Poll
Question:
Summary of Forum Members Views on our points total this season
Option 1: 23 or less
votes: 2
Option 2: 24 to 28
votes: 7
Option 3: 29 to 32
votes: 20
Option 4: 33 to 36
votes: 43
Option 5: 37 or more
votes: 10
Really quite depressing looking at the remaining fixtures, in particular the fact that we will have to play Burnley, WBA and Brighton all away. Even though we are playing better except the area that wins matches, I really can´t see us ending up with more than 23 points and that is being optimistic. Interesting to read what you guys think and in particular details of where you think we might get some more points the rest of the season?
43 points and clear of relegation by 7 points
As things stand, I make you about right for mid twenties. Something needs to change, either players or management.
31 and down. We will be one of the best teams to get relegated from the Premier League but our slow start will cost us in the end. Hope I am wrong as I will really miss this team.
Quote from: Sgt Fulham on December 27, 2020, 12:35:31 PM
31 and down. We will be one of the best teams to get relegated from the Premier League but our slow start will cost us in the end. Hope I am wrong as I will really miss this team.
yep, I feel like if they could create a miracle and stay up, then they could really push on next year.
On current form we're on for 34 plus points. I reckon we'll be nearer 40. We are competitive in the division now and have taken points off of the likes of Leicester and Liverpool so shouldn't fear anyone. It was always going to be tight but I think we'll just about survive this season. Lots to be positive about these days.
Our season starts in January.... we'll go on an unbeaten run....and Mr Parker will win manager of the season
30-35 currently I feel. Just hard to see us winning enough games.
35-40, if we sign a goalscorer who can hit the ground running. If we stick with the squad as is, 25-30.
Quote from: Sgt Fulham on December 27, 2020, 12:35:31 PM
31 and down. We will be one of the best teams to get relegated from the Premier League but our slow start will cost us in the end. Hope I am wrong as I will really miss this team.
Probably, & with much regret, this. I hope that I am totally wrong & we have an all conquering season from now. Keeping clean sheets & winning matches to be safe from relegation.
This is the best FFC squad we have had for some time. Just need a striker to fit the system & score goals.
With a bit of luck re injuries and a confident Mitro coming off the bench I can see us between 38 and 43 points. Squeaky but probably enough.
In the region of 34-38. I think 36 would probably be enough but 34 see us relegated. Personally I think we will stay up. I think SP has done a great job to make us so much harder to beat and when Tete gets back that will enable him to reshuffle slightly up front.
That said I'd like to see an end to the love in with Cav and RLC; they should have to earn their places, neither merits an automatic starting berth.
I worked out that if we keep same form as the last 6 games (7 points) we'd end up on around 37-38 pts - so that also takes account of the poor start.
Clearly, loads of variable but it tells me the psychological 40 points (or close) possible
We all know it is going to be close if we keep on-song. Add 2 clinical forwards next month and things should look a lot brighter. If we don't and neither of our existing squad hit goalscoring form it will be much harder but still possible.
COYW
Quote from: Twig on December 27, 2020, 02:16:23 PM
In the region of 34-38. I think 36 would probably be enough but 34 see us relegated. Personally I think we will stay up. I think SP has done a great job to make us so much harder to beat and when Tete gets back that will enable him to reshuffle slightly up front.
That said I'd like to see an end to the love in with Cav and RLC; they should have to earn their places, neither merits an automatic starting berth.
Agree with this points tally.
This season is so different I believe,no consistency from most teams.
We want need over 30 points,the bottom two I believe are well fecked in my book,wer'e better than a few others,Palace and the Geordies could quite possibly go.
Another 17 points will be enough imo,28 points will keep us up.....I hope🤔
As it stands, 37/38 - hopefully just enough
If we sign a quality forward (Lookman standard) next month, 40+
We're currently being held back by our good start and should be about 4 pts higher IMO
Without a striker of PL quality, and playing with 10 men (RLC in the starting XI)
We will be lucky to get near 30.
26. We need to start turning these home draws in to wins if we're going to be any shot of staying up
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 12:18:24 PM
As things stand, I make you about right for mid twenties. Something needs to change, either players or management.
Well, the players have changed and we are playing a lot better. Hell, we were literally better than Liverpool a couple of weeks ago. And the change in players is down to the management. I think you are disconnected from reality.
