Exclude Fulham - bottom 3?

[Whitesideup]

Last year down at the local in Jan or Feb, a group of about 7 or 8 of us had a fiver on naming the bottom 3. The prize was unclaimed. It turned out to be harder than we thought. 

So which teams can you see finishing below us, or rather in the bottom 3?  Sheff Utd and West Brom look likely candidates already.  Burnley, Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Brighton? Could any others be dragged into bottom 6? How about Leeds  ...or indeed Villa? Southampton or West Ham anyone? Take out the big 6 and that only leaves Everton, Leicester and Wolves, and I'd be surprised if anyone chose one of those three. Views?

[filham]

As time goes by it is looking more and more as if the big clubs are dominating. therefore look out for Newcasle and  Villa soon to join the big six to make the big eight.
Wolves and Liecester  and Leeds could make up the top eleven..
The remaining nine will be scrambling for points all season , impossible to predict at this stage who are likely to be the bottom three, lets think again after Christmas.

[Riversider]

Before a ball had even been kicked I said on here Burnley, Sheff Utd and WBA and nothing yet has made me change my mind,
I think those three and us are the stand out teams in the relegation mini league, I can't honestly see anybody else being involved, the results between the four are absolutely vital , think you will have to win the mini league (results wise) to stand any chance of staying up,
Looking at the mini league I think 8 of our players all walk into their sides , now we need a slice of luck and great management,  think we've got the best ream but I'm not sure we've got the best manager out of the four (at least at this present time anyway)

[Pluto]

I think it'll likely be between ourselves, West Brom, Sheffield Utd and Burnley; with the possibility that a team from the "tier above" - Brighton, Palace, Leeds - could be dragged into it if they get unlucky with injuries or a bad run of form.

Beyond that you have the Newcastle, Southampton, West Ham, Wolves tier and I just don't see any of those sides dropping.

Big gap in quality between the bottom teams and the rest this season as far as I see it.

[General]

I think if we stay up, with the Khan's backing and continued learning we could become a solid top 10 team. They're one of the premierships richest owners. We just need that initial stability. Whether we do better than that, will also depend on how much they can and want to invest. We'll be 17th based on our capacity (match day revenue etc) when we've got the stadium up to 30,000.

If we get an extra 5,000 we'd go upto 12th biggest stadium. At that point, I'm wondering what our total capacity could be if we developed the ground to it's capacity. Does that include the Johnny Haynes stand? I don't think so... unless someone keeps the stand as is, whilst building an extra tier over it. Could we push 40,000 capacity? That'd take us to around 9th/10th in the league on stadium size (around Chelsea and Everton), which in this day and age would put you in the region of being a solid premiership team through size, appeal and revenue. That draw would see us attract a more ambitious type of player (bigger crowds) and perhaps a better team by default.


There are a few teams based on performances where we could do better than or be close too.

West Brom, Burnley, Leeds (they tend to burn themselves out, which will be less forgiving when happens in the premiership), Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Sheffield Utd, Brighton and whilst I have been impressed by how they've done so far, perhaps West Ham may be in the mix. That's eight teams already in the mix.

I'd also be interested to follow what Wolves are doing as I think our game against them was quite close.

We need confidence and that'll come from getting points (draws or wins) and putting in increasingly better performances, which I think will come as players get fitness up to scratch and get to know one another and the likes of Kongolo and Andersen come back.

I also think we're going to be more able to spend and improve weaker areas in January, which I'm not too sure other clubs around us can.

[Jim©]

By some crazy data thing that I've been looking at the last few seasons, I predict bottom 3 of Newcastle, W Brom, Sheff Utd, closely followed by Palace, us, Burnley.

Injuries mean a lot to the squads that "depend" on certain players. For instance if W Brom lost Periera or Newcastle lost Wilson, things can and do change even more (hence the difficulty in predicting).

