Last few seasons I have had thread with stats on chasing promotion and other stats info, so here is another go.
Yes I have heard all the doesnt mean a thing stuff...so I'd say dont click on the thread and give it a wide berth as I know some others do like it.
(https://image.ibb.co/cXFVU9/Table_game_6.png)
The PL year on year table Game 6
Top 10 Positions last year had 115 points between them.
The Top 10 positions this season have 125.
The last six seasons the top ten at this stage have had 115/119/107/102/112/112/
Pretty tough start to the season for the bottom half.
Might be a bit early to start but here is the first table with 17th being the target.
(https://preview.ibb.co/eUmFwp/game_6.png)
It's a hell of a tough league and much harder than last time we were here.
Need another 8 wins at least - struggling with that - can you imagine if Mitro got injured ?
Quote from: Holders on September 23, 2018, 07:47:43 PM
It's a hell of a tough league and much harder than last time we were here.
Very true but I think we are better.
Being a bit of a punter I have had a few small futures bets on a few different leagues. I have had a little dabble on Everton to get relegated at 20/1 is overs and I think they are suspect.
Also backed Hearts to win the Scottish league at 50/1. Early days I know but value...
Peterborough for promotion in league 1 and Oldham for promotion from league 2.
Thanks Mike.
I'm definitely in the 'click the link' group. Always find this an interesting read
Much talk about MatchDay prices & crowds following first 3 games.
So had a look at last 14 seasons & attendances for first 3 games against avg for season.
5/14 seasons first 3 game avg exceed the season average.
Was surprised at how high they had been in last few seasons in PL.
I'd say having dropped out the league for 4 season and lost fans for many reasons, to come back and be at season 07/08-08/09 level is not bad.
Teams when they go down, as we found out in the 80's and 90's and before, have to rebuild their fan base.
(https://preview.ibb.co/dYKOhU/3_Game_average.png)
Could our target be a place in Europe, please? Not that I get nervous about relegation and all that.....
Quote from: toshes mate on September 24, 2018, 08:13:15 AM
Could our target be a place in Europe, please? Not that I get nervous about relegation and all that.....
I was initally going to put 7th as a target and then saw that Europa is 5th this season. I have it hidden on my table but will put it in later on.
Quote from: MJG on September 24, 2018, 08:14:22 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on September 24, 2018, 08:13:15 AM
Could our target be a place in Europe, please? Not that I get nervous about relegation and all that.....
I was initally going to put 7th as a target and then saw that Europa is 5th this season. I have it hidden on my table but will put it in later on.
You are a gentleman. MJG, thank you. Perhaps another column for winning the league... just kidding.....
Not quite the table for this week but I had a look back at the last 13 years in the PL and our results against the current top 6:
(https://image.ibb.co/bvm3Wz/Last_13_top_6.png)
Our record against Spurs and Man City are not bad, till you note its only 7 pts in the last 20 games against them.
This seven game start equals the worst side we have had in the PL (Coleman 05/06 with 5 points from 7 games) and most goals conceded in first 7 games (Sanchez 07/08 14 in 7 games)
Year on Year Table
(https://image.ibb.co/d8By3e/last_year.png)
Interesting that the differential between the Top 5 or Top 9-10 is bigger already this year than it was last, and any of the bottom half of the table could have gotten relegated with 6 games left to go last spring.
May go to show you can't purely judge our start to the season on playing Spurs, Watford, Arsenal, Citeh, and Everton away where we will never get a result in the history of mankind, but rather the next group of games against these teams that will not be finishing in the top 7 or 8, let alone first or second.
Looked back over last 8 seasons in the PL and how teams performed over last 31 games.
If we stick to the 40 points as a target to stay up[ (although really 38 now) then we require 35 points from last 31 games as a minnimum.
the table below shows the points gained in the last 31 games by position. I have highlighted 35 points each season and you get an idea that we need to be about the 14th best team for the rest of the season to get to that mark.
(https://preview.ibb.co/dqmjBz/31_games.png)
Ways to get 35 points
(https://image.ibb.co/eRLGPK/Required.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/n5b9M9/Game_8_2.png)
(https://preview.ibb.co/dSrLTp/Game_8.png)
In response to post I saw on twitter regarding Slav being just as bad one half of a season as he's good in the other I thought i'd split his 3 years in half.
We know thats how it worked out, but its even starker when you show from when our form changed.
(https://image.ibb.co/drgNmL/Half-way.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/grFhmL/Not-half-way.png)
My follow on from those tables is the same word I and many have used in the last couple of seasons 'Patience'.
We are all frustrated at what we have seen but he has proved he can turn a poor start around.
Yes its in the PL, but do we not owe him time after last 2 years?
Good to see the stats bearing out what many of us believe to be SJ's best quality even if it does take him a while to get players ticking over correctly. It may also be food for thought for the recruitment team about doing a better job of finding players who can slot straight into a football role and not take quite so many games to get up to speed, although I guess it wouldn't be Fulham if we were privileged to have a Club where everything works like clockwork from the start. It may not be such a spectacular tuirnaround this season but I believe it will have us shouting for more by the end of it.
