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FFP breakdown

Started by charlieFFC, January 30, 2020, 01:51:52 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

charlieFFC

To any experts on football and accounting specifically the realms of FFP, is anyone able to give a breakdown for Fulham financials with respect to FFP.

Everyone always mentions the restrictions from us just spending silly money which is fair enough but surely with the transparency of accounts we are able to know the exact amount we can spend on both wages and transfers without crossing it.

I'm just curious as FFP always seems really vague when really from my understanding of it, it should be much clearer and teams should have an exact understanding of how much is available as we know all the variables that contribute to Profit n loss.

Sorry for the ramblings I just thought with deadline day looming it would be great to understand what are financial picture looks like currently and in the near future. I know this is subject to huge variance depending on which league we see ourselves in.

Cheers to anyone who can enlighten   :Haynes The Maestro:

The Rational Fan

Fulham Accounts upto the 30th June 2018 has been released at https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/03374347/filing-history

What we really need to get a clear picture is the Fulham Accounts upto the 30th June 2019 that will probably be released around the 6th June 2020.

charlieFFC

Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:21:23 PM
Fulham Accounts upto the 30th June 2018 has been released at https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/03374347/filing-history

What we really need to get a clear picture is the Fulham Accounts upto the 30th June 2019 that will probably be released around the 6th June 2020.

Ok, thanks for the link.

So is it theoretically possible come circa June 6th when results are published that we can have an exact number in mind that can be used for transfers / player wages.

I know I am being incredibly naive but it just frustrates me that there is an apparent FFP threshold number and all our financials are published yet we never know what maximum budget is available bu rather just people conjecturing on rumors, using FFP as an excuse.


MJG

Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 02:27:55 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:21:23 PM
Fulham Accounts upto the 30th June 2018 has been released at https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/03374347/filing-history

What we really need to get a clear picture is the Fulham Accounts upto the 30th June 2019 that will probably be released around the 6th June 2020.

Ok, thanks for the link.

So is it theoretically possible come circa June 6th when results are published that we can have an exact number in mind that can be used for transfers / player wages.

I know I am being incredibly naive but it just frustrates me that there is an apparent FFP threshold number and all our financials are published yet we never know what maximum budget is available bu rather just people conjecturing on rumors, using FFP as an excuse.
No its not that simple. We can(and I have tried along witth others) done back of a fag packet figures but the range of possible transfer figures just make it pretty much a waste of time without knowing some exact figures from the club deep in the accounts.
Just the views of a long term fan

Penfold

Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:21:23 PM
Fulham Accounts upto the 30th June 2018 has been released at https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/03374347/filing-history

What we really need to get a clear picture is the Fulham Accounts upto the 30th June 2019 that will probably be released around the 6th June 2020.

The 2019 accounts are due to be filled at Companies House by 31 March 2020, so hopefully they will be able to be viewed shortly after.

charlieFFC

Quote from: MJG on January 30, 2020, 02:30:01 PM
Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 02:27:55 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:21:23 PM
Fulham Accounts upto the 30th June 2018 has been released at https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/03374347/filing-history

What we really need to get a clear picture is the Fulham Accounts upto the 30th June 2019 that will probably be released around the 6th June 2020.

Ok, thanks for the link.

So is it theoretically possible come circa June 6th when results are published that we can have an exact number in mind that can be used for transfers / player wages.

I know I am being incredibly naive but it just frustrates me that there is an apparent FFP threshold number and all our financials are published yet we never know what maximum budget is available bu rather just people conjecturing on rumors, using FFP as an excuse.
No its not that simple. We can(and I have tried along witth others) done back of a fag packet figures but the range of possible transfer figures just make it pretty much a waste of time without knowing some exact figures from the club deep in the accounts.

Cheers MJG.

I figured it wasnt an exact science, probably difficult to even get ball park figures - but I assume people employed by the club have access to the required exact data and can therefore get things to a single available number?


