Pod interview with Tony Khan

[Nero]

The good news is hate or love TKs system Scott is sitting down with hi and the scouting team and talking about the players that are potential targets , which seems in the past hasn't been done so how can you moan about a process that they haven;t wanted to be part of.

So any F ups this time on transfer Scott has approved but still TK will get the blame the one that work Scott will be heralded as a god

[Dr Quinzel]

It's not uncommon for the higher-ups, i.e. CEO's, presidents, directors and such, to take credit for all the good things that are done underneath during their tenure.  This is nothing new and I suspect will continue throughout time. 

I have no doubt that in the end it was Tony who put the final decision in bringing Mitro.  Somewhere however I am sure there was an underling who originally put Mitro into the two-box system by either the means of scouting or stats. 

What would be nice would be for the higher-ups to give credit due to everyone and say something like, "My team started tracking Mitro while he was at Newcastle.  We put him in the system and in the end, while it was ultimately my decision, we all agreed Mitro would be a good deal and a good fit. "

Very fair, and speaks for people's assertion that he is both arrogant and in need of validation.

TK has the kind of personality that you'll either see or see through.  Who is right and who is wrong is a matter of personal taste.  I personally don't see him as a leader and some of the things he said endorsed that view.  There is the point where he says he never interfered with team selection and yet he also says he expressed opinions on same to the coaches.  That is a reflection of how his personality works and how he expects (note the word) others to deal with.  Leaders require followers and I believe TK follows in order to appear to lead - in other words his logic is as twisted as his belief that data manipulation can do what a human being cannot.  First law of programming - it needs a human being to understand the problem thoroughly before being able to determine if a computer can produce the desired result.

But it's fairly well established that it can.   https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1788702050/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o07_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1 the first few pages of this book give an excellent overview of why.  Humans will see the same match and give very different interpretations of what they've seen.  They'll remember some bits and not others, and what they see will conform to their own biases.   And they can only see a very limited number of games, too.  Data gets past all that.   Your point about needing to understand is reasonable but the data ought to prove itself and, as noted in the interview, if the scouts and data disagree they'll keep looking to understand why.  So it doesn't seem unreasonable at all.

I am a computer programmer of almost fifty years experience.  What do I know?

I don't know?

Java and Python?  :005:

[Dr Quinzel]

In the past, if company A fancies buying company B it would look for an info it could find maybe look over company B's books given the chance. Now that would all be accessed via computers and.various analysts will crunch the data. That's all he's trying to do. To rule out as many negatives as possible. It's not 100% maybe somewhere round 50%. If he can get his %'s up then the Club succeeds. Whilst we have one of the richest men in the World holding the reins I'm happy to let him get on with it and try and make it work.

No problem with the use of analytics. Problem is with the man with a past history of failure doing so, and not doing it particularly well. Amongst other things.

[Woolly Mammoth]

You cannot make a silk purse out of a sows ear.

[love4ffc]

The good needs is hate or love TKs system Scott is sitting down with hi and the scouting team and talking about the players that are potential targets , which seems in the past hasn't been done so how can you moan about a process that they haven;t wanted to be part of.

So any F ups this time on transfer Scott has approved but still TK will get the blame the one that work Scott will be heralded as a god

Loved that part about Scott sitting in on as many transfer meetings and getting everybody into the same room.  Shows Scott really wants to be involved in all aspects of the team decisions and shows great character on his part. 

[wormbridge]

In the past, if company A fancies buying company B it would look for an info it could find maybe look over company B's books given the chance. Now that would all be accessed via computers and.various analysts will crunch the data. That's all he's trying to do. To rule out as many negatives as possible. It's not 100% maybe somewhere round 50%. If he can get his %'s up then the Club succeeds. Whilst we have one of the richest men in the World holding the reins I'm happy to let him get on with it and try and make it work.

No problem with the use of analytics. Problem is with the man with a past history of failure doing so, and not doing it particularly well. Amongst other things.

