Team Wednesday

[ALG01]

Since I want us to win the game in order to have a chance at autos, I would play our strongest side and not drop anyone because they might need a rest for the playoffs or give anyone a place because they need a run out. A few other thoughts:

- Don't understand why people wouldn't start Cairney because to me he is head and shoulders above the rest, but that is of course subjective.
- Kebano gets a chance to show that last game wasn't a one off, although history suggest it may unfortunately have been. Would love to be proved wrong.
- Johansen gets another chance instead of Arter, because of his history of playing well with Cairney (and because Arter is the Ream of our midfield and it's not good for my health with the two of them competing for setting up our opponents in the worst ways possible).
- Odoi loses out because I want more attacking full backs, but otherwise insert him instead of either of Bryan or Christie as I belive it's fairly even between the three of them (all fairly good Championship full backs).
- Think Knockaert has been playing well lately, and as such Reid is unfortunate to miss out (because Kebano surely cannot be dropped after scoring two and getting a penalty).
- I assume that Ivan and Kamara is still out, otherwise insert the first one for Jasper and if both are back also leave out MLM or Mawson.

Rodak
Christie Hector Ream Bryan
Johansen Onomah
Knockaert Cairney Kebano
Mitro

Subs: Betts, MLM, Mawson, Odoi, Sessegnon, Arter, Kmac, Reid, Jasper

I love TC in my opinion he is our best player by 100 miles but i would not start him for this one. History dictates in your biggest game play players that are 100% fit and i do not think he is. Coming on at around 60 mins if it isn't going well but wba and brentford also struggling may be the best strategy... i think this just may be a few days too early for him.

[The Rational Fan]

What's this love in with Mawson?
What's he done since being here apart from keep the docs busy?

Were you on holiday from August to December? He was ever present for the first half of this season and looked good despite being on his weaker side at RCB.

Statistics often tell us the obvious:
1. Ream performance decreases when he plays game close togethers,
2. Ream performance improves when he plays games a week apart.
3. Ream's weakness is he is not good at Aerial Duals.
4. Mawson doesn't have a weakness with Aerial Duals.
5. Cardiff's strengths are aerial duals and set pieces.
6. Ream's strength is setting up the start of attacks.

If we are 2-0 up against Cardiff in the last playoff semi-final 30 minutes left under constant Aerial Attack, should Mawson come on for Ream? I think so, as statistics stated Ream lost 80% aerial duals against Sheffield Wednesday.

If Mawson is possible a substitute, then he needs to play against Wigan. We cannot afford a repeat performance of Watford or Newcastle when he came back from injury in the playoff finals.

[clarkey]

Be absolutely mad to bring in Mawson, untried and unfit most likely. Leave him where he is. Crazy to try him, that would be suicide.

Cairney is not fit enough either, but great to have him on bench. Start with SteJo whatever you do. Arter and Onomah too.
Then AK and Mitro up top with Bobby Reid in number 10 role.

Ream, Hector, Christie and Odoi. Keep it tight.   No Harrison Reid, why have we not signed him yet ?

[Statto]

Be absolutely mad to bring in Mawson, untried and unfit most likely. Leave him where he is. Crazy to try him, that would be suicide.

Cairney is not fit enough either, but great to have him on bench. Start with SteJo whatever you do. Arter and Onomah too.
Then AK and Mitro up top with Bobby Reid in number 10 role.

Ream, Hector, Christie and Odoi. Keep it tight.   No Harrison Reid, why have we not signed him yet ?

This will be the fifth match that he's been on the bench. So query whether he's unfit.

And he's started 25 games this season. So if he's "untried" then so are Hector, Christie, Reed, Johansen, Kebano and Arter, all of whom have been "tried" less in the starting XI this season.

[Arthur]

Statistics often tell us the obvious:
1. Ream performance decreases when he plays game close togethers,
2. Ream performance improves when he plays games a week apart.

Wednesday night was Ream's eighth match in just 26 days. I've no figures on Ream's performances to hand, but the Wigan game was, from an observer's point of view, arguably Tim's best since lockdown. So how do the statistics tell us that Ream's game has been in decline throughout this period?