Would be interesting to see the same stat for the Watford promotion season too MJG
Edit... Just had a look and I make it 1.65 ppg first half, 1.93 second half, same as with us in 16/17
Quote from: Statto on October 22, 2018, 08:46:21 AM
Would be interesting to see the same stat for the Watford promotion season too MJG
Edit... Just had a look and I make it 1.65 ppg first half, 1.93 second half, same as with us in 16/17
He wasnt there all season, just for 35 games
(https://image.ibb.co/dnQqO0/joka.png)
Ah OK, in any case my second number was wrong because I mistakenly used the 46 game average
Your correct numbers for 14/15 are interesting though, yet another stark difference first half v second half
Another interesting thing you can do with those numbers MJG is produce an adjusted, and arguably more likely, guide to how many points we should be aiming for.
For example looking the first/second half season numbers, if our aim this year was 40pts you could say a reasonable aim for a Jokanovic team might be to get 16 pts in the first half season and 24pts in the second half.
Then at this stage of the season you'd be saying we should have 7/8 pts, instead of the 9/10pts you'd be aiming for with the same performance level across the entire season.
Of course the thing is we're still below even thar 7/8pts target and in any case it's very dangerous to rely too much on the hope we'll improve in the second half of the season, so I stand by my opinion that he should go if we don't see improvement in the next 2 games
Quote from: Statto on October 22, 2018, 01:54:07 PM
Another interesting thing you can do with those numbers MJG is produce an adjusted, and arguably more likely, guide to how many points we should be aiming for.
For example looking the first/second half season numbers, if our aim this year was 40pts you could say a reasonable aim for a Jokanovic team might be to get 16 pts in the first half season and 24pts in the second half.
Then at this stage of the season you'd be saying we should have 7/8 pts, instead of the 9/10pts you'd be aiming for with the same performance level across the entire season.
Of course the thing is we're still below even thar 7/8pts target and in any case it's very dangerous to rely too much on the hope we'll improve in the second half of the season, so I stand by my opinion that he should go if we don't see improvement in the next 2 games
I did something like that this morning but the second half of his seasons are just too mad to even look at it.
if you broke his 'normal' season results it would look like this
HALWAY Figures
First 19 Games 27pts
Last 19 Games 40 pts
65 points
Although his seasons really tend to be 1st third and then two thirds
First 14 games 17 points
Last 24 games 50 points
And 67 is never going to be achieved but if we work on percentage of points he gets and we say 38 points needed to stay up, he would do it this way...
First 19 Games 15pts
Last 19 Games 23pts
or
First 14 games 10pts
Last 24 games 28pts
Interesting and absorbing stats.
A week in football is a long time.
Both Bournemouth & Boscombe will arrive at the Craven Cottage with the full intent of collecting maximum points, and they are fully capable of taking all three points. A very decent and well led team. They play some good football and never throw in the towel, they will fancy their chances.
At this stage some may feel that accomplishing a well fought draw could be a good result for us even at home.
But some may say we are a wounded lion, never more dangerous when we have our backs to the wall.
Well Slavisa may feel his back is to wall. I just hope he does not feel too lonely, because if we are to stand a chance of a result on Saturday, any kind of result, a manager feeling lonely is not a good sign, because at this time more than ever, his players must circle the wagons round him and support him 100% and been seen to back him to the hilt.
Slavisa on the other hand has to complete his side of the bargain and select the best available starting lineup, and ensure his players are motivated to the hilt.
I don't know what he says in the dressing room, but so far it doesn't seem to be working.
I know that unfortunately he is not going to change the expression on his face in a hurry, but it will do him no harm to look in the mirror at himself and say, what can I do to change our fortune. Even the smallest detail always helps.
As for stats, it will be interesting to see how those stats run in conjunction to how many points we finish with, and where and when.
As for last Saturday, would the stats prior to our match v Cardiff, would have indicated a resounding win for the home side based on stats.
So it's one for all and all for one.
A note on the current table. Usually the top 12 teams would have a 71% share of the total points. At the moment the top 12 have 82% and the only team that is 'normal' at the moment postion wise based on projections is the team in 12th Brighton.
(https://preview.ibb.co/e7jrYA/table-game-9.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/eWe3fq/Year-On-Year-game-9.png)
(https://preview.ibb.co/hKsdDA/Projected-game-9.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/c9bumV/Rolling-form-game-9.png)
Blimey we are relegated already along with The Terriers and The Magpies, and we are still in October.
Does Colin and the Blue Birds Know ?
They say beat the teams around you.
Well bottom 8 are drifting away from top 12, so this is that mini league.
Note WHU not played any of the other 7 at the bottom.
(https://image.ibb.co/cXtWfq/Bottom-8.png)
Been working on a new projection calculation and shows bottom nine as this...
(https://image.ibb.co/bukxmV/38-Games-at-game-10.png)
And a stat or two from Saturday
Between Cairney sub on saturday and their second goal these were the stats:
(FFC First) Passes: 96-36
Touches: 118-57
And 65% of the game in the Bournemouth half.
Just need a break at some stage really, not all dreadful.