Ah for sure.   FWIW I think he's probably done quite well with identifying players but not with buying them at a reasonable price.  I think Anguissa and Seri could have been more than useful in a more complete squad, but not sure how they ended up at the price they did for them.   There are obvious misses and some hits, which is the norm for these things.  I don't know that we're better or worse than we ought to be.  Except that this methodology ought to help us find undervalued players, and there's not much point in finding hidden gems if you then pay £25/30m for them.

I agree with those who question the goalkeeping acquisitions as well and part of me wonders if this didn't inflict more damage than is otherwise realised - if your keeper is awful it's hard for anyone else to look good.  And analytics overall does struggle with keepers.   

[toshes mate]

It's not uncommon for the higher-ups, i.e. CEO's, presidents, directors and such, to take credit for all the good things that are done underneath during their tenure.  This is nothing new and I suspect will continue throughout time. 

I have no doubt that in the end it was Tony who put the final decision in bringing Mitro.  Somewhere however I am sure there was an underling who originally put Mitro into the two-box system by either the means of scouting or stats. 

What would be nice would be for the higher-ups to give credit due to everyone and say something like, "My team started tracking Mitro while he was at Newcastle.  We put him in the system and in the end, while it was ultimately my decision, we all agreed Mitro would be a good deal and a good fit. "

Very fair, and speaks for people's assertion that he is both arrogant and in need of validation.

TK has the kind of personality that you'll either see or see through.  Who is right and who is wrong is a matter of personal taste.  I personally don't see him as a leader and some of the things he said endorsed that view.  There is the point where he says he never interfered with team selection and yet he also says he expressed opinions on same to the coaches.  That is a reflection of how his personality works and how he expects (note the word) others to deal with.  Leaders require followers and I believe TK follows in order to appear to lead - in other words his logic is as twisted as his belief that data manipulation can do what a human being cannot.  First law of programming - it needs a human being to understand the problem thoroughly before being able to determine if a computer can produce the desired result.

But it's fairly well established that it can.   https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1788702050/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o07_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1 the first few pages of this book give an excellent overview of why.  Humans will see the same match and give very different interpretations of what they've seen.  They'll remember some bits and not others, and what they see will conform to their own biases.   And they can only see a very limited number of games, too.  Data gets past all that.   Your point about needing to understand is reasonable but the data ought to prove itself and, as noted in the interview, if the scouts and data disagree they'll keep looking to understand why.  So it doesn't seem unreasonable at all.

I am a computer programmer of almost fifty years experience.  What do I know?

I don't know?

Data has to be specific or precise to have any meaning at all to a human being e.g. You think TK is wonderful and I don't.  Now we could set up a computer program to determine who out of the two of us is right or wrong.  To do so we would sit down and determine what makes a human being wonderful.  We could spend a lifetime arguing about the things that make a human being wonderful and not reach agreement, but we want to be friendly and get the computer program to run, and so we agree upon a compromise set of factors suitable for it.  We also manage to agree on each factor as it relates to TK.  We enter the data into the computer.  We run the program and it says 'you are right' and 'I am wrong'.   What has the computer told us?  (It isn't a trick question).     

[AnOldBrownie]

Well ive been called afew things in my time but psycophant is a new one on me ! Either way uncalled for and out of order.

I had to look that poo up.  I was impressed.  :003:

[The Rational Fan]

I was deflated with the news AK is coming back.

I just dont happen to think he is that good. Apart from that, all seems well

I thought the interview went very well, apart from the bit where TK seemed to think that Kamara is a starting XI player rather than a super-sub. I really hope we don't start next season with Atyie and Kamara starting every game. He clearly rates both players as starters, I rate them as bench players only.

[ALG01]

I believe Tony Khan has the ability to source money from Fulham's owner better than other DoF. The ability to source money is Best Prediictor of DoF success. Even if Shahid Khan wasn't the owner, I have little doubt about Tony Khan's ability to source money probable from his family.

So let me try a question. assume TK's dad was broke, i.e. has no vast cash reserve... would TK be a good DoF based on his track record?

