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Stats are all well and good...

Started by colinwhite, December 16, 2018, 10:17:09 AM

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colinwhite

 Yesterdays defensive lapses were bitterly disappointing. Of course the team didnt put their  chances away ,and if we had done would possibly have won the match ,but for me the root of our current state of chaos comes from an obsession within the club ,which we have all bought into ,to buy defenders who first and foremost  are good with the ball.
Last seasons football  is clearly a thing of the past. But the team still seems to believe that we can turn over teams like West ham ,that we are better than them and the key to success is to be offensive and push our full backs forward. All of the back 4 yesterday are pretty decent on the ball ,but with the possible exception of Mawson,all have their individuell quality in the constructive sides of their game .

I am beginning to think that we dont have a decent fullback at the club. Indeed the most assured  defensive performance   at full-back that I have witnessed this season was by Sessignon,and I am sure most would agree that he is best when going forward.
Odoi s  strength is not in one against one situations and he goes to ground far too easily.Bryan was miles out of position for both goals conceeded on saturday. Fonsu mensa and Christie are neither natural ,or even particular competent defenders.
Statistics are a tool to be used and advocated so I dont have a problem with that,but they nonetheless only provide the information that is asked for. We have clearly identified attacking full backs who get up and down the pitch ,via scouting and stats but the most important question for me with a full back at any level is is he good one on one defensively?,and can he defend the far post ? Clearly these are questions that have not been asked by all levels of our recruitment team,with our current players.
The same could be said of central midfielders ; of course they need to be assured on th ball , but can they win the second balls and more importantly do they have  awareness in decision making and running to cover danger areas when we get hit on the break ?
The statisticians tend not to be too hot on this type of information unfortunately, which is why I suspect that we are now in the predicament we are in.
It is crucial that we start to look at potential signings in a more rounded way and ask the right questions when referring to statistics.

Snibbo

For God's sake we don't sign based solely on stats.  See the interview with ranieri re how transfers work.

Every Prem team users stats. No Prem manager has total control of transfers,  for good reason - managers usually don't stay long

colinwhite

Snibbo dont really care about that, and certainly am not saying we shouldnt use stats ,but the information is only as good as the people interpretting it . Lets hope Ranierri is allowed to get the players in he wants.


Mince n Tatties

Quote from: Snibbo on December 16, 2018, 10:21:33 AM
For God's sake we don't sign based solely on stats.  See the interview with ranieri re how transfers work.

Every Prem team users stats. No Prem manager has total control of transfers,  for good reason - managers usually don't stay long

Yesterday's greats didn't need to look at stats and how many successful passes or whatever they did.
Fergie,Cloughie,Revie,Ramsey,Shankley,Stein,they went and
watched a player they fancied a few times,and then signed him or not on their own opinion.
Some of these stats nowadays a one foot sideways pass to your team mate is classed as successful... lol

toshes mate

Quote from: Snibbo on December 16, 2018, 10:21:33 AM
For God's sake we don't sign based solely on stats.  See the interview with ranieri re how transfers work.

Every Prem team users stats. No Prem manager has total control of transfers,  for good reason - managers usually don't stay long
Name me another PL side who has the son of the owner as DOF?  He is also running his own stats business - a clear conflict of interest, as they say.

Arthur

Quote from: Mince n Tatties on December 16, 2018, 10:38:07 AM
Yesterday's greats didn't need to look at stats and how many successful passes or whatever they did.
Fergie,Cloughie,Revie,Ramsey,Shankley,Stein,they went and
watched a player they fancied a few times,and then signed him or not on their own opinion.

You're right: yesterday's greats did sign players on their own opinion.

But so did yesterday's not-so-greats too.


SP

What frustrated me most yesterday was that WHU's defence was also brittle & we completely failed to capitalise on it. 

I can't recall the last decent result against WHU, possibly Hugo scoring a late winner?

toshes mate

Quote from: Arthur on December 16, 2018, 11:45:36 AM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on December 16, 2018, 10:38:07 AM
Yesterday's greats didn't need to look at stats and how many successful passes or whatever they did.
Fergie,Cloughie,Revie,Ramsey,Shankley,Stein,they went and
watched a player they fancied a few times,and then signed him or not on their own opinion.

You're right: yesterday's greats did sign players on their own opinion.

But so did yesterday's not-so-greats too.
Sadly, everything we judge about decisions is about 'yesterday', and that will never change (unless we learn how to time travel).

The point is surely that some managers have a gift that others may not find so readily accessible and that is the ability to get players to believe in themselves and the team they are playing in.   It is surely about getting that last ounce of ability and passion from players and it doesn't have a readily accessible method of being extracted by any statistic you care to mention until tomorrow when the decision is already done and dusted. 

Woolly Mammoth

There are three kinds of lies.
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.


filham

Quote from: Snibbo on December 16, 2018, 10:21:33 AM
For God's sake we don't sign based solely on stats.  See the interview with ranieri re how transfers work.