Need TC fit thats for sure
Quote from: MJG on October 29, 2018, 09:17:16 PM
And a stat or two from Saturday
Between Cairney sub on saturday and their second goal these were the stats:
(FFC First) Passes: 96-36
Touches: 118-57
And 65% of the game in the Bournemouth half.
Just need a break at some stage really, not all dreadful.
Need TC fit thats for sure
That is how it felt during game time - their second goal came against the run of play and from then on ( and the sending off ) it was both hapless and hopeless
Quote from: MJG on October 29, 2018, 09:17:16 PM
And a stat or two from Saturday
Between Cairney sub on saturday and their second goal these were the stats:
(FFC First) Passes: 96-36
Touches: 118-57
And 65% of the game in the Bournemouth half.
Just need a break at some stage really, not all dreadful.
Need TC fit thats for sure
Yes, you have made an interesting point regarding " just need a break at some stage really ". Which is something that we have so far not really had.
A rub of the green at somewhere which could just change our fortune.
Of course it's going to take more that that to turn things around, but it's a start and it all helps.
Looking back over the last few games we seem to have been punished and paid for almost every mistake.
But the harder you work the luckier you get, so the order of the day is to increase the workrate and application, and hopefully turn any luck floating around our way.
Goals change matches, and clean sheets save matches.
I would imagine our first clean sheet we get this season, if of course we can get one will no doubt get another as we recover from a very difficult start.
Never thought the prospect of anticipating our first clean sheet would taste so appetising.
(https://preview.ibb.co/i6xvQ0/Table-Game-10.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/dawpk0/Year-On-Year-game-10.png)
(https://preview.ibb.co/kBxvQ0/Projections-game-10.png)
(https://preview.ibb.co/iU8jJV/Game-11-Table.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/dAOjJV/Game-11-year-on-Year.png)
(https://preview.ibb.co/fFg4JV/Game-11-projections-of-form.png)
New Table of my final prediction of the table taking everything into account
(https://image.ibb.co/iQCddV/Game-11-final-projection.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/dAbRXq/Needed.png)
*Note 9 of them against the big 6
My Final Table Projection
(https://image.ibb.co/iserTV/Real-Projection-12.png)
Form Table Projections
(https://preview.ibb.co/gbriaA/Table-12.png)
Form Projections
(https://preview.ibb.co/bTAbvA/Projections-12.png)
Year on Year Table
(https://image.ibb.co/mqtJ8V/YOY12.png)
What we need to do to get 34 points and 17th place (Form wise we need to play like a team in 14th place for rest of the season)
(https://image.ibb.co/moMiaA/Need-12.png)
Bottom 8 and how they are doing against each other and Vs top 12
(https://image.ibb.co/h4cWvA/Bottom-8.png)
7 Games to the halfway stage.
Chelsea and Man Utd away we can write off i suppose.
Leaves 5 games (4 H 1 A)
Saints, leicester, WHU, Wolves at home.
Newcastle away.
4 wins in those 5 games would give us 17pts, halfway to the 34 target which should kleep a team up. Tough ask.
Quote from: MJG on November 12, 2018, 08:43:18 AM
7 Games to the halfway stage.
Chelsea and Man Utd away we can write off i suppose.
Leaves 5 games (4 H 1 A)
Saints, leicester, WHU, Wolves at home.
Newcastle away.
4 wins in those 5 games would give us 17pts, halfway to the 34 target which should kleep a team up. Tough ask.
Just goes to show just how criminal it was we got nothing out of Cardiff Bournemouth and Huddersfield.
Final Table prediction
(https://i.ibb.co/QmvLT1F/38-Gmes-at-13.png)
What we need
(https://i.ibb.co/vD3QG4w/What-we-need-game-13.png)
Form Table projections
(https://i.ibb.co/K9fbQq0/Form-Table-projections-game-13.png)
Form & Projections
(https://i.ibb.co/2dbVPP1/Form-Projections-game-13.png)
Year on Year
(https://i.ibb.co/1Lm2Rqx/Year-on-year-game-13.png)
Bottom 8 Vs top 12 and each other
(https://i.ibb.co/qkkDtk1/Lower-table.png)
I always really appreciate this analysis and find it very interesting, but it sure was a lot more fun looking at the numbers last year and the year before.
Final Table prediction
(https://i.ibb.co/PGnrDhw/Real-14.png)
Need to get...
(https://i.ibb.co/hYMDyr1/Need-14.png)
Full table form projections
(https://i.ibb.co/WnNX4Wm/Full-Table-14.png)
Gaps, projections and rolling form
(https://i.ibb.co/4JpC7TL/Gaps-14.png)
Year on Year
(https://i.ibb.co/XttLKKq/Year-On-Year-14.png)
Results for bottom 8 against the top 12 and bottom 8
(https://i.ibb.co/F5qqTvc/top-v-bottom-14.png)
While you do not want to write off games at any stage, we just dont really look like picking up a point against any of the big 6 teams.
Taking that into account and using the 34 points as a target and 17 games left against the other 13 teams in the league, we need to do this...
