Relegation Odds - a question

[Southcoastffc]

Can anyone more familiar than I am with betting odds please explain this apparently contradictary article to me?  It's at: http://news.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/football/premier-league/fulham-fight-premier-league-relegation-battle_187400.html

"Ladbrokes currently has the London club priced as the 1/3 favourites to go down this term But were it not for the concession of a late penalty against the Merseysiders last time out, Fulham would have headed into their next game off the back of two games without defeat in the division................................... And with new signings Lewis Holtby and Konstantinos Mitroglou boosting their attacking firepower during the January transfer window, the one statistic that should matter to punters is that Fulham are 9/4 to avoid the drop at Ladbrokes."

I'm puzzled.

[Admin]

I don't understand betting, never have done, but they are rarely wrong. If they were, there wouldn't be a business..

However, even when we sailed close to the mark last season, they were confident that we'd stay up, and we did.

In all betting, I think they use a whole bunch of statistics such as league position, form, goals for, against, and even look at new signings.   

[PokerMatt]

Not sure what the contradiction is, but:

1/3 favourites to go down. Means you get £1 winnings for every £3 put on.

While 9/4 to avoid the drop means, because it's less likely than the above, means you get £9 back for every £4 on.

It makes sense that being 1/3 to go down we'd have odds that make it less likely we'll stay up.

[nixie-ffc]

this post, written by me before the pool game, explains it a bit.

'i was actually gonna start a new thread about relegation odds but since we are talking about this here might as well carry on in this thread.

as it stands, after last night games, fulham is favourite to go down. here are the odds with explanations for those who are not familiar with this sort of thing. prices taken from betfair.

fulham to be relegated. current price 1.46 so if you believed fulham was gonna be relegated you will get back £4.60 profit for every £10 staked. so £10 x 1.46 = 14.60 but seeing as we are betting against fulham going down we will be laying £21.28 (risking £10) @1.47 and if fulham escaped relegation our profit would be as stated £21.28 for every £10 risked. dont forget you get back your stake as well so a payout of £31.28.

cardiff 1.83 to go down, palace 2.84, sunderland 2.84, norwich 2.60, wba 4.60, hammers 9.80, stoke 9.00, hull 8.00, villa 12.50, swansea 13.50, man united 600.00

also to keep things simple i left out the commission charges. so if you win betfair takes %5 of your profit..'

[cmg]

Not sure what the contradiction is, but:

1/3 favourites to go down. Means you get £1 winnings for every £3 put on.

While 9/4 to avoid the drop means, because it's less likely than the above, means you get £9 back for every £4 on.

It makes sense that being 1/3 to go down we'd have odds that make it less likely we'll stay up.

Yes.

Mathematically if we are 1/3 to go down we should be 3/1 to stay up rather than the 2.25/1 that Ladbrokes are offering - the threequarter point difference is Ladbroke's margin, ensuring that they make money whatever the result (provided they have a balanced book). That's how bookies operate. If they do their job properly (not always possible) they win whatever the result.

[Southcoastffc]

Not sure what the contradiction is, but:

1/3 favourites to go down. Means you get £1 winnings for every £3 put on.

While 9/4 to avoid the drop means, because it's less likely than the above, means you get £9 back for every £4 on.

It makes sense that being 1/3 to go down we'd have odds that make it less likely we'll stay up.

Yes.

Mathematically if we are 1/3 to go down we should be 3/1 to stay up rather than the 2.25/1 that Ladbrokes are offering - the threequarter point difference is Ladbroke's margin, ensuring that they make money whatever the result (provided they have a balanced book). That's how bookies operate. If they do their job properly (not always possible) they win whatever the result.

Ah right. Thank you.