I will make the prediction after I have seen our pacey new striker play against Burnley.
Quote from: FFC In Oz on December 27, 2020, 03:18:57 PM
26. We need to start turning these home draws in to wins if we're going to be any shot of staying up
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 12:18:24 PM
As things stand, I make you about right for mid twenties. Something needs to change, either players or management.
Mid 20's. So that's 14 more points to the end of the season. Seems very pessimistic to me.
Quote from: Twig on December 27, 2020, 04:23:33 PM
Quote from: FFC In Oz on December 27, 2020, 03:18:57 PM
26. We need to start turning these home draws in to wins if we're going to be any shot of staying up
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 12:18:24 PM
As things stand, I make you about right for mid twenties. Something needs to change, either players or management.
Mid 20's. So that's 14 more points to the end of the season. Seems very pessimistic to me.
its roughly in line with our points per game so far.
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 04:31:52 PM
Quote from: Twig on December 27, 2020, 04:23:33 PM
Quote from: FFC In Oz on December 27, 2020, 03:18:57 PM
26. We need to start turning these home draws in to wins if we're going to be any shot of staying up
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 12:18:24 PM
As things stand, I make you about right for mid twenties. Something needs to change, either players or management.
Mid 20's. So that's 14 more points to the end of the season. Seems very pessimistic to me.
its roughly in line with our points per game so far.
But we have clearly improved since our awful start. Only one defeat and 7 points from our last six games, if you project that form it's a different picture. That's exactly why I called you pessimistic.
Quote from: Twig on December 27, 2020, 05:45:41 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 04:31:52 PM
Quote from: Twig on December 27, 2020, 04:23:33 PM
Quote from: FFC In Oz on December 27, 2020, 03:18:57 PM
26. We need to start turning these home draws in to wins if we're going to be any shot of staying up
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 12:18:24 PM
As things stand, I make you about right for mid twenties. Something needs to change, either players or management.
Mid 20's. So that's 14 more points to the end of the season. Seems very pessimistic to me.
its roughly in line with our points per game so far.
But we have clearly improved since our awful start. Only one defeat and 7 points from our last six games, if you project that form it's a different picture. That's exactly why I called you pessimistic.
our awful start will still be taken into account at the end of the season. And I say you are being overly optimistic. One point from our first five games. Six points from our next five games, and only four points from the last five games. Plus our goals have now dried up.
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 05:54:12 PM
Quote from: Twig on December 27, 2020, 05:45:41 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 04:31:52 PM
Quote from: Twig on December 27, 2020, 04:23:33 PM
Quote from: FFC In Oz on December 27, 2020, 03:18:57 PM
26. We need to start turning these home draws in to wins if we're going to be any shot of staying up
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 12:18:24 PM
As things stand, I make you about right for mid twenties. Something needs to change, either players or management.
Mid 20's. So that's 14 more points to the end of the season. Seems very pessimistic to me.
its roughly in line with our points per game so far.
But we have clearly improved since our awful start. Only one defeat and 7 points from our last six games, if you project that form it's a different picture. That's exactly why I called you pessimistic.
our awful start will still be taken into account at the end of the season. And I say you are being overly optimistic. One point from our first five games. Six points from our next five games, and only four points from the last five games. Plus our goals have now dried up.
To look at things over a longer scale we have secured 11 points from the last 11 games having played a reasonable cross section of teams. It is not therefore unreasonable or overly pessimistic to project 24 over the next 24 games given the improvement and that at long last we are not conceding goals unnecessarily. 35 points probably won't be sufficient but a damn sight better than we feared after the first four games.
Quote from: SG on December 27, 2020, 06:01:13 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 05:54:12 PM
Quote from: Twig on December 27, 2020, 05:45:41 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 04:31:52 PM
Quote from: Twig on December 27, 2020, 04:23:33 PM
Quote from: FFC In Oz on December 27, 2020, 03:18:57 PM
26. We need to start turning these home draws in to wins if we're going to be any shot of staying up
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 12:18:24 PM
As things stand, I make you about right for mid twenties. Something needs to change, either players or management.
Mid 20's. So that's 14 more points to the end of the season. Seems very pessimistic to me.
its roughly in line with our points per game so far.