(https://i.ibb.co/HzWcmLb/missing-top-6.png)
Final table Prediction see 17th move to 33pts
(https://i.ibb.co/tHXYTry/prediction-15.png)
What we need to do...
(https://i.ibb.co/gT0RJ6n/need-15.png)
Table of form projections
(https://i.ibb.co/9rSnHbB/Table-15.png)
Gap to 17th, Rolling form and form projection
(https://i.ibb.co/8rDbJyq/projections-gaps-15.png)
Year on Year table
(https://i.ibb.co/SR67ZQZ/year-on-year-15.png)
Bottom 8
(https://i.ibb.co/fxzz7pr/top-v-bottom-15.png)
Thanks Mike. Keep posting these even if it depresses me further 😀
After last night's result these stats really do reflect how dire our current situation is.
Quote from: FFC73 on December 06, 2018, 08:16:35 AM
Thanks Mike. Keep posting these even if it depresses me further 😀
After last night's result these stats really do reflect how dire our current situation is.
Im not so down about things. Year on Year table gives me hope. Three teams on the same points.
key is winning the games against those around us, we really have to that from now on.
Quote from: MJG on December 06, 2018, 08:18:14 AM
Quote from: FFC73 on December 06, 2018, 08:16:35 AM
Thanks Mike. Keep posting these even if it depresses me further 😀
After last night's result these stats really do reflect how dire our current situation is.
Im not so down about things. Year on Year table gives me hope. Three teams on the same points.
key is winning the games against those around us, we really have to that from now on.
Awesome analysis MJG. Sadly I think we're down but at least it gives some hope.
Come on lads - there's a long way to go yet, and there's no gap opened up between us and the clubs around us, a win will put us up the table.
I have every faith in the team under CR to turn things round, and feel we've already begun to do this.
MJG's analysis gives me hope more than anything else now we've started to become better defensively and more organised, though still a work in progress, because it shows how few points may be needed to survive this year.
Interesting reading. Not sure if it helps me feel down or optimistic! Guess it depends how you infer it? Credit to you for crunching the numbers.
The fact that we are not detached from the rest of the pack, means we have as much chance as any of the 7 teams at the bottom. What it means that we have to start picking up more points than the others from now on, which I know is fairly obvious, bearing in mind they all have to play each other including ourselves.
The good news is that out goals against column is showing we are more solid and compact at the back already, and there is a new fighting spirit which has become apparent.
Four points out of nine is a better return than previous matches, so the new Manager has most certainly starting to have an impact.
Obviously looking at the fixtures in the next four matches looks a little daunting, but we have to believe that we can salvage points in everyone of those games.
We cannot wait around for a so called fellow relegation outfit to come along to try and grind three points from them.
We have to try and be consistent in every match, it's called good habits, and good habits will achieve maximum opportunity to pick up points wherever we go, we cannot pick and choose, it does not work like that.
Come the Window, we need reinforcements, let's not kid ourselves.
We have to be one step ahead of all the teams immediately above us, and Saturday against the Manx is just one challenge in a row of challenges.
Must win matches do not start in February, they start in August, that's why we are playing catch up.
The other good news is, we still have 69 points to play for, which is my favourite number.
Was asked on twitter to look at halfway stage of things.
here is a table showing how the positions 17-20 look at 19 games and 38 games.
Vast majority of times the second half of the season out performs the first half.
(https://i.ibb.co/j5cFpnL/1st-half.png)
Fulll tables and everything else after tonights game.
Taking 34 points as the target to stay up and also taking into account I dont expect a point in any of the big six games these are the milestones we need to aiming for points wise at the end of each month to stay on track.
(https://i.ibb.co/vxnDM9h/Target.png)
Final Pts predictions
(https://i.ibb.co/j5fQ6t2/prediction-16.png)
need to...
(https://i.ibb.co/0hW5yB6/need-16.png)
Bottom 7 have fallen away now, here is how they are doing vs the rest of the table
(https://i.ibb.co/f4H8kn6/7-16.png)
Form and gaps...we need to be on rolling form of 7 pts
(https://i.ibb.co/37ZR17w/Projection-16.png)
Full table PPG projections with form
(https://i.ibb.co/HNchcN4/Full-Table-16.png)
Year on Year table
(https://i.ibb.co/r5DyLVY/Year-on-Year-16.png)
Final Pts Prediction
(https://i.ibb.co/rZQjjZr/projection-17.png)
need to...
(https://i.ibb.co/s2dyxgq/need-17.png)
Target at end of each month to reach 33
(https://i.ibb.co/3B35yKg/targets-month-17.png)
Bottom 7
(https://i.ibb.co/HBbrTQx/Bottom-7-a7.png)
Form and gaps...
(https://i.ibb.co/ph0b7Dd/Projections-17.png)
Full table PPG projections with form
(https://i.ibb.co/5cL8v1q/Full-Table-17.png)
Year On Year
(https://i.ibb.co/CM1d006/Year-on-Year-17.png)
Full Table PPG Projection
(https://i.ibb.co/vJ9m0d5/Full-Table-19.png)
PPG projection, Gap to 17th and form
(https://i.ibb.co/D465xdS/Projection-gap-form-19.png)
Year on Year Table
(https://i.ibb.co/nfJhnzL/Year-on-Year-19.png)
Prediction of final table shows 34 points for 17th place
(https://i.ibb.co/QcVq5s1/Projection-19.png)
We will need...