The Rational Fan

#6
Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 01:51:52 PM
To any experts on football and accounting specifically the realms of FFP, is anyone able to give a breakdown for Fulham financials with respect to FFP.

Everyone always mentions the restrictions from us just spending silly money which is fair enough but surely with the transparency of accounts we are able to know the exact amount we can spend on both wages and transfers without crossing it.

I'm just curious as FFP always seems really vague when really from my understanding of it, it should be much clearer and teams should have an exact understanding of how much is available as we know all the variables that contribute to Profit n loss.

Sorry for the ramblings I just thought with deadline day looming it would be great to understand what are financial picture looks like currently and in the near future. I know this is subject to huge variance depending on which league we see ourselves in.

Cheers to anyone who can enlighten   :Haynes The Maestro:

One of the biggest unknowns to how much we have available is what are the current official valuations of the players we own according to the DOF. The higher the player valuations the more money we have to spend this year, but the less money we have in the following years. If the DOF lies about the players valuations to get more money to spend, he can be sued by the owner. Of course, this DOF has no chance of being sued by the owner, so he hasd lots and lots of semi-honest options.

In the end, we can spend heaps more this year as long as the DOF keeps Seri and Anguissa book value at dishonestly high levels. The problem is that keeping the value high now, means it will fall more in the future. Tony Khan seems to be trying to do a mix of both trying now and in the future. In truth so much of Fulham's future depends on the prices we get for Anguissa, Seri and Mitro, so hope they all kick ass.

From what I can tell, this transfer window we will get Jota on loan and if we can buy the right-back we want then we will sell Christie.

Statto

Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:36:42 PM
One of the biggest unknowns to how much we have available is what are the current official valuations of the players we own according to the DOF. The higher the player valuations the more money we have to spend this year, but the less money we have in the following years. If the DOF lies about the players valuations to get more money to spend, he can be sued by the owner. Of course, this DOF has no chance of being sued by the owner, so he hasd lots and lots of semi-honest options.

In the end, we can spend heaps more this year as long as the DOF keeps Seri and Anguissa book value at dishonestly high levels. The problem is that keeping the value high now, means it will fall more in the future. Tony Khan seems to be trying to do a mix of both trying now and in the future. In truth so much of Fulham's future depends on the prices we get for Anguissa, Seri and Mitro, so hope they all kick ass.

Perhaps he can't get sued by the owner, but he can get sent to prison for fraudulent accounting.

My understanding (which admittedly isn't perfect) is that essentially, if you spend £25m on a player (eg Anguissa) you can't just make that disappear in the accounts.

What you can legitimately do, however, is say you've swapped £25m in cash for an asset worth £25m, and treat the value of that asset as amortising over the term of his contract, ie, rather than losing £25m up front, you lose £5m per year over five years as the player's book value reduces.

And if necessary, you can use 'impairment' to bring forward some of those losses, eg, bringing them into a season where you've a much higher revenue to offset them.

But I'm not sure how TK or AM could just keep a player's "book value at dishonestly high levels." 

charlieFFC

Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:36:42 PM
Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 01:51:52 PM
To any experts on football and accounting specifically the realms of FFP, is anyone able to give a breakdown for Fulham financials with respect to FFP.

Everyone always mentions the restrictions from us just spending silly money which is fair enough but surely with the transparency of accounts we are able to know the exact amount we can spend on both wages and transfers without crossing it.

I'm just curious as FFP always seems really vague when really from my understanding of it, it should be much clearer and teams should have an exact understanding of how much is available as we know all the variables that contribute to Profit n loss.

Sorry for the ramblings I just thought with deadline day looming it would be great to understand what are financial picture looks like currently and in the near future. I know this is subject to huge variance depending on which league we see ourselves in.

Cheers to anyone who can enlighten   :Haynes The Maestro:

One of the biggest unknowns to how much we have available is what are the current official valuations of the players we own according to the DOF. The higher the player valuations the more money we have to spend this year, but the less money we have in the following years. If the DOF lies about the players valuations to get more money to spend, he can be sued by the owner. Of course, this DOF has no chance of being sued by the owner, so he hasd lots and lots of semi-honest options.

