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Bernd Leno...top shot-stopper in the Big 5 Euro Leagues???

Started by Chi_FFC, January 25, 2023, 04:40:15 PM

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Chi_FFC

Came across this stat which illustrates just how good Leno has been for us this season.

?s=20&t=ghEOpA9GYFiDinbj8ZB_UA

Bassey the warrior

Wow what a great stat. Just goes to show what an outstanding signing has been for under £10m no less. Well done again to the recruitment team.



Cambridge Away

Which begs the question, why did Arsenal buy Ramsdale?
Bet they are feeling silly now   :dft011:   :003:

SerbianLad

Leno has been amazing so far this season and long may it continue.

RaySmith



Bassey the warrior

Quote from: Cambridge Away on January 25, 2023, 05:23:37 PM
Which begs the question, why did Arsenal buy Ramsdale?
Bet they are feeling silly now   :dft011:   :003:

Ramsdale is a great keeper too. They bought him because he's more comfortable playing out the back.

Palhinha Colada

I'm pro-stats in general and think Leno's been good overall, but no one on this board would say Leno has been the best shotstopper in Europe this season having watched the season to this point. He hasn't stood out to that level.

Jamie88

Quote from: Palhinha Colada on January 25, 2023, 07:19:19 PM
I'm pro-stats in general and think Leno's been good overall, but no one on this board would say Leno has been the best shotstopper in Europe this season having watched the season to this point. He hasn't stood out to that level.

I'd be inclined to disagree with you. He has saved a hell of a lot of chances that I feel were above average saves. I think his performances alone have won us several points already


Palhinha Colada

#9
Quote from: Jamie88 on January 25, 2023, 07:21:35 PM
Quote from: Palhinha Colada on January 25, 2023, 07:19:19 PM
I'm pro-stats in general and think Leno's been good overall, but no one on this board would say Leno has been the best shotstopper in Europe this season having watched the season to this point. He hasn't stood out to that level.

I'd be inclined to disagree with you. He has saved a hell of a lot of chances that I feel were above average saves. I think his performances alone have won us several points already

Sure. He also let Haaland's penalty go underneath him and allowed a weak goal vs United, etc.

Leno's been a good pickup. He's having an above-average season, for sure. I'm just saying that sometimes, you do need to trust your eyes. This is one of those cases.

Also, how data is calculated varies significantly by provider. fbref.com has Fulham fourth in the PL in PSxG saved above expected per 90 mins. That seems closer to correct than "best in all of Europe"
https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepersadv/Premier-League-Stats

For reference, Fulham finished third in the Prem in 2020-21 in this category (per fbref) thanks to Areola's excellence. We were 16th in 2018-19. I'd say all of that sounds right: Leno is playing at Areola's level this season, and both were WAY better than the GK mess in our first promotion season.

Craven_Chris

Quote from: Palhinha Colada on January 25, 2023, 07:23:29 PM
Quote from: Jamie88 on January 25, 2023, 07:21:35 PM
Quote from: Palhinha Colada on January 25, 2023, 07:19:19 PM
I'm pro-stats in general and think Leno's been good overall, but no one on this board would say Leno has been the best shotstopper in Europe this season having watched the season to this point. He hasn't stood out to that level.

I'd be inclined to disagree with you. He has saved a hell of a lot of chances that I feel were above average saves. I think his performances alone have won us several points already

Sure. He also let Haaland's penalty go underneath him and allowed a weak goal vs United, etc.

Leno's been a good pickup. He's having an above-average season, for sure. I'm just saying that sometimes, you do need to trust your eyes. This is one of those cases.

Also, how data is calculated varies significantly by provider. fbref.com has Fulham fourth in the PL in PSxG saved above expected per 90 mins. That seems closer to correct than "best in all of Europe"
https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepersadv/Premier-League-Stats

For reference, Fulham finished third in the Prem in 2020-21 in this category (per fbref) thanks to Areola's excellence. We were 16th in 2018-19. I'd say all of that sounds right: Leno is playing at Areola's level this season, and both were WAY better than the GK mess in our first promotion season.

Its interesting that FBref which uses Opta has such a different result than Statsbomb, but then I guess PSxG is inherently more subjective than xG which also is far from perfect.

