Looking at the table

[AlFayedsChequebook]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/table/default.stm

God it is tight, anyone from 9th down is realistically in the relegation mix this season.

No need to panic yet, lets wait until we reach Christmas day with 10 points.

[aussierod]

Was looking at that this morning, if we got the 1 point yesterday after the handball and the 3 we missed from Zamora's miss against Everton (very realistic missed points) we would be sitting nicely in mid-table. Our luck certainly has to change soon

[DukeTyrion]

Was looking at that this morning, if we got the 1 point yesterday after the handball and the 3 we missed from Zamora's miss against Everton (very realistic missed points) we would be sitting nicely in mid-table. Our luck certainly has to change soon

I thought our luck changed at Wigan.

Looking at the table though, it certainly does look like Wigan, Blackburn and A.N.Other (Norwich?)

[MJG]

The worry (and I always worry) is that I can not see us repeating the great run we had in the second half of the last season. You do that run maybe once every 5 years in this lge.
We need to get points, I know its stating the bleeding obvious but being proud and talking about luck does not help really.
I really do think now that given the fixtures to come and the way this season will pan out then its bottom 6 for a long time.

[BalDrick]

Blackburn, surely one day soon, will relieve the chauffeur and get a manager in. Wigan I simply can't see staying up, Naaaridge I haven't seen yet but they seem to be picking up points at good places.

But I'm sure we will have enough to stay up, relatively easily.

[FC Silver Fox]

10 points from 11 games.  Continuing this trend will give us 35 points at the end of the season. Something has to change.

I'm finding this season perplexing and frustrating. When we play well and outplay the opposition we often get nothing and when we play badly we get 3 points.

[jarv]

Mr. Baldrick, I too think we will stay up...but not easily. Boxing day, I bet 17th or 18th. Relegation battle, definitely on. Too good to go down? Look at Newcastle and West Ham in recent years. I am not confident until we get to about 14th.

Agree with others, Wigan and Blackburn look doomed and hopes are at least one promoted team goes back down. Usually do! :028:

[Edwatch_Winston_Malone]

Isn't it a tad early to be takling about relegation battles.  I would not be surprised if at least 2 of the current bottom 3 were not there after the new year...

[MJG]

Isn't it a tad early to be takling about relegation battles.  I would not be surprised if at least 2 of the current bottom 3 were not there after the new year...

No its not too early, if you look at the table last year after 13 games over the sason the table changes very little. We were the biggest movers at the time:(this was on another thread but here it is)but not a lot changes that much.


As a snapshot last season here are the positions after 13 games and then where they finished in the table:

13th Game pos  (final position) Change
1: Chelsea         (2) -1
2: Arsenal          (4) -2
3: Man Utd        (1) +2
4: Man City       (4) N/C
5: Bolton          (14) -9
6: Sunderland   (10) -4
7: Spurs           (5)  +2
8: Newcastle    (12) -4
9: Villa            (9) N/C
10: Stoke        (13) -3
11: Liverpool    (6) +5
12: WBA          (11) +1
13: Everton      (7) +6
14: Blackburn   (15) -1
15: Blackpool   (19) -4
16: Fulham      (8) +8
17: Wigan       (16) +1
18: Birmingham (18) N/C
19: Wolves      (17) +2
20 West Ham    (20) N/C

We were the biggest positive movers and Bolton the worst but all in all things did not change that much from what we saw after 13 games.

[jarv]

Thanks for that, interesting. You would expect Liverpool and Everton to climb from where they were which makes Fulham's achievement truly remarkable.

Bolton? Good news (until saturday) they seem to still be in free fall.

I agree, it is not too soon to talk about relegation battles. Starting with Sunderland, a 6 pointer if ever there was one.  (but we never do well in the north east!!!)

[BalDrick]

We've done pretty well in the North East of late though.

Not sure I'd count my chickens on Blackburn going down (see what I've done there?), they'll get a proper manager in sooner or later I suspect. I wouldn't bet on Wigan staying up though.