(https://i.ibb.co/Msnwfh2/Need-19.png)
Targets at end of each month based on losing every game to big 6
(https://i.ibb.co/y4qHPnf/Monthly-targets-19.png)
Bottom 7 Vs everyone
(https://i.ibb.co/CwvGjDG/bottom-7.png)
How my prediction is changing game by game. Moving between 33 and 34 for 17th.
(https://i.ibb.co/0s7MCZS/Prediction-game-by-game.png)
At the halfway stage of the season its easy to look at a table and go 20th has 10 pts it will end with 20 pts, but looking back over 18 seasons at the bottom 4 positions they out perform the first half results 80% of the time.
17th has 15pts, on avg it should get to 33/34
(https://i.ibb.co/vzYN1B8/Halfway-19.png)
All the stats below point in many ways to us needing to be the 12th or 13th best team in the league for the rest of the season.
To do that we need to get 7 or 8 points every 6 games rolling form wise.
Last couple of seasons I have doen the PPG projected table including form, which was ok but was based just on Points per game form.
This season I have tried a new way fo predicting the final table.
Its a work in progress but here is a projection for game 19 after the 10th game this season and showing how far I'm out. For me 1 point either way is good but I leave that for others to judge.
(https://i.ibb.co/1MRh0sm/model.png)
Clearly a lot of hard work and time must go in to preparing these charts, and for that I salute you, and It may surprise you but I do read them, and I do not just pass by without looking.
Forgive me for not sharing in your undoubted enthusiasm for statistics, but I appreciate your reasons as they do tell a story and can indentify a pattern.
With regard to this latest update, and in answer to the sceptics who feel that too much water has flowed under the bridge to prevent us from falling through the trap door.
However, Progress has already been made as we have lifted ourselves off bottom spot, and can strengthen that position by winning tomorrow, which in turn could move us up another place. If we win tomorrow, it is a massive result, but that alone will not prevent us from relegation, just three more points closer. If we are to survive, we have to target every match. Winning tomorrow does not mean we can sit back and think that it does not matter if we come away from Arsenal pointless, because it's more or less expected.
That is very foolish and naive to think that we only have to beat certain teams, and others like Arsenal are a Bridge too far.
We have to try and pick up points wherever we go, good habits in every match may not always get what we want, but will certainly increase our chances in the next match.
Same as if we lose tomorrow, it's not the end of the world, it may feel like it, but we have to turn our attention to the next match, until it becomes impossible to survive, then it just becomes about pride.
To sum up, thinking that just getting three points from certain matches like Huddersfield can afford us the luxury of conceding matches like the Arsenal game is for fools, ask Claudio Ranieri, we cannot pick and choose, it never works like that.
History counts for nothing, especially in a relegation battle.
If we play well enough to achieve three points tomorrow, we then have to make sure we do it again v Arsenal, and so on.
Believe me Huddlesfield will not turn up and lie down, in many ways they will be just as hard to beat as Arsenal, because in case some people may not have noticed, we have so far only won 2 matches out of 19.
Not a very good record is it, so who are we to expect us to best Huddersfield because they struggling also.
We just have to fight for every first and second ball, and make our own luck.
Yes it's true 2 wins out of 19, and that is the best statistic of all to chew over when you evaluate our season so far.
Nonetheless, if you ask me, can we survive, my answer is yes of course we can, and we shall if the players who are selected roll their sleeves up with fire in their bellies, and sweat blood.
If after CR has exhausted all attempts to galvanise certain players.
The ones that do not, or cannot, or will not, should be kept well away from the first team and the dressing room, and not be selected on reputation, because they will get us relegated.
That is why it is important to get the right players with the experience and mentality in this forthcoming Window.
Cheers for the comments Wooley. Of course you should never write the big team games off, but I do because thats the direction of travel for most teams at the bottom. It also gives us a bit of a buffer in that if we get points againt them it boinus we must use in not blowing it next game.
History doesnt matter in a one on one game, but it can be used as I think I show, to set the targets and see what we need to do. Thats what all of the stuff I do here is really about.
Yes MJG, and please keep doing your stuff, as it's absorbing reading, and does make a lot of sense, even for the likes of me, who has only just mastered the art of smoke signals.
Good post Woolly.
Huddersfield will be a tough scrap - they gave Man U a game last week, and were creating chances at 1-0 down, with the ManU keeper keeping them in the game. They can't score is the problem, but tomorrow could be the day they will!
There is also a lot of extra pressure on Fulham players to win this 'must win' against Hudd, who are 'crap', of course!
We hopefully will win tomorrow, but it's by means going to be easy , and but no one should think all is lost if we fail to win, or even lose.
We need to go again at Arsenal, with a view to getting points there, and every other game, as you say. Arsenal could prove to be an easier game, you never know.