And if, moreover, the statistics do show Ream's performances are falling away, how does this compare with other footballers? After all, common sense suggests that most players will be fresher if their games are a week apart rather than a few days.

3. Ream's weakness is he is not good at Aerial Duals.

...as statistics stated Ream lost 80% aerial duals against Sheffield Wednesday.

Do tell me your point 3 is not based on just one game.

And even taking that single statistic in isolation: How many of the aerial duels were against Nuhiu? And what percentage does Nuhiu typically win against defenders no taller than 6' 2"? Knowing these two additional statistics may put Ream's 80% in a somewhat different light.

4. Mawson doesn't have a weakness with Aerial Duals.

If we are 2-0 up against Cardiff in the last playoff semi-final 30 minutes left under constant Aerial Attack, should Mawson come on for Ream? I think so...

Here. in my opinion, is an example, of a reliance on statistics meaning one sometimes 'can't see the wood for the trees'.

In this scenario, surely the sensible substitution is not Mawson for Ream, but Mawson for Knockaert, or BDR, or Arter, or Kebano etc, all of whom are likely to be even less useful than Tim in helping resist a barrage of high balls.

[The Rational Fan]

Ream's poor performances against Forest (H), Luton(A), Reading (H), Barnsley (H), Leeds (A), and Wednesday (H) are all within breaks between games of less than 6 days, while poor statistically performances with longer breaks are rare for Ream.

When has Ream performed poorly when his break has been between 6 and 15 days? Not often. Every player performs better with a break, but older players more so and if statistics come to that conclusion they are probably correct.

I admit by the statement that Mawson is better in the air than Ream is backed up by statistics of one game, but if you watch other games, then Ream is going to struggle in the air against Cardiff even if he plays well in other areas. Ream is not terrible in the air, but Mawson is better and some Cardiff players will cause both problems.

You are correct, if we want to close out the game Mawson for Knockaert would be a more sensible substitution than taking off Ream, but my point was it would have been good to give Mawson a game against Wigan preparing him for off the bench gametime and Ream a rest for the semi-final.

[Statto]

surely the sensible substitution is not Mawson for Ream, but Mawson for Knockaert, or BDR, or Arter, or Kebano etc

So you want to play Mawson on the wing? Are you Felix Magath?

086.gif

[Statto]

Ream's poor performances against Forest (H), Luton(A), Reading (H), Barnsley (H), Leeds (A), and Wednesday (H) are all within breaks between games of less than 6 days, while poor statistically performances with longer breaks are rare for Ream.

When has Ream performed poorly when his break has been between 6 and 15 days? Not often. Every player performs better with a break, but older players more so and if statistics come to that conclusion they are probably correct.

I admit by the statement that Mawson is better in the air than Ream is backed up by statistics of one game, but if you watch other games, then Ream is going to struggle in the air against Cardiff even if he plays well in other areas. Ream is not terrible in the air, but Mawson is better and some Cardiff players will cause both problems.

You are correct, if we want to close out the game Mawson for Knockaert would be a more sensible substitution than taking off Ream, but my point was it would have been good to give Mawson a game against Wigan preparing him for off the bench gametime and Ream a rest for the semi-final.

+1

Ream's most woeful, absolutely criminally woeful, performances before Christmas were very consistently coinciding with him not having had much recovery time, to an extent that clearly exceeded the other players' mild fatigue. You don't need stats to tell you that if you went to those games.

Similarly I don't need stats to tell me that Ream is weak in the air. I cannot recall seeing a weaker CB than Ream since my schoolboy football days, and even then, once you got to the age of 13 or 14 most CBs would be stronger than Ream.

[Arthur]

Ream's poor performances against Forest (H), Luton(A), Reading (H), Barnsley (H), Leeds (A), and Wednesday (H) are all within breaks between games of less than 6 days, while poor statistically performances with longer breaks are rare for Ream.

When has Ream performed poorly when his break has been between 6 and 15 days? Not often.