Maybe, if Fulham's owner was broke, we would have to employ the cheapest DoF in world football, which is Tony Khan. More seriously of course, Tony Khan is DoF because of his access to his dads money so what. Privellege goes to rich sons that is not a secret, I doubt David Cameron and Boris Johnson would have been Prime Ministers, if their rich parents sent them to the poshiest school in the world (i.e Eton College).

I am, truly struggling to follow any of your logic from the initial comments on the first page where you said TK would get a job elsewhere because he works for free. I had said that TK would not get a job anywhere else in football as DoF because he is not good enough and is only at Fulham because of his dad. IMO and many others, he is very poor at his job and we the supporters, who are powerless to stop this negligence being carried forward, and cough up to support the beloved team, are totally frustrated watching the same errors over and over since the Khan's took over. This would not be acceptable anywhere else.

I am not sure why you are incapable of just saying you agree that TK is clearly the wrong man for the job based on the evidence. And if you do not agree point me to the contrary evidence.

[wormbridge]

It's not uncommon for the higher-ups, i.e. CEO's, presidents, directors and such, to take credit for all the good things that are done underneath during their tenure.  This is nothing new and I suspect will continue throughout time. 

I have no doubt that in the end it was Tony who put the final decision in bringing Mitro.  Somewhere however I am sure there was an underling who originally put Mitro into the two-box system by either the means of scouting or stats. 

What would be nice would be for the higher-ups to give credit due to everyone and say something like, "My team started tracking Mitro while he was at Newcastle.  We put him in the system and in the end, while it was ultimately my decision, we all agreed Mitro would be a good deal and a good fit. "

Very fair, and speaks for people's assertion that he is both arrogant and in need of validation.

TK has the kind of personality that you'll either see or see through.  Who is right and who is wrong is a matter of personal taste.  I personally don't see him as a leader and some of the things he said endorsed that view.  There is the point where he says he never interfered with team selection and yet he also says he expressed opinions on same to the coaches.  That is a reflection of how his personality works and how he expects (note the word) others to deal with.  Leaders require followers and I believe TK follows in order to appear to lead - in other words his logic is as twisted as his belief that data manipulation can do what a human being cannot.  First law of programming - it needs a human being to understand the problem thoroughly before being able to determine if a computer can produce the desired result.

But it's fairly well established that it can.   https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1788702050/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o07_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1 the first few pages of this book give an excellent overview of why.  Humans will see the same match and give very different interpretations of what they've seen.  They'll remember some bits and not others, and what they see will conform to their own biases.   And they can only see a very limited number of games, too.  Data gets past all that.   Your point about needing to understand is reasonable but the data ought to prove itself and, as noted in the interview, if the scouts and data disagree they'll keep looking to understand why.  So it doesn't seem unreasonable at all.

I am a computer programmer of almost fifty years experience.  What do I know?

I don't know?

Data has to be specific or precise to have any meaning at all to a human being e.g. You think TK is wonderful and I don't.  Now we could set up a computer program to determine who out of the two of us is right or wrong.  To do so we would sit down and determine what makes a human being wonderful.  We could spend a lifetime arguing about the things that make a human being wonderful and not reach agreement, but we want to be friendly and get the computer program to run, and so we agree upon a compromise set of factors suitable for it.  We also manage to agree on each factor as it relates to TK.  We enter the data into the computer.  We run the program and it says 'you are right' and 'I am wrong'.   What has the computer told us?  (It isn't a trick question).     

I don't think he's wonderful at all though.  This is why the internet is so insane these days. You try to suggest that all these extreme views are a bit much and you're automatically cast onto the other extreme.  I just said a few times that I feel he's broadly on the right lines and doesn't deserve all the nonsense thrown his way.

As for football, it's probably not that different to anything that's quantitatively measured.  So if you're looking at share performance you can see what variables might predict future performance and then back test this with data to the point where, to a degree, you can predict future performance.  so you do the same here.  What data is important in winning football matches?   Then break down from there.  It's work in progress but far from impossible, particularly now when the data is so much more advanced.

