How long are we giving Arbeloa?

[Moussa Dembele the 3rd]

Actually, while we're talking about an incredibly small sample, our xG has improved considerably this year. We're on pace for an xG of ~69 (last year it was 48.4). However it's worth nothing that our xGOT is pretty anemic (xG of 5.42 v. xGOT of 2.98...in short our finishing has been very poor...4 actual goals for a 38 match pace of ~51...the same amount we scored last season).

But as you note, our xGA has increased considerably. We're on pace to concede an xGA of ~79 (v. 53.4 last season) which would be worse than Burnley who allowed the worst xGA last season. Worse, we're on pace to allow ~89 actual goals, with the difference between xGA and GA due primarily to poor goalkeeping. The last time a PL side allowed 89 or more was Sheffield United in 23-24. And worth noting that two of our 3 opponents thus far are hardly teams that are expected to be terribly proficient in front of the net this season (they were 17th and 18th in the PL in goals scored last season).

On the topic of this thread, I'd generally be in the camp of giving a new guy a decent run of matches, but I'm increasingly concerned by what I'm seeing from AA. He seems dead set on playing a style that I don't believe ANY midtable PL side can play. If he doesn't start showing some flexibility/pragmatism soon, I'd like to see us pull the trigger pretty quickly. I think there is more than enough talent in this squad to comfortably stay up and if he can't make it work, let's get somebody in who can.

Just came across another concerning stat from yesterday (and frankly all season). For all the talk of our improved offensive performance, Palace had 6 big chances while we only had 2 (Sun 4/Ful 1, Che 4/Ful 2).

That tracks with what I noticed watching the game, we created a lot of half-chances but not really many good ones. 25 shots with only 6 on target also speaks to that.

[LC]

To me it is absolutely wild that people are already asking for him to be replaced. I think offensively we have improved massively compared to what we saw under silva. We lost three games all by one goal and a lot of the goals were down to individual errors.
Let's see how the new guys will do for themselves. Defense might look better already with affengruber in the mix.
Im optimistic that we're staying up and for the first time in forever we're fun to watch again!

Individual errors caused by our tactics. We lost those games because of the manager. I highly doubt he'll change his style of play or adapt it. I hope I'm wrong, but if there is no improvement or change in tactics over the next two games then we know he won't change a thing and it's time to move on.

I guarantee if we play badly in the next two and lose the poll will look wildly different. I made another thread saying he has two games to save his job and I think that's likely. Eddie Howe for me and I think he would come.

[Chi_FFC]

Well, AA is going to get longer than Fabio Grosso did at Fiorentina!
https://x.com/FabrizioRomano/status/2096712646863061161?s=20

[LC]

One side point I would like to make, after the Liverpool and Man United games, the following three games are Ipswich, Hull and Coventry. If we play badly and lose our next two games do we chance keeping AA in place with those three games next. It will be a huge call either way. If we are to change manager we need to do it going into the international break before those three games or we make our bed and sleep in it. I think I've made my position pretty clear in what we should do.

[Thailand Mick]

To me it is absolutely wild that people are already asking for him to be replaced. I think offensively we have improved massively compared to what we saw under silva. We lost three games all by one goal and a lot of the goals were down to individual errors.
Let's see how the new guys will do for themselves. Defense might look better already with affengruber in the mix.
Im optimistic that we're staying up and for the first time in forever we're fun to watch again!

We basically have the same xG through three games as we did all of last year, however our expected goals against has tripled. So to say that our offense has improved massively might just be our eyes deceiving us.

I'm one of the older bunch but some of these stats are garbage, at Sunderland they said we had zero attempts on target but out of the eleven shots we had only three were off target. They didn't count the eight on target because those shots were stopped by the defender.

[hovewhite]

How long are we giving you lot of moaners,,

[McBrideOfFrankenstein]

Wanted to chime in here. I am generally one of the more positive members of this board and I tend to give managers the benefit of the doubt because of how much more access they have to the players in training & out of our view.

The single thing that has given me the most worry isn't the squad, it isn't the transfers, or even the general play style we've shown through three games. 

It's Arbeloa's subs. And to a lesser degree his lineups, particularly forcing in Palacios. They have seemed totally daft to me, even game-killing at times, and betray a real misunderstanding of how he needs to use the existing attacking talent on this roster. With so many goals from Harry & Jimenez gone, we always had to squeeze as much goal potential as we could out of Kevin, Smith Rowe, and Iwobi.  Instead he has played them out of position, made them switch positions mid-stream at the wrong times, or not played them at all.

