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Stats are all well and good...

Started by colinwhite, December 16, 2018, 10:17:09 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

Mitch

Quote from: The Rational Fan on December 19, 2018, 10:56:24 AM
I agree with you Colin, looking at right statistics is key. As pointed out, two statistics our opponents will be noticing are i) we are not good at preventing crosses from the right; ii) some defensive players are short Seri 5ft 6in, Bryan 5ft 6in and Odoi 5ft 9in.

I believe we need Right Centre Back in the January transfer and if we want him to play behind Seri, the RCB must be statisically tall.

'Statistically tall' made me laugh. You're right - we do lack height. A lot of balls come in across our box and make it to the back post. I don't have access to the statistics, but would be interested to know how many goals have been conceded from the far post. I assume it's a lack of 1. aggressiveness to stop crosses, 2. height to clear the ball, 3. concentration/positioning of the full backs when the crosses have come in. Do you have access to anything like that?

RaySmith

Quote from: colinwhite on December 19, 2018, 05:50:23 AM
All well and good I stated originally. Of  course that is useful information but 95 per cent of football is how ,where and when you run without the ball which stats dont really measure. Football is about working with others adapting to situations,following a plan,and  most importantly making the correct decisions on the pitch. I have yet to see any statistics that cover any of these vital areas of footballing peformance.

Of course statistics have an important role to play in todays game. They may even make people like Tony khan feel more secure in the decisions they make,but they ,like other reasons for considering signing players ,never guarantee you anything.



Yes Colin finding space is such an important aspect of football, working hard to make yourself  available for the ball along with  defensive covering and making sure you mark up at corners etc., but what stat would measure such things.

But obviously stats do have a  a role to play inn  finding players all over the world, though they maybe give you too much choice sometimes - they don't tell you how much comparable value the stats have either. I mean I might have good stats  playing in the Sunday league.

So you don't, like Cloughie say 'that Dave Mackay', renowned Scottish midfield hardman in  the Spurs Double winning side , 'that's who we need at Derby', then drive down to London with assistant Peter Taylor, and go round  Mackay's house, and stay there till he signed for you. And then go and tell your chairman the news - well it wouldn't and couldn't happen today.

Stat are important but you shouldn't rely on them.

MJG

Quote from: RaySmith on December 19, 2018, 11:17:24 AM
Quote from: colinwhite on December 19, 2018, 05:50:23 AM
All well and good I stated originally. Of  course that is useful information but 95 per cent of football is how ,where and when you run without the ball which stats dont really measure. Football is about working with others adapting to situations,following a plan,and  most importantly making the correct decisions on the pitch. I have yet to see any statistics that cover any of these vital areas of footballing peformance.

Of course statistics have an important role to play in todays game. They may even make people like Tony khan feel more secure in the decisions they make,but they ,like other reasons for considering signing players ,never guarantee you anything.



Yes Colin finding space is such an important aspect of football, working hard to make yourself  available for the ball along with  defensive covering and making sure you mark up at corners etc., but what stat would measure such things.

But obviously stats do have a  a role to play inn  finding players all over the world, though they maybe give you too much choice sometimes - they don't tell you how much comparable value the stats have either. I mean I might have good stats  playing in the Sunday league.

So you don't, like Cloughie say 'that Dave Mackay', renowned Scottish midfield hardman in  the Spurs Double winning side , 'that's who we need at Derby', then drive down to London with assistant Peter Taylor, and go round  Mackay's house, and stay there till he signed for you. And then go and tell your chairman the news - well it wouldn't and couldn't happen today.

Stat are important but you shouldn't rely on them.
Player tracking software is used in part on this subject matter. Their positional sense and movement in match situtaions in diffent sections of the pitch. Also in relation to formations they have played in, partnerships with players, all types of information not in the public domain
Just the views of a long term fan


The Rational Fan

#43
Tony Khan has been using both stats and scouts since he came here. I am sure Tony Khan would trust whichever assesment method (stats or scouts) has best predicted future player performance for the last few seasons.

Twig

#44
Quote from: The Rational Fan on December 19, 2018, 12:21:08 PM
Tony Khan has been using both stats and scouts since he came here. I am sure Tony Khan would trust whichever assesment method (stats or scouts) has best predicted future player performance for the last few seasons.


I'm not so sure. I think that, as the owner of a sports stats company, he has an inbuilt belief in stats as the principal decision factor.  However it goes deeper than that, is performance the sole criteria? I don't think so; potential sell on value appears to be hugely important too. Now I am not suggesting that the latter should be ignored but just maybe we have the balance wrong?

RaySmith

Quote from: The Rational Fan on December 19, 2018, 12:21:08 PM
Tony Khan has been using both stats and scouts since he came here. I am sure Tony Khan would trust whichever assesment method (stats or scouts) has best predicted future player performance for the last few seasons.


Nothing against Tony Khan at all, but it seems generally agreed that our transfer activity in the  summer  has been a failure, in terms of getting in players who can have an immediate effect in the Prem, considering the money spent.


Mitch

Quote from: Twig on December 19, 2018, 12:47:12 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on December 19, 2018, 12:21:08 PM
Tony Khan has been using both stats and scouts since he came here. I am sure Tony Khan would trust whichever assesment method (stats or scouts) has best predicted future player performance for the last few seasons.


I'm not so sure I think that, as the owner of a sports stats company, he has an inbuilt belief in stats as the principal decision factor.  However it goes deeper than that, is performance the sole criteria? I don't think so; potential sell on value appears to be hugely important too. Now I am not suggesting that the latter should be ignored but just maybe we have the balance wrong?