But , as Woolly says, we need to approach every game as a potential three points, and the manager, with his tactical nous, and players on the pitch, have to give everything every time they take the field, and then we have a good chance of staying up, especially with the right reinforcements next month.
We could even go o a run, like last season - I think things are coming together, but there will still be blips along the way, and us fans need to stay fully behind the team and manager.
MJG's stats' forecasts actually give me hope , showing how few points should be needed to stay up, and many thanks to him for doing them.
Love these stats! Gives me hope!
More half season data:
18 seasons bottom 4 teams at halfway
20th - relegated 77% more than doubled points 77%
19th - relegated 55% more than doubled points 88%
18th - relegated 50% more than doubled points 77%
17th - relegated 33% more than doubled points 72%
On average team in 19th gets 21 points second half of the season. I think we need 23 and thats been done on 8 of the last 18 seasons by the team in 19th.
(http://i65.tinypic.com/2q33mo9.png)
Prediction of final table shows 35 points for 17th place
(https://i.ibb.co/GP8Fgp7/Projection-21.png)
We will need...
(https://i.ibb.co/48wr52s/Need-21.png)
Targets at end of each month based on losing every game to big 6
(https://i.ibb.co/74J6g9N/Monthly-21.png)
Bottom 7 Vs everyone
(https://i.ibb.co/Db7kwPz/Bottom-7-21.png)
Quote from: MJG on January 10, 2019, 07:33:45 PM
Prediction of final table shows 35 points for 17th place
I presume we're currently predicted to be in the bottom 3 in that table.
So if we finish higher, it will be at the expense of the team currently projected to finish 17th with 35 pts, actually finishing 18th and going down
So with our goal difference, presumably we really need to get 36 pts
Quote from: Statto on January 10, 2019, 09:31:40 PM
Quote from: MJG on January 10, 2019, 07:33:45 PM
Prediction of final table shows 35 points for 17th place
I presume we're currently predicted to be in the bottom 3 in that table.
So if we finish higher, it will be at the expense of the team currently projected to finish 17th with 35 pts, actually finishing 18th and going down
So with our goal difference, presumably we really need to get 36 pts
not really. I'm not predicting specific teams only positions and points. A team will end 17th on 35, be that Fulham or Cardiff or someone else it doesn't matter really, the key is 17th and 35.(which I expect to drop back to 34 within a game or two.
Quote from: MJG on January 10, 2019, 09:44:17 PM
Quote from: Statto on January 10, 2019, 09:31:40 PM
Quote from: MJG on January 10, 2019, 07:33:45 PM
Prediction of final table shows 35 points for 17th place
I presume we're currently predicted to be in the bottom 3 in that table.
So if we finish higher, it will be at the expense of the team currently projected to finish 17th with 35 pts, actually finishing 18th and going down
So with our goal difference, presumably we really need to get 36 pts
not really. I'm not predicting specific teams only positions and points. A team will end 17th on 35, be that Fulham or Cardiff or someone else it doesn't matter really, the key is 17th and 35.(which I expect to drop back to 34 within a game or two.
So how is the prediction calculated?
Quote from: Statto on January 10, 2019, 10:33:55 PM
Quote from: MJG on January 10, 2019, 09:44:17 PM
Quote from: Statto on January 10, 2019, 09:31:40 PM
Quote from: MJG on January 10, 2019, 07:33:45 PM
Prediction of final table shows 35 points for 17th place
I presume we're currently predicted to be in the bottom 3 in that table.
So if we finish higher, it will be at the expense of the team currently projected to finish 17th with 35 pts, actually finishing 18th and going down
So with our goal difference, presumably we really need to get 36 pts
not really. I'm not predicting specific teams only positions and points. A team will end 17th on 35, be that Fulham or Cardiff or someone else it doesn't matter really, the key is 17th and 35.(which I expect to drop back to 34 within a game or two.
So how is the prediction calculated?
combinations of form, historic dsta and current standings.
One of those over complicated (according to Statto) prediction tables for bottom positions.
(https://i.ibb.co/xCmVWP5/Prediction-bottom-8-22.png)
Where we need to be at end of each month to reach 35
(https://i.ibb.co/3fQJXZ2/monthly-target-22.png)
Bottom 7 Vs everyone.
(https://i.ibb.co/KL9km4S/bottom-7-22.png)
Using the projection im working on I have gone back to game 22 in 2008 (The great escape year) and run it from there to get this:
(https://i.ibb.co/Hqf7J5D/projection-2008.png)
16 & 17 come out spot on, 18th is one point less than projected and 19 and 20 are out by 6 & 7 each.
Im one point out on the total number of points the 5 teams scored so while my error rate for a position is 1 point plus or minus it come out correct in the key position of 17th.
As I have said below its a work in progress and far from perfect, but Im happy to put money on 17th this year being 34 or 35 points at this stage.
As I have always said, this is not about the team in 18th or 19th or wherever, its about positions and points which change only a little over the longer period.