[Wingnut]

I'd prefer to hold judgement until Christmas but I think we'll battle for survival along with West Brom, Sheffield Utd, Burnley, Brighton and Palace, for most of the season. Teams like West Ham and Southampton are capable of going on a terrible run and flirting with relegation but I can't see them going down. I think that Brighton and Palace will do enough to stay up with a few games to spare and it'll be three from four at the end of the season. If we manage to stay up this year, I think we have an owner who has the ambition to turn us into a solid PL side, like we were under Roy. The next two home games are huge for us.

[Whitesideup]

Ah yes, Wingnut, at Christmas things may be clearer. Part of the fun though of predictions is seeing how the outcome meets or differs from your expectations.

Jim - good post and you have clear expectations. I think you could be onto a winner with Newcastle -  but with me agreeing that probably means they'll bag European qualification.

Riversider has gone with what I think the bookies would agree with.

But I just wonder if the "surprise" relegation contender, if not Newcastle, could be Palace - let's see how our game goes - or maybe even one of the other promoted teams, Villa or Leeds. Brighton and West Ham have impressed, both well-managed teams? but give them a bad run, could they lose their form? How about even Leicester as an outside bet, though I would need good odds before parting with any of the folding stuff.

[davew]

Sadly I can´t  exclude us from your poll, as I really think we will finish in the bottom 3 and results to date and the forthcoming fixtures only convince me that we won´t finish above 18th. A more encouraging performance last weekend and almost like watching a different team which I really enjoyed, but sadly our main/only true goalscorer had a real off day even by other performances lately, so we are still in trouble. My guess about the other 2 teams who will be relegated, no idea really there are probably 6 to choose from.

[Riversider]

Ah yes, Wingnut, at Christmas things may be clearer. Part of the fun though of predictions is seeing how the outcome meets or differs from your expectations.

Jim - good post and you have clear expectations. I think you could be onto a winner with Newcastle -  but with me agreeing that probably means they'll bag European qualification.

Riversider has gone with what I think the bookies would agree with.

But I just wonder if the "surprise" relegation contender, if not Newcastle, could be Palace - let's see how our game goes - or maybe even one of the other promoted teams, Villa or Leeds. Brighton and West Ham have impressed, both well-managed teams? but give them a bad run, could they lose their form? How about even Leicester as an outside bet, though I would need good odds before parting with any of the folding stuff.

Not sure the bookies were calling Burnley and Sheff Utd before had been kicked,
We just need to have a fighting chance come January, if we have then theres every chance that we will bring in that extra attacking option we possibly lack, dont think Burnley, Utd and WBA have that luxury.

[Whitesideup]

Ah yes, Wingnut, at Christmas things may be clearer. Part of the fun though of predictions is seeing how the outcome meets or differs from your expectations.

Jim - good post and you have clear expectations. I think you could be onto a winner with Newcastle -  but with me agreeing that probably means they'll bag European qualification.

Riversider has gone with what I think the bookies would agree with.

But I just wonder if the "surprise" relegation contender, if not Newcastle, could be Palace - let's see how our game goes - or maybe even one of the other promoted teams, Villa or Leeds. Brighton and West Ham have impressed, both well-managed teams? but give them a bad run, could they lose their form? How about even Leicester as an outside bet, though I would need good odds before parting with any of the folding stuff.

Not sure the bookies were calling Burnley and Sheff Utd before had been kicked,
We just need to have a fighting chance come January, if we have then theres every chance that we will bring in that extra attacking option we possibly lack, dont think Burnley, Utd and WBA have that luxury.

Riversider - you are of course quite correct, and I was referring to current odds.  At the start of the season Burnley and Sheff Utd were something like 6th and 8th favourites for relegation, being ahead of the likes of Newcastle and Palace. The big movers out of the reckoning are Villa who at the start were third favourites. Unsurprisingly, now you can get very good odds if you believe Villa might be relegated. Equally unsurprisingly we are still clear favourites - hope we see those odds move with some impressive performances!

[rebel]

Villa, West Ham and Sheff Utd or West Brom.

[Whitesideup]

Villa, West Ham and Sheff Utd or West Brom.

Rebel, I like the Villa call. Be interesting to see what happens when their bubble bursts !! And West Ham !