January Silly Season Transfer thread 2024/25

[Chi_FFC]

Though we obviously ask a lot less of our RB's than Antonee on the other side, I actually think that in the run of play Castagne is the slightly more offensively minded of our two RB's (Kenny has been more of a goal threat off set pieces). On those occasions when Tim is further forward he tends to make smarter runs and offers better delivery to our attackers than Kenny (over the last two seasons xAG/90, Tete .04 and .05, Castagne .07 and .11).

[SerbianLad]

Though we obviously ask a lot less of our RB's than Antonee on the other side, I actually think that in the run of play Castagne is the slightly more offensively minded of our two RB's (Kenny has been more of a goal threat off set pieces). On those occasions when Tim is further forward he tends to make smarter runs and offers better delivery to our attackers than Kenny (over the last two seasons xAG/90, Tete .04 and .05, Castagne .07 and .11).

And when it comes to actual assists, Tete had 5 in the season he was our regular starter, while Castagne had 3 in the season he was our regular starter. This season Tete has 2 and Castagne 1. Tete also offers more goal threat, and I'm not talking only about set pieces. His run against Manchester United in the season opener is a good example of this. He had a few other decent efforts this season too. So I'd say Tete is slightly better offensively too.

[Jims Dentist]

Tete is a superb right back when fit.
The problem being he picks up injuries regularly and the when returning it seems to take him a fair few games to get his form back.

[JimOG]

Though we obviously ask a lot less of our RB's than Antonee on the other side, I actually think that in the run of play Castagne is the slightly more offensively minded of our two RB's (Kenny has been more of a goal threat off set pieces). On those occasions when Tim is further forward he tends to make smarter runs and offers better delivery to our attackers than Kenny (over the last two seasons xAG/90, Tete .04 and .05, Castagne .07 and .11).

And when it comes to actual assists, Tete had 5 in the season he was our regular starter, while Castagne had 3 in the season he was our regular starter. This season Tete has 2 and Castagne 1. Tete also offers more goal threat, and I'm not talking only about set pieces. His run against Manchester United in the season opener is a good example of this. He had a few other decent efforts this season too. So I'd say Tete is slightly better offensively too.

I think Kenny takes great pride/delight in his closing down/tackling which is the primary job of that position. Castagne is a more gifted alround footballer for me but I'd choose Tete every time against the likes of Gordon

[Bassey the warrior]

Though we obviously ask a lot less of our RB's than Antonee on the other side, I actually think that in the run of play Castagne is the slightly more offensively minded of our two RB's (Kenny has been more of a goal threat off set pieces). On those occasions when Tim is further forward he tends to make smarter runs and offers better delivery to our attackers than Kenny (over the last two seasons xAG/90, Tete .04 and .05, Castagne .07 and .11).

My take is Castagne gets forward more, allowing him more chances to cross the ball, however Tete's crossing significantly better. Some of his crosses are superb.

[bencher]

Though we obviously ask a lot less of our RB's than Antonee on the other side, I actually think that in the run of play Castagne is the slightly more offensively minded of our two RB's (Kenny has been more of a goal threat off set pieces). On those occasions when Tim is further forward he tends to make smarter runs and offers better delivery to our attackers than Kenny (over the last two seasons xAG/90, Tete .04 and .05, Castagne .07 and .11).

My take is Castagne gets forward more, allowing him more chances to cross the ball, however Tete's crossing significantly better. Some of his crosses are superb.

Castagne gets in a lot of good crossing positions and mostly passes it back to the central midfielder.

I always prefer having Tete in the team although I think Timothy is a good backup.

[Chi_FFC]

Though we obviously ask a lot less of our RB's than Antonee on the other side, I actually think that in the run of play Castagne is the slightly more offensively minded of our two RB's (Kenny has been more of a goal threat off set pieces). On those occasions when Tim is further forward he tends to make smarter runs and offers better delivery to our attackers than Kenny (over the last two seasons xAG/90, Tete .04 and .05, Castagne .07 and .11).

Tete also offers more goal threat, and I'm not talking only about set pieces.

Eh, the numbers don't support this assertion. Tete has 2 PL goals, or 1 every ~2600 minutes, and both of those came on set pieces. Timothy has 6 career PL goals, or 1 every ~1900 minutes, and only 1 came on a set piece. Now Kenny actually has a slightly higher xG than Tim over the past few seasons but if you look closely at the underlying numbers you'll find that the overwhelming majority of that xG comes from set piece chances (something like 70% over the past few seasons). Tim's percentage of xG from open play is considerably higher than Kenny's. Though to be clear, neither of them offer a ton of goal threat.

