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Expected Goals (For and Against)

Started by fancyfeet4, December 01, 2022, 11:24:47 PM

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fancyfeet4

Its funny to me how much of a backlash to analytics there is.  You hear a lot of "all that matters in the final score,"  which is true in a sense.  But analytics and data like xGoals help provide context.  Any given match is a small sample size where outliers exist.  Even over 3 group play matches, fluky things can happen.  But xGoals (for or against) helps provide additional context to the match to determine whether the outcome was a bit luckier than the final score.  And over time, luck runs out and teams that dont create chances but win, or give up a lot of chances but dont concede, will regress to the mean.

In this case, Germany are out with a high expected goal total.  Now watching all 3 matches, I cant say for certain they "deserve" to be through because they had a high xG, but you can definitely argue they were a bit unlucky, and if in another group the outcomes might have been different.

I work in a field with heavy analytics, and it of course doesn't tell the full story, but it can provide a lot of context for whats going on and if used exclusively, you are missing out, but if used in conjunction with common sense, experience, and a bit of the eye test, its extremely valuable. 

Tempest

All that matters is the final score. That's it. Nothing else.

Stats of course are now part and parcel of the game, but they're not for me, zero interest in X goals, possession stats etc.

Did we win?
Did we play well?

Quickly change the conversation or leave if someone bangs on about stats. Talk about a crunching tackle, great goal, amazing saves or in Lukaku's case how the F did he not score.

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Live in Falmouth!

Sting of the North

Good post. Stats as a tool to add context and challenge one's understanding of the game is great. The results are not all that matters, but the way you play, the way you conduct yourself, and the way you set yourself up for future failure or success. Why otherwise discuss anything, and not just wait for the result? Stats are one part of the equation if you are humble enough to realise that you never get the full picture by watching (because you cannot observe everything at once) and at the same time realistic enough to understand that stats always need to be questioned and put into context. As with everything, use with care and in moderation and it will help confirm or challenge your own understandings.

In my opinion.


filham

There are lies, white lies and statistical lies.

Logicalman

Quote from: Tempest on December 02, 2022, 01:37:37 PM
All that matters is the final score. That's it. Nothing else.

Stats of course are now part and parcel of the game, but they're not for me, zero interest in X goals, possession stats etc.

Did we win?
Did we play well?

Quickly change the conversation or leave if someone bangs on about stats. Talk about a crunching tackle, great goal, amazing saves or in Lukaku's case how the F did he not score.

Sent from my SM-N976B using Tapatalk

With respect Tempest, i feel your second question in your answer belies your dismissive attitude towards Stats.

How do you know whether the team have performed well just from the final score? That cannot be determined without stats, whether those stats are team or player-centric, e.g. shots on goal by the team, compared to shots on goal by a player, passes completed, play percentage by zone, tackles made, etc. etc.

There is nothing wrong with dismissing stats as just another noise in the game, but they do provide a level of service when determining whether a team did perform as well as expected, I would suggest.

Logical is just in the name - don't expect it has anything to do with my thought process, because I AM the man who sold the world.

Logicalman

Quote from: filham on December 02, 2022, 02:47:00 PM
There are lies, white lies and statistical lies.

I believe the quote is just Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics, and all perfectly correct.
Logical is just in the name - don't expect it has anything to do with my thought process, because I AM the man who sold the world.


Tempest

Quote from: Logicalman on December 02, 2022, 02:51:52 PM
Quote from: Tempest on December 02, 2022, 01:37:37 PM
All that matters is the final score. That's it. Nothing else.

Stats of course are now part and parcel of the game, but they're not for me, zero interest in X goals, possession stats etc.

Did we win?
Did we play well?

Quickly change the conversation or leave if someone bangs on about stats. Talk about a crunching tackle, great goal, amazing saves or in Lukaku's case how the F did he not score.

Sent from my SM-N976B using Tapatalk

With respect Tempest, i feel your second question in your answer belies your dismissive attitude towards Stats.

How do you know whether the team have performed well just from the final score? That cannot be determined without stats, whether those stats are team or player-centric, e.g. shots on goal by the team, compared to shots on goal by a player, passes completed, play percentage by zone, tackles made, etc. etc.

There is nothing wrong with dismissing stats as just another noise in the game, but they do provide a level of service when determining whether a team did perform as well as expected, I would suggest.
It's my view, so yes dismissive of stats. I can see whether a team plays well, a player plays well, stats, in my view give players excuses, for example, stats say a player is tired, you tell a player often enough he's tired, he becomes tired, not only that you change his mindset, I can't play 2 or 3 games a week or I'll become tired.

I understand you feel stats are important but stats, in my view, make a simple game (and it is just a game) very complicated when, in my view it's not needed.

Just my view.

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Live in Falmouth!

bill taylors apprentice

One of the beauties of Football is you can be battered for the majority of the game but battle away and still win the game.
I don't see the televised games going on too much about analytics, they concentrate on the basic stats, passion and drama of the game

Despite having little possession, few chances etc etc a team can still win the game and analytics gain you nothing.
Its the worlds favourite sport for a reason, lets not spoil it.