[The Rational Fan]

I believe Tony Khan has the ability to source money from Fulham's owner better than other DoF. The ability to source money is Best Prediictor of DoF success. Even if Shahid Khan wasn't the owner, I have little doubt about Tony Khan's ability to source money probable from his family.

So let me try a question. assume TK's dad was broke, i.e. has no vast cash reserve... would TK be a good DoF based on his track record?

Maybe, if Fulham's owner was broke, we would have to employ the cheapest DoF in world football, which is Tony Khan. More seriously of course, Tony Khan is DoF because of his access to his dads money so what. Privellege goes to rich sons that is not a secret, I doubt David Cameron and Boris Johnson would have been Prime Ministers, if their rich parents sent them to the poshiest school in the world (i.e Eton College).

I am, truly struggling to follow any of your logic from the initial comments on the first page where you said TK would get a job elsewhere because he works for free. I had said that TK would not get a job anywhere else in football as DoF because he is not good enough and is only at Fulham because of his dad. IMO and many others, he is very poor at his job and we the supporters, who are powerless to stop this negligence being carried forward, and cough up to support the beloved team, are totally frustrated watching the same errors over and over since the Khan's took over. This would not be acceptable anywhere else.

I am not sure why you are incapable of just saying you agree that TK is clearly the wrong man for the job based on the evidence. And if you do not agree point me to the contrary evidence.

I believe that Tony Khan is the right man for the job, cause he is incredibly strong at obtaining funding and investor relations (the main investor was at his conception); we don't need a new DOF but we do need a better advisors particularly in the scouting team to compensate for his inexperience in that area.

[AnOldBrownie]

I am not sure why you are incapable of just saying you agree that TK is clearly the wrong man for the job based on the evidence. And if you do not agree point me to the contrary evidence.

You want him to say there are much better DofF candidates.  Correct?

We all agree there are probably at least 20 individuals that would make better DofF and Tony Khan is learning as he goes, while managing other roles with other businesses.

And?

His dad isn't going to fire him prior to this season kicking off.

[wormbridge]

I am not sure why you are incapable of just saying you agree that TK is clearly the wrong man for the job based on the evidence. And if you do not agree point me to the contrary evidence.

You want him to say there are much better DofF candidates.  Correct?

We all agree there are probably at least 20 individuals that would make better DofF and Tony Khan is learning as he goes, while managing other roles with other businesses.

And?

His dad isn't going to fire him prior to this season kicking off.

but that's another issue.  DOF is a woolly role and not that many people can say they've done it well.   especially in England where we've unusually wed to the cult of the manager (not here though...)

[The Rational Fan]

I am not sure why you are incapable of just saying you agree that TK is clearly the wrong man for the job based on the evidence. And if you do not agree point me to the contrary evidence.

You want him to say there are much better DofF candidates.  Correct?

We all agree there are probably at least 20 individuals that would make better DofF and Tony Khan is learning as he goes, while managing other roles with other businesses. And?

His dad isn't going to fire him prior to this season kicking off.

Plus if Tony Khan is to be believed, his father wouldn't have loaned Mitrovoic except Tony Khan was DoF. So, if we fire the Dof and the new DoF cannot convince SK to spend money, then we are toast. Any DoF backed by the owner financial will do better than one that is not.

[toshes mate]

Data has to be specific or precise to have any meaning at all to a human being e.g. You think TK is wonderful and I don't.  Now we could set up a computer program to determine who out of the two of us is right or wrong.  To do so we would sit down and determine what makes a human being wonderful.  We could spend a lifetime arguing about the things that make a human being wonderful and not reach agreement, but we want to be friendly and get the computer program to run, and so we agree upon a compromise set of factors suitable for it.  We also manage to agree on each factor as it relates to TK.  We enter the data into the computer.  We run the program and it says 'you are right' and 'I am wrong'.   What has the computer told us?  (It isn't a trick question).     

I don't think he's wonderful at all though.  This is why the internet is so insane these days. You try to suggest that all these extreme views are a bit much and you're automatically cast onto the other extreme.  I just said a few times that I feel he's broadly on the right lines and doesn't deserve all the nonsense thrown his way.