I don't have the advantage of seeing the statistics you are using, but I think I can still contribute a worthwhile piece of analysis to put alongside yours. To this end, I shall assume the statistics for the six games you have listed do indicate that these were poor performances by Ream.

The first step I shall take is to point out that there was a seven-day break prior to the game at Leeds. The upshot of this, of course, is that this now transfers from the category of games with 'less than a six-day break' to become one of Ream's poor performances in the pool of games 'after a six-day break or longer'.

What am I contributing? An analysis of how this season's matches have been spread out.

Of the 44 league matches Ream played:

• 19 gave Tim at least a six-day break;
• 25 provided him with less than a six-day break.

And within the 25, there have been, according to your list, 5 statistically poor performances.

You don't put a number to Ream's poor performances following a six-day break or longer but, from the error in your list, I know now of Leeds. And since you say such performances after six days' rest are 'rare' and 'not often' (rather than 'non-existent'), I can presume there must be at least one other this season.

So there have been at least 2 poor performances in the 19.

2 out of 19 and 5 out of 25 is not enough of a distinction. The difference could easily be co-incidental or attributable to other factors – for example, the possibility I alluded to in my previous post that all 6' 2" centre-backs have a low success percentage in aerial duels with Nuhiu.


May I also go on to say that your subtle yet arbitrary shift of the criteria between posts did not go unnoticed. In your original post (and in similar posts about Ream over the past couple of seasons, as best I can recall), you use the time span of a week as his optimum recovery period. One week: 7 days. Now, however, you have reduced this figure to 6 days – which conveniently serves to bolster your argument. For if a seven-day break is the benchmark for Tim's well-being, then this season's figures read even less convincingly:

• 2 poor games out of 14 with a seven-day break
• 5 poor out of the 30 games with less time in between.

I could employ the same manoeuvre myself. If I follow your lead and make an arbitrary decision that 5 days is sufficient time for Ream to recover,  this present a swing of three matches in your favour, but one of those matches – Luton – follows the same path as Leeds and becomes counter-evidence to your theory.

On this basis, therefore, we would be looking at 3 poor games out of 22 (5-day break) compared with 4 poor matches out of 22 (less than 5-day break). Clearly inconclusive.

So what there is, in my opinion, is a theory - that Ream is more likely (than the norm) to turn in a poor performance if he doesn't have sufficient rest - which appears inconclusive on a 5-, 6- and 7-day benchmark to a lesser or greater degree

Edit: I have corrected my own mistake - adding and subtracting in the wrong direction. (It showed my weakness at statistics.)

[Sting of the North]

Ream's poor performances against Forest (H), Luton(A), Reading (H), Barnsley (H), Leeds (A), and Wednesday (H) are all within breaks between games of less than 6 days, while poor statistically performances with longer breaks are rare for Ream.

When has Ream performed poorly when his break has been between 6 and 15 days? Not often. Every player performs better with a break, but older players more so and if statistics come to that conclusion they are probably correct.

I admit by the statement that Mawson is better in the air than Ream is backed up by statistics of one game, but if you watch other games, then Ream is going to struggle in the air against Cardiff even if he plays well in other areas. Ream is not terrible in the air, but Mawson is better and some Cardiff players will cause both problems.

You are correct, if we want to close out the game Mawson for Knockaert would be a more sensible substitution than taking off Ream, but my point was it would have been good to give Mawson a game against Wigan preparing him for off the bench gametime and Ream a rest for the semi-final.

Ream also had quite a good game against Cardiff very recently without a long break before the game. In that game he seemed to be able to deal well with whatever was thrown his way. In any case, Ream will start every playoff game unless he is injured or suspended. We were also not in a position to not start with what Parker believes would be our strongest team against Wigan, so starting Mawson was likely never even considered. I don't agree with Parker, but clearly if he preferred Mawson over Ream he has seemingly had several weeks to change.

[Arthur]

surely the sensible substitution is not Mawson for Ream, but Mawson for Knockaert, or BDR, or Arter, or Kebano etc

So you want to play Mawson on the wing? Are you Felix Magath?

086.gif

Indeed, we should make use of his pace.