But we have clearly improved since our awful start. Only one defeat and 7 points from our last six games, if you project that form it's a different picture. That's exactly why I called you pessimistic.
our awful start will still be taken into account at the end of the season. And I say you are being overly optimistic. One point from our first five games. Six points from our next five games, and only four points from the last five games. Plus our goals have now dried up.
To look at things over a longer scale we have secured 11 points from the last 11 games having played a reasonable cross section of teams. It is not therefore unreasonable or overly pessimistic to project 24 over the next 24 games given the improvement and that at long last we are not conceding goals unnecessarily. 35 points probably won't be sufficient but a damn sight better than we feared after the first four games.
do points really matter? You either stay up or you don't. Were Westham fans happier when they got relegated because they managed to get 42 points that year, no, no they wasn't. The only target is Derby's record low points tally then after that relegation is just as bad no matter where you finish or the points you amass Imo.
I predict that we will treble our current points total minimum by the end of the season, assuming we can bring in a forward that will not only make an impact with goals scored, but players in all other positions also need to make a contribution by finding the net also.
Interesting opinions, these are the matches I think we could get some points, Burnley (a) 1, WBA (a) 1m West Ham (H) 1, Sheff Utd (h) 3, Leeds (h) 1, Wolves (h) 1, Burnley (h) 1 and Newcastle (h) 3, that is 12 in total, the other matches I can't see us getting any points, obviously I will be proven wrong!
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on December 27, 2020, 07:03:45 PM
I predict that we will treble our current points total minimum by the end of the season, assuming we can bring in a forward that will not only make an impact with goals scored, but players in all other positions also need to make a contribution by finding the net.
Maybe Woolly, I perhaps forgot to add that my opinion is based on the present squad and no additional striker(s) being signed.
You have left out Tottenham home and away, Man Utd home and away, Chelsea home and away, Arsenal away, Leicester at home, why is that davew ?
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Quote from: fulhamben on December 27, 2020, 06:42:29 PM
do points really matter? You either stay up or you don't.
But seeing as we don't know what the table will look like at the end of the season, they clearly do. 35 points may not be enough to keep us up, but it will give us a chance. 25 points and we know we've no chance.
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on December 27, 2020, 07:08:44 PM
You have left out Tottenham home and away, Man Utd home and away, Chelsea home and away, Arsenal away, Leicester at home, why is that davew ?
I don´t see us getting any points from any of those games, pessimistic I know, but just my view!
Quote from: davew on December 27, 2020, 07:21:27 PM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on December 27, 2020, 07:08:44 PM
You have left out Tottenham home and away, Man Utd home and away, Chelsea home and away, Arsenal away, Leicester at home, why is that davew ?
I don´t see us getting any points from any of those games, pessimistic I know, but just my view!
Why not, there is only 11 of them, they are not supermen, we have to get amongst them and in their faces, break up play and unsettle their rhythm and at the same time keep our shape our depth and our balance.
We have already shown we can do it against these teams, we just have to do it again. It is called Competing, it is called Application, it is called talking your opponent out of the game, it is called winning your own battles, it is called being a players player, it is called preparation, organisation and passion, then the adrenaline will take you that extra mile.
Interesting to read the comments and the stats. It looks like everyone thinks we're going to be in and around 30-36 points, this will mean regulation. 36-38 and we stand a chance if other terms underperform. If we had a striker then we probably would have won the last 4 games rather than draw them- that would have been an extra 8 points and I'm sure that would have changed the mentality here. Striker absolutely needed in January
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
we have got slightly worse in results wise. first 5 1 point, second 5 6 points last 5 4 points. where as burnely have picked up 8 points in their last 5.
As long as the points total gets us to 8th place or higher, I'm happy. Are we good enough? yes, can we do better? yes, are we making the right decisions on the pitch? some of the time.
Quote from: davew on December 27, 2020, 11:52:21 AM
Really quite depressing looking at the remaining fixtures, in particular the fact that we will have to play Burnley, WBA and Brighton all away. Even though we are playing better except the area that wins matches, I really can´t see us ending up with more than 23 points and that is being optimistic. Interesting to read what you guys think and in particular details of where you think we might get some more points the rest of the season?
Well Dave, if it cheers you up at all, home or away should not really make much difference. I believe the stats are 38% home wins and 39% of games are away wins. Continued absence of crowds should only maintain the lack of home advantage.