I think the points required at the end of the season is pretty easy to calculate if you know exactly how many points the team in eighteenth place is going to achieve. However, in the meantime, that required points total is going to fluctuate throughout each and every game cycle, meaning we should be looking at a points total that should guarantee safety, shocks apart, say 38 or better. To get anywhere near that at this time already requires us to perform like a mid-table side and that means getting points from games we probably were not expecting to get points from. We should start by pulling off a 'shock' next Sunday which is also a 4pm kick-off (and not an early kick-off which always seem in my view to be harder work for us). From my perspective next Sunday could be our turning point and I really hope it turns out that way.
Quote from: MJG on January 13, 2019, 12:22:38 PM
Using the projection im working on I have gone back to game 22 in 2008 (The great escape year) and run it from there to get this:
(https://i.ibb.co/Hqf7J5D/projection-2008.png)
16 & 17 come out spot on, 18th is one point less than projected and 19 and 20 are out by 6 & 7 each.
Im one point out on the total number of points the 5 teams scored so while my error rate for a position is 1 point plus or minus it come out correct in the key position of 17th.
As I have said below its a work in progress and far from perfect, but Im happy to put money on 17th this year being 34 or 35 points at this stage.
As I have always said, this is not about the team in 18th or 19th or wherever, its about positions and points which change only a little over the longer period.
As you say, two of the predictions were 6-7 pts off there.
I was not having a dig, just pointing out that the current "projections" assume the teams around us will do better over the rest of the season than they have up to now, which I accept is possible, perhaps even likely, but based on the errors just mentioned, clearly still far from certain.
And on a thread about whether we "capitulate" or keep trying, I don't think we need to burden ourselves with gloomy projections when they've clearly only a limited chance of being correct.
Maybe this time around it will be 17th requiring 6-7pts less than you project!
Quote from: Statto on January 13, 2019, 12:31:52 PM
Quote from: MJG on January 13, 2019, 12:22:38 PM
Using the projection im working on I have gone back to game 22 in 2008 (The great escape year) and run it from there to get this:
(https://i.ibb.co/Hqf7J5D/projection-2008.png)
16 & 17 come out spot on, 18th is one point less than projected and 19 and 20 are out by 6 & 7 each.
Im one point out on the total number of points the 5 teams scored so while my error rate for a position is 1 point plus or minus it come out correct in the key position of 17th.
As I have said below its a work in progress and far from perfect, but Im happy to put money on 17th this year being 34 or 35 points at this stage.
As I have always said, this is not about the team in 18th or 19th or wherever, its about positions and points which change only a little over the longer period.
As you say, two of the predictions were 6-7 pts off there.
I was not having a dig, just pointing out that the current "projections" assume the teams around us will do better over the rest of the season than they have up to now, which I accept is possible, perhaps even likely, but based on the errors just mentioned, clearly still far from certain.
And on a thread about whether we "capitulate" or keep trying, I don't think we need to burden ourselves with gloomy projections when they've clearly only a limited chance of being correct.
Maybe this time around it will be 17th requiring 6-7pts less than you project!
Ive actually run it across many season and happy with 4 out of 5, its the bottom position that give me the biggest issue. 19 next but on this one it was well out.
What im trying to do is show that im fairly happy with what im getting but still work to do.
EDIT: Id also add that data shows teams do better in second half of the season in the lower reaches anyway.
Quote from: toshes mate on January 13, 2019, 12:26:08 PM
I think the points required at the end of the season is pretty easy to calculate if you know exactly how many points the team in eighteenth place is going to achieve. However, in the meantime, that required points total is going to fluctuate throughout each and every game cycle, meaning we should be looking at a points total that should guarantee safety, shocks apart, say 38 or better. To get anywhere near that at this time already requires us to perform like a mid-table side and that means getting points from games we probably were not expecting to get points from. We should start by pulling off a 'shock' next Sunday which is also a 4pm kick-off (and not an early kick-off which always seem in my view to be harder work for us). From my perspective next Sunday could be our turning point and I really hope it turns out that way.
It does game by game change and in the 3 or 4 years I have done things like this I have always said its a snapshot of where we are at that time. for example here is the game by game figures this year which show a move from 33 to 35 so the trend is up and as you say the higer targets are better,
the trend over all the years of the PL is down on whats required for 17th.
(https://i.ibb.co/C9mXyY3/game-by-game.png)
Full table prediction. 17th now 36 points
(https://i.ibb.co/Pj7p0H5/Prediction-23.png)
We need to do the following...
(https://i.ibb.co/kMh5QCJ/need-23.png)
Monthly target
(https://i.ibb.co/6YNmGbv/monthly-23.png)
Bottom 7
(https://i.ibb.co/fn14qK2/Bottom-7-23.png)
FulllTable PPG projections
(https://i.ibb.co/PDRCPHR/Table-23.png)
Year on Year table
(https://i.ibb.co/nCMYQPY/year-on-year-23.png)
Gaps, Projections and rolling form
(https://i.ibb.co/0rfNqPF/gaps-23.png)
In a nutshell for us to stay up....
if its 33 points then we need to play like the team in 13th place, if its 36 points we need to be like the team in 7th for the rest of the season.
Games we need to win...
Palace
Southampton
Cardiff
Newcastle
This gives us 26 points.
