Championship Averages

[FPT]

So today I thought that I would calculate the average goals scored, goals conceded and points for the teams that have finished as Champions, as runners up and as the last team in the play off positions... Here's what it came up with.

Champions:
Average goals scored: 82
Average goals conceded: 42
Average points: 92

No team has finished first scoring less than 69 goals.
No team has finished first conceding more than 55 goals.
No team has finished first with less than 81 points.


Runners up:
Average goals scored: 75
Average goals conceded: 46
Average points: 96

No team has finished second scoring less than 54 goals.
No team has finished second conceding more than 58 goals.
No team has finished second with less than 79 points.


6th place:
Average goals scored: 67
Average goals conceded: 51
Average points: 73

No team has finished sixth scoring less than 55 goals.
No team has finished sixth conceding more than 58 goals.
No team has finished sixth with less than 68 points.


And to compare that with Fulham's 2014-15 season:
Goals scored: 62.
Goals conceded: 83.
Points: 52.

So to match the average required to finish sixth in this division, we need to score 5 more goals than we did last season, concede 32 less and grab 23 more points.


Of course these are only averages and there has been some clear anomalies through the 10 years of the 'Championship.' Here's one for example, Fulham scored more last season with their 62, than 2012-13 runners up Hull.

You may not find this relevant, interesting or meaningful, but I see it as a good indicator of improvement required and a target to aim for. You can then take into account the goals and assists we've lost over the summer, Hugo Rodallega contributed to 18 goals last season, Bryan Ruiz contributed to 7 and there's also the 5 goals from Tim Hoogland's early season spurt. The new midfield signings scored at, Tom Cairney with 8 (3 goals and 5 assists), Jamie O'Hara with 10 (2 goals and 8 assists) and Ben Pringle with 10 (3 goals and 7 assists).

So new midfield = 28 goals.
Ruiz, Rodallega and Hoogland = 30 goals.

This is an incredibly basic way of looking at numbers and football, but hey, I find it reasonably interesting.

[MJG]

FPT I've done this in the past and it's quite scary how many points a team needs.
I look at this way,  we need 73 pts on average to get sixth.

We now need 72 pts from 44 games to reach that. Now to get that you would average enough to have 75 pts over 46 games.

So already for the next 44 games we have to play as the 5th or better team on average to just reach 73 pts.

If that all makes sense  :-)

[General]

sometimes it helps having things simplified and put to you in honest manner like this - that said, it's clear we're lacking as I stated in a previous post:- Management and tactics and our obvious inability to sign the right quality of player has made up an average championship team and the reality is with FFP it doesn't look like we'll push that high up very quickly unless we had seriously invested our parachute payments in to solid players across the park then with a small ground we will struggle to make moves upwards.

[FPT]

Ah I do apologise MJG, I do recall seeing something similar but that was right in the back of my head, I didn't know where or who from. Always useful to have things like this bumped up though.

It's super scary to see the amount of improvement and work that we need to do. Then again, this is a division of momentum, you go on a run and you very quickly seem unbeatable. I do feel it'll take a minor miracle though to sit in that sixth place (at least) come the end of the season.

[Nero]

so basically we need to stop conceding a goal every game and do it every other, should be easy enough with a bit of coaching and organization

[MJG]

No I wasn't saying don't do it,  I think it's good to lay it out again what's required and what the targets should he.
Last year's top six totals were a bit freaky when you look back over last 13 years.

It's why we can't afford to play catch-up,  Bournemouth almost had a miracle last year from where they were after seven games.
Last season after ten games six of the top eight were still there at the end of the season.
That's why I feel we need 16 pts at the international break,  might get away with 14,  but less than that I'd bet against us doing it.

[McBride78]

Moral of the story is we need points now, cant dig a hole and then play catch up. 

[FPT]

Moral of the story is we need points now, cant dig a hole and then play catch up. 

Absolutely. MJG's stats are scary; because although it may feel like you can afford to have a dip with the amount of games in this division, you can't. The idea of having to be the 5th best team from now until the end of the season to reach the average points tally is daunting - especially as we could so easily have had 5 points more, 3 at the least had Ross scored at Cardiff and we not conceded the penalty against Brighton.