The last 4 games against two of the generally stronger sides and two of what may be perceived as weaker teams, have yielded 4 points and on balance I think we were worthy of at least that return, and could have had at least 6. If we averaged a point a game to the end of the season, which that form suggests is highly possible, we end up with 34 points and relegation quite likely. I think this season we need 38 or 39. Can we continue our improvement to make up the difference? In the balance I would say, but we need to get a bit more rub of the green with some key decisions, as we are already in the negative in that respect, and we need to either be more creative or finish the really good chances we have. I think perhaps all sides could make the argument for the latter.
On the negative side, we may cope less well with injuries to key players than other more established premier league sides. Lose more than one of Tosin, Andersen, and Anguissa for any length of time and we could be in trouble. If they stay fit, we have a fighting chance.
Tortuous route to getting there, but I predict 34 to 42 points at the higher end. I believe we can make the top end, but fear the bottom. Let's be positive, afore-mentioned stay fit, we get the rub of the green in a game or two to make up for lost points already, = 41 points and safety with one game to go.
Quote from: Wingnut on December 27, 2020, 01:07:40 PM
35-40, if we sign a goalscorer who can hit the ground running. If we stick with the squad as is, 25-30.
+ 100%. This is a very important window coming up.
I think low 30s will be enough to stay up this season, also think low 30s is where we will end up...going to go down to the wire!
Correction; WBA and She are going down, its all about the third team
Quote from: WokingFFC on December 27, 2020, 12:10:38 PM
43 points and clear of relegation by 7 points
Only if Tony improves the squad like he did the defenders, but gets things sorted as soon as the window opens this time.
We have 10 points from our last 9 matches despite our lack of firepower, and it easily could be 4-5 more without dubious officiating. We've only conceded 13 goals in our last 12 matches. That kind of record gives you a great chance to stay up.
That said, we're really exposed if we lose Anguissa, Anderson or even Areola to any kind of injury. And we need a quality pacy attacker badly.
If things stay the same? I could see 32-36 points. Maybe we barely survive. With 1-2 strategic adds and a bit better luck, I think we stay up.
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Exactly Statto, you've illustrated the point more convincingly than I did.
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points. We may not be great or even good, but we are not at this time the 2nd worst team in the league and unlikly to be for the rest of the season.
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points. We may not be great or even good, but we are not at this time the 2nd worst team in the league and unlikly to be for the rest of the season.
9.5 actually. So one and a half points difference. Not much is it, and the gap will close further if spurs beat us. And it will be bang on the money if Burnley do what they always do and beat us at turf moor.
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points. We may not be great or even good, but we are not at this time the 2nd worst team in the league and unlikly to be for the rest of the season.
If we don´t get any points from the next 4 games or even 1 point, what would be your predictions then based on current form?
Quote from: davew on December 28, 2020, 01:26:37 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points. We may not be great or even good, but we are not at this time the 2nd worst team in the league and unlikly to be for the rest of the season.
If we don´t get any points from the next 4 games or even 1 point, what would be your predictions then based on current form?
if we lose to spurs or draw then our 6 game rolling form is well under a point a game and relegation form
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 12:04:08 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points. We may not be great or even good, but we are not at this time the 2nd worst team in the league and unlikly to be for the rest of the season.
9.5 actually. So one and a half points difference. Not much is it, and the gap will close further if spurs beat us. And it will be bang on the money if Burnley do what they always do and beat us at turf moor.
How do you get 9.5?
(https://i.ibb.co/y56MVMG/15-games.png)
Quote from: davew on December 28, 2020, 01:26:37 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points. We may not be great or even good, but we are not at this time the 2nd worst team in the league and unlikly to be for the rest of the season.
If we don´t get any points from the next 4 games or even 1 point, what would be your predictions then based on current form?
We would be on 11 from 19 and taking in to account who we will have played id have us at 29/30 to end the season at that stage which would then start to go back up as long as we get the results we need in those must win games. Have to take the long vew at times. Currently all on a knife edge.
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 01:42:38 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 12:04:08 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points. We may not be great or even good, but we are not at this time the 2nd worst team in the league and unlikly to be for the rest of the season.
9.5 actually. So one and a half points difference. Not much is it, and the gap will close further if spurs beat us. And it will be bang on the money if Burnley do what they always do and beat us at turf moor.
