In reality, are we competing to be next season's Norwich?

[Statto]

I don't buy into these 'not good enough to go up' arguments at all, to be honest

I appreciate that teams promoted as champions are statistically more likely to stay up than those promoted as runners up or through the play-offs, but it's hardly determinative of success.

On the whole, any newly-promoted team is going to need at least 3-4 high quality new starters and perhaps 6-8 new signings overall. No newly-promoted club can reasonably aim to do more than just avoid relegation in their first season up, and no matter how good they were in the Championship there's still a good chance they'll go back down.

I don't buy this idea that Wolves, Sheffield United or Tigana's Fulham have set some kind of template to follow. Wolves are a total anomaly. I actually think we were better than them when we came up together. Then we both spent £100m, and the difference was just that they spent it better. Similarly Sheffield United weren't a great team when they came up, they've just been well-motivated and organised, neither of which we were in 18/19. And in any case, my money's still on Sheffield United being in a relegation battle next season once the wheels come off.

IMO it doesn't matter how good you think you are when you come up, it just matters how well you spend the £100m TV money in that first transfer window, and how well coached and motivated your players are when you get thrown to the lions somewhere like Man City away.

[We Are Premier League]

If we go up...we only need to finish ahead of the other promoted teams and one additonal team...

Some average teams that will stay in PL this year...Sheff U, Burnley, Brighton - it only takes one of them to have a bad run for us to get 17th!

Why get promoted if you want to finish 17th?

I think survival is a fair target for all promoted clubs, for the first season...in year 2 we can start the long long long long journey back to european football...

[Sting of the North]

If we go up...we only need to finish ahead of the other promoted teams and one additonal team...

Some average teams that will stay in PL this year...Sheff U, Burnley, Brighton - it only takes one of them to have a bad run for us to get 17th!

Why get promoted if you want to finish 17th?

Why play at all unless you will win the Champions League? Maybe it is not a reasonable expectation to go from the Championship to being in contention for Europe? I don't think anyone wishes for us to finish 17th, but many would be ok with it for the first season.

[Sting of the North]

I don't buy into these 'not good enough to go up' arguments at all, to be honest

I appreciate that teams promoted as champions are statistically more likely to stay up than those promoted as runners up or through the play-offs, but it's hardly determinative of success.

On the whole, any newly-promoted team is going to need at least 3-4 high quality new starters and perhaps 6-8 new signings overall. No newly-promoted club can reasonably aim to do more than just avoid relegation in their first season up, and no matter how good they were in the Championship there's still a good chance they'll go back down.

I don't buy this idea that Wolves, Sheffield United or Tigana's Fulham have set some kind of template to follow. Wolves are a total anomaly. I actually think we were better than them when we came up together. Then we both spent £100m, and the difference was just that they spent it better. Similarly Sheffield United weren't a great team when they came up, they've just been well-motivated and organised, neither of which we were in 18/19. And in any case, my money's still on Sheffield United being in a relegation battle next season once the wheels come off.

IMO it doesn't matter how good you think you are when you come up, it just matters how well you spend the £100m TV money in that first transfer window, and how well coached and motivated your players are when you get thrown to the lions somewhere like Man City away.

:plus one:

[Woolly Mammoth]

If we finish in the top two or via the play offs we deserve to go up, whether we end up good enough to stay up is a different matter.

[Jims Dentist]

Fair play to them Norwich knew the score.
Unlike us they did not throw money around in a bid to stay up.
They will be in a very good position to challenge in the Championship next season.

Brighton did the same, although Chris Hughton's astute management and the run of the green kept them up.

[The Rational Fan]

I don't buy into these 'not good enough to go up' arguments at all, to be honest. I don't buy this idea that Wolves, Sheffield United or Tigana's Fulham have set some kind of template to follow. Wolves are a total anomaly.

IMO it doesn't matter how good you think you are when you come up, it just matters how well you spend the £100m TV money in that first transfer window, and how well coached and motivated your players are when you get thrown to the lions somewhere like Man City away.

I think the differentiator that plays a large part in going staying up (or not) is injuries. All the teams, including the teams in the premier league have £100m squads. Wolves and Sheffield United played as a unit, but this was largely possible as they had almost no injuries during the season.

