Championship Handicap 18/1 the field

[Donnie Lonegan]

It's 18/1 the field with William Hill in the Championship handicap, looking at the points start they are giving each team, who do you think might win it?
I think Fulham will do well this year, but I wouldn't go near them in this bet, will Swansea be much weaker this season?
As much as I despise them, I think QPR might do well in this, anyone got any thoughts?
At the beginning of each season I like to pick three or 4 teams from each division and do them in 5p accumulators.
Picking three teams in each division for 5p would cost you £4.05p to put on, but if you were successful you would see a return of £5487.20 for your money.

Fulham   0
West Brom   +3
Sheff Utd   +4
Bournemouth   +8
Middlesborough   +10
Swansea   +12
Cardiff   +12
Notts Forest   +12
Barnsley   +14
Stoke   +14
QPR   +16
Reading   +20
Luton   +20
Millwall   +20
Blackburn   +20
Preston   +22
Birmingham   +22
Bristol City   +22
Hull   +22
Coventry   +24
Huddersfield   +26
Derby   +26
Blackpool   +28
Peterborough   +28

[Donnie Lonegan]

I'll take that as a no then.

[General]

Not really a betting man in this respect and whilst I think I get it, the odds seem very long and speculative given all the moving parts and there's a fair bit of jargon I can't be bothered to get my head around.

[Donnie Lonegan]

It's not that difficult General, you just have to decide who you think would win the league if they all started with the points given.
For example, Barnsley got 78 points last season, and Nottingham Forest only got 52, yet Barnsley are still getting a 2 point higher start than Nottingham Forest.
This means that for whatever reason, the bookies think Nottingham Forest will do a lot better, or Barnsley will do a lot worse.

[MaximusDecimus]

 Bristol City at first glance but no idea what their squad is like now ? . I am presuming it is not as strong as in the past judging by their price ?

[Wolf]

I don't think anything screams value there. Maybe Bristol City and qpr

[The Rock]

The difference between the top of the table and bottom of the table is far greater than +28. So picking the few teams that will be potentially relegated at +28 is a poor trade. It mathematically only makes sense to pick the top few teams regardless of the few point differential.

That's mispriced.

[KevDev]

I like your bet Donnie, I've had a go on it myself

Cheers!

[Donnie Lonegan]

Well the handicap varies with different bookmakers, so I've done a few different bets with a number of them.
For instance 3 of the firms I looked at all gave QPR a 12 point start, but the 16 point start with William Hill, meant I played QPR with William Hills, and different teams with other bookies.
I also added up the total of the points in all the handicaps, and in the Championship three lots of bookies points totalled over 400, but with Ladbrokes it totalled 380, so if you want to do teams starting with a very low start, like Fulham and West Brom for instance, it makes sense to do them with Ladbrokes, because with the other bookies there are another 25 -30 points they would need to make up.
Obviously I realise that the non gamblers on here won't understand a lot of this.

[Donnie Lonegan]

three teams in each division = 81 x 10p accumulators, (cost £8.10) and if you get it right you draw just short of 11 grand.
I've also done some bets without bothering with Division two, for that I've done 5 teams in three divisions = 125 x 10p trebles (£12.50) comes to about £300 if I get it.
For me it's a bit of fun that can last most, or hopefully all of the football season.

[KevDev]

Yes, great returns for a lucky winner with small stake - let's see how we get on come the end of the season!