Author Topic: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing  (Read 728 times)

Offline abfg

  • tjl
  • *
  • Posts: 169
5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« on: June 20, 2020, 05:32:28 PM »
Today was there for the taking....for both teams. Their manager was decisive earlier, and put on subs who changed the game. Parker waited far too long, giving our 'game changers' off the bench no chance to play their way into the match. It's a continuation of what happened before the break in this regard, but with more subs available, wiser more tactically astute managers will make hay, and this will cost us.

Also, a squad with only one first team centre forward in it? Makes no sense to me - right now another no. 9 would be of far more use to us than Cav or Arter.

On the plus side, Reed played well and BDR looked dangerous (but needs a bit of coaching to get him into top class territory).

Offline DevonFFC

  • The Bard/Corked Hat
  • *
  • Posts: 3025
Re: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2020, 05:57:37 PM »
It means that teams who play a high tempo press which we usually try to tire and hit later in the match  can change half the outfield and more than likely be able to continue the press for the whole 90 minutes.

Subs should be being made far earlier than the 60-70 min mark that’s far too late.

It’s almost like American sports where you could almost swap the whole set up and have a defensive and attacking set up that you swap.

Offline alfie

  • Gentleman Jim
  • ***
  • Posts: 5892
Re: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2020, 06:36:14 PM »
It means that teams who play a high tempo press which we usually try to tire and hit later in the match  can change half the outfield and more than likely be able to continue the press for the whole 90 minutes.

Subs should be being made far earlier than the 60-70 min mark that’s far too late.

It’s almost like American sports where you could almost swap the whole set up and have a defensive and attacking set up that you swap.
You can also make the subs too early.


Offline DevonFFC

  • The Bard/Corked Hat
  • *
  • Posts: 3025
Re: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2020, 07:20:50 AM »
It means that teams who play a high tempo press which we usually try to tire and hit later in the match  can change half the outfield and more than likely be able to continue the press for the whole 90 minutes.

Subs should be being made far earlier than the 60-70 min mark that’s far too late.

It’s almost like American sports where you could almost swap the whole set up and have a defensive and attacking set up that you swap.
You can also make the subs too early.

That’s very true but based on yesterday’s game from about 55 mins in I could see how it was going to end up, we needed to charge something as Brentford we’re growing into the game and dominating play.

Statto

  • Guest
Re: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2020, 08:38:15 AM »
Here's the expected goals timeline for the match yesterday. EG is a metric some people overate IMO but it does at least show you when the best chances fell for each team during the match.

In the first half you can see we shaded the game for the first 30 mins or so but then Brentford began to dominate in the last 15. No surprise there.

In the second half, you can see we had the better of chances up until their goal. If you were doing a proper half-by-half analysis, the two lines should actually start from the same level at the start of the second half, and then our dominance from the 45th to 88th minute would be quite stark.

The fact is, where people are saying Parker should have been making these subs on 50 or 60 mins, actually we were the team far more likely to score in that period, which is probably why he was reluctant to change it.

Brentford had done literally nothing until about the 70th min, which is when both teams made their first subs. That's when they started to grow into the half again, which does suggest their subs made more of an impact and/or that their players were less fatigued.

So Parker got the timing right for his intervention (around 70-80 mins) but perhaps didn't make the best choices.

« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 09:52:22 AM by Statto »

Offline DevonFFC

  • The Bard/Corked Hat
  • *
  • Posts: 3025
Re: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2020, 09:16:12 AM »
Here's the expected goals timeline for the match yesterday. EG is a metric some people over rate IMO but it does at least show you when the best chances fell for each team during the match.

In the first half you can see we shaded the game for the first 30 mins or so but then Brentford began to dominate in the last 15. No surprise there.

In the second half, you can see we had the better of chances up until their goal. If you were doing a proper half-by-half analysis, the two lines should actually start from the same level at the start of the second half, and then our dominance from the 45th to 88th minute would be quite stark.

The fact is, where people are saying Parker should have been making these subs on 50 or 60 mins, actually we were the team far more likely to score in that period, which is probably why he was reluctant to change it.

Brentford had done literally nothing until about the 70th min, which is when both teams made their first subs. That's when they started to grow into the half again, which does suggest their subs made more of an impact and/or that their players were less fatigued.

So Parker got the timing right for his intervention (around 70-80 mins) but perhaps didn't make the best choices.



The graphs that you show, did you get them from a website?

If so could you post the link please I’m intrigued to read up on it.

