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Easy to use predictor

Started by Southcoastffc, March 03, 2022, 10:56:10 AM

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Southcoastffc

I've just done this and, even being prudent, the outturn is a comfortable result.

https://www.dorset.live/sport/football/football-news/bournemouth-catch-fulham-take-championship-6697404?int_source=mantis_rec&int_medium=web&int_campaign=more_like_this

Team and Pts
Fulham 101
Bournemouth 94
Blackburn 82
Sheffield Utd 80
Huddersfield 79
QPR 77

Just a bit of meaningless fun.
The world is made up of electrons, protons, neurons, possibly muons and, definitely, morons.

Andy S

I think 101 points could well be wishful thinking

Motspur Park

I had us winning the league with 93 points, 2 ahead of Bournemouth with Blackburn, Boro, Forest and Huddersfield in the play offs. Rangers winning on the last day of the season but missing out to Forest by 2 point.


Deeping_white

1 Fulham 101 (could make the case for it being more like 99 though by turning two draws into losses)
2 Bournemouth 79
3 Nottm Forest 79
4 Middlesbrough 79
5 Huddersfield 77
6 Luton Town 76
7 Sheffield Utd 75
8 Blackburn 74
9 QPR 71

I had a lot of  the top 6 drawing to one another hence the mad final day scramble. I guess in hindsight Bournemouth will probably get more than 79 but I saw them drawing a lot in true Parkerball style when taking each fixture individually

Southcoastffc

Quote from: Deeping_white on March 03, 2022, 11:43:18 AM
1 Fulham 101 (could make the case for it being more like 99 though by turning two draws into losses)
2 Bournemouth 79
3 Nottm Forest 79
4 Middlesbrough 79
5 Huddersfield 77
6 Luton Town 76
7 Sheffield Utd 75
8 Blackburn 74
9 QPR 71

I had a lot of  the top 6 drawing to one another hence the mad final day scramble. I guess in hindsight Bournemouth will probably get more than 79 but I saw them drawing a lot in true Parkerball style when taking each fixture individually
Much as I'd love it, I can't see us finishing 22 points above Bournemouth but I really do like where you've got QPR.   049:gif 049:gif 049:gif
The world is made up of electrons, protons, neurons, possibly muons and, definitely, morons.

70sPimlico

I went very negative, drawing a lot, just to see. We came 3rd.

Huddersfield are the problem for me. But, any weekend where we win and they draw, pretty much messes it up for them.



Motspur Park

Quote from: 70sPimlico on March 03, 2022, 12:12:42 PM
I went very negative, drawing a lot, just to see. We came 3rd.

Huddersfield are the problem for me. But, any weekend where we win and they draw, pretty much messes it up for them.

I thought I was conservative..... but even so I cannot see how we would miss out on autos even by allowing mostly draws. That would put us in relegation form, though I do appreciate you tried it just as an exercise.

Sting of the North

Quote from: 70sPimlico on March 03, 2022, 12:12:42 PM
I went very negative, drawing a lot, just to see. We came 3rd.

Huddersfield are the problem for me. But, any weekend where we win and they draw, pretty much messes it up for them.

That must indeed have been very negative, as it sounds extremely unlikely. Huddersfield for example would need to gain 12 points on us in only 11 games (2 less than us as well). That is quite the feat, to say the least. Even if they win all their remaining games we would finish above them if we deteriorate to some way below our current pace. Just a few draws for Huddersfield out of those 11 games and it will be close to impossible unless we show relegation form for the last 13 games.

But of course, especially under a 3 point system many scenarios will be mathematically possible for a long time.

Jeroen

Quote from: 70sPimlico on March 03, 2022, 12:12:42 PM
I went very negative, drawing a lot, just to see. We came 3rd.

Huddersfield are the problem for me. But, any weekend where we win and they draw, pretty much messes it up for them.


Huddersfield does seem to have the 'easier' run in of the lot.

H   Peterborough
A   West Brom
A   Millwall
H   Boscombe (#2)
A   Hull
H   Luton (#6)
H   QPR (#5)
A   Middlesbrough
H   Barnsley
A   Coventry
H   Bristol

A couple of tough away games in there, but they are on a run. Having said that EVEN if they win all their games they get 33 points. with our goals difference this means that we need 22 points from our last 13 games. (1.7) We do still have 5 of the current top 7 to play