A lot has been mentioned about who has the better form going into the playoffs, it tends to go out the window as the playoffs start, but is also the only concrete thing people can try and base judgements on, rightly so. Brentford could be completely galvanised by their two recent losses, or they may feel like they let it slip and were found wanting, something which can deeply impact a clubs mentality.
That said, going into the final run of games, a lot was also said about how we had the hardest run in and in many ways, predictions for how the end of the season would go saw some having us down as 5th or 6th, or simply not having the results we’ve had.
Context therefore counts as everything.
So 9 game form since restart needs to be taken into account
|Cardiff’s games were||(position of opposition)||(form position)|
|Leeds (2-0 win to Cardiff)||(1st)||(1st in previous six games)|
|Preston (3-1 win)||(7th)||(20th)|
|Charlton (0-0 draw)||(18th)||(16th)|
|Bristol City (1-0 win)||(12th)||(24th)|
|Blackburn Rovers (3-2 loss)||(11th)||(20th)|
|Fulham (2-0 loss)||(4th)||(6th)|
|Derby (2-1 win)||(10th)||(5th to Cardiff’s 4th at time)|
|Middlesbrough (3-1 win)||(19th)||(12th)|
|Hull City (3-0 win)||(23rd)||(23rd)|
WWDWLLWWW (19 points) (median position of opposition 12th) (median form of teams faced – 14th)
16 goals for – 8 goals against. Leeds, Bristol, Charlton and Hull are the teams they kept clean sheets against.
44.6% possession on average over the season 65.5% passing accuracy over season.
A lot of Cardiff’s goals in their last six games have come early (around the 20 min mark), between 35 mins half time/just after or around the 80th minute.
Against Hull 3-0 = 19, 35, 83
Borough – 3-1 = 4,46 and 81
Derby – 17, 59
Blackburn – 14, 41
Bristol City – 85
PReston – 69, 82, 91
Leeds 35, 71
in first 10 minutes – 1 goal,
10 – 20 minutes – 3 goals,
20-30 mins – 0 goals,
30-40 mins – 2 goals,
40-50 mins – 4 goals,
50-60mins – 1 goal,
60 – 70 mins – 1 goal,
70-80 mins – 1 goal,
80- end of match – 5 goals
over half of their 16 goals come in two periods of the game, the final 10 minutes and the 10 minutes either side of half time.
On a half by half split 10 goals of their 16 are scored in the second half equalling 63% with 3/4 coming from 40 minutes onwards, which suggests they tend to go for it at the beginning, settle into the game based on that and then push on around the times that count most.
They played without two of their more dangerous players when we last played in Glatzel and Tomlin, who both have 8 goals apiece scored this season (joint top), although both players came off the bench. Seven of their players have 7-8 goals this season.
If they play with their usual format and strongest team it will be 4-2-3-1 and they’ll line up with (crosses denote players who played in the game against us 7-11 – indicating a strong squad and a manager who has been rotating his players a bit either due to demand of games or strategy.
Smithies in goal x
Jo Bennett x
Sean Morrison x
Curtis Nelson x
Leandro Bacuna x
Junior Hoillet x
Nathaniel Mendez Laing x
That said, that’d leave out Josh Murphy (who’s on a similar number of games as Tomlin, Glatzel and Mendez-Laing). They also against us with Jo Ralls (a CM) in the middle of the 3 and will Vaulks a CB as one of the two DM’s.. which suggests Neil Harris feels we’re a strong attacking side that needs to have a more defensive-minded team play us. According to sky and google, they played with a defender up front against us too?
Just seen Callum Patterson (25 yr old), started career as a RB, normally plays in midfield but sometimes also plays as a striker. Impressive versatility.
|Fulham’s games||(position of opposition)||(form position)|
|Brentford (2-0 loss)||(4th)||(10th – on previous six games)|
|Leeds (3-0 loss)||(1st)||(1st)|
|QPR (2-1 win)||(13th)||(9th)|
|Birmingham (1-0 win)||(16th)||(21st)|
|Nottingham Forest (1-0 win)||(5th)||(7th)|
|Cardiff city (2-0 win)||(6th)||(5th to our 6th at the |
time of this game)
|West Brom (0-0 draw)||(2nd)||(7th)|
|Sheffield Wednesday (5-3 win)||(14th)||(16th)|
|Wigan (1-1 draw)||(13th)||(wigan form 4th)|
LLWWWWDWD (17 points) (Median position of opposition – 8th in league) – Median position in form table (9th)
12 goals for and 10 goals against. in our last six games we’ve kept 4 clean sheets against Cardiff, West Brom, Nottingham Forest and Birmingham.
Average Possession stats 58.3 passing accuracy 83.2
Hope that gives clarity to people in some ways… appreciate it’s not the most conclusive. Looks like we’re the stronger side, but it’ll be a close game with everyone at full strength. If we weather their storms and take our chances we could do well.
come on over to the forum and join in the discussion…