In the end, we can spend heaps more this year as long as the DOF keeps Seri and Anguissa book value at dishonestly high levels. The problem is that keeping the value high now, means it will fall more in the future. Tony Khan seems to be trying to do a mix of both trying now and in the future. In truth so much of Fulham's future depends on the prices we get for Anguissa, Seri and Mitro, so hope they all kick ass.

See this is where I get lost.

- Where are these valuations of Seri and Anguissa being published, and when?

I understand that prices we get for said players is arguably the biggest factor in all of this but I just don't understand why estimates and valuations play any part in FFP.

Example:

Lets assume at current we are FFP neutral (whatever that means, I am making it up)

We value Seri and Anguissa at a combined 50m and are planning on selling them in the Summer.

We use that valuation as what we can spend right now for 3 players and all costs involved in these 3 players.

Seri and Anguissa then both get injured and we are unable to sell either.

Where does that leave us in terms of FPP?



The Rational Fan

#9
Quote from: Statto on January 30, 2020, 02:50:49 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:36:42 PM
One of the biggest unknowns to how much we have available is what are the current official valuations of the players we own according to the DOF. The higher the player valuations the more money we have to spend this year, but the less money we have in the following years. If the DOF lies about the players valuations to get more money to spend, he can be sued by the owner. Of course, this DOF has no chance of being sued by the owner, so he hasd lots and lots of semi-honest options.

In the end, we can spend heaps more this year as long as the DOF keeps Seri and Anguissa book value at dishonestly high levels. The problem is that keeping the value high now, means it will fall more in the future. Tony Khan seems to be trying to do a mix of both trying now and in the future. In truth so much of Fulham's future depends on the prices we get for Anguissa, Seri and Mitro, so hope they all kick ass.

Perhaps he can't get sued by the owner, but he can get sent to prison for fraudulent accounting.

My understanding (which admittedly isn't perfect) is that essentially, if you spend £25m on a player (eg Anguissa) you can't just make that disappear in the accounts.

What you can legitimately do, however, is say you've swapped £25m in cash for an asset worth £25m, and treat the value of that asset as amortising over the term of his contract, ie, rather than losing £25m up front, you lose £5m per year over five years as the player's book value reduces.

And if necessary, you can use 'impairment' to bring forward some of those losses, eg, bringing them into a season where you've a much higher revenue to offset them.

But I'm not sure how TK or AM could just keep a player's "book value at dishonestly high levels."

When TK bought Rui Fonte after one season his book value would have been £5.5m without a revaluation downwards, if TK kept Rui Fontes valuation at £5.5m I consider that to be a dishonestly high level. For the record, TK impaired book value by £5.5m in 17/18 so wrote some player off and it was probably Rui Fonte. In the end, he cannot get sent to prison for fraudulent accounting, because the only person he defrauded his father. Its true that you cannot make the money disappear off the accounts, ultimately one-day Anguissa will leave and the cost must be bore Tk can do is delay or bring forward costs.

The Rational Fan

#10
Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 02:53:53 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:36:42 PM
Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 01:51:52 PM
To any experts on football and accounting specifically the realms of FFP, is anyone able to give a breakdown for Fulham financials with respect to FFP.

Everyone always mentions the restrictions from us just spending silly money which is fair enough but surely with the transparency of accounts we are able to know the exact amount we can spend on both wages and transfers without crossing it.

I'm just curious as FFP always seems really vague when really from my understanding of it, it should be much clearer and teams should have an exact understanding of how much is available as we know all the variables that contribute to Profit n loss.

Sorry for the ramblings I just thought with deadline day looming it would be great to understand what are financial picture looks like currently and in the near future. I know this is subject to huge variance depending on which league we see ourselves in.