Fulham injuries include a) Cairney injured from game 4 to game 10 (his comeback game against Huddersfield was poor), b) Anguissa was injured most games from game 13 to game 30; c) Mawson was injured from games 1-5  (with a terrible comeback game against Watford that barely saw him return until game 12) and then injured again from game 21 onwards. That means not a single game with all of Mawson, Anguissa and Cairney being full fit all season.

These injuries affected results Brighton (A), Watford (H), Cardiff (A), Huddersfield (A), Newcastle (A), Wolves (H), Tottenham (H) and Burnley (A) my guess the injuries cost us around five points in the first half of the season and two points in the second half of the season.

In addition, when the winter transfer window opened we were five points behind 16th place with Mawson and Anguissa injured, the season was probably over being five points behind with an injured squad so we didn't buy players. Without those injuries, we would have had a few more points plus been able to play Mawson and Anguissa plus bring in Cahill, Drinkwater, Moses, and Babel, retaining Rico, Bryan, Cairney, Sessegnon and Mitro in the starting Xi.

Hence, without injuries our XI vs Burnley (A) might have been Rico; Moses, Chambers, Mawson, Cahill, Bryan; Drinkwater, Anguissa, Cairney; R.Sessegnon, Mitro and Babel with a bench of Betts, Christie, Odoi, MLM, Seri, Schrulle and Vietto. This squad would have added another 8 points to the second half of the season, on top of the five points we probably would have had without injuries in the first half of the season. The conclusion injury free we would have stayed up, like Wolves and Sheffield United.

Aston Villa proved you cannot spend a £100m on new players to stay up, if they do stay up a large part of that is due to last year's championship players such as Jack Grealish, John McGinn, Tyrone Mings and others. Aston Villa is still built around last years players and not just the £100m+ imports. Wolves and Sheffield United were built around the squads going up to, as oppose to the summer spending.

I think Fulham's promoted players from the championship delivered much less than Aston Villas, Wolves and Sheffield United promoted players, to me the real difference between Fulham and these other teams is what the promoted players delivered in the premier league rather than what the new recruits did. The Fulham team of 17/18 were the right players to get us up, but not the right players to keep us up and that's hard to fix in one transfer window. And, it was too late by the second transfer window.

[rebel]

Nothing wrong with comparing ourselves with Norwich, but how many people thought Sheffield United would do so well.
Both Bournemouth & Boscombe performances bordered on the miraculous at times and they are still in the Premier League, maybe only just but they are still alive. Both Brighton & Hove Albion have done similar against the doubters, so it can be done, with the right backroom staff of course. 

Agree 100%. What it needs is a 'settled squad' which can do the basics, which has a 'pattern of play' that isn't one dimensional.

[rebel]

I don't buy into these 'not good enough to go up' arguments at all, to be honest

I appreciate that teams promoted as champions are statistically more likely to stay up than those promoted as runners up or through the play-offs, but it's hardly determinative of success.

On the whole, any newly-promoted team is going to need at least 3-4 high quality new starters and perhaps 6-8 new signings overall. No newly-promoted club can reasonably aim to do more than just avoid relegation in their first season up, and no matter how good they were in the Championship there's still a good chance they'll go back down.

I don't buy this idea that Wolves, Sheffield United or Tigana's Fulham have set some kind of template to follow. Wolves are a total anomaly. I actually think we were better than them when we came up together. Then we both spent £100m, and the difference was just that they spent it better. Similarly Sheffield United weren't a great team when they came up, they've just been well-motivated and organised, neither of which we were in 18/19. And in any case, my money's still on Sheffield United being in a relegation battle next season once the wheels come off.

IMO it doesn't matter how good you think you are when you come up, it just matters how well you spend the £100m TV money in that first transfer window, and how well coached and motivated your players are when you get thrown to the lions somewhere like Man City away.

Agreed with your first sentence, but I didn't say Wolves or Sheff Utd were better then us, they are teams we need to emulate because they have stayed up because of different methods. 

[rebel]

If we go up...we only need to finish ahead of the other promoted teams and one additonal team...

Some average teams that will stay in PL this year...Sheff U, Burnley, Brighton - it only takes one of them to have a bad run for us to get 17th!

