Your Premier League, and Championship opinions wanted

[Fulham Joe]

Each year I like to try and do a rather ambitious football bet, that is, I like to try and do doubles and trebles on the league handicaps.
Basically, about a week or two before the season starts, all the big bookmaking firms will handicap each team based on their view of how they performed last year, and who they've bought or sold this year.
The odds of getting the Premier league handicap winner are about 16/1 and the odds of getting the Championship handicap winner are about 18/1 so a £1 double will pay you about £283.00.
I do a perm of five teams or six teams in each division, so that means if I pick five teams in each division, the bet will cost me £25.00, and if I do six it will cost me £36.00, but the rewards are reasonable and it gives me a lot of interest throughout the season.

So here's where you guys come in, I know there are people on here who are very knowledgable, so I was wondering if you might want to help point me in the right direction?
I think Fulham will have no chance in the handicap as they will be considered quite strong contenders and there must surely be a few teams who we will have to give about a 30 point start to, who will finish closer to us than that. I think Liverpool will struggle to do as well as they did last year, and I've got my views on quite a few other teams, but I was wondering what you guys think?
Who do you think is likely to do a lot better or worse this season than they did last season?

[Fulham Joe]

In the Premier league, if the teams who were in it last season performed the same again this time, Everton and Liverpool would share the title on 98 points, seven points ahead of Crystal Palace who would finish 3rd on 91 points. Manchester United would finish bottom on 72 points.

[Deanothefulhamfan]

Leicester play very good football, and will surprise a lot of teams next season. Them plus 42 is massive imo.... Arsenal will be very close this season, so them plus 8 could be interesting as well

As for the championship I expect Sheff weds to be in the top half and them plus 22 is probably an interesting bet..... I actually think Fulham plus 3 is the best bet, but I think we will win the league

[Fulham Joe]

Thanks for that Deano, but remember Fulham pus three means they still need to finish 19 points above Sheff Wed and even further ahead of some of the others, so let's hope Fulham can do as well as you think.
Much appreciate your thoughts, thank you.

[dannyboi-ffc]

If Ive got this right does that mean the plus 20 for example means the team gets a 20point head start?

In that case I think palace are a decent bet, obviously dark horses but judging from their form last year and if pulis stays I think theres an outside chance they could make 45/46 points. Add that to the plus 46 they have, thats 90 points if they reach 44points. Its not often the champions gets over 90 and the leagues getting tighter. Cant see a team running away with it.

Spurs at plus 20 are a good shout, they have a very good manager and even without a great window so far, you'd imagine they will get 70 anyway. Everton plus 26 aint bad, man utd plus 8 will be tight but less of a risk than the teams below everton and my fifth would be arsenal or liverpool. Im tempted by newcastle but they would need to be around 60 to be a winner and I think even with the good signings that will be a lot to ask.

So in summary id go for palace, spurs, everton, man utd and probably arsenal. Wild card would be newcastle and I wouldnt go anywhere near southampton,  hull, villa or man city at just plus two. Anything could happen for city to lose by 3 points. The rest I think are too short. Hope this helps

[dannyboi-ffc]

If Ive got this right does that mean the plus 20 for example means the team gets a 20point head start?

In that case I think palace are a decent bet, obviously dark horses but judging from their form last year and if pulis stays I think theres an outside chance they could make 45/46 points. Add that to the plus 46 they have, thats 90 points if they reach 44points. Its not often the champions gets over 90 and the leagues getting tighter. Cant see a team running away with it.

Spurs at plus 20 are a good shout, they have a very good manager and even without a great window so far, you'd imagine they will get 70 anyway. Everton plus 26 aint bad, man utd plus 8 will be tight but less of a risk than the teams below everton and my fifth would be arsenal or liverpool. Im tempted by newcastle but they would need to be around 60 to be a winner and I think even with the good signings that will be a lot to ask.

So in summary id go for palace, spurs, everton, man utd and probably arsenal. Wild card would be newcastle and I wouldnt go anywhere near southampton,  hull, villa or man city at just plus two. Anything could happen for city to lose by 3 points. The rest I think are too short. Hope this helps

Now for the championship. Off the top of my head i think normally the winner gets again around 90, not many push on to 100 like we did, the last playoff scrap is normally around 70. Last year brighton got 69. Qpr only got 76 and finished 4th I think, so that goes to show you the handicaps are a bit pointless in the championship and the extra games means the league winners will stretch the points the bottom half teams will need to get.

Looking at the handicaps the bookies believe its gonna be a very tight league, their not being very generous. My advice with the championship will be just pick the winner and not rely on the handicap points. So id limit that to fulham, wigan, derby, norwich and cardiff. Hope that makes sense.

[MayoDomo]

I think Ipswich in a close race are a good shot, as I think they will make play-offs. I agree with Danny that the bookies aren't being too kind with the handicaps, so I'd limit the bets to teams that you think will do well even without them. (Fulham, Forest, Norwich.)

As for the PL, I'd take Spurs or Arsenal.