Cheers to anyone who can enlighten   :Haynes The Maestro:

One of the biggest unknowns to how much we have available is what are the current official valuations of the players we own according to the DOF. The higher the player valuations the more money we have to spend this year, but the less money we have in the following years. If the DOF lies about the players valuations to get more money to spend, he can be sued by the owner. Of course, this DOF has no chance of being sued by the owner, so he hasd lots and lots of semi-honest options.

In the end, we can spend heaps more this year as long as the DOF keeps Seri and Anguissa book value at dishonestly high levels. The problem is that keeping the value high now, means it will fall more in the future. Tony Khan seems to be trying to do a mix of both trying now and in the future. In truth so much of Fulham's future depends on the prices we get for Anguissa, Seri and Mitro, so hope they all kick ass.

See this is where I get lost.

- Where are these valuations of Seri and Anguissa being published, and when?

I understand that prices we get for said players is arguably the biggest factor in all of this but I just don't understand why estimates and valuations play any part in FFP.

Example:
Lets assume at current we are FFP neutral (whatever that means, I am making it up)
We value Seri and Anguissa at a combined 50m and are planning on selling them in the Summer.
We use that valuation as what we can spend right now for 3 players and all costs involved in these 3 players.
Seri and Anguissa then both get injured and we are unable to sell either.
Where does that leave us in terms of FPP?

We don't get the individual player valuations, only the combined player book value in the Fulham Accounts with some guess work.

That will leave us with breaking FFP, but we will have to notify the EFL league immediately and say we cannot compile with FFP.

They would either accept "we accidental broke FFP" or tell us "we must sell players to compile with FFP or intentional break FFP".

Ultimately, we would probably have to sell players until we made £50m of profit (i.e. Betts, S.Sess, Cairney and Mitro combined).

If we keep values too high and they have further to fall, it may be in the owner's interest to be honest to ensure we have decent money in the future.

Statto

#11
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:56:30 PM
Quote from: Statto on January 30, 2020, 02:50:49 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:36:42 PM
One of the biggest unknowns to how much we have available is what are the current official valuations of the players we own according to the DOF. The higher the player valuations the more money we have to spend this year, but the less money we have in the following years. If the DOF lies about the players valuations to get more money to spend, he can be sued by the owner. Of course, this DOF has no chance of being sued by the owner, so he hasd lots and lots of semi-honest options.

In the end, we can spend heaps more this year as long as the DOF keeps Seri and Anguissa book value at dishonestly high levels. The problem is that keeping the value high now, means it will fall more in the future. Tony Khan seems to be trying to do a mix of both trying now and in the future. In truth so much of Fulham's future depends on the prices we get for Anguissa, Seri and Mitro, so hope they all kick ass.

Perhaps he can't get sued by the owner, but he can get sent to prison for fraudulent accounting.

My understanding (which admittedly isn't perfect) is that essentially, if you spend £25m on a player (eg Anguissa) you can't just make that disappear in the accounts.

What you can legitimately do, however, is say you've swapped £25m in cash for an asset worth £25m, and treat the value of that asset as amortising over the term of his contract, ie, rather than losing £25m up front, you lose £5m per year over five years as the player's book value reduces.

And if necessary, you can use 'impairment' to bring forward some of those losses, eg, bringing them into a season where you've a much higher revenue to offset them.

But I'm not sure how TK or AM could just keep a player's "book value at dishonestly high levels."

When TK bought Rui Fonte after one season his book value would have been £5.5m without a revaluation downwards, if TK kept Rui Fontes valuation at £5.5m I consider that to be a dishonestly high level. For the record, TK impaired book value by £5.5m in 17/18 so wrote some player off and it was probably Rui Fonte. In the end, he cannot get sent to prison for fraudulent accounting, because the only person he defrauded his father. Its true that you cannot make the money disappear off the accounts, ultimately one-day Anguissa will leave and the cost must be bore Tk can do is delay or bring forward costs.

Fraudulent accounting is a criminal offence, ie prosecuted on behalf of the state/Queen, so not something Shahid can help with except by paying for a good defence barrister.