Why get promoted if you want to finish 17th?

Why play at all unless you will win the Champions League? Maybe it is not a reasonable expectation to go from the Championship to being in contention for Europe? I don't think anyone wishes for us to finish 17th, but many would be ok with it for the first season.

The teams that finish in the 'basement' of the Prem, generally tend to struggle the following season, a 'mentality' sets in, a 'losing mentality'.

[RaySmith]

Every team strives to get promotion - that is every team  tries to do as well as possible in every game, which will  lead you to promotion or a play-off place if you  do well enough, and if you're in the play-offs you strive to win them, of course.

Then obviously  you should have some strategy of  staying up - how many players should you get in in,  at what price, how many of the  promotion squad to  keep, who should be  manager/head coach etc.

Then you just  have to hope you have enough about you and your set up stay up.

Well, I suppose you want self belief and confidence about your players and set up , rather than hope, but we all know it can be a bit of a lottery in those first couple of seasons, but i suppose  things should be in place to make it less so.

Looking back on Fulham's last Prem season, we seemed doo-med from the start - bringing in the wrong players too late, throwing them all straight in the team with no preparation, hardly  even having met their new teammates or each other.
You can maybe do this with  one or two players, but doing it with so many at the core of your team seems against all  football common sense.

[The Rational Fan]

Looking back on Fulham's last Prem season, we seemed doo-med from the start - bringing in the wrong players too late, throwing them all straight in the team with no preparation, hardly  even having met their new teammates or each other.
You can maybe do this with  one or two players, but doing it with so many at the core of your team seems against all  football common sense.

Are you saying that you knew the squad (Betts; Christie, Odoi, Ream, S.Sess; KMac, Stefjo, Cairney; Kamara, Mitro, Atyie) early in the window that had been undefeated in 25 of its last 27 games had no chance to win any games early in the season? Are you also saying that Fulham needed to recruit big early in the window, when Sheffield United didn't recruit hardly at all and stayed up?

Given the 23 game unbeaten run, I would suggest Betts; Christie, Odoi, Ream, MLM; KMac, Stefjo, Cairney; Kamara, Mitro, R.Sessegnon should have been able to beat Brighton, Cardiff, and Huddersfield without the new recruits (including Rico, TFM, Chambers, Mawson, MLM, Anguissa, Seri, Schulle, and Vietto). I would actually suggest Betts, Ream, Bryan and Cairney's minor injuries early in the season is what messed up the plan for the first few games.

I believe Wolves and Sheffield United stayed up partly because they were injury-free, both teams had pretty poor benches (with worse players than Christie, Odoi, KMac, Stefjo and Kamara) that injuries would have exposed, which would have probably resulted in those team's downfall into the championship.

[Sting of the North]

Looking back on Fulham's last Prem season, we seemed doo-med from the start - bringing in the wrong players too late, throwing them all straight in the team with no preparation, hardly  even having met their new teammates or each other.
You can maybe do this with  one or two players, but doing it with so many at the core of your team seems against all  football common sense.

Are you saying that you knew the squad (Betts; Christie, Odoi, Ream, S.Sess; KMac, Stefjo, Cairney; Kamara, Mitro, Atyie) early in the window that had been undefeated in 25 of its last 27 games had no chance to win any games early in the season? Are you also saying that Fulham needed to recruit big early in the window, when Sheffield United didn't recruit hardly at all and stayed up?

Did you on purpose fail to mention that we had lost some key players from that unbeaten run in Fredericks and Targett (I assume you meant to put Ryan Sess not Steven in there)? And also competent back up in Piazon and Norwood). It is one thing to keep your promotion winning squad and add some players, while it is another to have to replace key parts of your promotion winning squad just to keep status quo.

Agree though that few anticipated the depth of our struggles but there were plenty people flagging for these issues.

If we were to be promoted this year I would say that we are at least in a much better position than last time since we will likely be able to keep the full squad (with the potential exception of Arter and/or Knockaert depending on how those deals are structured). And this is from a squad with more depth to start with. So already to start the off season and before any signings we would look better this time around. In my opinion.

