The 25 / 25 / 50 rule

[simplyfulham]

--------
Full disclosure.
This isn't my idea and is unashamedly stolen from Michael Cox of the Athletic and Zonal Marking fame.
I heard this on his Zonal Marking podcast about clubs surviving the first season in the Premier League.
You can listen to here
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This is a theory about what is required to stay in the division and a sort of guideline to what to aim for to stay up.

The idea goes that as a promoted team, the odds are against you. You are more likely to lose games than win.
If you make an assumption you might lose 50% of your games, then the aim to win more or less half of the rest.

50% Lose
25% Draw
25% Win

It's not groundbreaking but it's a good way to look at it with some perspective.

So you've lost 19 games, so what to do with the other 19.

10 wins + 9 draws gives you 39 points. Which is practically guaranteed to keep you up.
9 wins + 10 draws gives you 37 points. Which still gives you a great chance of avoiding relegation.

Only two seasons in the past ten years of the premier league would see you relegated on 37 points.

2010/11 - Birmingham finished 18th place on 39.
2015/16 - Newcastle finished 18th place on 37.

With 1 win and 1 draw on the board, we just need to focus on finding results from a further 17 games.
Easier said than done? Probably.
Achievable? I reckon so.
Likely? Well...

I don't think we're far of digging our heel's in a little and earning a few more draws in games. We just need to stay upright and keep focusing on the bigger picture when we do inevitably lose games.

[The Rational Fan]

Its really a 27 game season (as 4 home and 7 away games won't get us points), to be certain to avoid relegation we have to win 33%, draw 33% and lose 33%. Otherwise, we need to hope that WBA, Sheffield and Burnley all have horrific seasons.

[Enfield]

--------
Full disclosure.
This isn't my idea and is unashamedly stolen from Michael Cox of the Athletic and Zonal Marking fame.
I heard this on his Zonal Marking podcast about clubs surviving the first season in the Premier League.
You can listen to here
--------


This is a theory about what is required to stay in the division and a sort of guideline to what to aim for to stay up.

The idea goes that as a promoted team, the odds are against you. You are more likely to lose games than win.
If you make an assumption you might lose 50% of your games, then the aim to win more or less half of the rest.

50% Lose
25% Draw
25% Win

It's not groundbreaking but it's a good way to look at it with some perspective.

So you've lost 19 games, so what to do with the other 19.

10 wins + 9 draws gives you 39 points. Which is practically guaranteed to keep you up.
9 wins + 10 draws gives you 37 points. Which still gives you a great chance of avoiding relegation.

Only two seasons in the past ten years of the premier league would see you relegated on 37 points.

2010/11 - Birmingham finished 18th place on 39.
2015/16 - Newcastle finished 18th place on 37.

With 1 win and 1 draw on the board, we just need to focus on finding results from a further 17 games.
Easier said than done? Probably.
Achievable? I reckon so.
Likely? Well...

I don't think we're far of digging our heel's in a little and earning a few more draws in games. We just need to stay upright and keep focusing on the bigger picture when we do inevitably lose games.

Nothing like stating the bleeding obvious.
Someone probably paid a consultant a fortune to come up with this. 

[filham]

Nothing new here, 40 points has always been the target, 10 wins +10 draws.
The bad news is that realistically you should write off the 12 matches with the top 6 which means you only have 26 matches left to get the 40 points, that is only six defeats other than against top six teams.

We have already lost against five teams not in the top six.