable in sport, and equally because sport is well measured.

"We have all the data about what goes on - we can observe as economists that this happened when that happened - and so we can put actual magnitude on it."



https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52507779

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Report: Newcastle contact Real Madrid for £62m striker, what Mitrovic has told him

Newcastle United are among the clubs reportedly interested in Real Madrid striker Luka Jovic.

According to 90min, Newcastle United are interested in signing Luka Jovic from Real Madrid in the summer transfer window.

The report has claimed that Newcastle have made contact with Spanish and European giants Madrid over the availability of the 22-year-old striker.

It has been claimed that Los Blancos will allow the Serbia international to leave on loan this summer, with Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United also interested in him.

Aleksandar Mitrovic influence

According to 90min, Aleksandar Mitrovic is a good friend of Jovic, with the two strikers playing for the Serbia national football team.

It has been reported that Fulham striker Mitrovic has sung the praises of his former club Newcastle to his compatriot.

Good signing for Newcastle United?

Jovic has struggled to make an impact at Madrid this season, having joined the Spanish giants from Eintracht Frankfurt in the summer of 2019 for a transfer fee reported by The Sun to be worth £62 million.

According to WhoScored, the youngster has scored two goals and provided one assist in 15 La Liga appearances for Madrid this season.

However, the striker has huge potential, and a loan deal for the 22-year-old amid the current economic uncertainty due to the global health crisis would be a smart move.

Football in England and Spain is suspended at the moment due to the global health crisis.



https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2020/05/02/report-newcastle-contact-real-madrid-for-62m-striker-what-mitrov/

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 Football Manager predicts Championship final day: WBA, Leeds promoted; Charlton stay up
Football Manager simulation sees West Brom and Leeds promoted to Premier League; Wigan, Barnsley and Luton relegated to Sky Bet League One

West Brom and Leeds were promoted to the Premier League despite contrasting fortunes on the final day of the 2019/20 Sky Bet Championship season.

A fifth-minute strike from Baggies midfielder Rekeem Harper proved enough to earn Slaven Bilic's side a 1-0 victory against QPR at The Hawthorns and pip Leeds - who had started the day two points clear - to the title.

That means West Brom return to the top flight at the second time of asking, having lost to Midlands rivals Aston Villa at the play-off stage last season.

For Marcelo Bielsa's men there will certainly be a twinge of disappointment, having been comfortably beaten 3-1 by Charlton in a game that saw them end with just nine players on the pitch.

Macauley Bonne dramatically boosted hopes of the Addicks' survival when he broke the deadlock seven minutes after the break and though a Mateusz Klich penalty restored parity, Helda Costa's dismissal with 14 minutes to play provided renewed hope for the visitors.

A second from Bonne added to that and after Luke Ayling was given his marching orders in the first minute of stoppage time, on-loan Man City midfielder Matt Smith netted a third, which saw the southeast Londoners retain their second-tier status on goal difference.

Final Championship table



Nottingham Forest had been in title contention prior to kick-off, but a 0-0 draw at home to a resolute Stoke side left them forced to settle for a play-off place, having finished just a point behind Leeds.

Bristol City joined them and secured the final top-six spot with a relatively straightforward 2-1 win over fellow promotion-chasers Preston at Ashton Gate.

A low-key first half sparked into life when Callum O'Dowda pounced from close-range after 49 minutes and Famara Diedhiou doubled the advantage shortly after.

Final Day results


Darnell Fisher halved the deficit to end a frantic 16-minute spell, but the hosts managed to hold on, despite a late onslaught.

Brentford marked their final league game at Griffin Park with a resounding 5-0 win over Barnsley, who were relegated back to Sky Bet League One as a result.

A Bryan Mbeumo strike and a penalty from Emiliano Marcondes had Thomas Frank's men ahead at the break, before Halil Dervisoglu, Marcus Forss and Julian Jeanvier rounded off the win for the play-off bound Bees.

That victory lifts them to fourth, above west London rivals Fulham, meaning the Cottagers will be forced to play the first leg of their play-off meeting at Craven Cottage, following their 2-2 draw with Wigan.

Kieffer Moore hit the opener for the Latics 11 minutes in, but Stefan Johansen responded inside 60 seconds to level the tie at the DW Stadium.

The pendulum swung back in the hosts' favour thanks to Dujon Sterling midway through the first half and though it looked as though they might stave off the looming threat of relegation, Neeskens Kebano hit a second-half equaliser to seal their fate.