In my opinion it's not a coincidence that Kevin, Smith Rowe, and Iwobi are the players who appear to be rebelling on social media. Even before that happened, they were the three I thought he was gravely misusing. If we don't get some or all of the best out of them the rest of the season, I believe we go down. We do not have enough firepower otherwise.

[Rodshig]

If we sack him, the 3 new spanish players will start to sulk and may leave in Jan.  He is the only reason why they joined.

Gonzalo is special, probably one of the best strikers we had. He is also possibly one of the reason why our attack looks decent so far.

So in some ways, we are stucked with AA?

[AnOldBrownie]

Until May,2027

[Jim©]

To me it is absolutely wild that people are already asking for him to be replaced. I think offensively we have improved massively compared to what we saw under silva. We lost three games all by one goal and a lot of the goals were down to individual errors.
Let's see how the new guys will do for themselves. Defense might look better already with affengruber in the mix.
Im optimistic that we're staying up and for the first time in forever we're fun to watch again!

We basically have the same xG through three games as we did all of last year, however our expected goals against has tripled. So to say that our offense has improved massively might just be our eyes deceiving us.

5.49 our xg for the same three games this season, 4.01 our xg last season, six points last season from same fixtures.
5.37 against this season v 5.31 last season. Conceded 4 last season conceded 7 this season.

[davew]

I have gone for 5 games not I think that it really matters. If somebody else takes over we still have the same squad until the next transfer window and how much more are we allowed to spend within the rules, not much I suspect. Wouldnt say we should be written off yet but the future this season does not look bright.

[fulhamfan]

he needs a bit of time. lets see where we are by Halloween then we should know. if we are on 0 points by then then yeh we have to get rid.

[Moonraker]

he needs a bit of time. lets see where we are by Halloween then we should know. if we are on 0 points by then then yeh we have to get rid.

We all need to keep calm until after the Hull game at the Cottage

[Lordedmundo]

If you sack a manager after 3 (or even 5, 6 games) what happens if the next manager comes in and there is no improvement after the same number of games? Do you sack him as well? If some people had their way - we might be on our fourth manager before Xmas!

It's going to be tough, but I think we can get 7 points from the next 5.  From then, I think we will slowly move up to a safer position by the end of December.

[Bassey the warrior]

Happy to see the silent (or at least quiet) majority agree with me. The loud negativity has been very depressng

[jarv]

Need to persevere with him. Way too soon to tell.  Personally, I did think he was a bad choice. No premier league experience (not always a bad thing but a gamble), history of being an assistant, so limited track record.  All we can do now is wait and see (and hope) because we have some very good players.

[Sgt Fulham]

Happy to see the silent (or at least quiet) majority agree with me. The loud negativity has been very depressng

I mean, nearly 50% of voters would have him gone after 6 games if we see no improvement in the next two. Those 2 are Liverpool and United. Not great, is it?

[fulhamfan]

all the losses have been narrow as well. not like we've been battered

[F(f)CUK]

I have voted for him to go now. I know that this is harsh and I know that it is unpopular.

I would be happy for him to stay if he could tone down his high line approach. If he only attacked with one fullback and not both at the same time. Allow the other one to sit back with the central defenders so that they are prepared for a counter attack.

We were playing with all 10 men well inside Palace's half at times and not just from corners.

People should stop blaming individual players as we are relying on players to never turn the ball over or be prepared to run back 50 yards as a long hoof has just cut our team to pieces and allowed a speedy winger a stupid amount of space.

We are too easy to play against. We are relying on individual defensive brilliance to get us out of holes. The result will be that we need to score 4 to be in with a chance of winning.

I admire those that think that our players can adapt to this approach but unfortunately the opposition can also and as I said we are too easy to play against.

I don't think that Arbeloa, who has gone all in on these tactics, will change.

So it is nothing personal but the sooner that someone at the club realises that this is an impossible experiment the better.

I would rather see Dyche's or Parker's defensive dross at the moment than this, because I know that we are going to lose.

I know that I am ready to be attacked for these views, but I think that more people will come round to my thinking as time goes by.

I hope that I am wrong because imagine how good it would be if we could get this to work.

[the nutflush]

Happy to see the silent (or at least quiet) majority agree with me. The loud negativity has been very depressng

I mean, nearly 50% of voters would have him gone after 6 games if we see no improvement in the next two. Those 2 are Liverpool and United. Not great, is it?

United are hardly setting the world on fire.  If Marco was still in charge we would be looking at that as a winnable fixture.  But now...