And again, I'll stand by my assertion that Tim's delivery in the attacking end has been slightly (let me be perfectly clear so there's no confusion...slightly) better than Tete's. The underlying numbers support this and that's what I look to when making such evaluations. Actual assist numbers can be fluky and way too reliant on luck/the performance of others.

[SerbianLad]

Eh, the numbers don't support this assertion. Tete has 2 PL goals, or 1 every ~2600 minutes, and both of those came on set pieces. Timothy has 6 career PL goals, or 1 every ~1900 minutes, and only 1 came on a set piece. Now Kenny actually has a slightly higher xG than Tim over the past few seasons but if you look closely at the underlying numbers you'll find that the overwhelming majority of that xG comes from set piece chances (something like 70% over the past few seasons). Tim's percentage of xG from open play is considerably higher than Kenny's. Though to be clear, neither of them offer a ton of goal threat.

And again, I'll stand by my assertion that Tim's delivery in the attacking end has been slightly (let me be perfectly clear so there's no confusion...slightly) better than Tete's. The underlying numbers support this and that's what I look to when making such evaluations. Actual assist numbers can be fluky and way too reliant on luck/the performance of others.

I don't see how goals Castagne scored at Leicester are relevant, as he played in a completely different system there, both in terms of style of play and personnel.

Expected assist numbers are much more unreliable, in my opinion, than the actual assist number. You can put 10 low xA crosses and it will be more Xa in total than two high xA crosses. For example, Tete has 1.36 crosses per 90 minutes, while Castagne has 2.5 crosses per 90 minutes. It's only natural that Castagne accumulates more expected assists. I'd rather have Tete cross it one or two times every game and that we score from it every now and again than have Castagne cross it more often, but have lower quality crosses from which we are less likely to score from.

[AnotherVicHalomLoveChild]

64 pages.....  

[Sting of the North]

Eh, the numbers don't support this assertion. Tete has 2 PL goals, or 1 every ~2600 minutes, and both of those came on set pieces. Timothy has 6 career PL goals, or 1 every ~1900 minutes, and only 1 came on a set piece. Now Kenny actually has a slightly higher xG than Tim over the past few seasons but if you look closely at the underlying numbers you'll find that the overwhelming majority of that xG comes from set piece chances (something like 70% over the past few seasons). Tim's percentage of xG from open play is considerably higher than Kenny's. Though to be clear, neither of them offer a ton of goal threat.

And again, I'll stand by my assertion that Tim's delivery in the attacking end has been slightly (let me be perfectly clear so there's no confusion...slightly) better than Tete's. The underlying numbers support this and that's what I look to when making such evaluations. Actual assist numbers can be fluky and way too reliant on luck/the performance of others.

I don't see how goals Castagne scored at Leicester are relevant, as he played in a completely different system there, both in terms of style of play and personnel.

Expected assist numbers are much more unreliable, in my opinion, than the actual assist number. You can put 10 low xA crosses and it will be more Xa in total than two high xA crosses. For example, Tete has 1.36 crosses per 90 minutes, while Castagne has 2.5 crosses per 90 minutes. It's only natural that Castagne accumulates more expected assists. I'd rather have Tete cross it one or two times every game and that we score from it every now and again than have Castagne cross it more often, but have lower quality crosses from which we are less likely to score from.

I feel that the stats presented seem very relevant as it is still against PL competition, and from defensive positions (it is not as if Castagne was playing forward). Also, if Tete has scored zero PL goals from open play, I am not sure why he would be considered a higher goal threat from open play.

On your reasoning on the crosses, is your estimation then that something else happens that generates a higher scoring chance in total when Tete plays, and that you therefore prefer him not crossing/getting into crossing positions very often as opposed to Castagne's higher accumulation?

Personally from the eye test, I feel that Castagne is better at getting forward and combining with other players and fits better into Silva's attacking system. I would pick Tete  though since he is definitely one of the best in the league when it comes to defending.

[Mullers OG]

Entertaining though the RB discussion is I want to ask a transfer question if that's allowed. Did we ever sign the young player from St Johnstone (I think it was Brodie Dair)? 

There's been no mention of him on the club website.

[jayffc]

64 pages.....  