Middlesbrough secured their place in next season's competition as a 0-0 draw with Sheffield Wednesday kept them from dropping into the relegation zone as Jonathan Woodgate's tumultuous first season in charge concluded.

Elsewhere, Scott Hogan scored twice as Birmingham beat Derby 3-1 at St Andrews, while Cardiff and Hull drew 1-1, with goals from Albert Adomah and Jackson Irvine.

Already relegated Luton ended the campaign with a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Blackburn, while Millwall and Huddersfield played out a goalless draw at The Den.



https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11688/11981741/football-manager-predicts-championship-final-day-wba-leeds-promoted-charlton-stay-up

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Former Bristol City star Bobby Decordova-Reid sets record straight over move from Cardiff City to Fulham

The Fulham striker has had an eventful couple of years in the transfer market


Bobby Reid celebrates scoring for Cardiff City (Image: Getty)

Former Bristol City star Bobby Decordova-Reid says he does not regret his move to Cardiff City.

The striker caused some controversy in 2018 when departing his boyhood club the Robins in favour of a move to their Severnside rivals, who had just been promoted to the Premier League.

Yet he left just 12 months later following Cardiff's relegation, opting to move to Fulham, who themselves had also just been relegated to the Championship.


Bristol City goalkeeper Niki Maenpaa takes on Fulham's Bobby Decordova-Reid (Image: Getty)

Decordova-Reid does not regret joining the Bluebirds, though, arguing it was an opportunity he could not turn down.

In an Instagram Q&A he said: "I kind of knew it was going to be my last season for Bristol City, I'd been there for so long that I thought it was time for a change and to challenge myself.

"Obviously everyone wants to play in the Premier League and I got a call from my agent saying they were interested.

"I thought it was a place where I was going to play games, unfortunately I didn't necessarily play as much as I wanted to, but it was close to home as well.

"It was perfect, Premier League football and close to home, I didn't have to go up north and could stay close to family.

"It was something I couldn't turn down and to this day I don't regret it."

The 27-year-old also set the record straight on his move to Craven Cottage, revealing he was told he could leave by then-Cardiff boss Neil Warnock.

He explained: "Let me take you back to Cardiff and how that happened because I don't think a lot of people know the story behind it and what happened.

"I know a few Cardiff fans are probably upset with how it happened but I remember we played Wigan in the first game of the season.

"Obviously I didn't play as much as I wanted to the season before in the Premier League, Neil Warnock was the manager at the time, it was down to him.

"I thought if he'd brought me in and wasn't going to play me then I didn't know if I could trust him the next season because the style of play he was playing didn't necessarily suit me.

"The reason I went there initially in the Premier League was because you kind of have to play some football to a certain extent in order to compete.

"In the Championship I wasn't too sure if they were going to revert back to how they'd played before so we had a talk in pre-season and he said he couldn't guarantee me to play games.

"My agent was looking elsewhere to see what he could find and there was interest from Fulham.

"I remember playing the first game for Cardiff, the window was still open, then I came in on the Monday and he told me I could go if I wanted to go.

"It was a massive surprise to me as I thought he might give me a chance to play. Once he said that I knew it wasn't going to work out there.

"I don't know what's been said from that side but I got told I could leave so I did."

Reid came through the Robins' youth system as a midfielder but netted 21 goals in 2017/18 after being transformed into a striker in a switch that revitalised his career.

The Jamaica international revealed that he initially had his doubts when City boss Lee Johnson suggested the position change.

He said: "I remember coming back in pre-season, Lee Johnson said he was looking to get another striker in.

"He had a checklist of things he wanted in a striker and he said I was ticking all the boxes, so would I want to play as striker?

"At first I didn't really want to do it because all I'd known was being a centre midfielder, so I didn't want to go up front, it not work out, then him have all his centre midfielders in position leaving me with nothing.

"So I wasn't too sure at the start but then we worked on it in pre-season, and during the friendlies I was scoring quite a bit and it took off from there.

"It clicked and I found the position that really suits me and works for me."



https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/former-bristol-city-star-bobby-4099807

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Bobby Decordova-Reid lifts the lid on Neil Warnock's role in his shock Cardiff City exit

The former Bluebirds forward has spoken out on his shock Cardiff City departure

Fulham striker Bobby Decordova-Reid has suggested that former boss Neil Warnock played an instrumental role in his Cardiff City exit last summer.

The 27-year old made a shock deadline day move to Fulham on the final day of the summer transfer window, just 12 months on from an £8.5m transfer from Severnside rivals Bristol City.