Every Prem team users stats. No Prem manager has total control of transfers,  for good reason - managers usually don't stay long
Alright then, the conclusion has to be that Jocanovic allowed the wrong type of player into the team. Lets hope Ranieri will correct the mistakes in January.

The Rational Fan

Fulham aren't trusting the statistics enough in recruitment.

Mitrovic, Chambers, MLM, Christie and Bryan justify their price tag's with statistics.

Seri and Anuissa dont justify their price tages with statistics, both having a good/bad season statistical.

Mawson statistics before his injury are not valid, so he doesn't justify his price tage either.

@jolslover

Quote from: Mince n Tatties on December 16, 2018, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: Snibbo on December 16, 2018, 10:21:33 AM
For God's sake we don't sign based solely on stats.  See the interview with ranieri re how transfers work.

Every Prem team users stats. No Prem manager has total control of transfers,  for good reason - managers usually don't stay long

Yesterday's greats didn't need to look at stats and how many successful passes or whatever they did.
Fergie,Cloughie,Revie,Ramsey,Shankley,Stein,they went and
watched a player they fancied a few times,and then signed him or not on their own opinion.
Some of these stats nowadays a one foot sideways pass to your team mate is classed as successful... lol

Ferguson literally signed Bebe and Djemba Djemba just off the back of youtube. Football is constantly changing and evolving, Why managers like Harry Redknapp don't cut it anymore. To not use stats because successful managers 20 years ago didn't is stupid. Should we not use phones because Winston Churchill didn't and he was a successful man? 
STH H3


colinwhite

#12
Of course stats should be used but if you read the Op my point is that the use of stats is fine but we have only been checking a certain type of data ,and as a consequence have a squad full of good footballing backs who are poor defenders,Ball watchers,dont smell danger,bomb forward and neglect their defensive duties. We need to have a better look at the type of players we need.
Seri replaced Johansen and is a better footballer,without Johansens mean streak ,which was one of his better qualities in my opinion.

Im not saying we should nt use stats ,simply that its a tool that needs acraftman in order to work properly.And sometimes the information in defensive terma doesnt collerate into stats particularly well.

Mince n Tatties

#13
Quote from: @jolslover on December 16, 2018, 01:49:26 PM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on December 16, 2018, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: Snibbo on December 16, 2018, 10:21:33 AM
For God's sake we don't sign based solely on stats.  See the interview with ranieri re how transfers work.

Every Prem team users stats. No Prem manager has total control of transfers,  for good reason - managers usually don't stay long

Yesterday's greats didn't need to look at stats and how many successful passes or whatever they did.
Fergie,Cloughie,Revie,Ramsey,Shankley,Stein,they went and
watched a player they fancied a few times,and then signed him or not on their own opinion.
Some of these stats nowadays a one foot sideways pass to your team mate is classed as successful... lol

Ferguson literally signed Bebe and Djemba Djemba just off the back of youtube. Football is constantly changing and evolving, Why managers like Harry Redknapp don't cut it anymore. To not use stats because successful managers 20 years ago didn't is stupid. Should we not use phones because Winston Churchill didn't and he was a successful man? 

I bet we signed Seri on stats of successful passes for Nice,and nobody at the club knew what he looked like
Jesus my wife could make successful passes in the French league,take out 3 teams and its on a par with the Ryman Premier.
Fergie signing someone of you tube,your drunk.
Did you know Cloughie watched John McGovern I think it was 6 times before he decided to sign him...Stats are nonsense, like ive already stated 6inch pass to team mate is classed as successful... Nonsense

Woolly Mammoth

Clearly the way Tony Khan uses stats is orchestrated poorly, and is basically a complete failure bordering on incompetence.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.


RaySmith

Quote from: Mince n Tatties on December 16, 2018, 02:37:34 PM
Quote from: @jolslover on December 16, 2018, 01:49:26 PM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on December 16, 2018, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: Snibbo on December 16, 2018, 10:21:33 AM
For God's sake we don't sign based solely on stats.  See the interview with ranieri re how transfers work.

Every Prem team users stats. No Prem manager has total control of transfers,  for good reason - managers usually don't stay long

Yesterday's greats didn't need to look at stats and how many successful passes or whatever they did.
Fergie,Cloughie,Revie,Ramsey,Shankley,Stein,they went and
watched a player they fancied a few times,and then signed him or not on their own opinion.
Some of these stats nowadays a one foot sideways pass to your team mate is classed as successful... lol

Ferguson literally signed Bebe and Djemba Djemba just off the back of youtube. Football is constantly changing and evolving, Why managers like Harry Redknapp don't cut it anymore. To not use stats because successful managers 20 years ago didn't is stupid. Should we not use phones because Winston Churchill didn't and he was a successful man? 

