37 points - will that be enough?

[JOND999]

there are 16 Premiership games left.  based on a simple methodology of assuming we lose to the top teams, beat the bottom teams and tie the mid-table teams, we would end up on 37 points.  will that keep us up?!?!?  how many times has 37 points been safe?  (can we even accomplish this?)

here is how that methodology/forecast would play out.  which games look more/less winnable that the forecast?

pts.
1  Swansea - away
1  Southampton - home
0  Man U - away
0  L'pool - home
3  W. Brom - away
0  Chelsea - home
3  Cardiff - away
1  Newcastle - home
0  Man City - away
0  Everton - home
1  Aston Villa - away
3  Norwich - home
0  Spurs - away
1  Hull - home
1  Stoke - away
3  Crystal Palace - home

that's 18 points plus our current 19 equals 37.
going to be interesting last 5 games - will likely be in the drop zone and have to get points in the final month, including possibly a do-or-die vs. Palace at the Cottage!!!

i could maybe see us drawing a spec of blood from Everton at home.  and maybe beating Hull at home (forgetting that last 6-0 drubbing)

would help a lot to beat Swansea coming up and S'hampton is struggling so could grab points there.  maybe take the full 3 vs. Villa. 

a lot of scenarios but this 37 point methodology is a good estimate, maybe even too rosy.

[OHfulhamfan]

I looked at the fixture list before the Sunderland game and came up with the exact same conclusions as you, except I had us beating Sunderland which would get us to exactly 40 points. If you look at previous year's tables there are plenty of season when 36 or 37 points was barely enough to stay up. When you project out like this it is highly unlikely you will get all the results right. I already missed Sunderland so now the team needs to get a win I didn't think they would.  A win a away at Swansea would be  great place to start.

[MJG]

I'm still of the thinking that 38 is required because of our GD and the way teams at the bottom get more pts 2nd half of the season historically.

[Enter the Frei]

Shows the importance of draws when you look at it in this way as well. We've only had one all season which is a bit odd really.

[JackyFulham90]

I think 35 will keep us up this year

[sumofallparts]

I agree, 35 should do it, maybe even 34. But around that mark and a lot less than usual because of the congested nature of the table.

[TheManOnTheBus]

Yes. The top flight has broken away and are getting overall many, many more points than usual. 35 should be enough.  But hey ho, we are aiming for 16 wins says Rene! That's another 48!

[DukeTyrion]

I think 35 will be the team that goes down, so given our goal difference I think we need 36 points.

Also, you need to take account of the teams that have things to play for in the last few games. For instance, I think Hull will be safe by the time we get to play them at home.

[hovewhite]

Think 37 may not be enough.the worst goal difference plus the most conceded is not good 38 possibly 39 maybe ,lack of draws for me is the problem as another 3 draws added to the 6 wins has been what's missing due to careless errors and losng the players focus from the off .
If you add to that a lot of the players not fit from the start of the PL season,its no wonder we are where we are.

[Jamie88]

I would have a guess to say it wouldn't be enough based on our goal difference. The bottom half of the table looks so tight this year that I would rather 40 was the number we landed on!
Also, I think we are going to have to beat a top side/pull off a surprise victory if we stand a chance of surviving..

[WolverineFFC]

Yes. The top flight has broken away and are getting overall many, many more points than usual. 35 should be enough.  But hey ho, we are aiming for 16 wins says Rene! That's another 48!

My thoughts too. With the top 7 places so highly contested, much more so than in previous seasons, I see less and less points gifted to the bottom half of the table from the top clubs.

I am thinking 35 or 36 points will keep a team up... just hope goal differential isn't going to come in to play.

[The Rock]

I looked at that and only came up with 12 points. Eeek. Hopefully with Brede and Burn staying healthy and we made a Jan transfer or two I think it would help.

[Forever Fulham]

Surely we can beat Hull?....  The odd thing about this scenario is that teams in the soup with us are likely thinking the same thing. "We must beat Fulham."  Won't that mean they will half kill themselves when playing FFC under the assumption we are one of the few teams they can  and therefore must beat?