Worth noting that the Statsbomb data excludes penalties (of which Leno has let in 3 out of 3) so that might account for a small amount of the difference.

Also Leno is facing more shots that the other keepers on that list, which benefits his total 'Goals Saved above Average'...if you calculate a goals saved above average per shot to adjust for that, Leno falls below most of the others on that top 10 list.

Further, on the Opta model almost all of Leno's excess saves came in the two recent games against Leicester and Chelsea, ignoring those, on the Opta model he is roughly at par, I suspect it would be a similar story on Statsbomb too.

This is all nit-picking though, I think he is excellent!

filham

Money well spent, no doubt Leno has done a good job for us.


hovewhite

Think he's one of the best Sweeper Keepers because of his reading of the game.

FreiBird

Quote from: Palhinha Colada on January 25, 2023, 07:19:19 PM
I'm pro-stats in general and think Leno's been good overall, but no one on this board would say Leno has been the best shotstopper in Europe this season having watched the season to this point. He hasn't stood out to that level.

Objectively wrong. We'd be in relegation zone without him.

Marcus

Yep, third time lucky with the business we did this summer, and Leno is right up there, cheap as chips relatively speaking along with Willian, Andreas, Palhinha and one or two others. We are now in a position to already be thinking about next season and how we can strengthen, because the goals against column needs tidying up. Is Leno papering over some worrying cacks, or am I being alarmist.


cookieg


Surlyc

Leno is a top shot stopper and this season reflects that. Shot-stopping is vastly more important to teams further down the league due to the number of chances they face, which is exactly why I was so excited about signing him.

Arsenal wanted a player who could distribute more effectively and Ramsdale does that better. Leno is a much better fit for what we need, so I guess all parties were winners!

Palhinha Colada

Quote from: FreiBird on January 26, 2023, 12:38:08 AM
Quote from: Palhinha Colada on January 25, 2023, 07:19:19 PM
I'm pro-stats in general and think Leno's been good overall, but no one on this board would say Leno has been the best shotstopper in Europe this season having watched the season to this point. He hasn't stood out to that level.

Objectively wrong. We'd be in relegation zone without him.

No GK in the world is worth 14+ points in the table over half a season.

That's the last I'll say on this. Leno has been a good pickup and is having a fine season which has helped us to 7th place. May it continue.


WindyCity

Quote from: Palhinha Colada on January 26, 2023, 05:08:33 PM
Quote from: FreiBird on January 26, 2023, 12:38:08 AM
Quote from: Palhinha Colada on January 25, 2023, 07:19:19 PM
I'm pro-stats in general and think Leno's been good overall, but no one on this board would say Leno has been the best shotstopper in Europe this season having watched the season to this point. He hasn't stood out to that level.
Objectively wrong. We'd be in relegation zone without him.
No GK in the world is worth 14+ points in the table over half a season.  That's the last I'll say on this. Leno has been a good pickup and is having a fine season which has helped us to 7th place. May it continue.

I'm with PColada on this issue. No question, Leno has been good for FFC and impactful in our last two wins.  That said, he doesn't pass the "eye test" for me.  Has let in some questionable goals and, in my view, could have done much better on the Kane goal.  Sometimes the stats belies the eye test.  Good acquisition, glad we have him, but best shotstopper in Europe?  I think not.....

FishaPrice

Leno reads the game so well. His coming off his line to sweep the ball clear is spot on and makes up for many of the mistakes our back line make. Also, Ream sometimes gets done for pace, but Leno is usually keen to it. He is so good in 1v1 situations and saves so many of the breakaways that he faces. He is comfortable with the ball at his feet and his distribution is good. He is confident on corners and set pieces. He is generally perfectly positioned when facing shots which means he doesn't have to do amazing acrobatics for most saves. Sometimes the most spectacular looking saves are down to a keeper's poor positioning. Before we signed Leno, I was so hopeful we would get someone of Areola's ability, but we may have done even better. Leno is an all around great keeper, and I really don't see a weakness in his game. After a good previous season from Rodak, I do feel slightly bad for him that he lost his spot but I understand why. I am glad we have two good goalkeepers at the club.