I bet we signed Seri on stats of successful passes for Nice,and nobody at the club knew what he looked like
Jesus my wife could make successful passes in the French league,take out 3 teams and its on a par with the Ryman Premier.
Fergie signing someone of you tube,your drunk.
Did you Cloughie watchedvJohn McGovern I think it was before he decided to sign him...Stats are nonsense, like ive already stated 6inch pass to team mate is classed as successful... Nonsense

Cloughie signed players and then  told his Chairman, local businessman Sam Woollaston, who wasn't too pleased, but he was certainly pleased at the heights  his manager took Derby to with his signings, such as McGovern and Dave Mackay - how we could do with someone like Mackay now for Fulham.

But as MJG says, stats are used by every top club now along with traditional scouting, to find good players from all over the world, and Fulham uses both methods, the two tick method, but in our summer signins something seem to have gone wrong in that we desperately  need Prem experience and toughness immediately. Our Prem signings  Mawson and Chanbers are now showing quality, but the major ones from abroad seem to be struggling - thrown in at he deep end, with other players new to the club, and their  quality and commitment is  being questioned.

But, we had to sign players quickly, but don't know if tha's much of an excuse - haven't  we learned from the past?

But now we have to get on with it, at least until Jan, when we hope some  experienced  quality signings can be brought in - players who can help in the battling and  scabbling  to grind out points of a relegation battle.

Mince n Tatties

When Fergie was at Aberdeen, he was after a winger Peter Weir from St Mirren,he went all the way over Eire and then Sweden to watch Weir in 3 pre season friendlies... Only him and Cloughie would have done that.

Arthur

Quote from: toshes mate on December 16, 2018, 12:32:33 PM
Quote from: Arthur on December 16, 2018, 11:45:36 AM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on December 16, 2018, 10:38:07 AM
Yesterday's greats didn't need to look at stats and how many successful passes or whatever they did.
Fergie,Cloughie,Revie,Ramsey,Shankley,Stein,they went and
watched a player they fancied a few times,and then signed him or not on their own opinion.

You're right: yesterday's greats did sign players on their own opinion.

But so did yesterday's not-so-greats too.
Sadly, everything we judge about decisions is about 'yesterday', and that will never change (unless we learn how to time travel).

The point is surely that some managers have a gift that others may not find so readily accessible and that is the ability to get players to believe in themselves and the team they are playing in.   It is surely about getting that last ounce of ability and passion from players and it doesn't have a readily accessible method of being extracted by any statistic you care to mention until tomorrow when the decision is already done and dusted. 

I agree with your point (that great managers inspire players) but I would question whether its the same point.

M&T's point is that great managers know best which players will best suit their teams. I agree with this too but dispute the notion that this alone is a convincing argument for allowing managers to have unbridled control over player acquisitions. For every Brian Clough and Bill Shankly, there must be many more managers whose undistinguished careers were the result of their inability to use their transfer kitty wisely.


The Rational Fan

#18
A few teams have been relegated with a bunch of players that produced decent individual statistics during that season (eg Stoke 2017/18). Fulham doesn't have that problem, Fulham is on track for the worst individual who scored statistics in the history of whoscored premier league statistics (current at 6.49 with lowest ever of any team 6.58 season end in 10 years).

Statistically, Fulham has one problem above any other, a bunch of players that are making a lot more mistakes than they did last season, particularly bad decreases in performance are Johasen, MacDonald, Cairney, Anguissa and Seri in central midfield; plus Mawson, Ream and Bryan in defence. I can explain the defensive perfornance drop as due to worse injuries than we realise, but the central midfield is packed with players that had excellent performances last year.

In truth, Fulhams performance on the field looks poor (not the worst in the EPL), the results are even poorer (worst in EPL 2018/19) but the whoscored statistics are truely unbelievable poor (worst in EPL history by a long long way). I don't think statistics are always correct, but Fulhams shocking statistics like individual mistakes is the reason we cannot get clean sheets.

Fulham's average whoscored player rating is 6.49, and only one team has ever survived in 10 years with a whoscored rating below 6.65. Raneri needs to get at least 7-8 players in the staring XI playing well before tactics and team work are any use.

The Rational Fan

#19
If you dont believe in statistics, i ask how accurate are this years statistics for ranking player performance?

Goalkeepers Performance Rankings (using 18/19 stats only)
1. Sergio Rico
2. Marcus Bettinelli
3. Fabri

Defenders Performance Rankings (using 18/19 stats only)
1. Maxime Le Marchand
2. Denis Odoi
3. Cyrus Christie
4. Alfie Mawson
5. Joe Bryan
6. Timothy Fosu-Mensah
7. Tim Ream

Midfielders Performance Rankings (using 18/19 stats only)
1. Calum Chambers
2. Jean Michael Seri
3. Tom Cairney
4. Zambo Anguissa 
5. Kevin McDonald
6. Stefan Johansen
7. Ibrahima Cissé

Attackers Performance Rankings (using 18/19 stats only)
1. Aleksandar Mitrovic
2. André Schürrle (IMO should be #3)
3. Ryan Sessegnon (IMO should be #2)
4. Luciano Vietto
5. Aboubakar Kamara
6. Floyd Ayité
7. Neeskens Kebano

My Verdict: Very Accurate iMO