The move dismayed many fans, with Warnock himself suggesting at the time that he wanted to keep the player to "build a team around".

However, according to Bristol Live, the forward told an Instagram Q and A that it was made clear he could not be guaranteed first team action following Cardiff's relegation to the Championship, adding that he was eventually told he could leave the club.

Looking back on the move, he said: "Let me take you back to Cardiff and how that happened because I don't think a lot of people know the story behind it and what happened.

"I know a few Cardiff fans are probably upset with how it happened but I remember we played Wigan in the first game of the season.

"Obviously I didn't play as much as I wanted to the season before in the Premier League, Neil Warnock was the manager at the time, it was down to him.

"I thought if he'd brought me in and wasn't going to play me then I didn't know if I could trust him the next season because the style of play he was playing didn't necessarily suit me.

"The reason I went there initially in the Premier League was because you kind of have to play some football to a certain extent in order to compete.

"In the Championship I wasn't too sure if they were going to revert back to how they'd played before so we had a talk in pre-season and he said he couldn't guarantee me to play games.

"My agent was looking elsewhere to see what he could find and there was interest from Fulham.

"I remember playing the first game for Cardiff, the window was still open, then I came in on the Monday and he told me I could go if I wanted to go.

"It was a massive surprise to me as I thought he might give me a chance to play. Once he said that I knew it wasn't going to work out there.

"I don't know what's been said from that side but I got told I could leave so I did."

Decordova-Reid left South Wales with five goals to his name, and there's still a feeling among some supporters that he was never given a chance to really realise his potential at the Cardiff City Stadium.

However, he insists he has no regrets over the move, adding that the opportunity to play in the top flight was too good to turn down.

"Obviously everyone wants to play in the Premier League and I got a call from my agent saying they were interested.

"I thought it was a place where I was going to play games, unfortunately I didn't necessarily play as much as I wanted to, but it was close to home as well.

"It was perfect, Premier League football and close to home, I didn't have to go up north and could stay close to family.

"It was something I couldn't turn down and to this day I don't regret it."



https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/cardiff-city-bobby-reid-exit-18190172

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Top 10 USMNT players in Premier League history

Getty Images

There has been a steady stream of USMNT players in the Premier League over the years and now seems like a good time to reveal our top 10.

No shock that plenty of 'Fulhamerica' stars feature in our rankings list below, and plenty of goalkeepers too, as there are plenty of factors to consider when ranking the top USMNT players to have graced the Premier League. How much of an impact did they have? Which teams did they play for? How long did they stay in England's top-flight?

Feel free to let us know if you agree with the rankings in the comments below. Hopefully we will have plenty of USMNT players in the Premier League to add to these rankings in the years to come.

10 – Kasey Keller: The first of several American goalkeepers in our list, Kasey Keller bounced around plenty of Premier League teams and was as reliable as ever for all of them. Keller played for Leicester City, Tottenham Hotspur, Southampton and Fulham and his baggy sweatpants during his days at Leicester were a thing of beauty. Keller played in goal as Leicester won the 1996-97 League Cup and that is where he had the majority of his success. The Seattle native battled with Brad Friedel, Tony Meola and Tim Howard for minutes throughout his USMNT career and spent the majority of his club playing days in Europe with stops in Spain and Germany along the way.

9 – Landon Donovan: This pick could cause some controversy but I'm going with it. Donovan only played on loan at Everton for two brief spells but he was so good on both occasions that Everton's fans were begging David Moyes to sign him permanently from the LA Galaxy. Donovan used those loan spells to get himself ready for the upcoming MLS campaigns but it also seemed like a reminder to everyone who doubted him that he could indeed cut it in the big leagues in Europe after failures at Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich earlier in his career. Donovan was quite happy to play the role of fleeting star at Everton for a few months then fly back to LA and star for the Galaxy. Can we really argue with that plan? It was a shame, though, that one of the greatest players in USMNT history didn't grace the Premier League stage for longer.

8 – Claudio Reyna: Played in 105 games for Sunderland and Man City and would have played a lot more had injuries not him hard. Reyna spent the prime years of his career in Germany with Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg (who he captained) but he was still hugely influential for both Man City and Sunderland who, at that time, were midtable Premier League teams. Reyna had been at Glasgow Rangers and is known as the original 'Captain America' who led by example with his silky skills in midfield at Sunderland and Man City.

