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How many points have we lost this season, because we haven't closed games out?

Started by rebel, July 11, 2020, 07:39:38 PM

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Statto

So looking at the current league leaders, Leeds:

Lost v Swansea to a 90th minute winner
Conceded a 77th minute equaliser v Forest
Conceded a 91st minute equaliser v Derby
Were 3-0 up v Cardiff but drew after conceding in the 60th, 86th and 88th minutes

So they've dropped 7 pts versus our 5 pts for failing to close games out. So we're better than them.

Sting of the North

Quote from: rebel on July 12, 2020, 08:58:44 AM
Quote from: Sting of the North on July 12, 2020, 08:31:57 AM
Quote from: rebel on July 12, 2020, 08:21:26 AM
Quote from: Sting of the North on July 12, 2020, 07:53:56 AM
Quote from: rebel on July 12, 2020, 07:47:22 AM
Quote from: Statto on July 11, 2020, 08:33:23 PM
Quote from: rebel on July 11, 2020, 07:39:38 PM
I'd say more then then the 5 points difference between us and the top two as of today.

If you define as having the lead with 20 mins or less remaining, the answer is 4 pts, from the Sheffield Wednesday and West Brom games

Parker has an impeccable record of seeing games out. I'd be surprised if our record isn't the best in the league. When we score first in a match, we're nigh on guaranteed to win.

[EDIT: Just noticed Plodder's post above which confirms the foregoing.]

It has improved, it hasn't always been the case, West Brom (2 points), Sheff Wed (2 points), Luton (2 points, might be a bit contentious for some) and Brentford 1 point.

What is your assumption here? What's the point of this thread? As has been pointed out by several posters already we are top of the league in closing games out. Is that not good enough?

Well since your asking, the point of the thread is that we would have a few more points in the bank, we would be closer to the automatic promotion places had we closed out games  earlier in the season. That is the point of this thread. If your not interested, don't bother reading it.

Everybody understands that. But the thread seemingly implied that we had done bad in that regard, which we obviously haven't. Whatever the reason for us not being top two, our ability to close out games is at the bottom of the list of those reasons. I assume you thought otherwise, because why else start the thread? Hence my question. It was not meant as an insult. Of course I guess it is possible that you just wanted to dissect every possible reason there is, but surely it is not reasonable to go a full season without ever losing a lead?

And what's with the "don't bother reading" reply? Surely you have to expect people not agreeing with you Or questioning your points on a discussion forum?

I'm tempted to 'dissect' your post, but not going to. All I will say is during the season there was a period when we were poor at 'closing games out'. Clearly it has improved. Most of these points lost were self inflicted with needless substitutions being made. You ask why start the thread and finish with 'Surely you have to expect people not agreeing with you Or questioning your points on a discussion forum?'.

I never questioned your right to start the thread, I tried to understand what the point you were trying to make  was. That is still not very clear to me, but that doesn't matter.

Feel free to 'dissect' my post all you like, but it was never meant to be neither complex nor subtle.

Woolly Mammoth

It is a domino effect, because if strikers miss opportunity's at their end and fail to score, it naturally puts pressure on the defence not to concede, and consequently can make them nervous.
In the same way as defenders or should I say players in defensive areas, conceding sloppy goals that should and could have been avoided, naturally puts pressure on the strikers to score more goals and sometimes the consequences of this is that under pressure strikers can lose their composure.
So it is a bit of both, but as we all know a team has to take its chances when they are on top to avoid rueing this missed opportunity's.
The first 90+ minutes are the most important, and just as important is that the ball never gets tired.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.


Statto

West Brom:

Conceded 75th min equaliser v Millwall
Conceded 94th min equaliser v Charlton
Conceded 90th min equaliser v Barnsley
Lost to a 76th min winner from Cardiff
Conceded a 76th min equaliser v Charlton (again)
Lost to a 73rd min winner from Wigan
Conceded a 91st min equaliser v Forest

So 12 points dropped from failing to close games out.

We could go on...

rebel

Quote from: filham on July 12, 2020, 09:50:10 AM
If we are looking for a single reason why we are not likely to achieve automatic promotion then quite simply it is because we have scored insufficient goals in spite of a magnificent 25 from Mitro. Only 5 goals from six games since the restart after Lockdown. This aspect of our game needs addressing before the start the play offs.

