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Are we 3 wins away from staying up

Started by Lambo, March 08, 2021, 10:52:08 AM

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Woolly Mammoth

We should target achieving at a minimum 14 more points out of a possible 30 points. There is lots of good reasons why we can reach that amount as our good form is no coincidence especially as the likes of Brighton, Burnley and Newcastle will be also fighting for every point.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

Denver Fulham

#21
It's impossible to state "X points will be enough" without knowing whether that includes a win over Newcastle. For the Newcastle game not to matter, we need to gain four more points on them in our next nine matches (10 for them). That's not impossible, and that's what I'd be shooting for.

Assume City is a 0. The next four are against mid-table teams we haven't seen again since they beat us with our bad initial roster. I think we need to shoot for seven points against Leeds, Villa, Wolves and Arsenal. Chelsea, unless they tail off a bit, will be difficult. Give us a 0 there. We'd be on 33 points heading into the Burnley and So'ton games. No reason to think we can't be on 37 heading to Old Trafford. Maybe they have nothing to play for, but a loss there means we'd need Newcastle to only pick up 7 points from their next 10 matches before the finale. Possible, I suppose, but feels like we need a point or three more than this to make the finale irrelevant to us.

At the very, very least, we need to be even with them heading into MD37, when we're at Old Trafford and they're home to Sheff Utd, to make sure we're not dead to them before the finale if things don't go well on MD37.

(tl;dr I think I'm saying ~39 points should be enough. Either we get there by beating Newcastle, or we accumulate that before then and it's good enough to stay ahead of someone else. Beating Burnley leaves us only one point behind them as things stand, so they're still a real target, too)

The Rock

We have been a mid table team since December. If we get relegated, we will be the best team to get relegated in football history.

Let's hope the Khan's reluctance to pay/act quick enough to get the proper players doesn't come back to bite us.


The Rational Fan

Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on March 08, 2021, 11:16:29 PM
We should target achieving at a minimum 14 more points out of a possible 30 points. There is lots of good reasons why we can reach that amount as our good form is no coincidence especially as the likes of Brighton, Burnley and Newcastle will be also fighting for every point.

We should be happy to get one point against Man City, Man United and Chelsea; the other seven games we should be aiming for 3 points each game. We are aiming for 24 points, we need 10-14 points depending on other games. So, we need success in 50% of our games.

ALG01

Quote from: roberto w6 on March 08, 2021, 01:53:00 PM
In my view we have to shoot for 40 points to be sure of staying up, so another 14 pts over 10 games. To get us there we need any of the following:

1. 5 wins and 5 losses 
2. 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses
3. 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses
4. 2 wins and 8 draws

Of course option no. 4 goes out the window if we lose against Man City and we'd then have to win a minimum of 3.

It's tough but COYW!

I think we should try and win every game  064.gif but I agree 40 points should probably be enough. Sooner rather than later.

Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: The Rational Fan on March 09, 2021, 03:11:25 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on March 08, 2021, 11:16:29 PM
We should target achieving at a minimum 14 more points out of a possible 30 points. There is lots of good reasons why we can reach that amount as our good form is no coincidence especially as the likes of Brighton, Burnley and Newcastle will be also fighting for every point.

We should be happy to get one point against Man City, Man United and Chelsea; the other seven games we should be aiming for 3 points each game. We are aiming for 24 points, we need 10-14 points depending on other games. So, we need success in 50% of our games.

Yes and by achieving that we will be safe.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.


bill taylors apprentice

I mentioned a while back that 35 may be enough.

My reasoning is that we could have as many as 37 points going into the last game of the season with Newcastle 2 points adrift but if they beat us (fulhamish!) last game of the season they can spoil all our good work.

But if we fail to overhaul them by the last game of the season and we are behind by 2 or 3 points and only on 32, a win would do the business for us!

Of course there's lots of permutations.

Riversider

Sorry to keep repeating myself but I still don't think Newcastle are the issue, especially when their star players come back shortly, for me its all about Brighton and Burnley,  and I absolutely think we can overtake at least one of them.

FFC In Oz

Quote from: Riversider on March 09, 2021, 02:18:26 PM
Sorry to keep repeating myself but I still don't think Newcastle are the issue, especially when their star players come back shortly, for me its all about Brighton and Burnley,  and I absolutely think we can overtake at least one of them.

What do you mean Newcastle aren't the issue?

Do you mean that we realistically can't catch them and are more likely to overtake Burnley or Brighton?

For what it's worth I think Brighton are very similar to us - a well-organised side who are difficult to break down but have problems scoring goals.

Burnley (as per every year) look ordinary on paper but Dyche always finds a way to grind out enough results to keep them in the league.

Newcastle in my opinion are the ones we need to focus on.  It will be difficult for them to pick up enough points with the likes of Wilson, St Maximin and Almiron out, and their leader in the backline (Schar) out also.


Statto

Quote from: FFC In Oz on March 09, 2021, 02:56:07 PM
Quote from: Riversider on March 09, 2021, 02:18:26 PM
Sorry to keep repeating myself but I still don't think Newcastle are the issue, especially when their star players come back shortly, for me its all about Brighton and Burnley,  and I absolutely think we can overtake at least one of them.

What do you mean Newcastle aren't the issue?

Do you mean that we realistically can't catch them and are more likely to overtake Burnley or Brighton?

For what it's worth I think Brighton are very similar to us - a well-organised side who are difficult to break down but have problems scoring goals.

Burnley (as per every year) look ordinary on paper but Dyche always finds a way to grind out enough results to keep them in the league.

Newcastle in my opinion are the ones we need to focus on.  It will be difficult for them to pick up enough points with the likes of Wilson, St Maximin and Almiron out, and their leader in the backline (Schar) out also.

Inclined to agree. Newcastle's best players aren't coming back (at least to full fitness) any time soon and it sounds like Bruce has lost the dressing room. They're now favourites to finish 17th, and that's for good reason.

With that said, we all know how the game goes, you can guarantee someone down our end of the table will turn their form around, and someone else will capitulate, and who knows which will be which? That's why IMO it's so beneficial that there are three other teams in the mix with us, not just one.

I also think Burnley have the most inherently crap squad in the league. On that metric they should be about 14th in the Championship.

RoyTund

Run through a few predictors and 37 will prob be enough but it's so tight.