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Are we 3 wins away from staying up

Started by Lambo, March 08, 2021, 10:52:08 AM

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Lambo

I'm sure a little while back someone did analysis of how many points were going to needed to stay up and 35 pts was the figure if memory serves me right. If that is the case then we are 3 wins away from achieving that number with 10 games to go. Looking at our current form and the games we have to play that looks very achievable.

filham

Right from the start of the season the safety target has been 40 points, it still is. Brighton ,Newcastle and Burnley are above us right now and each of them are capable of reaching 40 points.

A way to go yet, lets concentrate on our next match, a point against City on Saturday would be great but most likely leave us in the relegation zone.


Andy S

Check out Newcastle and Brighton's fixtures. I cannot see them getting 40 points


Statto

I reckon it'll be more like 38-40 pts. We don't know if course but I wouldn't want to rely on it being as low as 35pts.

With our form as draw specialists IMO something like WW DDDDDD LL (obviously not necessarily in that order) is an achievable path to safety.


Lordedmundo

No - I think we are probably 3 wins and 2 draws (giving us 37 points) from being assured that another win against Newcastle on the last day will keep us up.  Although, I think we are capable of winning at least 3, I think there is also a possibility that we need to edge towards that points total with draws - so maybe 2 wins and 5 draws for example.

However, I don't believe either Newcastle or Brighton will get more points than that prior to the last game, so hopeful that one or both will be on 34 points or less prior to the last fixture. I would like to think that a win or draw at Southampton will make us safe, although Newcastle have a winnable game at Sheffield Utd on 15 May, so I guess it may still go to the wire...

Artful Dodger

On current form, we are capable of being safe before the last day because I really hope we don't have to get a result to stay up on the last day of the season. With VAR this season, there are just too many variables that could mean it all goes wrong!
Faber est suae quisque fortunae


bencher

Just as we have won games we were not expected to, you'd have to assume Newcastle and Brighton will too. Brighton also won at Anfield, while Newcastle got a backs to the wall win at Everton. This isn't over by a long way, and both of these teams also don't concede or score too many goals. Goal difference may well come into it. You can be that momentum and team spirit will too. If we'd been offered this position at the start of the season I'd have taken it. But there's a lot of tough games to come. We may well do better in games v e.g. Arsenal or Wolves than we will do against e.g. Burnley or Newcastle.

SuffolkWhite

I feel 37 points but it is wide open tbh, our form is good and we don't fear anyone! start scoring and we will be out of site of the other relegation contenders come the last game of the season. Could be we just need a draw last game because the goal difference is better, but its enjoyable isn't it  049:gif
Guy goes into the doctor's.
"Doc, I've got a cricket ball stuck up my backside
"How's that?"
"Don't you start"

RaySmith

Too tense for me, though great when we  win, or even draw  v top teams, except we need wins.

For our survival to depend on the result in the final game v Newcastle seems a nightmare.
Hopefully, we can ensure Prem safety before that game!


ALG01

Quote from: RaySmith on March 08, 2021, 12:48:24 PM
Too tense for me, though great when we  win, or even draw  v top teams, except we need wins.

For our survival to depend on the result in the final game v Newcastle seems a nightmare.
Hopefully, we can ensure Prem safety before that game!

I agree with your whole post. We have been through it all before so often but it is getting more tense. i think not going to the game is worse!
I suspoect we will need 38points + to survive.

Riversider

I can't see either Burnley or Brighton getting more than 36 points,
But Leeds at home is a massive MUST win for us, and it won't be easy, it's also the same weekend that Brighton play Newcastle.

FFC In Oz

4 wins I think is our magic mark (or 3 wins + 3 draws).

Get to 38 points and we should be safe.


ChesterTheTabby

After that display against Liverpool, and honestly our displays since December, we can beat ANYONE. Period. No doubt about it. We're staying up.
Someone once asked me, "Why Fulham?".
My response, "Well, lad, you just haven't seen the light yet"

Cookie6262

Obviously 40 points is the goal to stay up but given the start to season we had I would take 38 right now and see how the chips fall.... 3 wins 3 draws 4 defeats im praying will be enough.

If it's a case of having to beat Newcastle last days so be it, given that bookies were paying out on our relegation after 8 games getting to final game with a shout of staying up is a miracle  itself.

Jim©

If we can carry our 10 game form into the last ten games, we'd finish on 40 points. That'd also mean we probably wouldn't have a last day shootout v Newcastle (we probably shouldn't need to after the poor reffing in the game at theirs).


roberto w6

In my view we have to shoot for 40 points to be sure of staying up, so another 14 pts over 10 games. To get us there we need any of the following:

1. 5 wins and 5 losses 
2. 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses
3. 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses
4. 2 wins and 8 draws

Of course option no. 4 goes out the window if we lose against Man City and we'd then have to win a minimum of 3.

It's tough but COYW!


bencher

If we win our next 5 we can head to Stamford Bridge already safe. That would be fun.

Alternatively, wouldn't it be nice to win 4 out of the next 5 and then beat Chelsea at their patch to stay up!

WestSussexWhite

I'm 99% sure if we get 37-38 points we stay up


WolverineFFC

Quote from: Lambo on March 08, 2021, 10:52:08 AM
I'm sure a little while back someone did analysis of how many points were going to needed to stay up and 35 pts was the figure if memory serves me right. If that is the case then we are 3 wins away from achieving that number with 10 games to go. Looking at our current form and the games we have to play that looks very achievable.

There are 7 matches remaining where not getting a result would be disappointing. Arsenal, Newcastle, Southampton, Leeds, Wolves, Villa, and Burnley. 4 wins in those matches with or without some draws would do the trick. While not expecting it, a draw or win against Chelsea, Man United, or even Citeh would not completely shock me either on the team's current form.


Jimpav

39 points should do it.

If we keep this run of form up we could sneak 16th place.

Don't want to get ahead of ourselves though - goals are still very thin on the ground.