One tweak to give us more comfort?

[General]

Firstly 4 clean sheets out of 5 is great, and well done to the team. We've shown a great resilience in some games to shut out or hold on for the win - Huddersfield springs to mind most. But the thing I have noticed is whilst we seem to with our front line score a goal, it's becoming more common to see us win by just the one goal. With three of those wins 1-0's I was wondering if the side would be better suited to one change - that of Stefan Johansen for Josh Onomah. I know Josh started slowly and has grown into the role and has started to impress, but I can't help feel that Johansen cuts more of a direct threat for us, both in a creative manner and also as someone with a forward-attacking mindset. Josh seems a bit too much of a soft touch and perhaps a stint out of the team fighting to get back in, with an emphasis on him needing to contribute more, would not only help his game develop (a bonus for us as he's our player), but also help us see out games more comfortably.

It means we'd essentially end up with the same midfield trio we had when we last got promoted, but at the time they dovetailed so well and seamlessly and in fairness none of them have really done that badly this season either. I just think with hector in Defence, Mcdonald back in form, having someone more aggresive in Johansen may actually help us - he's also capable of chipping in with the odd goal something Onomah doesn't have as much of in his locker. Could prove pivotal in the coming month.

[fulhamben]

Johansen has really lost his eye for goal. He was top scorer in his first season and has gone right down hill from there. But yes, still fancy him to score more than josh. That said when knockaert is fit I want bobby to go back into the midfield 3, someone who can run at players

[filham]

Onomah. Arter, Reid, Reed. Johansen, a lot of competition there with little to choose between the four of them.

[grandad]

Onomah. Arter, Reid, Reed. Johansen, a lot of competition there with little to choose between the four of them.

You can add O´Reily & DLT to that list.

[AnOldBrownie]

Stefjo is the bigger scoring threat...but I prefer Josh for everything else.

Not going to make a change hoping it'll result in more offense.

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[The Rational Fan]

Onomah. Arter, Reid, Reed. Johansen, a lot of competition there with little to choose between the four of them.

There is a strong case for fairly heavy rotation of the #8 spot in the team for triple match weeks. I'd play Stefjo next match and sub him with Arter if we are ahead in the second half, then play Onamah subbed with Reid against Barnsley.

[Woolly Mammoth]

Keeping 4 out of 5 clean sheets is no coincidence, when that happens we have only have to score one goal to win, sounds simple, but only because we now have a CB in the shape of Hector, who dominates the air with his height and physique and his ability to put in a tackle and to Marshall the back line is something that has been clearly obvious for a long time despite a number of people burying their heads in the sand making ridiculous suggestions that lack of height at the back was not an issue, despite our defence being bullied and dominated in the air over many weeks. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.
Of course we will not and cannot rely on keeping a clean sheet in every match, and we have to score more goals in a game which we did in the match v Huddersfield. Nevertheless we cannot rely just on Mitro who is worth his wait in gold, his presence alone terrorises defences. But we are third and that is something to build on. 

[AnOldBrownie]

Well...if Stefjo had finished his chance...or Cairney his, we'd have won 2-0.


We'll score enough to win.   That's all that matters.

[The Rational Fan]

Keeping 4 out of 5 clean sheets is no coincidence, when that happens we have only have to score one goal to win, sounds simple, but only because we now have a CB in the shape of Hector, who dominates the air with his height and physique and his ability to put in a tackle and to Marshall the back line is something that has been clearly obvious for a long time despite a number of people burying their heads in the sand making ridiculous suggestions that lack of height at the back was not an issue, despite our defence being bullied and dominated in the air over many weeks. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.
Of course we will not and cannot rely on keeping a clean sheet in every match, and we have to score more goals in a game which we did in the match v Huddersfield. Nevertheless we cannot rely just on Mitro who is worth his wait in gold, his presence alone terrorises defences. But we are third and that is something to build on.

Clean Sheets are valuable, but this season we haven't got on the score sheet in 20% of games and only got one goal in 60% of games, this is a majpr problem because even if we become the greatest defense of championship history in the remaining games to keep clean sheets in half the games and never concede more than one goal, then we still only get 86 points which is borderline for automatic promotion.

While improving to the greatest defense in championship history in our remaining games (i.e. less than a goal conceded every second games), gives us around a 50/50% chance of automatic promotion. If we improve to be one of the dozen best attacks in the championship scoring two goals per game, we get promoted as long as our defense stays the same. The best example is Norwich last season as their defense was much worse than ours this season, but their attack was a little better, which is poor as we have better-attacking players on paper.

The 1-0 formula works until teams give up trying to score and opposition play for 0-0. If we don't concede a goal between now and the end of the season (an almost impossible task), we still need to score in 66% games to guarantee automatic promotion. Alternatively scoring 2 goals every game is something our squad should be able to achieve and would guarantee promotion with a below-average defense (and we are well above average).

In the last 12 games, half the teams in the division have scored more goals than us, it is very very hard to avoid dropping points without scoring a lot.