How do you get 9.5?
(https://i.ibb.co/y56MVMG/15-games.png)
24 dived by 38 times 15, equals 9.5.
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 01:49:14 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 01:42:38 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 12:04:08 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points. We may not be great or even good, but we are not at this time the 2nd worst team in the league and unlikly to be for the rest of the season.
9.5 actually. So one and a half points difference. Not much is it, and the gap will close further if spurs beat us. And it will be bang on the money if Burnley do what they always do and beat us at turf moor.
How do you get 9.5?
(https://i.ibb.co/y56MVMG/15-games.png)
24 dives by 38 times 15
Thats overall, thats not as I explained based on form/results over last 23 games. We would have to be as bad as WBA have been for the rest of the season to be on 24.
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 01:52:20 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 01:49:14 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 01:42:38 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 12:04:08 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points. We may not be great or even good, but we are not at this time the 2nd worst team in the league and unlikly to be for the rest of the season.
9.5 actually. So one and a half points difference. Not much is it, and the gap will close further if spurs beat us. And it will be bang on the money if Burnley do what they always do and beat us at turf moor.
How do you get 9.5?
(https://i.ibb.co/y56MVMG/15-games.png)
24 dives by 38 times 15
Thats overall, thats not as I explained based on form/results over last 23 games. We would have to be as bad as WBA have been for the rest of the season to be on 24.
thats not how I read it, you said that kind of form would have only yielded 8 points from the first 15. It wouldn't, 9.5 would be the points based on a 24 point season up till now. And we aren't far off that.
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 01:54:14 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 01:52:20 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 01:49:14 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 01:42:38 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 12:04:08 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 27, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Projection based on season so far... 28 pts
Based on form over last 11 games... 34 pts
Based on last 6 games... 38 pts
So yes mid-twenties (ie 24-26 pts) is very pessimistic. It assumes that we haven't improved at all since the start of the season, and that we've actually got slightly worse. In other words, it assumes Anderson, Tosin, Areola, Anguissa, Lookman et al haven't improved us. Which to me seems absurd but hey ho
Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points. We may not be great or even good, but we are not at this time the 2nd worst team in the league and unlikly to be for the rest of the season.
9.5 actually. So one and a half points difference. Not much is it, and the gap will close further if spurs beat us. And it will be bang on the money if Burnley do what they always do and beat us at turf moor.
How do you get 9.5?
(https://i.ibb.co/y56MVMG/15-games.png)
24 dives by 38 times 15
Thats overall, thats not as I explained based on form/results over last 23 games. We would have to be as bad as WBA have been for the rest of the season to be on 24.
thats not how I read it, you said that kind of form would have only yielded 8 points from the first 15. It wouldn't, 9.5 would be the points based on a 24 point season up till now. And we aren't far off that.
I cant spell it out to you anymore than I put in the graphic. Im not talking fuill season form to get 24. Just how we get there from where we are now.
And even if you take our current 5 game form that only takes us to 28 points. As it stands we have to match Everton's 12 place form from last year to make it to the magical 40 point mark. Maybe we will, maybe we won't. But we need wins ASAP.
I'm going off this quote " Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points."
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 02:00:47 PM
And even if you take our current 5 game form that only takes us to 28 points. As it stands we have to match Everton's 12 place form from last year to make it to the magical 40 point mark. Maybe we will, maybe we won't. But we need wins ASAP.
we won't need 40, id bite anyones hand off for 36, maybe 35
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 02:02:22 PM
I'm going off this quote " Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points."
maybe I should have said, that kind of form over the last 23 games .....'
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 02:03:56 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 02:00:47 PM
And even if you take our current 5 game form that only takes us to 28 points. As it stands we have to match Everton's 12 place form from last year to make it to the magical 40 point mark. Maybe we will, maybe we won't. But we need wins ASAP.
we won't need 40, id bite anyones hand off for 36, maybe 35
lets hope not mike as I don't see us getting anywhere near that. Especially when the team above us Burnley, are currently going At 8 points from their last 5 at 1.6 a game and would be projected to get 49 points if there form stayed the same.