[rebel]

Every team strives to get promotion - that is every team  tries to do as well as possible in every game, which will  lead you to promotion or a play-off place if you  do well enough, and if you're in the play-offs you strive to win them, of course.

Then obviously  you should have some strategy of  staying up - how many players should you get in in,  at what price, how many of the  promotion squad to  keep, who should be  manager/head coach etc.

Then you just  have to hope you have enough about you and your set up stay up.

Well, I suppose you want self belief and confidence about your players and set up , rather than hope, but we all know it can be a bit of a lottery in those first couple of seasons, but i suppose  things should be in place to make it less so.

Looking back on Fulham's last Prem season, we seemed doo-med from the start - bringing in the wrong players too late, throwing them all straight in the team with no preparation, hardly  even having met their new teammates or each other.
You can maybe do this with  one or two players, but doing it with so many at the core of your team seems against all  football common sense.

Agree 100%. AM said before the the transfer window opened, that due to the World Cup, the transfers will be conducted at the end of the window. That is a huge, huge sign. Khan Jr bit that Tottenham bug of signing players last minute, being ace at negotiating transfers. We were signing players well into the season, no pre-season, I could go on, but won't. You get the picture. The only people clued up were the fans, they were asking all the right questions. 

[Sting of the North]

If we go up...we only need to finish ahead of the other promoted teams and one additonal team...

Some average teams that will stay in PL this year...Sheff U, Burnley, Brighton - it only takes one of them to have a bad run for us to get 17th!

Why get promoted if you want to finish 17th?

Why play at all unless you will win the Champions League? Maybe it is not a reasonable expectation to go from the Championship to being in contention for Europe? I don't think anyone wishes for us to finish 17th, but many would be ok with it for the first season.

The teams that finish in the 'basement' of the Prem, generally tend to struggle the following season, a 'mentality' sets in, a 'losing mentality'.

Is there not a difference between teams that are promoted and manage to survive vs teams that are deemed to be severely under performing compared to previous seasons?

In any case, do you suggest that either we need to be sure that we can finish in the top half of the PL at the first try or otherwise we may well not just bother? Hopefully those in charge don't have such a defeatist mentality. In my opinion.

[The Rational Fan]

Looking back on Fulham's last Prem season, we seemed doo-med from the start - bringing in the wrong players too late, throwing them all straight in the team with no preparation, hardly  even having met their new teammates or each other.
You can maybe do this with  one or two players, but doing it with so many at the core of your team seems against all  football common sense.

Are you saying that you knew the squad (Betts; Christie, Odoi, Ream, S.Sess; KMac, Stefjo, Cairney; Kamara, Mitro, Atyie) early in the window that had been undefeated in 25 of its last 27 games had no chance to win any games early in the season? Are you also saying that Fulham needed to recruit big early in the window, when Sheffield United didn't recruit hardly at all and stayed up?

Did you on purpose fail to mention that we had lost some key players from that unbeaten run in Fredericks and Targett (I assume you meant to put Ryan Sess not Steven in there)? And also competent back up in Piazon and Norwood). It is one thing to keep your promotion winning squad and add some players, while it is another to have to replace key parts of your promotion winning squad just to keep status quo.

Agree though that few anticipated the depth of our struggles but there were plenty people flagging for these issues.

If we were to be promoted this year I would say that we are at least in a much better position than last time since we will likely be able to keep the full squad (with the potential exception of Arter and/or Knockaert depending on how those deals are structured). And this is from a squad with more depth to start with. So already to start the off season and before any signings we would look better this time around. In my opinion.

I believe its very hard if you don't go up with a squad that can at least get you through the first few games. Financially, we couldn't buy anyone until 1st July 2018, assuming we bough then it is still very hard to build a squad in that time especially if you get injuries to Betts, Ream and Cairney in the first few games. Next time will be better.

[Statto]

Wolves and Sheffield United were built around the squads going up to, as oppose to the summer spending.

Wolves were in a unique position in that they'd been able to sign some exceptional players like Jota and Neves whilst still in the Championship but they still brought in Traore, Jiminez, Dendoncker, Rui Patricio, Moutinho, Jonny when they came up... half their best players

[SP]

On reflection, I think maybe I was aiming a little high. 

Some very perceptive points raised here by other posters though.