7 – Geoff Cameron: Clint Dempsey is the only American outfield player to have appeared in more Premier League games than Cameron. A six-season stay with Stoke City in the PL saw Cameron operate at right back, center back and in his preferred role of central midfield and his composure on the ball compliments his defensive ability and reading of the game. Cameron has flown under the radar but was hugely appreciated at Stoke. The Boston native was influential in the USMNT's 2014 World Cup and 2016 Copa America Centenario teams and he has risen from the college game in the U.S. to the PL via the Houston Dynamo through sheer hard work and grit. Underrated.

6 – Carlos Bocanegra: Bocanegra became the captain and leader at Fulham and will go down as one of the greatest American defenders of all time. His five-season stay at Fulham was during the real heyday of 'Fulhamerica' and he had a very respectable career in Europe after spells at Rennes, Glasgow Rangers, Saint Etienne and Racing Santander. Boca was a dominant center back who had class on the ball with his left foot and dominated MLS as a youngster. He won 110 caps for the U.S. and played at the 2006 and 2010 World Cups, captaining the team in the latter and during their amazing Gold Cup run.

5 – Christian Pulisic: Listen, he's only played in the Premier League 16 times but he's scored five goals (including a hat trick against Burnley) and it's safe to say he's having a huge impact at one of the biggest clubs in England, Chelsea. Pulisic is still just 21 years old and he's living his dream ripping it up in the PL after his $75 million transfer from Borussia Dortmund. His creativity, pace and cutting edge in the final third means he has taken the reputation of American players to a whole new level. Only at the start of his Premier League journey but if we're updating these rankings in five years time, it's hard to see how Pulisic will not be at the very top given how much potential he has to be a star at Chelsea.

4 – Brian McBride: Another 'Fulhamerica' star, McBride was a hero at Craven Cottage. The Illinois native was a proper old school center forward and was loved at first Everton, then Fulham for his bravery. A menace in the air, he led the line superbly and was captain of Fulham alongside Bocanegra and the host of American players (Kasey Keller, Eddie Johnson and Clint Dempsey were all in Fulham's 2007-08 squad). McBride scored 41 goals across four seasons at Fulham and will forever hold a place in the hearts of their fans.

3- Brad Friedel: An incredible career in England which saw him play at Liverpool, Blackburn Rovers, Aston Villa and Tottenham across 16 Premier League seasons. Friedel played until he was 43 and told us all about his journey in this piece about his arrival in the English game and how he lasted so long at the top level in the UK. He played in 450 Premier League games which is a record for any player from North or South America. His agility and positioning allowed him to stay in the game for so long and he was a great in a truly great generation of American goalkeepers. He played 82 times for the USMNT and was the starter at both the 1998 and 2002 World Cups before moving aside to let Tim Howard take over. When we talk about legendary American playing careers, Friedel is right at the top and his form in the Premier League definitely opened the door for Howard and other young USMNT goalkeepers to arrive in the years to come. The fact his incredible hybrid accent isn't the main highlight from his career in England tells you just how great of a goalkeeper he was. Oh, and he scored for Blackburn against Charlton too.

2- Clint Dempsey: Deuce was a game-changer for American players in the Premier League. Dempsey was something completely different than what English teams and fans had seen before from U.S. stars and his swagger on the ball saw him become a legend at Fulham. He was one of their best players during their epic run to the UEFA Europa League final (my goodness, that chip against Juventus in the last 16) and finished as their top goalscorer during several seasons. In the 2011-12 season he scored 23 goals in all competitions and he then moved on to Tottenham. He contributed at Spurs but it was in his six seasons at Fulham where he had the biggest impact as he won back-to-back players of the year awards during the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons. Dempsey is a Fulham and USMNT legend and anytime Fulham or the USA needed him he stood tall.

1 – Tim Howard: A legend at Everton after being at Goodison Park for 10 years, Howard was consistently superb for a decade. The New Jersey native did okay when he first arrived in England at Man United but after an initial loan spell at Everton, he had found his home and soon joined permanently. From 2006 to 2016 he was a constant in Everton's goal, making fine reflex stops and rushing off his line to thwart danger as the Toffees became a team which challenged for the top six and reached the latter stages of cup competitions consistently. Howard, now 41, is adored at Everton and like Friedel, he even scored a goal in the Premier League. When all is said and done, Howard had the biggest impact over the longest period of time of any American player on a single Premier League club.

Honorable mention: Brad Guzan, DeAndre Yedlin, Jonathan Spector, Joe-Max Moore, Jay DeMerit, John Harkes



https://soccer.nbcsports.com/2020/05/02/top-10-usmnt-players-in-premier-league-history/