3 signings apparently...21.3333333 pages per signing...not too bad for us 😅😂

(P.s yes I know of course it's been 2 youth + Willian, not the most eventful)

[SerbianLad]

@Sting of the North I'm saying Tete got 5 assists in the season he was our regular starter, Castagne got 3 in the season he was our regular starter, this season Tete has 2 assists, Castagne has 1. Therefore Tete is a better crosser of the ball. Expected assist don't mean much to me, as I already explained. If Castagne puts almost twice as many crosses as Tete does he will always have higher xA numbers.

Does that mean that we create less
expected assists when Tete is playing or we create expected assists from other parts of the pitch is irrelevant, as my point was that Tete is a better crosser of the ball.

[jayffc]

Entertaining though the RB discussion is I want to ask a transfer question if that's allowed. Did we ever sign the young player from St Johnstone (I think it was Brodie Dair)? 

There's been no mention of him on the club website.

Yeh not sure now you mention it, I thought I saw it was official but only on BBC as accepted bid it seems 🤔 hes young enough it doesn't have to happen in transfer window , he just couldn't play for our first team till after summer but can play in academy

[btffc]

Entertaining though the RB discussion is I want to ask a transfer question if that's allowed. Did we ever sign the young player from St Johnstone (I think it was Brodie Dair)? 

There's been no mention of him on the club website.

Yes he was signed, just hasn't been announced yet

[Chi_FFC]

Eh, the numbers don't support this assertion. Tete has 2 PL goals, or 1 every ~2600 minutes, and both of those came on set pieces. Timothy has 6 career PL goals, or 1 every ~1900 minutes, and only 1 came on a set piece. Now Kenny actually has a slightly higher xG than Tim over the past few seasons but if you look closely at the underlying numbers you'll find that the overwhelming majority of that xG comes from set piece chances (something like 70% over the past few seasons). Tim's percentage of xG from open play is considerably higher than Kenny's. Though to be clear, neither of them offer a ton of goal threat.

And again, I'll stand by my assertion that Tim's delivery in the attacking end has been slightly (let me be perfectly clear so there's no confusion...slightly) better than Tete's. The underlying numbers support this and that's what I look to when making such evaluations. Actual assist numbers can be fluky and way too reliant on luck/the performance of others.

I don't see how goals Castagne scored at Leicester are relevant, as he played in a completely different system there, both in terms of style of play and personnel.

Expected assist numbers are much more unreliable, in my opinion, than the actual assist number. You can put 10 low xA crosses and it will be more Xa in total than two high xA crosses. For example, Tete has 1.36 crosses per 90 minutes, while Castagne has 2.5 crosses per 90 minutes. It's only natural that Castagne accumulates more expected assists. I'd rather have Tete cross it one or two times every game and that we score from it every now and again than have Castagne cross it more often, but have lower quality crosses from which we are less likely to score from.

1. And yet even if one were to accept this dubious assertion, Timothy has a) one more goal in open play as a Fulham player than Tete and b) an appreciably higher xG/xG/90 in open play than Kenny over the past two seasons.

2. I admit at first I was quite confused by these numbers until I finally worked out you were just talking about the relatively small sample size of this season. Over the course of the last season and a little more than a half at Fulham there's not much of a difference in crosses/90 between Timothy and Kenny (1.93 v 1.78...and interestingly enough if you were to throw in Fulham's 22-23 season that number jumps to 2.7 per 90 for Kenny...talk about a high volume crosser...he was averaging almost 3.5 a game that season).  And I'm not even going to attempt to correct some of the mistaken assertions you make about how xAG (the stat I've been citing) works.

[SerbianLad]

We clearly see things differently,so no point in arguing anyomre. For me the only number that matters is the actual number of assists which is 5-3 in Tete's favour if you compare the two seasons in which they were starters respectively. That plus the eye test tell me Tete puts much better crosses in. Even if I got it wrong, and I still don't think I did, xA or xG, while not completely useless aren't perfect reflections of a players quality either.

I respect your opinion though. And at the end of the day, I like both Tete and Castagne, I think they're both superb players and I hope we keep both of them for a long time.

[Pavel Dempsey]

Did someone mentioned we had agreed a transfer for Bright Osayi-Samuel with Fenerbahce only to Mourinho to pull the plug? The most reliable Turkish football journalist said that yesterday on X. He is out of contract this summer so we can expect him to sign probably, on top of that some Nigerian site said in Decembar how he agreed a pre-contract with us.

I remember him from QPR, he was very good as a right winger in a team with Eze and Chair, later in Turkey they were starting playing him as a wing-back and full-back.

https://x.com/FulhamTransfer/status/1887162753015853186

[Deeping_white]

https://twitter.com/fulhamacademy/status/1890068619293491696