Bottom half analysis for rest of the season. Tried to be realistic.

[jelmo]

West Ham United
Final Total: 43pts

    Manchester United (h) D
    Hull City (h) W
    Sunderland (a) D
    Liverpool (h) L
    Arsenal (a) L
    Crystal Palace (h) W
    West Brom (a) D
    Tottenham (h) W
    Manchester City (a) L

Aston Villa
Final Total: 43pts

    Stoke City (h) D
    Manchester United (a) L
    Fulham (h) D
    Crystal Palace (a) D
    Southampton (h) W
    Swansea City (a) L
    Manchester City (a) L
    Hull City (h) W
    Tottenham (a) L

Stoke City
Final Total: 50pts

    Aston Villa (a) D
    Hull City (h) W
    Chelsea (a) L
    Newcastle (h) W
    Cardiff City (a) W
    Tottenham (h) D
    Fulham (h) W
    West Brom (a) W

Hull City
Final Total: 36pts

    West Brom (h) W
    West Ham (a) L
    Stoke City (a) L
    Swansea (h) W
    Manchester United (a) L
    Arsenal (h) L
    Fulham (a) L
    Aston Villa (a) L
    Everton (h) L

Swansea City
Final Total: 37pts

    Everton (a) L
    Arsenal (a) L
    Norwich (h) W
    Hull (a) L
    Chelsea (h) L
    Newcastle United (a) L
    Aston Villa (h) W
    Southampton (h) D
    Sunderland (a) D

Norwich City
Current: 32pts

    Sunderland (h) L
    Swansea City (a) L
    West Brom (h) W
    Fulham (a) L
    Liverpool (h) L
    Manchester United (a) L
    Chelsea (a) L
    Arsenal (h) L

Crystal Palace
Final Total: 31pts

    Newcastle (a) D
    Chelsea (h) L
    Cardiff City (a) D
    Aston Villa (h) D
    West Ham (a) L
    Manchester City (h) L
    Everton (a) L
    Liverpool (h) L
    Fulham (a) L

West Bromwich Albion
Final Total: 30pts

    Hull City (a) L
    Cardiff (h) D
    Norwich City (a) L
    Tottenham (h) L
    Manchester City (a) L
    West Ham (h) D
    Arsenal (a) L
    Sunderland (a) L
    Stoke City (h) L

Cardiff City
Final total: 27pts

    Liverpool (h) L
    West Brom (a) D
    Crystal Palace (h) D
    Southampton (a) L
    Stoke City (h) L
    Sunderland (a) L
    Newcastle (a) L
    Chelsea (h) L

Sunderland
Final Total: 39pts

    Norwich City (a) W
    Liverpool (a) L
    West Ham (h) D
    Tottenham (a) L
    Everton (h) W
    Chelsea (a) L
    Cardiff (h) W
    Manchester City (a) L
    West Brom (h) W
    Manchester United (a) L
    Swansea City (h) D

Fulham
Final Total: 35pts

    Manchester City (a) L (We cant realistically expect anything out of this)
    Everton (h) D (beat them at home earlier in the season in Carling Cup. Not a bad record against them at home)
    Aston Villa (a) D (3000 fans willing the team on. Potential for a draw)
    Norwich City (h) W (Great record against them at home. More of the same)
    Tottenham (a) L (Cant really expect too much even considering how bad they are at the moment)
    Hull City (h) W (We can beat them at home)
    Stoke City (a) L (Stoke are playing well so need to hope that they have nothing to play for at this point)
    Crystal Palace (h) W (beat them 4-1 earlier in season. Hopefully that sticks in both sets of players minds)

[jelmo]

So that means:

10th
Stoke City
Final Total: 50pts
11th
West Ham United
Final Total: 43pts
12th
Aston Villa
Final Total: 43pts
13th
Sunderland
Final Total: 39pts
14th
Swansea City
Final Total: 37pts
15th
Hull City
Current: 36pts
16th
Fulham
Final Total: 35pts
17th
Norwich City
Current: 32pts
18th
Crystal Palace
Final Total: 31pts
19th
West Bromwich Albion
Final Total: 30pts
20th
Cardiff City
Final total: 27pts

[TheManOnTheBus]

I'll take that!

But then our last game is really a six pointer. Palace wins we go down. Draw would be good enough if we were at 32 and them at 30 going into it.

[jelmo]

True. Need to hope that we get an extra point from somewhere else. i think I have been pessimistic enough to allow for an extra draw or win. Eg - Might get something at Stoke or Spurs.

[ChesterTheTabby]

Realistic total and a similar prediction to what I believe will happen...however, I think a draw or possibly a win at Stoke and a draw or win at Spurs. Call me a dreamer, but it's all possible. Hell, a 1-0 or 2-1 win at City is possible. This is Fulham we are talking about, anything is possible.

[glenhodgso]

good analysis, thank you.  My only comment is that this shows Palace, Cardiff and West Brom not getting any wins for the rest of the season, and that I think is highly unlikely - this weekend alone threw some surprises  -  but my guesses won't / can't be better than your analysis, so I hope you are right....

049:gif

[HatterDon]

as my fellow Texan -- who reads but no longer posts here -- has pointed out, the problem with writing off Norwich is that they have the ability to play for the 0-0 and actually get it. They have shut out some quality sides this season, and Saturday was our first clean sheet since when? November? That ability to grind out a point by shutting down the flow of the game is something we had under Roy but haven't had a trace of these past three seasons. Norwich can do it; that's why I'm doubting that they'll go down this season -- after I was convinced by the SMART San Antonio Fulham supporter.