[Berserker]

I'm worried, but then i always am. I sit there worried at matches and even if we sre 2 nil up i still worry that the other side will have a come back beat us, eg Everton. Sometimes i think i don't have the right personality to be a Fulham supporter : (

[MJG]

Fulham's achievement truly remarkable.

And I keep saying that about last season. The second half results were great, but to repeat something like that would be out of the ordinary. We are playing catch up again to get to the magical 40 pt mark. Ok we only have to play like a mid table team to reach 40, but thats just to reach 40. To get to say 48 again we need play like the 7-8th best team in the lge for the rest of the season.

I'm resigned to the fact we are going to bottom half for the rest of the season and mainly bottom 6 until well into the new year. I base this on the fixtures we have coming up and then the need to get real results after that.
No more heroic defeats required.

[aFFCn_Fan]

Fulham's achievement truly remarkable.

I'm resigned to the fact we are going to bottom half for the rest of the season and mainly bottom 6 until well into the new year. I base this on the fixtures we have coming up and then the need to get real results after that.

I have based our plight on our points total. I know we're at 11 games now, but bear with me. We sat with 10 points after 10 games, averaging a point a game, which means that we're destined for 38 points, which is probably borderline relegation. Sure a season is a long time, but we're over quarterway through. Sure, we've played a couple fo good teams and some bad, and results have been varied. And certainly we've looked better recently (as per new manager syndrome). But I'm pessimistic and worrysome (surely an integral trait of being a Fulham supporter Mr Beserker). I think there are worse teams there than us and hope there will be at least three worse than us and we'll be fine. Because where I live relegation means no TV time  :012:

[RidgeRider]

Fulham's achievement truly remarkable.

And I keep saying that about last season. The second half results were great, but to repeat something like that would be out of the ordinary. We are playing catch up again to get to the magical 40 pt mark. Ok we only have to play like a mid table team to reach 40, but thats just to reach 40. To get to say 48 again we need play like the 7-8th best team in the lge for the rest of the season.

I'm resigned to the fact we are going to bottom half for the rest of the season and mainly bottom 6 until well into the new year. I base this on the fixtures we have coming up and then the need to get real results after that.
No more heroic defeats required.

I think the one thing that gives me hope for a second half run is that we are in much the same position this year as last with the exception of the Europa League competition. We have another new manager. A fairly deep squad (deeper than last years I think) and because of it a squad who is adapting to a way of playing that is different than what they have played over the last 3.5 seasons. If we gel, as we are starting to see, no reason we can't have another run like last years because the circumstances are not that much different in that we have essentially the same players plus a few others who know how to win together and play tough when the chips are down.

[BalDrick]

This ought to (but probably won't!) quell your fears a tad:

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

[AlFayedsChequebook]

Interesting take on why the table might actually be lying:

http://eircomsports.eircom.net/News/PL-review-week11.aspx

Looking back at previous Novembers in the Premier League, here are a few definite truths that arose at the time:

- Chelsea are nailed-on certainties for a second title (November 2010)

- Blackpool's brio has ensured their survival (November 2010)

-This is set to be the highest-scoring Premier League season since its inception (November 2009)

- Luis Felipe Scolari has adapted to English football effortlessly (November 2008)

- Hull City/Reading might make Europe (November 2008/2006)

- Arsenal are certainties for a strong title challenge (November 2007)

- Gerard Houllier looks set to end Liverpool's long wait for a title (November 2002)

- Manchester United will endure another year without the title (November 1992)

- Ron Atkinson looks set end United's long wait for a title (November 1985)

- At ninth in the table, Liverpool are going to go a second year without the league (November 1981)



As barely needs to be added, all of these proclamations proved inaccurate. In some cases, wildly. But they are worth keeping in mind when you consider the predictions already being made for this campaign after the first weekend of fixtures in November:

