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2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed

Started by MJG, August 27, 2017, 08:33:03 PM

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MJG

Just the views of a long term fan

Twig

Quote from: MJG on March 31, 2018, 07:52:03 PM
This run is mental



I agree but I can't make out the charts Mike.  Could you clarify what they are showing please?

MJG

Quote from: Twig on March 31, 2018, 09:56:46 PM
Quote from: MJG on March 31, 2018, 07:52:03 PM
This run is mental



I agree but I can't make out the charts Mike.  Could you clarify what they are showing please?
They are the match timelines which show Expected Goals data based on the actual chances teams make and the average goals they should score.
So yesterday we won 2-0 and on average our chances were worth 1.1 goals.
An easy way to look at it is how the graphs compare between the two teams and it shows chances made. First half was full yesterday chance wise, Hutchinson second half both teams improved.
Just the views of a long term fan


WokinghamWhite

At this point it might be interesting to consider how teams in the playoffs have done. Here's the number of times that clubs have been promoted from the second tier based on league position at the end of the season since the playoff system was introduced:

3rd - 10 (34%)
4th - 7 (24%)
5th - 7 (24%)
6th - 5 (17%)

A slight but definite advantage to being 3rd. But more importantly, it feels like we now have a lot more guile about how to grind out results than we did last season.

S.F.Sorrow

When we were in the playoffs last season I read an article somewhere (probably linked from this forum) about different statistics in relation to which playoff team was promoted. Stuff like "does a team on a late run of form have better chances in the playoffs" etc.

If I remember correctly the thing that made the most significant difference was a huge (statistical) advantage to any team that had also been in the playoffs the previous season. Which is excellent news for us of course!!!  :003:

MJG

We have the projected points for 6th place for first time this season.

Just the views of a long term fan


MJG

Quote from: S.F.Sorrow on April 01, 2018, 10:54:01 AM
When we were in the playoffs last season I read an article somewhere (probably linked from this forum) about different statistics in relation to which playoff team was promoted. Stuff like "does a team on a late run of form have better chances in the playoffs" etc.

If I remember correctly the thing that made the most significant difference was a huge (statistical) advantage to any team that had also been in the playoffs the previous season. Which is excellent news for us of course!!!  :003:
Here is a quote that looked at  playoffs over 15 year period and his conclusion:

"So, based on this analysis of 15 years of data of teams in play-off spots in the second and third tiers of English football, I cannot claim that a team's form in its last one, six, or 12 games affects its chances of advancing to the final or being promoted. However, I can claim that teams with more points or at a higher position in the table are more likely to advance to the final (but I cannot claim that they are more likely to win in the final). Not exactly ground-breaking, I know."
Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Does a teams form mean they make the final?
Over last 25 seasons of the 29 teams that had the best (or equal best) form of the 4 teams in the P/O's from 1st April (usually 7-9 games) onwards 13 made the final (10 winning).
Just the views of a long term fan

Twig

Haha, I think we need to stop agonising and go with the flow. 


Riversider

First time I've ever looked at this thread, and it will probably be the last , chill out, enjoy the moment, as the post above says, certain people are looking far too deep in to what is basically a simple game,
I say this to MJG and others, "Do historic stats have any relevance, yes or no ?"
I'm guessing that you are going to answer yes or otherwise you wouldn't continue to waste so much time,
So in that case I'll give you some relevant stats ,
Fulham have never won a meaningful trophy in their entire history, (potentially the longest run of failure in football)
Fulham have never won a play off game,
Now they are two powerful stats and the only two that matter right now, this great Club of ours has had a losing mentality for over 100 years, Jokanovic suddenly needs to find a way to break that curse that hangs over us over the course of the next two months , if he can't then all the other posts on this thread are irrelevant,
So relax, enjoy tonight, forget about historic data for 5th and 6th place, let's enjoy the moment and we'll worry about 3 big games in May when we get there. ⚽️🏆🍾🍻

