Attacking Partnerships

[Humbled]

a few stats.... i just hope they are correct lol

how our attackers stacked up last season (based on starts) -

Berbatov Alone - played 1 Lost 1
Berbatov + Hugo - played 7 Won 3 Drew 3 Lost 1
Berbatov + Petric - played 2 Lost 2
Ruiz + Hugo - played 2 Drew 1 Lost 1
Ruiz + Petric - played 2 Won 1 Lost 1
Berbatov + Ruiz + Petric - played 2 Drew 1 Lost 1
Berbatov + Ruiz + Hugo - played 2 Won 1 Drew 1
Berbatov + Ruiz - played 17 Won 5 Drew 4 Lost 8
Berbatov + Petric + Hugo - played 1 Won 1
Ruiz + Petric + Hugo - played 1 Lost 1
Neither Berba or Ruiz - Played 1 Lost 1

Berbatov                                    Ruiz                                        Hugo                               Petric
Played 32                                   Played 26                                Played 14                         Played 9
Won 10 Drew 9 Lost 13               Won 7 Drew 7 Lost 12              Won 5 Drew 5 Lost 4         Won 2 Drew 1 Lost 6

[EJL]

Actually, we have won a game with Berba and Petric starting together: Villa at home.

Edit: jumped the gun; didn't see the Berba + Petric + Rodallega bracket.

[Humbled]

Actually, we have won a game with Berba and Petric starting together: Villa at home.

that was Berba, Rodders AND Petric so falls in that bracket!!

[Nero]

We need a Pie Chart

[Craven Mad]

But this doesn't reveal the true picture, at all.

There's a statistical bias, in so far as not all games are equal.

Taking Ruiz and Rodders for example, 24.1% of Hugo's games started were against bottom 3 teams, whilst for Bryan it was just 11.5%. Then for starts against the top 10 teams, Ruiz = 57.7% and Hugo = 42.8%. Therefore, Bryan played (relatively) more games against the top 10 teams and (relatively) less against bottom 3 than Hugo.

Thus, we can conclude that Hugo was preferred in easier games to Ruiz, possibly to enable Bryan to rest. This would then skew the W/L/D results in Rodders favour.

This is just one way in which the very basic statistics do not demonstrate "how our attackers stacked up last season" with any accuracy.

To use a tired cliché: "Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."

[cmg]

We need a Pie Chart

Forget the 'chart' and I'm with you.

[Humbled]

But this doesn't reveal the true picture, at all.

There's a statistical bias, in so far as not all games are equal.

Taking Ruiz and Rodders for example, 24.1% of Hugo's games started were against bottom 3 teams, whilst for Bryan it was just 11.5%. Then for starts against the top 10 teams, Ruiz = 57.7% and Hugo = 42.8%. Therefore, Bryan played (relatively) more games against the top 10 teams and (relatively) less against bottom 3 than Hugo.

Thus, we can conclude that Hugo was preferred in easier games to Ruiz, possibly to enable Bryan to rest. This would then skew the W/L/D results in Rodders favour.

This is just one way in which the very basic statistics do not demonstrate "how our attackers stacked up last season" with any accuracy.

To use a tired cliché: "Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."

i am going to check your percentages to ensure they are correct lol

however i didnt put it up to prove anything, simply for info....

Using your idea though do i write of 4 of the 5 goals Ruiz scored as 1 was a clear OG and 3 were against reading??
leaving just 1, against Swansea which we lost anyway making that goal - pointless.. literally  :hook:

[btings]

Even adjusting for opposition, I think this is probably still not going deep enough.  I'd be interested to seeing how certain partnerships translated into things like goals (obviously), shots on target, shots (total), etc.  You would also need to break it by minutes played together, since lineups change during the game.

This would require opta data, basically.

[Craven Mad]

But this doesn't reveal the true picture, at all.

There's a statistical bias, in so far as not all games are equal.

Taking Ruiz and Rodders for example, 24.1% of Hugo's games started were against bottom 3 teams, whilst for Bryan it was just 11.5%. Then for starts against the top 10 teams, Ruiz = 57.7% and Hugo = 42.8%. Therefore, Bryan played (relatively) more games against the top 10 teams and (relatively) less against bottom 3 than Hugo.

Thus, we can conclude that Hugo was preferred in easier games to Ruiz, possibly to enable Bryan to rest. This would then skew the W/L/D results in Rodders favour.

This is just one way in which the very basic statistics do not demonstrate "how our attackers stacked up last season" with any accuracy.

To use a tired cliché: "Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."

i am going to check your percentages to ensure they are correct lol

however i didnt put it up to prove anything, simply for info....

Using your idea though do i write of 4 of the 5 goals Ruiz scored as 1 was a clear OG and 3 were against reading??
leaving just 1, against Swansea which we lost anyway making that goal - pointless.. literally  :hook:

Performance data for each player for the past season:

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/en/hugo-rodallega/leistungsdaten/spieler_37934.html

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/en/bryan-ruiz/leistungsdaten/spieler_39642.html

I wouldn't write off the goals, simply because Bryan still made the effort and got them, and just because the team didn't win doesn't mean the Bryan didn't score. Bryan did get those goals! He also chipped in with a load of assists, tackles and passes that really set him apart from the rest. The "Attacking" opta stats from the offal are very useful to help see this.

[MJG]

But this doesn't reveal the true picture, at all.

There's a statistical bias, in so far as not all games are equal.

Taking Ruiz and Rodders for example, 24.1% of Hugo's games started were against bottom 3 teams, whilst for Bryan it was just 11.5%. Then for starts against the top 10 teams, Ruiz = 57.7% and Hugo = 42.8%. Therefore, Bryan played (relatively) more games against the top 10 teams and (relatively) less against bottom 3 than Hugo.