Games we will lose...
Man Utd
Liverpool
Man City
Chelsea
West Ham because we just will not win there
Needs 10 points from...
Brighton
Leicester
Watford
Everton
Bournemouth
Wolves
(https://i.ibb.co/M7BKVtQ/games.png)
Quote from: MJG on January 30, 2019, 11:05:50 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/M7BKVtQ/games.png)
Yes I can see where you are coming from, and the must win games are all winnable, and it will be great if Fulham can win those. It's just that as you and I know it's never that simple with Fulham.
I feel we need to take a point or two, from the will lose games in case, yes they are all daunting but we live in hope, and even West Ham despite our record there, are so unpredictable at the moment.
The matches that we need 7 or more points from give me more hope than a few weeks ago, and those 7 points minimum can be achieved. Obviously wins as opposed draws will be the key, especially v Palace.
However, we will have a better chance if we can bring in at least a Centre Back, we are crying out for one.
Also a right back before the window closes.
We will need to keep clean sheets somewhere along the way, otherwise I fear we may not quite have enough to avoid conceding preventable goals, and that will be so crucial.
At this moment 23 pounta is the relegation zone, of course it's unlikely one of the top 17 teams loses 14 games in a row, but one of them could become worse than Huddersfield. We need to win two more games and see.
Quote from: MJG on January 21, 2019, 07:59:54 AM
Games we need to win...
Palace
Southampton
Cardiff
Newcastle
This gives us 26 points.
Games we will lose...
Man Utd
Liverpool
Man City
Chelsea
West Ham because we just will not win there
Needs 10 points from...
Brighton
Leicester
Watford
Everton
Bournemouth
Wolves
This is a great summary! Looking at this i can suddenly see that there is a dim light at the end of the tunnel.
What a season it would be if we could stay up!
I have to be honest, i find it so much more exciting when we have something to play for (either promotion or relegation), the last few seasons have been a fantastic roller coaster ride. Imagine supporting a team like Everton? Mid table every season - boring!
Prediction of final table. 17th place now 37pts
(https://i.ibb.co/vVTj7G9/Prediction-24.png)
We need to....
(https://i.ibb.co/KjCndSZ/need-24.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/z2ML4jm/monthly-24.png)
Year on Years tables...
(https://i.ibb.co/syYHq6T/Year-on-Year-24.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/QDfYF8Z/bottom-5-year-on-year-24.png)
Main Table and PPG projections
(https://i.ibb.co/d6yFJMK/main-tabel-24.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/F68yVzP/projection-24.png)
Bottom 7
(https://i.ibb.co/7b9wMdF/Bottom-7-24.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/Nt7C5fc/37.png)
So we are all agreed then, we are staying up.
Thank goodness for that. 👍🍺 049:gif :yay: 082.gif
If the points per game projections for us and the teams around us are delivered in reality, it is possible to work out after which game we would be relegated? I'm sure it must be, but cannot work it out myself (I'm a bit thick at this sort of thing).
Quote from: flyingfish on February 11, 2019, 03:21:44 PM
If the points per game projections for us and the teams around us are delivered in reality, it is possible to work out after which game we would be relegated? I'm sure it must be, but cannot work it out myself (I'm a bit thick at this sort of thing).
I work it for later when i do the stats after tonights game, Cardiff game I reckon at the moment.
Quote from: MJG on February 11, 2019, 03:39:00 PM
Quote from: flyingfish on February 11, 2019, 03:21:44 PM
If the points per game projections for us and the teams around us are delivered in reality, it is possible to work out after which game we would be relegated? I'm sure it must be, but cannot work it out myself (I'm a bit thick at this sort of thing).
I work it for later when i do the stats after tonights game, Cardiff game I reckon at the moment.
But presumably only if we lose? Otherwise it will be the game before that? And if we beat Cardiff, it becomes the wolves game? And if we beat wolves it becomes the Newcastle game? /clutchingatstraws
All assuming other results are ppg as expected?
All the tables up tomorrow, but 17th target sticking at 37 points.
(https://i.ibb.co/b3gsQFh/prediction-26.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/j5jdKdx/Need-26.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/pjC703s/Target-month-26.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/gtBgYS7/Full-Table-26.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/kHjxt9B/gaps-26.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/0jtcrXY/Year-on-Year-26.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/Fnd4w5Z/Year-on-year-bottom-5-26.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/f8t13cv/37-pts.png)
If were were to win the three must win games listed below and took those games in isolation you would have a table like this with my predicted points at the end.
(https://i.ibb.co/4f1bYXm/wins.png)
Just as I gave you a glimpse yesterday that it could be close if we win those three games we need to....i now take it away by adding the 4 games we will lose (big 6 teams and WHU of course) I then have us on 31.
(https://i.ibb.co/ByrqSrZ/no-chance.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/fDVYwxZ/Need-game-27.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/qN3J6KM/Prediction-27.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/9wSpBxN/need-vs-27.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/8B6g3WF/monthly-27.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/0JxQ9rN/Projection-table-27.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/cCNQzd8/projection-27.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/PGvGP8M/year-on-year-27.png)