[The Rock]

That I think is unrealistic. Norwich will get more than 3 points here on in. So will Palace. WBA will get more than 2 points. We will lose to Everton. No way will Stoke get to 50 points.

I've done the same and can see u get to 34-35 points, but see that as 18-19th or so and gong down.

[The Rock]

That I think is unrealistic. Norwich will get more than 3 points here on in. So will Palace. WBA will get more than 2 points. We will lose to Everton. No way will Stoke get to 50 points.

I've done the same and can see us get to 34-35 points, but see that as 18-19th or so and gong down. Would be really surprised to see us get any more than 4 wins - we've only won 7 in 30 games!

[DevonFFC]

I think A huge thing for huge is to look to start scoring goals and lots of them. Go for blood and jol matches off early and try to reduce that goal difference as there are some big scoring teams up top with man city, Chelsea and shitterpool who can realistically tink teams. I jjsy prey it doesn't come to goal difference

[nose]

i have doen the same loads of times on the mustard predictor....  i come up with a variety of finishes not all good but the one I like best is the one where we manage an unlikely win at spurs or Villa and survive at stoke,,,  so i am going to buy my stoke ticket the minute it is available!

[jelmo]

That I think is unrealistic. Norwich will get more than 3 points here on in. So will Palace. WBA will get more than 2 points. We will lose to Everton. No way will Stoke get to 50 points.

I've done the same and can see u get to 34-35 points, but see that as 18-19th or so and gong down.

Well its just my personal predictions. In reality it will not be accurate. I think our points total will be what i said though

[DJinNJ]

as my fellow Texan -- who reads but no longer posts here -- has pointed out, the problem with writing off Norwich is that they have the ability to play for the 0-0 and actually get it. They have shut out some quality sides this season, and Saturday was our first clean sheet since when? November? That ability to grind out a point by shutting down the flow of the game is something we had under Roy but haven't had a trace of these past three seasons. Norwich can do it; that's why I'm doubting that they'll go down this season -- after I was convinced by the SMART San Antonio Fulham supporter.

At the same time, they can collapse and lose big as well. They have the third worst goals allowed and third worst goal differential and they've allowed four goals in each of their last two away games. I think we could actually catch them on GD if we beat them by a few, and they lost 3-0 at the Cottage in the cup and 5-0 last season, hard as it is to believe. And if Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool have anything to play for I don't think they'll be able to hold out and could end up losing big. They lost those reverse fixtures 1-3, 4-1, and 5-1 respectively. Then again, they lost 7-0 to Man City but managed a 0-0 draw at home, so you never know. Man Utd is a different story of course, and they may not even want to qualify for the Europa League, but a win at Old Trafford is still unlikely. But even if they scrape a couple of surprise draws (and you could argue that psychologically it's harder to play that way week after week rather than having some morale boosting winnable games in between), that's only two points from the last four games. Their season really relies on the next four games. If they don't get 5 or 6 points from those I think they're in serious trouble, whether we're one of the teams to benefit or not.

[FortCollinsFulham]

I think our goal differential is still a very important thing some people don't seem to recognize. It's basically another point for any team we're battling for position. Save maybe Cardiff if we go on a good scoring run.

[aaronmcguigan]

Cardiff play Southampton, Newcastle Sunderland and Stoke.

Going by your calculations these 4 will have nothing to play for/ be well safe, and could trip up with less motivation against a team like cardiff

Conversely, Sunderland have games in hand, but they have less time to play these games and could suffer from burn out. Games in hand dont mean points in the bag.

Youve also put WBA in freefall, but they won their last match and their next 3 are Hull cardiff and norwich.

Theres also nothing to suggest Stoke will be unbeaten in 7 of last 8 games

Form and motivation will come into this, we seem to have gone into fight mode and prep for a dogfight whereas the others play very nervously looking over their shoulders,. This obviously could change week on week, going by how points and goal difference changes.

[Logicalman]

What the analysis shows (and well done btw) is that we still have a mathematical chance of survival, and that's good enough for me, forget the actual details themselves, I still remain optimistic and will do until the singing stops.

[Deanothefulhamfan]

The singing stopped at Cardiff, did you not get the memo?

I admire the optimism but I can't share it despite our win at the weekend, too much to do imo.

I think I was the only optimistic person when I saw the lineup at the weekend, and it worked out just fine, maybe I need to try this optimistic approach on a more regular basis haha

[jelmo]

What the analysis shows (and well done btw) is that we still have a mathematical chance of survival, and that's good enough for me, forget the actual details themselves, I still remain optimistic and will do until the singing stops.

Haha. yep, maybe I just did the analysis as I way of tricking my brain into thinking we are going to survive relegation. it helped until I saw some of the comments! E.g - I suppose it is unlikely that some of the teams I put as going into free fall will not win another game this season. Wishful thinking!

However, we do have the best run in so we have hope if the players take the confidence from Saturday's game & don't get spanked too badly by City. I know that they have no Kompany but their midfield is ridiculous.

[TonyGilroy]

As I see it winning all four home games is the minimum necessary. 36 points with our GD would be unlikely to be enough. Add a few away points and it's job done.

It'a actually all very doable if only we weren't so bad but if we could beat Everton I'll start to think it just might be on.

[MJG]

I still think with our GD that 38 has to be the target.
Get a win against Everton and we would be in with a chance.