Is Bournemouths position misleading?

[General]

They're top of the league and haven't lost a game, something we're reminded of constantly by multiple conversations being started about the same topic re them or our former manager (he's left - get over it)..

But something dawned on me, which may not have crossed many people.

Firstly 12 games unbeaten is 12 games, no discredit to them.

But they only have 1 win more than us and 2 draws more. We've only lost 3 games (which considering how inconsistent weve been is saying something)..

But the fact that I stumbled across is that in their first 12 games they've not played a single team who is currently higher than 8th (QPR) or West brom- a 2-2 draw.

In fact when you look at the teams they've played a large number of them are actually quite well entrenched in the bottom half of the table.

In no particular order they've played

Bristol City 11th
Sheffield utd 13th
Luton 10th
Peterborough 23rd
Cardiff 20th
QPR 8th
Barnsley  22nd
Hull 21st
Blackpool 15th
Birmingham 19th
Notting forest 16th  and
West brom (2nd)

So, what does that mean if anything?

I remember doing an analysis of our build up run of games in the run in to the play off final vs Brentford and whilst they'd had better results, they actually did averagely or as expected if not worse against the quality of opposition they faced when compared to us who had a harsher set of fixtures but only just marginally worse results.

I said then, that if that info played out - alongside other relevant information like goals scored/conceded and possession stats etc then actually we would be in with a good chance of winning the final, an analysis which was published by friendsoffulham prior to kick off and subsequently proved right.

Now I know we're 1/4 - 1/3rd of the way through the season, but given the comparisons are we actually building up steam quite nicely and actually in reality in a better position?

We've played, for example, a lot of the top 10 teams so far, minus the top 2 and beaten a majority of them comfortably minus conventry and additional loss to Luton.

Our season so far includes

Qpr 4-1 w 8th
Coventry 4-1 l 4th
Swansea 3-1 win 17th
Bristol City 1-1 d 11th
Reading 2-1 L 7th
Birmingham 4-1 w 19th
Blackpool 1-0 l 15th
Stoke 3-0 w 5th
Hull 2-0 w 21st
Millwall 2-1 w 14th
Huddersfield 5-1 w 6th
Boro 1-1 d 12th

5 of the top 8 (we'd make it 6) in our first 12 games.

Not only have Bournemouth played 6 of the bottom 8 in their first 12, the significance is not only on their results but on their goal difference being made to look relatively resolute at the back and decent up front? But as the next portion of the season kicks on I imagine with sterner tests they may start to drop points.

Another interesting stat is that they've only scored more than 2 goals in a game once vs Barnsley and having conceded in 6 of their games so far, given the average quality of their opposition to date and the fact we do quite well when on form and we've been missing key players - Tete, carvalho and had an unreliable keeper in goal in gazzaniga think we should all be taking stock and feeling confident going forward. On top of which if precedence means anything then the fact we've tended to turn up and be relatively free scoring against top of the table sides so far, means there's a chance we will equal at least their average or around 2 goals maximum scored or better it. Given the added bite of it being a Parker reunion and mitrovic in fine form, we could be in for quite the game.

Seri going to AFCON will be a blow, but with cairney fingers crossed), carvalho and even kongolo on way back from injury as well as Tete we are arguably going to be getting stronger.

Not to mention we have good depth in our squad.

Whilst I'll admit for me the jury is still out on marco and we do seem a bit vulnerable at the back under him and blow hot or cold too often for my liking, I'd be thinking it's OK to have those slight blips considering how little time he's been at the club. It won't work fr the premiership but let's not get ahead of ourselves we're not there.

[FFC1987]

Just a very simple point on why they are top. In games where they don't play well/are under the cosh, currently, they get a point or a marginal win. We don't. Which is why we're joint third and not top 2. I said this weeks ago about why I'm not sold like some on why we're a top 2 side. Finding draws and wins from poor performances isn't our forte currently. Its not good enough but on the bright side, after a wobble, we're still within 2 points of it. Bournemouth and Brom have just been better at grinding out results from poor performances than we have. We folds too easily.

I like the analysis on paper, but our poor results come from on paper, sides we should be beating outside of top 6.

[bencher]

The Championship being the Championship, Bournemouth will lose games they would be expected to win, just like we have. I agree with the analysis in the OP to some extent, but you have to give them credit for not losing any of the banana skin games so far. We haven't yet learnt how to grind out results, as said above, which Parker did have us doing in 19-20.

[RaySmith]

They're top because of the number of points they've got - but things can change quickly in this  division.

[MartyFFC]

Let's see whether they can do it on a cold Tuesday night in Stoke tomorrow

[70sPimlico]

Lets see how they do if they lose 3 crucial players - Tete, Fab & TC.

& lets see how we do, when all 3 are available....which may be Wednesday

[The Rational Fan]

Lets see how they do if they lose 3 crucial players - Tete, Fab & TC.