MJG

Reached Final
3rd: 64%
4th: 48%
5th: 52%
6th: 36%

Won Final:
3rd: 50%
4th: 43%
5th: 62%
6th: 45%

Results
3v4 P8 W5 62%
3v5 P8 W3 37%
4v6 P4 W2 50%
5v6 P5 W3 60%
Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Quote from: Riversider on April 03, 2018, 10:24:23 AM
First time I've ever looked at this thread, and it will probably be the last , chill out, enjoy the moment, as the post above says, certain people are looking far too deep in to what is basically a simple game,
I say this to MJG and others, "Do historic stats have any relevance, yes or no ?"
I'm guessing that you are going to answer yes or otherwise you wouldn't continue to waste so much time,
So in that case I'll give you some relevant stats ,
Fulham have never won a meaningful trophy in their entire history, (potentially the longest run of failure in football)
Fulham have never won a play off game,
Now they are two powerful stats and the only two that matter right now, this great Club of ours has had a losing mentality for over 100 years, Jokanovic suddenly needs to find a way to break that curse that hangs over us over the course of the next two months , if he can't then all the other posts on this thread are irrelevant,
So relax, enjoy tonight, forget about historic data for 5th and 6th place, let's enjoy the moment and we'll worry about 3 big games in May when we get there. ⚽️🏆🍾🍻
I'm happy for you not to read this thread again (and of course you wont read this as you are not going to look again).
Stats have a relevance and historic ones do help interpret what should happen with a degree of error and just common sense as well.
Its just talking points for some and those who like this thread come back and those who dont should ignore it.
Just the views of a long term fan


RaySmith

I appreciate all the work MJG does, without being totally beholden to stats.

But  stats - seeing  what's happened in the past -  are useful in getting an idea of  what's likely to happen.
Though we all know that football is a 'funny old game', especially where Fulham is concerned, and anything mathematically possible could happen.

Anyway, these latest stats seem  to provide optimism for us Fulham fans if we keep our good form up - apart from that making it possible to overtake Cardiff, if they collapse.

But one game at a time, is what I, like Slavisa and the team,  try to focus on.

Thanks To MJG for his hard work in providing this information, anyway - those not interested don't need to  read this thread.

Lighthouse

After 5 games Cardiff had nine points on us already. Considering their recent form and how well their results have gone. The fact we are still about the same gap behind them even with our poor start to the season. Says an awful lot about our record run. It also shows they have been far more consistent throughout the season.
The above IS NOT A LEGAL DOCUMENT. It is an opinion.

We may yet hear the horse talk.

I can stand my own despair but not others hope

Southcoastffc

Quote from: MJG on April 03, 2018, 11:05:13 AM
Quote from: Riversider on April 03, 2018, 10:24:23 AM
First time I've ever looked at this thread, and it will probably be the last , chill out, enjoy the moment, as the post above says, certain people are looking far too deep in to what is basically a simple game,
I say this to MJG and others, "Do historic stats have any relevance, yes or no ?"
I'm guessing that you are going to answer yes or otherwise you wouldn't continue to waste so much time,
So in that case I'll give you some relevant stats ,
Fulham have never won a meaningful trophy in their entire history, (potentially the longest run of failure in football)
Fulham have never won a play off game,
Now they are two powerful stats and the only two that matter right now, this great Club of ours has had a losing mentality for over 100 years, Jokanovic suddenly needs to find a way to break that curse that hangs over us over the course of the next two months , if he can't then all the other posts on this thread are irrelevant,
So relax, enjoy tonight, forget about historic data for 5th and 6th place, let's enjoy the moment and we'll worry about 3 big games in May when we get there. ⚽️🏆🍾🍻
I'm happy for you not to read this thread again (and of course you wont read this as you are not going to look again).
Stats have a relevance and historic ones do help interpret what should happen with a degree of error and just common sense as well.
Its just talking points for some and those who like this thread come back and those who dont should ignore it.
I for one very much appreciate this thread and the amount of work that you've put into it.   Numbers tell a story, and this story is an interesting one.
The world is made up of electrons, protons, neurons, possibly muons and, definitely, morons.


MJG

Quote from: Lighthouse on April 03, 2018, 11:12:10 AM
After 5 games Cardiff had nine points on us already. Considering their recent form and how well their results have gone. The fact we are still about the same gap behind them even with our poor start to the season. Says an awful lot about our record run. It also shows they have been far more consistent throughout the season.
They have never been out the top 4 and only out the top 2 for 14 of their 39 games. Dislike them as we do they deserve to be where they are.
Just the views of a long term fan

Twig

I love this thread, I just think we are in danger of getting a bit obsessed at the moment. It's understandable but it shouldn't prevent us relaxing and enjoying the ride while it lasts.

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan


MJG

Cardiff chase down

Biggest gap was 18 points at game 22 and smallest was 4 at game 30

Just the views of a long term fan

Twig

Quote from: MJG on April 04, 2018, 07:57:52 AM
Cardiff chase down

Biggest gap was 18 points at game 22 and smallest was 4 at game 30



Automatic promotion or not this table shows how far we have come in chasing Cardiff down.  We can lament the slow start to the season all we like but it's history.  This recent run and the attempt to chase down Cardiff has been nothing less than magnificent.

PS Mike how about an additional row below Cardiff showing the points difference for ease of interpretation?