I'm sure a little while back someone did analysis of how many points were going to needed to stay up and 35 pts was the figure if memory serves me right. If that is the case then we are 3 wins away from achieving that number with 10 games to go. Looking at our current form and the games we have to play that looks very achievable.
Right from the start of the season the safety target has been 40 points, it still is. Brighton ,Newcastle and Burnley are above us right now and each of them are capable of reaching 40 points.
A way to go yet, lets concentrate on our next match, a point against City on Saturday would be great but most likely leave us in the relegation zone.
Check out Newcastle and Brighton's fixtures. I cannot see them getting 40 points
I reckon it'll be more like 38-40 pts. We don't know if course but I wouldn't want to rely on it being as low as 35pts.
With our form as draw specialists IMO something like WW DDDDDD LL (obviously not necessarily in that order) is an achievable path to safety.
No - I think we are probably 3 wins and 2 draws (giving us 37 points) from being assured that another win against Newcastle on the last day will keep us up. Although, I think we are capable of winning at least 3, I think there is also a possibility that we need to edge towards that points total with draws - so maybe 2 wins and 5 draws for example.
However, I don't believe either Newcastle or Brighton will get more points than that prior to the last game, so hopeful that one or both will be on 34 points or less prior to the last fixture. I would like to think that a win or draw at Southampton will make us safe, although Newcastle have a winnable game at Sheffield Utd on 15 May, so I guess it may still go to the wire...
On current form, we are capable of being safe before the last day because I really hope we don't have to get a result to stay up on the last day of the season. With VAR this season, there are just too many variables that could mean it all goes wrong!
Just as we have won games we were not expected to, you'd have to assume Newcastle and Brighton will too. Brighton also won at Anfield, while Newcastle got a backs to the wall win at Everton. This isn't over by a long way, and both of these teams also don't concede or score too many goals. Goal difference may well come into it. You can be that momentum and team spirit will too. If we'd been offered this position at the start of the season I'd have taken it. But there's a lot of tough games to come. We may well do better in games v e.g. Arsenal or Wolves than we will do against e.g. Burnley or Newcastle.
I feel 37 points but it is wide open tbh, our form is good and we don't fear anyone! start scoring and we will be out of site of the other relegation contenders come the last game of the season. Could be we just need a draw last game because the goal difference is better, but its enjoyable isn't it 049:gif
Too tense for me, though great when we win, or even draw v top teams, except we need wins.
For our survival to depend on the result in the final game v Newcastle seems a nightmare.
Hopefully, we can ensure Prem safety before that game!
Quote from: RaySmith on March 08, 2021, 12:48:24 PM
Too tense for me, though great when we win, or even draw v top teams, except we need wins.
For our survival to depend on the result in the final game v Newcastle seems a nightmare.
Hopefully, we can ensure Prem safety before that game!
I agree with your whole post. We have been through it all before so often but it is getting more tense. i think not going to the game is worse!
I suspoect we will need 38points + to survive.
I can't see either Burnley or Brighton getting more than 36 points,
But Leeds at home is a massive MUST win for us, and it won't be easy, it's also the same weekend that Brighton play Newcastle.
4 wins I think is our magic mark (or 3 wins + 3 draws).
Get to 38 points and we should be safe.
After that display against Liverpool, and honestly our displays since December, we can beat ANYONE. Period. No doubt about it. We're staying up.
Obviously 40 points is the goal to stay up but given the start to season we had I would take 38 right now and see how the chips fall.... 3 wins 3 draws 4 defeats im praying will be enough.
If it's a case of having to beat Newcastle last days so be it, given that bookies were paying out on our relegation after 8 games getting to final game with a shout of staying up is a miracle itself.
If we can carry our 10 game form into the last ten games, we'd finish on 40 points. That'd also mean we probably wouldn't have a last day shootout v Newcastle (we probably shouldn't need to after the poor reffing in the game at theirs).
In my view we have to shoot for 40 points to be sure of staying up, so another 14 pts over 10 games. To get us there we need any of the following:
1. 5 wins and 5 losses
2. 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses
3. 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses
4. 2 wins and 8 draws
Of course option no. 4 goes out the window if we lose against Man City and we'd then have to win a minimum of 3.
It's tough but COYW!
If we win our next 5 we can head to Stamford Bridge already safe. That would be fun.
Alternatively, wouldn't it be nice to win 4 out of the next 5 and then beat Chelsea at their patch to stay up!
I'm 99% sure if we get 37-38 points we stay up
Quote from: Lambo on March 08, 2021, 10:52:08 AM
I'm sure a little while back someone did analysis of how many points were going to needed to stay up and 35 pts was the figure if memory serves me right. If that is the case then we are 3 wins away from achieving that number with 10 games to go. Looking at our current form and the games we have to play that looks very achievable.
There are 7 matches remaining where not getting a result would be disappointing. Arsenal, Newcastle, Southampton, Leeds, Wolves, Villa, and Burnley. 4 wins in those matches with or without some draws would do the trick. While not expecting it, a draw or win against Chelsea, Man United, or even Citeh would not completely shock me either on the team's current form.
39 points should do it.
If we keep this run of form up we could sneak 16th place.
Don't want to get ahead of ourselves though - goals are still very thin on the ground.
We should target achieving at a minimum 14 more points out of a possible 30 points. There is lots of good reasons why we can reach that amount as our good form is no coincidence especially as the likes of Brighton, Burnley and Newcastle will be also fighting for every point.
It's impossible to state "X points will be enough" without knowing whether that includes a win over Newcastle. For the Newcastle game not to matter, we need to gain four more points on them in our next nine matches (10 for them). That's not impossible, and that's what I'd be shooting for.