The main culprits are strikers Reid, Cav. and Knock. none of them have scored for a dozen games or so. Onomah and Arter are now chipping in with goals from midfield and the return of Kamara and Cairney may add to the scoring potential but really those three strikers have to start finding the net.

Good post, I've stated that before, I've even been critical of Mitro. Yes he's top scorer, but he's missed far too many chances.

Statto

Brentford

Conceded 81st min winner for Leeds
Conceded 87th min equaliser v Bristol
1-0 up v Sheffield Wednesday with 69 mins gone, went on to lose 2-1


rebel

Quote from: Statto on July 12, 2020, 10:06:18 AM
West Brom:

Conceded 75th min equaliser v Millwall
Conceded 94th min equaliser v Charlton
Conceded 90th min equaliser v Barnsley
Lost to a 76th min winner from Cardiff
Conceded a 76th min equaliser v Charlton (again)
Lost to a 73rd min winner from Wigan
Conceded a 91st min equaliser v Forest

So 12 points dropped from failing to close games out.

We could go on...


To be honest, I've only looked at goals conceded by Fulham after the 80th minute. 

Statto

Quote from: rebel on July 12, 2020, 10:16:31 AM
Quote from: Statto on July 12, 2020, 10:06:18 AM
West Brom:

Conceded 75th min equaliser v Millwall
Conceded 94th min equaliser v Charlton
Conceded 90th min equaliser v Barnsley
Lost to a 76th min winner from Cardiff
Conceded a 76th min equaliser v Charlton (again)
Lost to a 73rd min winner from Wigan
Conceded a 91st min equaliser v Forest

So 12 points dropped from failing to close games out.

We could go on...


To be honest, I've only looked at goals conceded by Fulham after the 80th minute. 

Points dropped after 80th min

Brentford 4
Leeds 5
Fulham 5
West Brom 6
Forest 6-12 (depending how you calculate it)

Still think we're poor in this regard?

ALG01

i think this was parker's big plus. we started poorly giving away points but he quickly sirted that and I think the team are confident they can defend a lead. the work ethic in the squad seems brilliant so no issues there.

what is wrong is we do not look enough of a threat and make way to many good chances inside the box, you cannot rely on 25yard thunderbolts every game, it doesn't work like that.


rebel

Quote from: Statto on July 12, 2020, 10:35:22 AM
Quote from: rebel on July 12, 2020, 10:16:31 AM
Quote from: Statto on July 12, 2020, 10:06:18 AM
West Brom:

Conceded 75th min equaliser v Millwall
Conceded 94th min equaliser v Charlton
Conceded 90th min equaliser v Barnsley
Lost to a 76th min winner from Cardiff
Conceded a 76th min equaliser v Charlton (again)
Lost to a 73rd min winner from Wigan
Conceded a 91st min equaliser v Forest

So 12 points dropped from failing to close games out.

We could go on...


To be honest, I've only looked at goals conceded by Fulham after the 80th minute. 

Points dropped after 80th min

Brentford 4
Leeds 5
Fulham 5
West Brom 6
Forest 6-12 (depending how you calculate it)

Still think we're poor in this regard?

I don't know the reason why the other teams conceded late, I've suggested why I believe we conceded the late goals.

ByTheRiver

Quote from: Plodder on July 11, 2020, 08:01:54 PM
Whatever the pros and cons of Parker as a manager, one indisputable fact is that his forte this season has been closing out games. Fulham has the best record in the division of going on to win once they have taken the lead, according to the Sky coverage last night.

This.

I have criticised Parker for many things this season but this is one area where he is absolutely above and beyond any criticism. It's remarkable to the point of being spooky/otherworldly how many games we've hung on to a lead, won by one goal, etc.

It may mean 5 at the back (or 7 like the other week!) but it works ridiculously well. He's like an 80s Serie A type manager in that respect. Of all the things to criticise, I think this is last.

Tabby

The big problem isn't not closing games out, it is allowing opposition teams to close out games.


WindyCity

Auto promo lost during first 7-8 games of the season with many points dropped.  Not to mention that drubbing at CC from bottom table Barnsley.  All the games count.  Especially those games right out of the box.  Look at what Brentford has done since restart. 

Jim©

23 games where we've taken the lead, 20 wins and 3 draws. That's impressive and the best in the division. I'd debate the inclusion of the Brentford (h) result in that "closing out" of games personally as we've nicked wins in the last few minutes too.
We're resilient, tough to beat and on a bit of a roll. Bring on whoever.