Men on posts at corners

[nose]

If we read the guardian sat of 0.32 to 0.38 goals per game... and if you will indulge for ease of arithmetic to call it 0.333 goals per premiership game from corners THEN  that means on average 1 goal is scored from a corner every three games. Some teams better, some worse clearly.
But what would make for a more valuable analysis is what is the average number of corners per game.
If you take every other situation, long shots, crosses from the touch line, crosses from further back, free kicks, throw ins etc... then i suspect 1 goal every three games is probably fair return for that type of set piece. And because it is a set piece, it can be practiced. and because the attacking side has the advantage of knowing what they are trying to do it should be possible to improve the goals to effort strike rate.

The headline was reference to men on posts and IMO it seems that from this type of deadball situation, reducing the free goal space available for the attackers, must put them under pressure to hit a smaller space. I always think it therefore to have players on the posts, the number of goals we see that wouldn't have happened if there would be such a player seems to prove that.

My biggest gripe about corners though is the player taking the kick should and must eb able to get the ball into the danger area and cause confusion among the defence 75+% of the time. The last few games at fulham it was none of the time

[MJG]

10.3 corners per game this year in the PL

[toshes mate]

Go to to 1:42 and short chat about corners covering much on here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08k2cvt

That is a fascinating listen, MJG, and kind of paints a very different picture about set piece philosophy at clubs especially around corners and direct free kicks.  I loved the bit where it is said that most PL players given a shot at goal by not using a solid wall when the range is twenty five metres plus but simply marking each post with two men is unbelievable except when you think about what a mess most players make of dead ball shots (including penalties at Fulham)....  really interesting little debate.

[nose]

10.3 corners per game this year in the PL

I guessed 10 to 12 per game. My son asked me about the stats of corners about a year ago and he new virtually everything from the relevant web sites. His point was do not get so excited you aren't likely to score. But the truth is most attempts fail.

If its 10 corners per game and a goal is scored on average once every three games then its' one goal per thirty corners . Which is pretty much what i guessed when he asked me andwhat your articles support. I think that is a good return.

What is wrong at fulham is I suspect we are way off that and from wat we see the delivery is generally poor. But i do not have data to back it up, maybe we are average.

[Andy S]

This is the problem with stats and averages some are much higher than average and some are a lot lower. If you only looked at teams in the top two in each league their averages would probably be a lot higher and if they weren't their average in another aspect of their game would be. I really don't know why we bother using averages. I remember when my son was young and I was teaching him about averages. We were on the underground and we worked out the average time the doors stayed open when a train was in the station. On average on our journey the doors stayed open for 18 secs in reality they never staye open at any station for 18 secs but stayed open for 11 secs 4 times. So average is crap

[nose]

This is the problem with stats and averages some are much higher than average and some are a lot lower. If you only looked at teams in the top two in each league their averages would probably be a lot higher and if they weren't their average in another aspect of their game would be. I really don't know why we bother using averages. I remember when my son was young and I was teaching him about averages. We were on the underground and we worked out the average time the doors stayed open when a train was in the station. On average on our journey the doors stayed open for 18 secs in reality they never staye open at any station for 18 secs but stayed open for 11 secs 4 times. So average is crap

run that by me again
if the average time they stayed open is 18s But they always closed in 11s or under, the average time they stay open is 11s or less.
but a true arithmetic average is just that, the average. it's what you do with the information that counts.

[toshes mate]

Averages become very interesting when you start doing calculus and distribution analysis since the more data you collect the more the averages get closer to what really happens.  Hence an average based upon two samples is going to be wildly inaccurate but an average based upon hundreds of samples or more is going to be rather more accurate than you think.  However in football it is the moments that defy the average that we love the most (at least, on average, and we hope, more than half the time).

[nose]

Averages become very interesting when you start doing calculus and distribution analysis since the more data you collect the more the averages get closer to what really happens.  Hence an average based upon two samples is going to be wildly inaccurate but an average based upon hundreds of samples or more is going to be rather more accurate than you think.  However in football it is the moments that defy the average that we love the most (at least, on average, and we hope, more than half the time).

calculus and distribution analysis is difficult, well it was for me when in the realms of properly advanced maths as I am sure you well know. I think you have just used those terms to cause0 a cold sweat.
What is clear is most people have no idea how to comprehend a simple piece of statistical data and evaluate whether it is relevant and/or meaningful.

it may be only 1 goal is scored every three games from a corner, that doesn't mean the next three coreners will not all lead to goals, or if you got one already today you can't get another.

What concerns me more is Fulham's delivery into the box at corners seems terribly poor in comparison with other teams and thus cuts down our chances. And in the end that is what counts. At the other end, whe defending i think we do quite well but if we had players on the posts I would feel a little more secure.

[toshes mate]

I still get cold sweats and there are still parts of seemingly fairly basic maths that continue to prove my inability and failure to grasp the simple.  Mental blocks curse us all sometime or other.  Apparently the contemporary percentage idea of a corner is to not lose possession, hence if the first defender heads out the ball is likely to fall to an opponent.  When defending the player on or near the near post area is supposed to disrupt the play sufficiently to allow defenders to come out and attackers to be offside, or to get the ball to a team mate in a counter attacking role.  It seems there is a constant argument among coaches about out-swinging or in-swinging corners being better from a goal scoring point of view with a little dismay about missing the likes of a Beckham character and dead ball attacking situations.