Author Topic: Tuesday Fulham Stuff - 17/11/20...  (Read 724 times)

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Tuesday Fulham Stuff - 17/11/20...
« on: November 17, 2020, 12:02:25 AM »
The Butterfly Effect and the impact of Parker’s fine margins
It’s time to stop asking “what if?” and start making the most of the chances offered to us, as Mike Forrest explains.

“The nose of Cleopatra: had it been shorter, the face of the entire world would have been changed.” This aphorism, a remark made by 17th century mathematician Blaise Pascal – famous for the eponymous philosophical argument ‘Pascal’s Wager’- suggests that small factors can have a major impact on the course of history.

For if Cleopatra’s nose had been smaller then she would have not embodied the sense of
indomitability and fortitude that she did possess. In this alternate reality perhaps Julius Cesar and Marc Antony both fail to be enchanted by Cleopatra with the smaller nose. This leads to wars being avoided and history charts a different course.

At its core, the proposition is stating that chance is an invisible hand, which has a firm grip on the course that history takes. Of course, you are probably aware of this theory by another name – ‘the butterfly effect’. Scott Parker refers to it as ‘fine margins’.

A game of fine margins
Scott Parker first mentioned ‘fine margins’, and them not breaking in our favour, on the 4th May 2019, after 1 – 0 defeat to Wolves. It’s a theme that he’s echoed again on Fulham’s return to the Premier League. After the opening day defeat to Arsenal, losing 3-0, Parker said, “The fine margins at this level is that you need to be a bit more ruthless when chances fall.” After the 2-1 defeat to Crystal Palace Parker again implored his team to make the most of the margins when they finally break in our favour: “The team is learning about the dynamics and the fine margins of this division”.

Football is a game where a minimum of 22 players start the match and proceed to kick the ball around for the next 90 minutes or so. The final score at the end of the match, and the allocation of points, are the only absolute truths. What occurred during the 90 minutes is subjective to the individual narrative of the person watching. It’s subjective to the ‘what if’ type of analyses. It is alternative butterfly effect theories applied to the match.

Ifs, buts and maybes
Take our most recent game at the London Stadium. A West Ham fan might have felt that Fulham missing their penalty balanced the scale of fine margins back to parity. After all, the Hammers had clipped the bar several times and Areola made numerous good saves. A Fulham supporter might feel that the fine margins were against them. They had defended resolutely for 90 minutes and only an offside goal consigned them to defeat.

This sort of debate is part of what makes football so enthralling and addictive, but the scoreboard and the league table don’t lie. We’ve had numerous opportunities to take advantage of the fine margins that have fallen our way, but we’ve failed to do so.

This season at Wolves, at 1-0 down, we broke with Mitrovic who teed the ball to Kamara, giving us a great opportunity to equalise and perhaps secure a point – Kamara scuffed his shot. At Sheffield United, we survived a first half onslaught, took the lead through Lookman. Mitrovic misses a penalty, a couple of sitters, and gives away a penalty which Sheff Utd score to take a point. At West Ham, VAR fails to spot an offside goal and we miss a penalty to equalise. On the flipside, West Brom could have easily taken a 1-0 lead if their mishit cross had dipped a little lower instead of off the bar.

In an alternate reality, just as with Cleopatra’s small nose, we could have an extra four points to our existing four-point tally (one v Wolves, two v Sheff Utd, and one v West Ham). No one would have foreseen that after our start.

Make our own luck
Everton will be licking their lips and view us as an easy win. They’ll be looking to get their season back on track after four games without a win and only one point earned. If recent games are to go by, we should be competitive at the very least. Regardless of who deserves the credit for more recent sturdy performances, the coach or the players, the game is another opportunity for the players to prove their Premier League worth.

Everton have a temperamental goalkeeper and have conceded nine goals in their last four games. A permeable defence could be the perfect chance for the likes of Lookman, Mitrovic or Loftus-Cheek to start capitalising on the fine margins when they present themselves.

