OK - here is some straw man calculations.
So we got 1 point out of our first 8 games.
So we have a further 27 from the last 14 games.
This give us a current game average of (27/14) 1.93 points per games.
So we have 24 games left.
So 24 at our current point per game average gets us (24 *1.93) 46 more points
Add that 46 point to our current 28 points and we get a grand total of 76 points at the end of the season.
Where will 76 points get us historically?
2013-14 - 5th
2012-13 - 4th
2011-12 - 5th
2010-11 - 6th
And has always made the play-offs from 2004-2005.
Can we get excited yet?
46 plus 28 is 74
Based on last 13 years the average is 73 for sixth place.
Currently 6th place will be 79 pts. But also historically teams in top half of division lose points in second half of season.
My prediction for 6th place will be in the 72-76 put range.
Quote from: lamby on December 21, 2014, 11:20:27 AM
Can we get excited yet?
No. Still a huge ask
At game week 22 last season the top 3 were Leicester, Burnley & QPR. All promoted in May
Wigan did make the playoffs from 13th position but, due to playing in the Europa League, they had a game in hand on 6th place Leeds and were only 6-points behind them.
We are currently 10-ponits behind 6th placed Watford having played the same amount of games.
Points wise, we are closer to Brighton in 22nd. Just saying
Do Lamby's sums again after a defeat at Bournmouth and the answer is only 69 points.
The hard fact is that we are ten points behind in form teams and to catch them we have to increase our points rate and they have to suffer a loss of form.
Lets just look forward to the next match and the gradual development of our young players. For me the next big step for us is to get Roberts playing in the team.
The top 3 is irrelevant for all 3 being promoted. It's a key stat for the automatic but not the playoffs.
The playoffs is very random and is up for grabs for anyone who has momentum going into the last few games.
74 points is more than enough for the top 6 but to carry on constantly the way we are is a little unrealistic. Kit is a god if we don't have a wobble at some point and we can't afford to after Mr magoo' s attempt at management.
I think 69 was enough last year for Brighton and the way the leagues going it appears 6 clubs are running away from the pack rather than the usual two or three. If and it's a very unrealistic if but if we have any chance not only do we need to keep this run going, but we also need to beat the teams in the playoffs now.
Watford were 10 points above us two games ago, they are still ten points above us despite us winning back to back. There's 4 points between Watford and Norwich who are 6 and 7. Had we drawn with Watford we would be 7 points off and within 5 points of everyone below them.
That's the tough task, beaten the bigger better clubs. If we do that then any things possible but top half would be a brilliant effort
It is about squad size in the second half of the season and whether the bigger clubs poach players from our league. I cannot see us losing players that we want to keep! I can also see us signing one or two as well. So our squad should be a little stronger
I did this graphic the other day but here is an updated one.
If each position (not team) continues to average same points this is the breakdown at 26,31,36,41 and 46 games.
IF Fulham play as well as the team in 1st place and average 1.91 pts per game there pts total and position in table is shown.
(http://i57.tinypic.com/3177imu.jpg)
