Player's under Contract - Championship rebuild - what do we need?

[Skatzoffc]

I wouldn't assume the likes of Mitro, Anguissa and Tete will be off in the event of relegation.They all have long contracts and are exactly the type of players we would need in the Championship.

It's time to say cheerio to Kebano, Ream, Odoi, Christie, Le Marchand, Johansen, Knockaert, Bettinelli, Kamara, Mawson, Hector, Seri and Bettinelli. Have I missed anyone ?

We need to build around the existing first team regulars that are contracted to the club and bring in players with clear and obvious potential to play in the Premier League.

I would pretty much agree with this but keep Hector as cover and maybe StefJo, although he will want to play, so that could be a problem.

I'd keep Stefjo too tbh.
Working his socks off, as usual, according to a QPR acquaintance of mine.

[simplyfulham]

Question for some of the people who keep a far sharper eye on the finances than I do, as it currently stands, does it look like we will have money to spend on transfers if we go down?

The tl;dr summary is: we definitely have to make one big sale, but probably only one sale. We won't have much money to reinvest unless we make more.

Thanks for the detailed response.

This isn't me questioning your logic or numbers at all, but if we are in a place now where we'd need to generate £15-20m in sales for next season, how come we were able to spend somewhere in the region of £30-40m last season in the championship after the first relegation?

I know you explained the boost from the Sessegnon sale but surely the rumoured £100m spend from the the 18/19 season was still an issue for us (or at least I would have thought).

[Dougie]

This isn't me questioning your logic or numbers at all, but if we are in a place now where we'd need to generate £15-20m in sales for next season, how come we were able to spend somewhere in the region of £30-40m last season in the championship after the first relegation?

I know you explained the boost from the Sessegnon sale but surely the rumoured £100m spend from the the 18/19 season was still an issue for us (or at least I would have thought).

Fair question. The answer is: that £30-40m is amortised across the length of the contracts of those players we brought in. So although Hector was £8m, it only counts as £2m against our 19/20 balances because he signed a 4 year contract. Onomah's £5m is £1.7m/year for three years.

Cavaleiro, BDR and Knockaert will have only had their loan fees amortised against 19/20 balances, although I believe those were substantial.

Altogether, it's more like £13.5-14m against that season.

The reason we can't go out and do that again is because we still have all of those players, and those players' transfer fees continue to be an ongoing expense every year. It's the same reason we couldn't spend much last summer: those players we signed in 2018 are still on our books, therefore their transfer fees cost us as much in 20/21 as they did in 18/19.

Obligatory spreadsheet:



All the fees are guesswork, but essentially we need to get to a point where Total Amort + loan minus transfer fees is the same in 21/22 as it was in 19/20, working on the assumption that we skate fairly close to FFP every year. You can also see how it tapers across the next two years to account for reduction in parachute payments.

The way to think of it is: we can go on another spending spree until we've paid off (finished amortising) our old purchases.

Edit: just realised I left Harry Arter off this. Oh well - that's good news.

[simplyfulham]

Dougie that's magic. Thanks for dumbing down enough for me to understand, that makes much more sense now so thank you!

[filham]

Just looking at that list it seems obvious we need to start moving on a few players starting with Seri, Mawson and Le Marchand.

[Robbie]

Sack everyone. Hire kids. Drop through to division two. Do a Bournemouth.

[LC]

The if we do go down there's no reason why we can't keep all of the following:

Tete, Tosin, Robinson, Reed, BDR. Then we also have Rodak, Cairney & Mitro.

I think those are a good spine for our team next season. We'll need to add some quality who are capable of playing PL football. But with the above I think we would have a top championship team.

As things stand we still have a reasonable chance of staying in the PL

[The Rational Fan]

Panic is Insanity. It stupid to talk of sacking the manager, clean out the squad, and doing a total rebuild. We aren't even down yet, and this squad would stay up, if in the premier league next season or even in two seasons time.

Sanity is to work out, i) how we can keep being a yo-yo team, and ii) improve for 2022/23.

Currently, our 22/23 Squad of 15 players is:
GK-1: Rodak;
DF-6: Tete, Hector, Tosin, Kongolo, Robinson, Bryan;
MF-4: Reed, Anguissa, Cairney, Onamah;
FW-4: Knockaert, Reid, Mitro, Cav

That is close to a full squad, we need 2 GKs, 3 DFs, 2 CMs, and 3 FWs, before returning to the premier league. But for the Championship preseason: Betts, Fabri; Christie, Odoi, Mawson; Stefjo, Seri; Kamara, Maja, and Kebano can fill those squad spots, as all of them are better than average championship players. A few loans with options to buy and we are done.

[Skatzoffc]

I don't believe we need a clear out at all tbh.
We have a good squad for the Championship imo.