If they do, and we get our noses in front in the race for survival, who knows how that might impact our history.



https://www.fulhamish.co.uk/post/2020-11-16-the-butterfly-effect-and-the-impact-of-parkers-fine-margins/

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Re: Tuesday Fulham Stuff - 17/11/20...
« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2020, 12:03:37 AM »
Premier League announce stark rise in positive Covid-19 cases as weekly high recorded

The top flight has announced 16 new positive cases among players and staff - a weekly high despite the second-lowest number of cases being carried out due to the international break

Premier League bosses have announced 16 new positive cases - which is a new record weekly high.

They confirmed that 1,207 players and staff were tested between Monday, November 9 and Sunday, November 15, and that resulted in the sudden rise.

The previous weekly high figure was 10 and this will set alarm bells ringing especially as the number of tests were down because players were away on international duty and were tested by their national associations.

It will set alarm bells ringing among Premier League clubs that as soon as players are released for international duty then it results in a rush of positive tests.

That is far greater than at any time during Project Restart and will raise a moral debate if the numbers continue to rise.

On Monday night, the Egyptian FA confirmed Arsenal midfielder Mohamed Elneny had tested positive for coronavirus and would have to self isolate.

he 28-year-old's agent Alan Nazmy also took to Twitter to write: "Elneny Positive Cov19 get well soon."

 Elneny joins fellow Egypt star Mohamed Salah in quarantine after the Liverpool forward tested positive for the virus last Friday, days after attending his brother's wedding in Cairo.

While Salah, 28, may return to the United Kingdom on Thursday if he returns a negative coronavirus test, he will play no part in the tie with Leicester on Sunday due to the Premier League's protocols.

 Elsewhere, Tottenham right-back Matt Doherty will play no part in Saturday's clash with Manchester City after testing positive for Covid-19 with Republic of Ireland.

The 1,207 tests carried out over the last week is the second-lowest number for the season, due in large part to the international break.

During the first week of the October international break, 1,128 players and staff were tested, though only nine tests returned new positive cases.



https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/premier-league-positive-covid-cases-23020799

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Re: Tuesday Fulham Stuff - 17/11/20...
« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2020, 12:05:08 AM »
Joy For Rodák

Marek Rodák secured Slovakia's place in the 2020 European Championships on Thursday evening, with an extra-time goal courtesy of Michal Duris handing his side a 2-1 win against Northern Ireland.

Rodák made a number of vital saves to ensure Slovakia progressed to the finals and will now look forward to competing with Spain, Poland and Sweden in this summer's delayed tournament.

It was heartache for Aleksandar Mitrović, as his missed penalty in a shootout resulted in Scotland advancing and Serbia being eliminated from the competition. In a tight affair, it was a late equaliser from Luka Jovic that cancelled out Ryan Christie's opener and took the game to extra-time.

Serbia looked the most likely after that but couldn't find the crucial goal which would see them qualify into England's group. It was joy for Scotland, who qualified for a major tournament for the first time since 1998.

Frank Anguissa was on the scoresheet for Cameroon, who recorded a comfortable 4-1 win against Mozambique in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers. Anguissa's header put the hosts out of reach and the win takes them to the summit of Group F, with seven points.

Antonee Robinson featured for The United States, who took on Wales in an international friendly. The left-back featured for the full 90 minutes and helped his side to a clean sheet, while Tim Ream remained on the substitutes bench.



https://www.fulhamfc.com/news/2020/november/Joy-For-Rod-k/


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Re: Tuesday Fulham Stuff - 17/11/20...
« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2020, 12:05:49 AM »
FA Youth Cup Third Round Draw

Fulham Under-18s have been drawn an away tie against the winners of a second round match between Ipswich Town and Chelmsford City.

The third round fixtures aim to be completed by Saturday 12 December 2020.

Steve Wigley's side will hope to continue their impressive form after the international break, having won five of their opening six league games.

Further details regarding fixture date and time will be provided in due course.



https://www.fulhamfc.com/news/2020/november/FA-Youth-Cup-Third-Round-Draw/

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Re: Tuesday Fulham Stuff - 17/11/20...
« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2020, 08:52:35 AM »

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Re: Tuesday Fulham Stuff - 17/11/20...
« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2020, 10:10:17 AM »
No more talk of "fine margins", solid 2-0 home win absolutely essential to keep our feet from paddling in in that bottom three pool.
Come on Mitro, a scorcher from the edge of the box and another from Frank drilling down on his newly found confidence.