Assume City is a 0. The next four are against mid-table teams we haven't seen again since they beat us with our bad initial roster. I think we need to shoot for seven points against Leeds, Villa, Wolves and Arsenal. Chelsea, unless they tail off a bit, will be difficult. Give us a 0 there. We'd be on 33 points heading into the Burnley and So'ton games. No reason to think we can't be on 37 heading to Old Trafford. Maybe they have nothing to play for, but a loss there means we'd need Newcastle to only pick up 7 points from their next 10 matches before the finale. Possible, I suppose, but feels like we need a point or three more than this to make the finale irrelevant to us.
At the very, very least, we need to be even with them heading into MD37, when we're at Old Trafford and they're home to Sheff Utd, to make sure we're not dead to them before the finale if things don't go well on MD37.
(tl;dr I think I'm saying ~39 points should be enough. Either we get there by beating Newcastle, or we accumulate that before then and it's good enough to stay ahead of someone else. Beating Burnley leaves us only one point behind them as things stand, so they're still a real target, too)
We have been a mid table team since December. If we get relegated, we will be the best team to get relegated in football history.
Let's hope the Khan's reluctance to pay/act quick enough to get the proper players doesn't come back to bite us.
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on March 08, 2021, 11:16:29 PM
We should target achieving at a minimum 14 more points out of a possible 30 points. There is lots of good reasons why we can reach that amount as our good form is no coincidence especially as the likes of Brighton, Burnley and Newcastle will be also fighting for every point.
We should be happy to get one point against Man City, Man United and Chelsea; the other seven games we should be aiming for 3 points each game. We are aiming for 24 points, we need 10-14 points depending on other games. So, we need success in 50% of our games.
Quote from: roberto w6 on March 08, 2021, 01:53:00 PM
In my view we have to shoot for 40 points to be sure of staying up, so another 14 pts over 10 games. To get us there we need any of the following:
1. 5 wins and 5 losses
2. 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses
3. 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses
4. 2 wins and 8 draws
Of course option no. 4 goes out the window if we lose against Man City and we'd then have to win a minimum of 3.
It's tough but COYW!
I think we should try and win every game 064.gif but I agree 40 points should probably be enough. Sooner rather than later.
Quote from: The Rational Fan on March 09, 2021, 03:11:25 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on March 08, 2021, 11:16:29 PM
We should target achieving at a minimum 14 more points out of a possible 30 points. There is lots of good reasons why we can reach that amount as our good form is no coincidence especially as the likes of Brighton, Burnley and Newcastle will be also fighting for every point.
We should be happy to get one point against Man City, Man United and Chelsea; the other seven games we should be aiming for 3 points each game. We are aiming for 24 points, we need 10-14 points depending on other games. So, we need success in 50% of our games.
Yes and by achieving that we will be safe.
I mentioned a while back that 35 may be enough.
My reasoning is that we could have as many as 37 points going into the last game of the season with Newcastle 2 points adrift but if they beat us (fulhamish!) last game of the season they can spoil all our good work.
But if we fail to overhaul them by the last game of the season and we are behind by 2 or 3 points and only on 32, a win would do the business for us!
Of course there's lots of permutations.
Sorry to keep repeating myself but I still don't think Newcastle are the issue, especially when their star players come back shortly, for me its all about Brighton and Burnley, and I absolutely think we can overtake at least one of them.
Quote from: Riversider on March 09, 2021, 02:18:26 PM
Sorry to keep repeating myself but I still don't think Newcastle are the issue, especially when their star players come back shortly, for me its all about Brighton and Burnley, and I absolutely think we can overtake at least one of them.
What do you mean Newcastle aren't the issue?
Do you mean that we realistically can't catch them and are more likely to overtake Burnley or Brighton?
For what it's worth I think Brighton are very similar to us - a well-organised side who are difficult to break down but have problems scoring goals.
Burnley (as per every year) look ordinary on paper but Dyche always finds a way to grind out enough results to keep them in the league.
Newcastle in my opinion are the ones we need to focus on. It will be difficult for them to pick up enough points with the likes of Wilson, St Maximin and Almiron out, and their leader in the backline (Schar) out also.
Quote from: FFC In Oz on March 09, 2021, 02:56:07 PM
Quote from: Riversider on March 09, 2021, 02:18:26 PM
Sorry to keep repeating myself but I still don't think Newcastle are the issue, especially when their star players come back shortly, for me its all about Brighton and Burnley, and I absolutely think we can overtake at least one of them.
What do you mean Newcastle aren't the issue?
Do you mean that we realistically can't catch them and are more likely to overtake Burnley or Brighton?
For what it's worth I think Brighton are very similar to us - a well-organised side who are difficult to break down but have problems scoring goals.
Burnley (as per every year) look ordinary on paper but Dyche always finds a way to grind out enough results to keep them in the league.
Newcastle in my opinion are the ones we need to focus on. It will be difficult for them to pick up enough points with the likes of Wilson, St Maximin and Almiron out, and their leader in the backline (Schar) out also.
Inclined to agree. Newcastle's best players aren't coming back (at least to full fitness) any time soon and it sounds like Bruce has lost the dressing room. They're now favourites to finish 17th, and that's for good reason.
With that said, we all know how the game goes, you can guarantee someone down our end of the table will turn their form around, and someone else will capitulate, and who knows which will be which? That's why IMO it's so beneficial that there are three other teams in the mix with us, not just one.
I also think Burnley have the most inherently crap squad in the league. On that metric they should be about 14th in the Championship.
Run through a few predictors and 37 will prob be enough but it's so tight.