& lets see how we do, when all 3 are available....which may be Wednesday

Good Point, the table will probably stay the same if the injury rate stays the same with Bournemouth and WBA barely injured, with significant injuries to Fulham. The injury rate and player availability of Bournemouth, WBA and Fulham will change most likely in our favour, which will advantage FFC but if FFC injuries get worse automatic promotion will be very tough.

[bill taylors apprentice]

A team in a false position?
But by the time they play any top teams their confidence will be sky high and give them an extra boost when playing them?
Or
When a couple of bad results come along the confidence will fold and they will be found out ?

Who knows, but it wont last......... I hope!

[FFC1987]

A team in a false position?
But by the time they play any top teams their confidence will be sky high and give them an extra boost when playing them?
Or
When a couple of bad results come along the confidence will fold and they will be found out ?

Who knows, but it wont last......... I hope!

I think the false position narrative is fair to some extent in terms of being a discussion point. GNev and Carra were discussing United only last week in the same regards comparing them to say Arsenal, who have played more of the top 6 teams (big teams, not so much form teams) and pondered whether United and Arsenal would be on similar points after there soon to be tougher schedule.

I don't think it is to be honest. They feel like they'll walk the league this year and it'll be between us and Brom on who gets second. Something I'm not confident about but as posters like Statto point out, I'm naturally pessimistic about us, often correctly unfortunately.

[JimOG]

Just a very simple point on why they are top. In games where they don't play well/are under the cosh, currently, they get a point or a marginal win. We don't. Which is why we're joint third and not top 2. I said this weeks ago about why I'm not sold like some on why we're a top 2 side. Finding draws and wins from poor performances isn't our forte currently. Its not good enough but on the bright side, after a wobble, we're still within 2 points of it. Bournemouth and Brom have just been better at grinding out results from poor performances than we have. We folds too easily.

I like the analysis on paper, but our poor results come from on paper, sides we should be beating outside of top 6.

Watching Bournemouth highlights the number of attacking players they are getting in the box is impressive. One of my concerns isn't just everyone's - what if Mitro gets injured - but how isolated he is as our target man. Carvalho knows how to get close to link up (and therefore score) but too many of our other players are a distance away to lend a helping hand. Pinning eg Kebano & Wilso (Cav) to the wings stretches opposition defences but if it's Reed/Seri coming through they're not exactly lethal finishers. I'd prefer a 4-4-2 with Robinson given freedom up the left & Carvalho/Muniz in closer to our striking genius. (Honestly his two goals were incredible on Sunday)

[PaulJ123]

Bournemouth do look good but you look at their team, and player for player you could argue their first XI is as strong as ours.

They'll definitely be up there and I think they'll get automatics.

[General]

A team in a false position?
But by the time they play any top teams their confidence will be sky high and give them an extra boost when playing them?
Or
When a couple of bad results come along the confidence will fold and they will be found out ?

Who knows, but it wont last......... I hope!

It's the hope that it lulls them into a false sense of importance and ability which could be argued is what potentially happened to Brentford.

[rebel]

Bournemouth's position is they set out to not lose matches, they are going to draw a lot of matches as we did last season, that's not going to be enough to get promotion. They have also lost their best player for some time.

[filham]

All games in the championship are tight and three points against a low team can be difficult to obtain so give Bournmouth full credit for being five points ahead of us, had we performed against lowly Blackpool and Reading we could be a point above them , but we didn't.
Our next match against lowly Cardiff is another test the 3 points will have to be earned against a team who will probably park the bus and make it difficult for us to score a single goal.

[I Ronic]

I think the other thing to consider is experience. SP has played and managed in the Championship also his whole career has been in English football. Marco's playing and managing career has mostly been in Portugal. His managerial time here has been in the Premiership.
Whenever the Championship is discussed on this board it's generally agreed it's a slog.
Personally I think Silva is a more adaptive manager. So ultimately will win through.

[General]

Do people think it's fair to say that we have a stronger squad and in many positions first eleven? Just looked through their official site first team.. not convinced they have better, even with the free signing recently of a Ireland International.

[FFC1987]

In a one off match, I think we likely just about shade the best eleven although its marginal in some areas. If we played them 10 times, I'm not so certain we'd come out on top.

[PaulJ123]

Do people think it's fair to say that we have a stronger squad and in many positions first eleven? Just looked through their official site first team.. not convinced they have better, even with the free signing recently of a Ireland International.

I think our first XIs are quite even, though David Brooks is a huge loss for them (not that that matters considering what he's going through).

We're pretty even teams, same as WBA so largely down to the manager for me who will come out on top.

[General]

Do you think it makes a difference having players like Wilson who used to play for Bournemouth in a positive or negative way for us and similarly for mitro who arguably it seems had a pretty poor relationship with Parker? I imagine either Parker will have mitro figured out and the likes of cahill will nullify him, or mitros youth  willingness to prove a point and being in form, alongside quite a dynamic frontline count do wonders.

That said, if Parker sees how our defence can be exposed again it may see us get hammered.

[spoonffc]

Bournemouth are far exceeding their XPG and points, two ways of looking at that. One is that they're lucky and their luck will run out. Another is their managing to get a lot of points without hitting top form.