A new book discusses Darren Bent's value

[Forever Fulham]

I've been critical of Bent in past posts, noting his age, his weaknesses (doesn't hold the ball up particularly well, doesn't distribute, doesn't transition well on lost possession, seems moody, etc.)  And I've questioned the wisdom of bringing him on as spear tip, when it looked like we needed someone with different qualities.  But a new book has come out, The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Football is Wrong, by Chris Anderson and David Sally.  And starts an entire chapter with a nod to Darren Bent.  It's in the same mold as Moneyball -- some of you may have seen the screen adaptation starring Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill -- about how a statistician forever changed the way baseball games are managed, players recruited/traded. Or the Freakanomics series of books in which an economics professor startles the reader with counterintuitive analysis which oddly makes real sense. Anyway, I was driving into work this morning when Men In Blazers' Roger Bennett and Michael Davis were interviewing the author, and he was discussing his book.  It was extremely interesting. 

One chapter leads off with a discussion of Darren Bent, explaining how underappreciated he is.  The premise is that statistical studies show that Darren Bent gets an inordinate number of "all-important" second goals, that the second goals are more important than the first, third, or even fourth goal in a game in deciding  whether a team wins or loses.  (Fernando Torres has a high number of 3rd and fourth goals where the game is already decided...)  I won't spoil the rest of the read, but it makes Bent out to be one of the three or four most valuable players in the league in terms of  outcome effectiveness .  Anybody else heard about this book?

[Forever Fulham]

http://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/may/24/numbers-game-everything-football-wrong#start-of-comments

Here's a link to an online review. 

[Forever Fulham]

"It's better to improve your worse starter than to buy a superstar."

[farfouille]

"It's better to improve your worse starter than to buy a superstar."

Sounds really nice, but Real are now selling Bale shirts before even signing the player...

[Bassey the warrior]

Really enjoyed Freakonomics, may have to get this. By the way if you like Freakonomics I recommend Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely. Similar type of book but about irrational behaviour.

[justinfromga]

It's a great read and lacks the sarcastic nature of Moneyball.  I agree on Bent but one thing that is pointed out in other parts of the book is that age does matter.  The good thing about the Bent deal is right now it's just a loan.  I think he has another couple of seasons of being a top 10 forward so we'll see.

Statistics are the way to build a team going forward.  I hear it from segments of the population in all sports I follow: that you have to WATCH the game to know the truth.  It's a bunch of bull.  Knowing what is actually important in determining individual player ability and in winning games and then using that information instead of building a team based on perception is always the smart way to go.

[Forever Fulham]

This is fascinating stuff.  Bent might yet make a believer out me.  I just hope he's the SAME Darren Bent who amassed those statistics upon which the authors have premised their conclusions. 

[Ruiz11]

Interesting points made, particularly about improving worst starter. Just look at the impact Parker will have on CM, our problem position. Those hankering for the signing of Osvaldo have failed to understand that whilst a marquee signing would have been welcome, we particularly needed to strengthen in CM.

[leonffc]

I agree with the original post. Doesn't offer anything to a team other than goals (as I've said over and over). But what does a numbers game offer if we cant create the chances for him to convert?

[Bassey the warrior]

It's a great read and lacks the sarcastic nature of Moneyball.  I agree on Bent but one thing that is pointed out in other parts of the book is that age does matter.  The good thing about the Bent deal is right now it's just a loan.  I think he has another couple of seasons of being a top 10 forward so we'll see.

Statistics are the way to build a team going forward.  I hear it from segments of the population in all sports I follow: that you have to WATCH the game to know the truth.  It's a bunch of bull.  Knowing what is actually important in determining individual player ability and in winning games and then using that information instead of building a team based on perception is always the smart way to go.

I'm a believer in the value of stats, it's just that you need the right stats.

[Scrumpy]

I read the book on holiday. It was a bit heavy in places. But it did pretty-much prove that CFC should have signed Bent instead of Torres, which was mildly amusing.

Oh, and corners and free kicks are actually LESS likely to score goals than open play. This explains the recent trend to take short free kicks and short corners - apparently the English were the last to wake up to this fact.

Oh, and it is not statistically true that you concede more goals just after scoring yourself. There is no proof of this happening, just that supporters remember it happening more than other goals conceded.

Interesting book.

[akf]

Released in May and it has already been translated to American! 

http://www.amazon.com/The-Numbers-Game-Everything-Soccer/dp/0143124560/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1377396090&sr=8-1&keywords=the+numbers+game