Thanks



Offline ByTheRiver

  • Legend
  • ***
  • Posts: 1016
Re: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2020, 10:07:13 AM »
Here's the expected goals timeline for the match yesterday. EG is a metric some people overate IMO but it does at least show you when the best chances fell for each team during the match.

In the first half you can see we shaded the game for the first 30 mins or so but then Brentford began to dominate in the last 15. No surprise there.

In the second half, you can see we had the better of chances up until their goal. If you were doing a proper half-by-half analysis, the two lines should actually start from the same level at the start of the second half, and then our dominance from the 45th to 88th minute would be quite stark.

The fact is, where people are saying Parker should have been making these subs on 50 or 60 mins, actually we were the team far more likely to score in that period, which is probably why he was reluctant to change it.

Brentford had done literally nothing until about the 70th min, which is when both teams made their first subs. That's when they started to grow into the half again, which does suggest their subs made more of an impact and/or that their players were less fatigued.

So Parker got the timing right for his intervention (around 70-80 mins) but perhaps didn't make the best choices.



These are interesting and it does give a bit of perspective as to why Parker was reluctant to change. Could the timeline in the graphs also match Reed having to go off? I feel he does a far better job at shielding the back four and shutting down attacks than anyone else in that role. Seems to me that is a potential reason they were able to create more when he was no longer there.

That and potentially tiredness/fitness, given the first half was a similar pattern (dipping at the end of the half, before a break). Brentford the fitter team? Maybe those friendlies helped.

Offline abfg

  • tjl
  • *
  • Posts: 169
Re: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2020, 10:31:31 AM »
Here's the expected goals timeline for the match yesterday. EG is a metric some people overate IMO but it does at least show you when the best chances fell for each team during the match.

In the first half you can see we shaded the game for the first 30 mins or so but then Brentford began to dominate in the last 15. No surprise there.

In the second half, you can see we had the better of chances up until their goal. If you were doing a proper half-by-half analysis, the two lines should actually start from the same level at the start of the second half, and then our dominance from the 45th to 88th minute would be quite stark.

The fact is, where people are saying Parker should have been making these subs on 50 or 60 mins, actually we were the team far more likely to score in that period, which is probably why he was reluctant to change it.

Brentford had done literally nothing until about the 70th min, which is when both teams made their first subs. That's when they started to grow into the half again, which does suggest their subs made more of an impact and/or that their players were less fatigued.

So Parker got the timing right for his intervention (around 70-80 mins) but perhaps didn't make the best choices.



What these graphs fail to show though is that in the second half Brentford had numerous 'dangerous situations' where they were let down by the final ball, so the XG doesn't really reflect that. I have to be honest, despite the fact we had a couple of good chances, Brentofrd were the teamslightly more likely the whole game. And when it was there for the taking, their manager was decisive and took the initiative, which in the end made a difference.


Offline Skatzoffc

  • Jimmy Hill
  • *
  • Posts: 2053
Re: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2020, 10:51:46 AM »
I disagree that "Parker got the timing right". He obviously didn't as we lost the match 0-2 at home.

Let's face it he only made the sub because Reed was injured. I.e. he didn't make a decision, his hand was forced. If Reed hadn't got injured I wonder if he would have mad a sub at all.

It's worrying. It has been a problem all season. We seem set in our ways and other teams change it up.

I agree 5 subs will work against us more with this coach tho.



Offline H4usuallysitting

  • Gentleman Jim
  • ***
  • Posts: 5218
Re: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2020, 10:52:32 AM »
Facts are no good on the forum.....can we please ban him

Statto

  • Guest
Re: 5 Subs Could Well be our Undoing
« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2020, 11:02:38 AM »
I disagree that "Parker got the timing right". He obviously didn't as we lost the match 0-2 at home.

Let's face it he only made the sub because Reed was injured. I.e. he didn't make a decision, his hand was forced. If Reed hadn't got injured I wonder if he would have mad a sub at all.

Just looking at the final score is obviously an oversimplification. If we'd been 4-0 up at half and lost the game 5-4, would you say we got our tactics wrong in the first half?

Also the first sub was Cavaleiro on for Kebano on 72 mins.Reed didn't go off until 80 min.

FWIW I'm not saying the subs were right. IMO together with one of those changes on 72/80 mins, we should also have brought on Johansen (probably for Knockaert and put BDR on LW) and replaced one of the FBs. I just don't agree that we needed a change any earlier than 72mins.