I see what you're saying re sell on value, and it's part of my point above re Zambo. He does seem to be a signing where the decision makers have felt he has potential to be very good - sign him for £30m, sell him for £50m - but I'd question in our first Premier League season, are project players, for want of a better word, the ones you need to keep you up.

The first season can be very difficult, but if you stay up for one or two seasons, you can perhaps build from there. Signings initially could benefit from being more short term, and then the project buys looking toward sell-on could be introduced.

That said, I think it is a very good setup and a good way to run a club - it's worked well in the past for Udinese as an example.

colinwhite

Brian Clough had a happy knack of finding players that nobody rated and turning them into world beaters. The obvious one was Macgovern who won  at least 2 league titles and 2 european cups under Clough,and still got nowhere near the scotland squad! From his European winner sides Bowyer ,Woodcock ,Robertson,Wythe had all been left on the scrapheap, but fitted into the way Clough wanted his team to play.

I wonder what the stats would have made of that lot!
Only joking, thanks for a very interesting debate everyone.

Mitch

Quote from: colinwhite on December 19, 2018, 02:30:11 PM
Brian Clough had a happy knack of finding players that nobody rated and turning them into world beaters. The obvious one was Macgovern who won  at least 2 league titles and 2 european cups under Clough,and still got nowhere near the scotland squad! From his European winner sides Bowyer ,Woodcock ,Robertson,Wythe had all been left on the scrapheap, but fitted into the way Clough wanted his team to play.

I wonder what the stats would have made of that lot!
Only joking, thanks for a very interesting debate everyone.


There's a lot to be said for management and the right moment. Greece won the Euro's, and I doubt many of them would have the most impressive statistics over their whole careers (at an International level). Shows that it is still sport after all, and sport can be unpredictable.

Re Clough, I don't know, so I ask, what was the general knowledge of players like at the time? I'm not of that age, but would have teams have had the database and knowledge of players that they do now? Would it have been easier for more diamonds in the rough to slip through into lesser teams, with academy systems maybe not being as prolific and casting a net as wide as they are now?

There's also a lot to be said for the right person at the right time. Certain managers will always get more out of a player than others if their relationship is right. Players will play better in systems that suit them more too, so you've got to get the players in that the manager wants.


The Rational Fan

Quote from: Mitch on December 19, 2018, 03:02:35 PM
Quote from: colinwhite on December 19, 2018, 02:30:11 PM
Brian Clough had a happy knack of finding players that nobody rated and turning them into world beaters. The obvious one was Macgovern who won  at least 2 league titles and 2 european cups under Clough,and still got nowhere near the scotland squad! From his European winner sides Bowyer ,Woodcock ,Robertson,Wythe had all been left on the scrapheap, but fitted into the way Clough wanted his team to play.

I wonder what the stats would have made of that lot!
Only joking, thanks for a very interesting debate everyone.


There's a lot to be said for management and the right moment. Greece won the Euro's, and I doubt many of them would have the most impressive statistics over their whole careers (at an International level). Shows that it is still sport after all, and sport can be unpredictable.

Re Clough, I don't know, so I ask, what was the general knowledge of players like at the time? I'm not of that age, but would have teams have had the database and knowledge of players that they do now? Would it have been easier for more diamonds in the rough to slip through into lesser teams, with academy systems maybe not being as prolific and casting a net as wide as they are now?

There's also a lot to be said for the right person at the right time. Certain managers will always get more out of a player than others if their relationship is right. Players will play better in systems that suit them more too, so you've got to get the players in that the manager wants.

Brian Clough was the master at finding top players that no one else wanted. I reckon he'd be looking at at Anguissa now, say i'll buy him when he's selling for $2 million and build a team around him. I don't think it's as easy to do now.

colinwhite

just to redress the balance a bit Clough also signed some real duffers. Justin fashinu springs to mind and the first million pound (trevor francis) man never really worked out for him either. Actually they say that it was his assistant Peter Taylor who was the real talent spotter.

colinwhite

Mitch,in those days they probably didnt even know what stats were. Clough was known for giving his players whisky as a pick me up at five to three on matchdays........


RaySmith

#52
Things were a lot different in those days!

Re stats - well,computerised  technology is so advanced now and  affects every aspect of our lives, but only a province of a few experts then, and there were few foreign players in the British game, and  scouting was usually a bloke standing on the touchline making notes, then telling the manager, who might go and have a look at the players himself.

And Clough was defniitely hands on, and had  such  power and control as a manager, compared to  today, when a lot of his actions would  be considered unacceptable - eg telling the players at Leeds where he'd just taken over from Revie as manager, that they should thro all their  trophies  and medals in the bin, because they'd been won by cheating - allegedly, and manhandling fans who'd run on the pitch.

His Chairmen/owners were usually local businessman who'd always supported the club, and made a few bob to indulge their hobby. Fees and ,importantly, players' wages were nothing compared to today, terraces were all standing, and people would defend their 'ends' against being 'taken' by opposing fans, while chanting was often offensive by today's standards.....


But as a  manager  Clough  had a knack of getting the best out of unlikely players, and forming them  into a team that could achieve great things, when as individuals a lot of them hadn't done much in the game, or were seen as past their best years, like Dave Mackay. A bit like Roy at Fulham, perhaps, with Danny Murphy, Duff, Zamora , Gera etc.

Clough  had a lot of control over who played for him, which is  not the case for most managers today, when   millionaires and  corporations have the power in clubs, and players are  drawn from a world wide pool, so the manager couldn't possibly  keep a track on them personally, and stats are seen as a  necessary tool, along with  more traditional methods.