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 02:04:37 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 02:02:22 PM
I'm going off this quote " Agree with all that. If someone thinks we are only going to get 24 points then that kind of form over the last 15 games would have given us only 8 points."
maybe I should have said, that kind of form over the last 23 games .....'
probably just me being pedantic. No matter how I look at it, I can't see past our current form, form so far, or current tactics resulting in anything over than relegation.
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 02:08:09 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 28, 2020, 02:03:56 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 28, 2020, 02:00:47 PM
And even if you take our current 5 game form that only takes us to 28 points. As it stands we have to match Everton's 12 place form from last year to make it to the magical 40 point mark. Maybe we will, maybe we won't. But we need wins ASAP.
we won't need 40, id bite anyones hand off for 36, maybe 35
lets hope not mike as I don't see us getting anywhere near that. Especially when the team above us Burnley, are currently going At 8 points from their last 5 at 1.6 a game and would be projected to get 49 points if there form stayed the same.
nope, I dont see us on 40 at all. We could with a good wind get to 38 but that would be exceptional. I'm trying to be optimistic and say we can just squeak it, but I'm banking on two wins at the end of January. Without those I dont think we stay up.
Pointless guessing a number, b'coz without a new striker (who scores goals!!) we are relegated
End of.
Quote from: davew on December 27, 2020, 11:52:21 AM
Really quite depressing looking at the remaining fixtures, in particular the fact that we will have to play Burnley, WBA and Brighton all away. Even though we are playing better except the area that wins matches, I really can´t see us ending up with more than 23 points and that is being optimistic. Interesting to read what you guys think and in particular details of where you think we might get some more points the rest of the season?
23 points is your idea of optimistic? Wow.
Quote from: Jim© on December 28, 2020, 10:33:40 PM
Quote from: davew on December 27, 2020, 11:52:21 AM
Really quite depressing looking at the remaining fixtures, in particular the fact that we will have to play Burnley, WBA and Brighton all away. Even though we are playing better except the area that wins matches, I really can´t see us ending up with more than 23 points and that is being optimistic. Interesting to read what you guys think and in particular details of where you think we might get some more points the rest of the season?
23 points is your idea of optimistic? Wow.
Ok after reading the various views, yes 23 was pessimistic and worth a rethink, so I will now go with 29 points and in the unlikely event that we sign a striker and speedy right winger in the transfer window then 34 points might be achievable.
As well as we are playing, I think my prediction is sadly far closer to the truth than most of you have predicted. Hope the 44 members who voted in the 2 top points categories didn't have a bet as I think they will have lost their money already.
We will definitely stay up. Scott has grown into a very good manager and motivator. The players are playing for each other and for him - and really well. Think - Liverpool, Leicester, Tottenham - and we wouldn't have lost to Chelsea with all eleven men on the field.
Quote from: Gandalf on January 16, 2021, 11:04:13 PM
We will definitely stay up. Scott has grown into a very good manager and motivator. The players are playing for each other and for him - and really well. Think - Liverpool, Leicester, Tottenham - and we wouldn't have lost to Chelsea with all eleven men on the field.
Going to stay positive and agree with this. First half today against Cheskie looked great along with the past performances of late. A bit of luck and I think things could be really good for Fulham.
No striker = no goals = no wins
24 to 28 points.
Quote from: Gandalf on January 16, 2021, 11:04:13 PM
We will definitely stay up. Scott has grown into a very good manager and motivator. The players are playing for each other and for him - and really well. Think - Liverpool, Leicester, Tottenham - and we wouldn't have lost to Chelsea with all eleven men on the field.
"Definitely"
That's a strong word for a team that's won 2 games all season. A lot is going to have to start going right, and very soon.
Last 11 games with new signings our record is 2-5-4 say we do that again twice thats 4-10-8 obviously that's 22 games but with 21 left that would leave us around 22 points added leaving us on 34. A few draws in to wins we stay up. Don't worry about others we can only worry about ourselves it's still possible
The sad tjing is that we are playing attractive and very good football and are no way the 18th best/3rd worst team in the league, we need at least 1 striker NOW if not sooner!
2 things we need.
1 home wins
2 a striker before deadline day prefably this week.
Other wise not enough wins, to many draws despite a great team 80% complete. The missing 20%is the final piece of the jigsaw is cutting edge up front.
Also on Mitro if we can't get him back hungry and firing as much as I love the player we need to get rid I didn't imagine say ING this right now but think it's the time.