As for football, it's probably not that different to anything that's quantitatively measured.  So if you're looking at share performance you can see what variables might predict future performance and then back test this with data to the point where, to a degree, you can predict future performance.  so you do the same here.  What data is important in winning football matches?   Then break down from there.  It's work in progress but far from impossible, particularly now when the data is so much more advanced.

It was a make believe scenario.  My apologies for not being clearer about that. 
The simple answer to my question was that, based upon our scores, the score for TK being wonderful added up to more points than the score for him not being wonderful.  There are trickier answers to the question e.g. you are a better negotiator for TK than I am against him and so on.  The point is the data put in by us is the data that will be pushed out to us.  The computer simply adds up and makes calculations based on the input.

Good data is good data and bad data is bad data.  Computers simply manipulate what is fed to them as in garbage in, garbage out.   

[sunburywhite]

You cannot make a silk purse out of a sours ear.

or a sow's ear

[toshes mate]

I am not sure why you are incapable of just saying you agree that TK is clearly the wrong man for the job based on the evidence. And if you do not agree point me to the contrary evidence.

You want him to say there are much better DofF candidates.  Correct?

We all agree there are probably at least 20 individuals that would make better DofF and Tony Khan is learning as he goes, while managing other roles with other businesses. And?

His dad isn't going to fire him prior to this season kicking off.

Plus if Tony Khan is to be believed, his father wouldn't have loaned Mitrovoic except Tony Khan was DoF. So, if we fire the Dof and the new DoF cannot convince SK to spend money, then we are toast. Any DoF backed by the owner financial will do better than one that is not.

Yes, but, the question raised via TK's interaction with his dad was about the financing of his loan in an unexpected opportunity situation not per se.  According to TK we had already bid for Mitro and he chose Anderlecht over us.  That suggests the money was already there for a transfer if not a loan.  I do get your reasoning behind the TK-SK situation but I think you over play it far too dramatically.   

[wormbridge]

Data has to be specific or precise to have any meaning at all to a human being e.g. You think TK is wonderful and I don't.  Now we could set up a computer program to determine who out of the two of us is right or wrong.  To do so we would sit down and determine what makes a human being wonderful.  We could spend a lifetime arguing about the things that make a human being wonderful and not reach agreement, but we want to be friendly and get the computer program to run, and so we agree upon a compromise set of factors suitable for it.  We also manage to agree on each factor as it relates to TK.  We enter the data into the computer.  We run the program and it says 'you are right' and 'I am wrong'.   What has the computer told us?  (It isn't a trick question).     

I don't think he's wonderful at all though.  This is why the internet is so insane these days. You try to suggest that all these extreme views are a bit much and you're automatically cast onto the other extreme.  I just said a few times that I feel he's broadly on the right lines and doesn't deserve all the nonsense thrown his way.

As for football, it's probably not that different to anything that's quantitatively measured.  So if you're looking at share performance you can see what variables might predict future performance and then back test this with data to the point where, to a degree, you can predict future performance.  so you do the same here.  What data is important in winning football matches?   Then break down from there.  It's work in progress but far from impossible, particularly now when the data is so much more advanced.

It was a make believe scenario.  My apologies for not being clearer about that. 
The simple answer to my question was that, based upon our scores, the score for TK being wonderful added up to more points than the score for him not being wonderful.  There are trickier answers to the question e.g. you are a better negotiator for TK than I am against him and so on.  The point is the data put in by us is the data that will be pushed out to us.  The computer simply adds up and makes calculations based on the input.

Good data is good data and bad data is bad data.  Computers simply manipulate what is fed to them as in garbage in, garbage out.   

No but your regression model should cover that.  So Ferguson sold Jaap Stam because his tackling numbers were declining.  That was a mistake because tackling wasn't a good variable and didn't impact on winning matches.  However, these days there's so much data that you can build models which do correlate well with winning matches.   So if you have a model whose data accurately explains winning football matches then you're golden. 

[Woolly Mammoth]

You cannot make a silk purse out of a sows ear.

or a sow's ear

But this Sow is very sour