The magic 40 points

[The Swan]

The last time we were in the Premier League all teams wanted to reach the Magic 40 points to be sure of survival.

As we stand on 14 points we would need to gain 26 points in the 16 games.

We need to win nine games =27 points impossible

If we can win five games = 15 points and draw 10 =25 points impossible.

If we can win three games - 9 points and draw 10 = 19 points

Of course the target may not be as high as 40 so we may only need 16 points to reach 30. this is possible but may not be enough.

This is how I see us getting these points.

Spurs       home              zero
Brighton   home             3 points 
Palace      away              1 point
Man U      home               zero
W Ham    away                zero
S/Hampton away            1 point
Chelsea    home              zero
Leicester   away              1 point
Liverpool   home              zero
Man C      home               zero
Watford   away                1 point
Everton home                  1 point
Bourne    away                 1 point
Cardiff     home                3 points
Wolves    away                 1 point
Newcastle home               3 points
             Total                16 points + 14  = 30
Of course I may be wrong and we sign a great centre half and a good DM and RB and we could win a few more points then that.

[davew]

Very optimistic forecast, the best I can come up with is 9 points and I am being optimistic!

[Jimpav]

Loving your optimism Nose, would be some feat if we went unbeaten in our final 6 games.

[andyk]

 We can win the last 5 games, it's unlikely, but they are doable. The rest of them, I would say we will be luck to get 5 points. 
That would give us 34 points. Probably not enough, but maybe.
The other issue is belief, motivation.  If those final 5 games take place with us 10 points from safety the squad might have given up.

More likely we will continue with our current points ratio to the end of the season and finish with 25/26 points.

I'm not giving up, but it looks pretty grim.

[Woolly Mammoth]

Nothing is impossible. But to achieve survival we cannot do it alone, the need for new players quality players, is paramount and our only hope under the circumstances, but It can be done with the right recruitment, followed by good man management and a system of play that is comefortable with the players who have to be of the right character and show the right application and commitment.

[SouthIslandWhite]

Even Kostas Mitroglou couldn't save us now.

:beer:

[The Rational Fan]

If 40 points is what we need, the season is over; but 33 points is not impossible.

Spurs       home              zero
Brighton   home             3 points 
Palace      away              1 point
Man U      home               zero
W Ham    away              1 point
S/Hampton away            3 point
Chelsea    home              zero
Leicester   away              1 point
Liverpool   home              zero
Man C      home               zero
Watford   away                1 point
Everton home                  1 point
Bourne    away                 1 point
Cardiff     home                3 points
Wolves    away                 1 point
Newcastle home               3 points

Still i dont see it likely enough to justify buying Cahill, Drinkwater and Moses.

[toshes mate]

The trick is in turning the majority of the drawn games into wins - an additional eight points (and safety) - which usually works wonders for whoever achieves it.

[Spirit of 2000]

The Premier this year won't need anything like 40 pts to survive. 35 should do it - sadly we'll be lucky to get 25.

[the nutflush]

More chance of the whole squad flying to the moon in Mr Khans private jet than getting 40 points.

[Bill2]

With the number of poor sides in the bottom 6 places I don't think 40 will be required, so I am sitting here fingers crossed that 30 + will suffice.

[nose returns]

Loving your optimism Nose, would be some feat if we went unbeaten in our final 6 games.

just to assure you you I only have one AKA and am not reponsible for the Swan.... I do not think we will make 25 points at the moment and unless the new man 'Multiple Signings' arrives soon I do not think we will get more than one or two more points, I am not sure what the management are waiting for? we already lost at burnley for lack of a forward and center half so that was three points thrown away.

[nose returns]

The trick is in turning the majority of the drawn games into wins - an additional eight points (and safety) - which usually works wonders for whoever achieves it.

and of course dfespite my disbeif we will do it, if we do win a couple on the bounce then the momentum develops but we do not look like winning the first game.

[Fulham76]

We're not going to reach 40 points, absolutely no chance. But we may not need to as there are quite a few poor teams in the league this season.

I can see the team that finishes in 17th having a record low points total.

[Statto]

If 40 points is what we need, the season is over; but 33 points is not impossible.

Spurs       home              zero
Brighton   home             3 points 
Palace      away              1 point
Man U      home               zero
W Ham    away              1 point
S/Hampton away            3 point
Chelsea    home              zero
Leicester   away              1 point
Liverpool   home              zero
Man C      home               zero
Watford   away                1 point
Everton home                  1 point
Bourne    away                 1 point
Cardiff     home                3 points
Wolves    away                 1 point
Newcastle home               3 points

Still i dont see it likely enough to justify buying Cahill, Drinkwater and Moses.

If we'd improved to any significant extent since Ranieri took over, those results would be easily achievable
The fact that I, and I assume most on here, can't see us getting results like a draw at Wolves, just shows we are still totally crap

[One James stannard]

Spurs       home              zero
Brighton   home             1 point
Palace      away              Zero
Man U      home               zero
W Ham    away              1 point
S/Hampton away            1 point
Chelsea    home              zero
Leicester   away              Zero
Liverpool   home              zero
Man C      home               zero
Watford   away                Zero
Everton home                  1 point
Bourne    away                 Zero
Cardiff     home                3 points
Wolves    away                 Zero
Newcastle home               3 points

14+10= 24 points, not a hope in hell of us staying in this league

[Jimpav]

Loving your optimism Nose, would be some feat if we went unbeaten in our final 6 games.

just to assure you you I only have one AKA and am not reponsible for the Swan.... I do not think we will make 25 points at the moment and unless the new man 'Multiple Signings' arrives soon I do not think we will get more than one or two more points, I am not sure what the management are waiting for? we already lost at burnley for lack of a forward and center half so that was three points thrown away.

Apologies Nose, I think I must have been reading one of your other posts shortly before reading Swans thread and writing this - I was surprised by the optomism thats for sure!

There's only one Nose!

[alfie]

If 40 points is what we need, the season is over; but 33 points is not impossible.

Spurs       home              zero
Brighton   home             3 points 
Palace      away              1 point
Man U      home               zero
W Ham    away              1 point
S/Hampton away            3 point
Chelsea    home              zero
Leicester   away              1 point
Liverpool   home              zero
Man C      home               zero
Watford   away                1 point
Everton home                  1 point
Bourne    away                 1 point
Cardiff     home                3 points
Wolves    away                 1 point
Newcastle home               3 points

Still i dont see it likely enough to justify buying Cahill, Drinkwater and Moses.

Trouble is this is all guess work, we may get points we are not expecting or indeed lose points we would expect to get.
"It's a funny old game"

[Baszab]

How could anyone have 2 noses ?

[fcfulham55]

With out current team, no ideal signings (no injuries) to key players. Or Mitrovic should I say, then I can only see

Spurs       home               0
Brighton   home               1
Palace      away                0
Man U      home               0
W Ham    away                0
S/Hampton away             0
Chelsea    home               0
Leicester   away               0
Liverpool   home              0
Man C      home               0
Watford   away                0
Everton home                  0
Bourne    away                 1
Cardiff     home                3 points
Wolves    away                 0 point
Newcastle home               1 points


6 points