But anyway, I don't know enough about accounting to know whether allocating the player a high value in the way you describe is a legitmate accounting technique or fraudulent. But I'm struggling to believe it would allowed under FFP (otherwise clubs would be encouraged just to spend freely and push all their losses 4 or 5 years down the road) and as you say it's just delaying the loss so not a viable long-term strategy.


charlieFFC

Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 03:21:00 PM
Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 02:53:53 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 02:36:42 PM
Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 01:51:52 PM
To any experts on football and accounting specifically the realms of FFP, is anyone able to give a breakdown for Fulham financials with respect to FFP.

Everyone always mentions the restrictions from us just spending silly money which is fair enough but surely with the transparency of accounts we are able to know the exact amount we can spend on both wages and transfers without crossing it.

I'm just curious as FFP always seems really vague when really from my understanding of it, it should be much clearer and teams should have an exact understanding of how much is available as we know all the variables that contribute to Profit n loss.

Sorry for the ramblings I just thought with deadline day looming it would be great to understand what are financial picture looks like currently and in the near future. I know this is subject to huge variance depending on which league we see ourselves in.

Cheers to anyone who can enlighten   :Haynes The Maestro:

One of the biggest unknowns to how much we have available is what are the current official valuations of the players we own according to the DOF. The higher the player valuations the more money we have to spend this year, but the less money we have in the following years. If the DOF lies about the players valuations to get more money to spend, he can be sued by the owner. Of course, this DOF has no chance of being sued by the owner, so he hasd lots and lots of semi-honest options.

In the end, we can spend heaps more this year as long as the DOF keeps Seri and Anguissa book value at dishonestly high levels. The problem is that keeping the value high now, means it will fall more in the future. Tony Khan seems to be trying to do a mix of both trying now and in the future. In truth so much of Fulham's future depends on the prices we get for Anguissa, Seri and Mitro, so hope they all kick ass.

See this is where I get lost.

- Where are these valuations of Seri and Anguissa being published, and when?

I understand that prices we get for said players is arguably the biggest factor in all of this but I just don't understand why estimates and valuations play any part in FFP.

Example:
Lets assume at current we are FFP neutral (whatever that means, I am making it up)
We value Seri and Anguissa at a combined 50m and are planning on selling them in the Summer.
We use that valuation as what we can spend right now for 3 players and all costs involved in these 3 players.
Seri and Anguissa then both get injured and we are unable to sell either.
Where does that leave us in terms of FPP?

We don't get the individual player valuations, only the combined player book value in the Fulham Accounts with some guess work.

That will leave us with breaking FFP, but we will have to notify the EFL league immediately and say we cannot compile with FFP.

They would either accept "we accidental broke FFP" or tell us "we must sell players to compile with FFP or intentional break FFP".

Ultimately, we would probably have to sell players until we made £50m of profit (i.e. Betts, S.Sess, Cairney and Mitro combined).

If we keep values too high and they have further to fall, it may be in the owner's interest to be honest to ensure we have decent money in the future.

I guess the take home advice then is, don't spend till it is cash in the bank.

Would be interesting to see historic case studies of all these FFP shenanigans.

The Rational Fan

#13
Quote from: Statto on January 30, 2020, 03:27:40 PM

Fraudulent accounting is a criminal offence, ie an offence against the Queen, so not something Shahid can help with.

But anyway, I don't know enough about accounting to know whether allocating the player a high value in the way you describe is a legitmate accounting technique or fraudulent. But what is clear is, as you say, that it's just delaying the loss so wouldn't be a prudent long-term strategy.

The Fulham accounts seem to be fairly honest in the past, so I don't think the player valuations will be much off in the accounts. But I'm sure he has a little wiggle room like is he going to impair the player valuation of Fabri down to zero or leave it at £3m, making it impossible to predict his budget. My guess now we have caught a bit of the gap and some good teams are getting relegated, he will use some of the wiggle room to go for promotion this season rather than next.

The Rational Fan

Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 03:35:02 PM

I guess the take home advice then is, don't spend till it is cash in the bank.