I don't see why the likes of Tete would leave either. Or that BDR is not good enough.
If we let Mitro go, "because he wants to go", I'd try to keep Maja and BDR up front.

My worry is that we will buy further players of the CAV/Knockeart quality, (ie Lemina), at over inflated prices when they are barely Champ quality let alone EPL standard.
These are luxury players that amount to playing with a man down and no end product in relation to their cost imo.
Tbh, Lemina has such an ego, I doubt he will play in the championship anyway. 

Stick with Reed and bring back Stefjo. Players who leave everything on the pitch every game.

[Moltobueno]

I want to see some youngsters getting more minutes - Jasper, Carvalho, Sessegnon, Stansfield etc.

[Jimmy Hill]

We have options on Lemina, Aina, Maja and Lookman I think. Plus one more Cm and we probably would be in good shape. Raise the money for them from Anguissa and Seri.

[colham]

I don't see the logic in a wholesale clearout.  We did that when we came down under Mad Magath and nearly kept going to League One.  We need fresh faces but have the core of a good Championship squad.

[The Rational Fan]

I don't see the logic in a wholesale clearout.  We did that when we came down under Mad Magath and nearly kept going to League One.  We need fresh faces but have the core of a good Championship squad.

We are looking strong for next season:
Fabri is our 3rd most valuable GK; after Rodak and Betts
Odoi is our 6th most valuable CB; after Hector, Tosin, Mawson, Kongolo, and MLM
Odoi is our 6th most valuable FB; after Tete, Christie, Robinson, Bryan, and S.Sess
Stefjo is out 6th most valuable CM; after Reed, Anguissa, Seri, Cairney, and Onamah
Kebano is our 6th most valuable FW; after Mitro, Cav, Reid, Knockaert, and Kamara

In addition, if we sell Christie, Anguissa, and Seri; then TK with the FFP accountant might find a way to get Aina, Lemina, and Maja either buying them or on loan, plus a couple of extra player on loan. If TK can find the money, then even we can get promoted even with some poor choices made with the loan players that we bring in.

Potential our strongest side starting the season in the Championship since 2000-2001.

[RaySmith]

Whatever the reasons, and whoever is to blame, and FFP seems to be a factor, and we did manage to sort the defence out after our terrible start to the season, we haven't signed good enough creative and attacking  players who can do a decent job in the Prem.

Not managing to bring in any of these kinds of players, apart from Maja, who hasn't really had much of a chance to show what he can do, in the Jan window was, again crucial, as not bringing anyone in in this window- then i think it was defenders we needed- last time we were in the Prem , for whatever reason.

Though, we probably have a decent side for the Ch,, though someone said bring back Stef Jo, but as someone else said - why would he want to come back to Fulham, when he keeps getting shipped out  after helping us win promotion, but is then deemed not good enough? especially when he is doing so well at QPR.

[Dougie]

We are looking strong for next season:
Fabri is our 3rd most valuable GK; after Rodak and Betts
In addition, if we sell Christie, Anguissa, and Seri; then TK with the FFP accountant might find a way to get Aina, Lemina, and Maja either buying them or on loan, plus a couple of extra player on loan. If TK can find the money, then even we can get promoted even with some poor choices made with the loan players that we bring in.

Fabri and Christie are both on contracts that expire in the summer, so expect them to walk on free transfers. Seri might have a suitor willing to pay a million Euros but that's probably it.

Lemina is potentially a realistic target if Southampton are still willing to sell for £6m, and we sell Anguissa for a fair price, and we maybe sell Johansen for a couple of million. But only if no one coming up want to give him a chance, and we are willing to pay him the £40-60k he presently earns in the Championship.

Although I'd consider Lemina the better player, I wonder whether there are more goals in Stef though, and whether that's a premium in this side that appear unable to hit a cow's arse with a banjo in the Prem.

Aina and Maja are only feasible if someone comes in for Mitrovic.

[I Ronic]

Am I right in thinking last time we went down we really had the bare bones of a squad? Hector couldn't play until January and it was Scott's first full season?
We'll have a reasonable Championship side. SK's business plans will all be long term. I mean let's be honest would any of us brought extra training space or started a new stand. I believe holding on to our championship players was deliberate as was the loaning out of certain players. TK's picks have got better and better. I wouldn't be surprised if we managed to hold on to one or two of the loanees.
If we go down, then the goal has got to be an  automatic spot next time.

[SuffolkWhite]

Am I right in thinking last time we went down we really had the bare bones of a squad? Hector couldn't play until January and it was Scott's first full season?
We'll have a reasonable Championship side. SK's business plans will all be long term. I mean let's be honest would any of us brought extra training space or started a new stand. I believe holding on to our championship players was deliberate as was the loaning out of certain players. TK's picks have got better and better. I wouldn't be surprised if we managed to hold on to one or two of the loanees.
If we go down, then the goal has got to be an  automatic spot next time.

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