Thus, we can conclude that Hugo was preferred in easier games to Ruiz, possibly to enable Bryan to rest. This would then skew the W/L/D results in Rodders favour.

This is just one way in which the very basic statistics do not demonstrate "how our attackers stacked up last season" with any accuracy.

To use a tired cliché: "Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."

using the link you gave, ruiz was injured for 8 games and only missed 1 game where he was not picked. So not really rested against weaker sides at all.

[Humbled]

i find it funny im sorry.....
You point out 24.1% of Rodders games were against bottom 3 clubs and use it as a negative (despite games he started in getting us 20 points) but there is nothing negative using your previous stats about 75% of Ruiz goals being against a bottom 3 club??? im not counting the Everton goal as i dont know how that was his goal.
This post was not to bash Ruiz but you are so pro Ruiz its unreal.
I wonder are you someone that also thinks Duff is useless which has been posted alot recently???
if you are what makes ur man of the moment Ruiz statistically any better using what you said regarding opposition?

EDIT - i didnt start this thread to argue how good Ruiz is or even who is better, i did it as i found it interesting....
If others do then great. If they dont thats fine also.

[jarv]

Despite me not being too hot on stats, excellent post. Food for thought.

[zschwartz]

Hum- Enjoyed reading the stats.  082.gif Thanks for putting them together. They do look accurate, technically, but they do not go into an adequate level of detail to appreciate the situation fully. I think there are several important points forum members would do well to consider when reading them.

Several examples of the complexity that skew or weight the data set:

The 0-1 loss away to Everton Berbatov is subbed OFF at 30' to be replaced by Petric.

The 1-3 home loss to Sunderland Rodallega is subbed ON at 27' replacing Kacaniklic.

The 2-4 home loss to Reading Rodallega was subbed ON at 28' replacing Giorgos Karagounis.

Under the applied framework Berbatov is listed as having a loss in a game that he only took part in for 30 minutes and Rodallega does not list two losses in matches that he participated in for over an hour.

Additionally, this is a post comparing strikers and center-attacking midfielders. Two of Rodallega's listed wins come from starts where he was positioned on the wing while 2 other outfield players were positioned in front: the 1-0 home win against Aston Villa and the 3-1 Home win against West Ham.

Rodallega was not the only player who at times covered alternative positions.  Ruiz is counted as having a draw from central midfield in the 1-1 home match with Wigan.  He also appears to have picked up a loss in the 0-1 home loss to Chelsea while playing on the right wing. 

Adjusting for this to more accurately represent what appears to be the given comparison (Striking partnerships at FFC 2012-13), a more legitimate tally might be (W-L-D):

Berbatov: 10-12-9
Ruiz: 7-11-6
Rodallega: 3-4*-5
Petric: 2-7-1

Unless we are going to broaden the dataset to also include other wingers and central attacking midfielders the conclusions that can be drawn are limited. Or, if the set is refined to reflect what would seem to be compared (points from starting strike partnerships), the data tells a different story.



*The two 27' and 28' minute hour-long sub appearances were not included in Rodallega's loss tally as he was playing, again, on the wing.

[Ruiz11]

Fairly meaningless stats I'm afraid as they don't take into account the strength of the team in other positions, external factors such as red cards and also only based on starts.

Clearly our best partnership is Bryan and Berba, although interestingly Petric had the best goals per mins ratio, suggesting that it was unfair for Jol to drop him just because Berba signed. Hugo offers pace and penetration but struggles for goals and definitely is not a left or right winger, despite Jol's tinkering.

[Humbled]

Fairly meaningless stats I'm afraid as they don't take into account the strength of the team in other positions, external factors such as red cards and also only based on starts.

Clearly our best partnership is Bryan and Berba, although interestingly Petric had the best goals per mins ratio, suggesting that it was unfair for Jol to drop him just because Berba signed. Hugo offers pace and penetration but struggles for goals and definitely is not a left or right winger, despite Jol's tinkering.

not for me....
I would like a fast striker to compliment the slow precise ability of a Berba or Ruiz (although Berba is better of the 2)
i said from the start i was only using starts...
Rodders playing out of position so often only makes his stats better for me...
Rodders coming on in the sunderland game after 28mins ur correct - we also had 10 men.....
The reason i only used starts was because players such as Petric when coming on as a sub showed little interest (most the time due to the fact he deserved to start but Ruiz or Berba happened to be fit again)

again the stats weren't to prove anything...
I do find it funny though how Berba + Ruiz partnership fan boys will blame the midfield for their lack of penetration yet Duff who scored 3 (6points) and assisted 8 was POOR, yet when does he get the excuse of having no one in the box to cross to?????

Im going by my eyes and not stats and last season FOR ME Ruiz and Berba lacked penetration and defenders had an easy time defending against them when it was JUST them 2. i think we would have been a lot more dangerous had we had a fast goal scorer ahead of 1 them or, if we could accommodate, both of them

[Herbie]

I agree, Humbled. I'm get the feeling that Ruiz-Berba are the equivalent of Lampard-Gerrard; on paper it looks amazing but in reality it doesn't give you the sum of the parts.

For me, when it's just Berba and Ruiz as the forwards, we lack a focal point up top and we try to walk it through the defence.  We seem to be more attacking when it's Berba-Ruiz-Hugo/petric.  The problem is finding a team shape that accommodates that.  Perhaps a midfield 3 of dejagah-boateng/sidwell-Kaca, then Ruiz and Berba in between the lines, then a striker. The danger with that is getting overrun in midfield when we don't have the ball.