Would be interesting to see historic case studies of all these FFP shenanigans.

There is a podcast on it.

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/financial-fair-play/id1482886394?i=1000456143252

The biggest FFP shenanigans involve stadium sales, I would prefer to get relegated to League Two than split Fulham and Cottage ownership.


charlieFFC

#15
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 30, 2020, 03:36:47 PM
Quote from: Statto on January 30, 2020, 03:27:40 PM

Fraudulent accounting is a criminal offence, ie an offence against the Queen, so not something Shahid can help with.

But anyway, I don't know enough about accounting to know whether allocating the player a high value in the way you describe is a legitmate accounting technique or fraudulent. But what is clear is, as you say, that it's just delaying the loss so wouldn't be a prudent long-term strategy.

The Fulham accounts seem to be fairly honest in the past, so I don't think the player valuations will be much off in the accounts. But I'm sure he has a little wiggle room like is he going to impair the player valuation of Fabri down to zero or leave it at £3m, making it impossible to predict his budget. My guess now we have caught a bit of the gap and some good teams are getting relegated, he will use some of the wiggle room to go for promotion this season rather than next.

This last bit is what fascinates me on the topic.

We discuss everything under the sun on this forum and how it may affect the future of the club. yet arguably the biggest factor of finance is misunderstood by many (including myself).

At a glance you should be able to look at any club and understand where they sit on the FFP scale - do they need to sell players, do they have money to spend etc, yet you never hear anything regarding their status until they are getting a 12 point deduction or has gone into administration. Its madness!

Statto

Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 03:46:08 PM
At a glance you should be able to look at any club and understand where they sit on the FFP scale

Agree, whole thing should be more transparent

Perhaps not in real time, because that may prejudice clubs in negotiations, eg if everyone knows they're loaded

But IMO the rules (including accounting standards etc) should all be published and so should every club's accounts shortly after each season ends

charlieFFC

Quote from: Statto on January 30, 2020, 03:55:23 PM
Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 03:46:08 PM
At a glance you should be able to look at any club and understand where they sit on the FFP scale

Agree, whole thing should be more transparent

Perhaps not in real time, because that may prejudice clubs in negotiations, eg if everyone knows they're loaded

But IMO the rules (including accounting standards etc) should all be published and so should every club's accounts shortly after each season ends

Yep, would be extremely difficult to do in real time due to the issue you mentioned.

It wouldn't surprise me if there are math geniuses backing and laying long term bets on football clubs based off FFP.

It seems to me to be a cloudy area that if you can decipher a clubs state then you can heavily predict their intention in the coming seasons.


The Rational Fan

Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 04:16:13 PM
Quote from: Statto on January 30, 2020, 03:55:23 PM
Quote from: charlieFFC on January 30, 2020, 03:46:08 PM
At a glance you should be able to look at any club and understand where they sit on the FFP scale

Agree, whole thing should be more transparent

Perhaps not in real time, because that may prejudice clubs in negotiations, eg if everyone knows they're loaded

But IMO the rules (including accounting standards etc) should all be published and so should every club's accounts shortly after each season ends

Yep, would be extremely difficult to do in real time due to the issue you mentioned.

It wouldn't surprise me if there are math geniuses backing and laying long term bets on football clubs based off FFP.

It seems to me to be a cloudy area that if you can decipher a clubs state then you can heavily predict their intention in the coming seasons.

The accounts should be published on 31st July each year, it is crazy to let teams like Wolves join the premier league and then half way through the season see if they cheated to get there. Fulham and most other teams publish their figures around March of the next year, so already know next year's result.

Fulham's FFP position is we have money now, but we are burning it fast. Next season to get automatic promotion, we will have to finish ahead of teams with more expensive squads. The season after to get in the playoffs, we will have to finish ahead of teams with higher wages bill. The Fulham Accounts really show that this squad needs to get out of this division before in 2021/22 we are in the similar financial position to Middlesbrough and QPR.

Statto

But the statutory accounts are not the same as the FFP accounts.