Playoff Points Target ***Updated***

[MJG]

Currently 6th place is looking like 76 points, the average is 73.

With this in mind and with 29 games left, for us to reach 76 points we need to do one of the following:

[gerrys]

OK so the plan is to win half ofthem and then it all depends how many draws we can make...

[rubbernecca]

Thanks MJG, that clearly shows the urgency of the situation

[MJG]

OK so the plan is to win half ofthem and then it all depends how many draws we can make...

Pretty much that's about it. Need to be one of the top 3/4 teams for rest of season.

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[Baszab]

put like that - depressing

[Fulham Tup North]

Or 29 wins and we take the title?  :)

[Baszab]

We could win half our remaining games - but surely too inconsistent to hold for only 4/5 more losses ?

[Brawn]

"Time will tell. It always does." - The Seventh Doctor.

[HatterDon]

Frankly, while we have a club that -- arguably -- has enough talent to get us promoted out of the Championship, our roster now would have to be hugely overhauled should we actually achieve promotion.

That would mean that we would experience our third CONSECUTIVE massive turnover in our first team squad. Instability would become our new norm. At the end of the most recent transfer period, I said that our acquisitions would allow us to achieve top half stability and form the nucleus of a SERIOUS promotion charge in 2016-17. I still think that's the smartest thing for us to do -- and I think that's the actual plan of our front office. Telling the supporters to suck it up and expect another full season in the Championship is not what any front office wants to do, so we say that we're going for promotion now -- even though that might be a disaster for us.

For my money, if we do get promoted this season, we'll spend one season in the Prem and most likely finish last. Another season in the Championship, on the other hand, would reinforce the weaknesses in the squad and -- as a result -- fewer of them would need to be replaced before a return to the Premier League. Remember what happened when Derby County got promoted to the Prem in season two of their 5-season plan. They went straight down and haven't yet made it back.

[fcfulham55]

Good topic, makes things clear for promotion chasing teams.


But what about us, how many points to stay up?

A push towards top of the bottom half if we're lucky, we'll fall short of a good 15-20 points off the playoffs.

[MJG]

Good topic, makes things clear for promotion chasing teams.


But what about us, how many points to stay up?

A push towards top of the bottom half if we're lucky, we'll fall short of a good 15-20 points off the playoffs.

For those worried by relegation 21st place is looking at the moment to be 41 points. Now thats not going to happen because just as top sides lose points in the second half of the season, bottom clubs gain more, so for the championship you should always be looking at 48-50 points to stay up.

[MJG]

Oddly we have gained ground on the teams above while dropping a place and now the a week later the target is 73 pts to be 6th

[Neil D]

Thought-provoking post, MJG.  Sadly, they are not good thoughts.  Is next season the last of the parachute payments - about £8m?  I can't remember.  Anyway, it looks as though we will have to sell Dembele in January rather than let him go for free in the summer.  At least, the £6-8m (?) that will generate will give the new manager some money to spend in the summer.  Pity Dembele's not English - that would generate a healthy premium.

[MJG]

Thought-provoking post, MJG.  Sadly, they are not good thoughts.  Is next season the last of the parachute payments - about £8m?  I can't remember.  Anyway, it looks as though we will have to sell Dembele in January rather than let him go for free in the summer.  At least, the £6-8m (?) that will generate will give the new manager some money to spend in the summer.  Pity Dembele's not English - that would generate a healthy premium.

two more years of Parachutes £9m each

[Neil D]

Thought-provoking post, MJG.  Sadly, they are not good thoughts.  Is next season the last of the parachute payments - about £8m?  I can't remember.  Anyway, it looks as though we will have to sell Dembele in January rather than let him go for free in the summer.  At least, the £6-8m (?) that will generate will give the new manager some money to spend in the summer.  Pity Dembele's not English - that would generate a healthy premium.

two more years of Parachutes £9m each

Thanks for the clarification.  That's better than I thought.

[MJG]

As we continue to not really get any points, those teams around 6th place have also stalled and this is the current target for us.

[Neil D]

No-one can fault your optimism, MJG...

[Denver Fulham]

As we continue to not really get any points, those teams around 6th place have also stalled and this is the current target for us.

Five teams are well ahead of everyone else. If that holds, and you effectively have one place for 5-6 teams, someone will get hot. I'd be pretty surprised if 71 points was enough for sixth place at the end.

[MJG]

As we continue to not really get any points, those teams around 6th place have also stalled and this is the current target for us.

Five teams are well ahead of everyone else. If that holds, and you effectively have one place for 5-6 teams, someone will get hot. I'd be pretty surprised if 71 points was enough for sixth place at the end.

its a moving target, but the average is 73 and so its not far from what's required. Also teams at top usually get less points second half of the season as well.
I'll expect 75 to be 6th place in the end.

[MJG]

No-one can fault your optimism, MJG...

I'd not say I'm optimistic just putting it there for people to understand what's required at the moment.