- City are going to effortlessly surge to the title

- Chelsea don't look ready to challenge in the manager's first season

- after such a superb winning run, Tottenham look best placed for fourth

- all of the promoted sides, currently occupying ninth, 10th and 11th in the table, are good bets to stay up

- Wigan are doomed



Without wishing to debate each of these statements individually at this juncture, in general the proclamations at the top prove that 11 games and three months are simply not evidence to make proper evaluations about players, managers and clubs. In some cases, squads are just getting to know each other. In others, teams have either or benefitted or suffered from a particularly lopsided opening set of fixtures. A signing or injury can change everything. And, most importantly a run of results after Christmas – be it winning or losing – can prove much more important than an opposite run beforehand. The hugely influential pressures and tensions of March/April have yet to played under.

As it stands, the table isn't quite telling the full truth yet.

[MJG]

Interesting take on why the table might actually be lying:

http://eircomsports.eircom.net/News/PL-review-week11.aspx

Looking back at previous Novembers in the Premier League, here are a few definite truths that arose at the time:

- Chelsea are nailed-on certainties for a second title (November 2010)

- Blackpool’s brio has ensured their survival (November 2010)

-This is set to be the highest-scoring Premier League season since its inception (November 2009)

- Luis Felipe Scolari has adapted to English football effortlessly (November 2008)

- Hull City/Reading might make Europe (November 2008/2006)

- Arsenal are certainties for a strong title challenge (November 2007)

- Gerard Houllier looks set to end Liverpool’s long wait for a title (November 2002)

- Manchester United will endure another year without the title (November 1992)

- Ron Atkinson looks set end United’s long wait for a title (November 1985)

- At ninth in the table, Liverpool are going to go a second year without the league (November 1981)



As barely needs to be added, all of these proclamations proved inaccurate. In some cases, wildly. But they are worth keeping in mind when you consider the predictions already being made for this campaign after the first weekend of fixtures in November:

- City are going to effortlessly surge to the title

- Chelsea don’t look ready to challenge in the manager’s first season

- after such a superb winning run, Tottenham look best placed for fourth

- all of the promoted sides, currently occupying ninth, 10th and 11th in the table, are good bets to stay up

- Wigan are doomed



Without wishing to debate each of these statements individually at this juncture, in general the proclamations at the top prove that 11 games and three months are simply not evidence to make proper evaluations about players, managers and clubs. In some cases, squads are just getting to know each other. In others, teams have either or benefitted or suffered from a particularly lopsided opening set of fixtures. A signing or injury can change everything. And, most importantly a run of results after Christmas – be it winning or losing – can prove much more important than an opposite run beforehand. The hugely influential pressures and tensions of March/April have yet to played under.

As it stands, the table isn’t quite telling the full truth yet.

Thats all true, but I would argue that on average the positions will not change much over the rest of the season.
We normally see one team drop like a stone, another surge up the table, and another fight its way out the bottom three.
But by this time the teams involved in the drop & europe are I would say are 90% right. If you take Newcastle they have only played 3 of the other 9 teams in the top ten, they will falter and drop down to 5-7th place come the new year, talk of them being top 4 is very wide of the mark.
Likewise at the bottom you could argue that Bolton have had the worst run of teams to play and will start moving up.

[aussierod]

Well if anyone was to put money that Swansea, QPR and Norwich will be above us or even near the top 10 by the end of the season is a much braver man than I am. We should also certainly finish higher than Wigan, Blackburn and West Brom, whilst our squad is strongly comparable if not better than Stoke, Sunderland, Villa, Newcastle, Everton etc. We are sitting poorly but we aren't sitting far off anyone apart from the top 6. I expect Newcastle to begin dropping soon, although they are a good side, I don't think they have enough quality and teams will figure them out soon

[BalDrick]

Re Stoke, think a lot depends on how long we both stay in Europa. I'm kind of torn on it myself, silly to want it not to last when we probably won't go down even if we go one better than last time.