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“Pulling a Forest”

Started by ChesterTheTabby, October 30, 2022, 03:25:11 PM

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Sting of the North

Quote from: Hatch007 on November 01, 2022, 11:07:45 AM
They'll be an absolute fire sale if they are relegated. One helluva gamble to take with FFP

FFP doesn't really allow for a fire sale in their case I think, with them having overspent on so many players. If they have a bad season and get relegated it is unlikely many (if any) players will fetch a fee that is higher than what Forest paid. Players such as Nico Williams or Gibbs-White who would generally command decent fees would likely be practically unsellable from an FFC perspective because the sale would more or less ruin them. That is also without considering if anyone can match the contracts given to those players.

Just look at Cavaleiro and Knockaert for example. From an FFC perspective it's cheaper to keep them, and in the best case scenario loan them out to offset part of the wage costs.

I believe Forest have taken an enormous gamble, that may end up with them in league 1 like Derby.

HV71

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts ( apologies to Asotosyios )

Somerset Fulham

I would imagine that as many players are allowed will be shipped out to Olympiakos on loan which will soften the blow to Forest somewhat.


Jims Dentist

Quote from: Sting of the North on November 01, 2022, 11:36:29 AM
Quote from: Hatch007 on November 01, 2022, 11:07:45 AM
They'll be an absolute fire sale if they are relegated. One helluva gamble to take with FFP

FFP doesn't really allow for a fire sale in their case I think, with them having overspent on so many players. If they have a bad season and get relegated it is unlikely many (if any) players will fetch a fee that is higher than what Forest paid. Players such as Nico Williams or Gibbs-White who would generally command decent fees would likely be practically unsellable from an FFC perspective because the sale would more or less ruin them. That is also without considering if anyone can match the contracts given to those players.

Just look at Cavaleiro and Knockaert for example. From an FFC perspective it's cheaper to keep them, and in the best case scenario loan them out to offset part of the wage costs.

I believe Forest have taken an enormous gamble, that may end up with them in league 1 like Derby.
Good Post Sting.
In the relegation scenario the two best buys would look to be O'Brien and Toffolo from Huddersfield.
Always bargains to be had there.

Hatch007

Quote from: Sting of the North on November 01, 2022, 11:36:29 AM
FFP doesn't really allow for a fire sale in their case I think, with them having overspent on so many players. If they have a bad season and get relegated it is unlikely many (if any) players will fetch a fee that is higher than what Forest paid. Players such as Nico Williams or Gibbs-White who would generally command decent fees would likely be practically unsellable from an FFC perspective because the sale would more or less ruin them. That is also without considering if anyone can match the contracts given to those players.

Just look at Cavaleiro and Knockaert for example. From an FFC perspective it's cheaper to keep them, and in the best case scenario loan them out to offset part of the wage costs.

I believe Forest have taken an enormous gamble, that may end up with them in league 1 like Derby.
I see your point. I was thinking even if they took a hit on some of the transfer fees, getting the wages off their books would still help towards FFP compliance perhaps ...

Twig

Quote from: Hatch007 on November 04, 2022, 10:34:47 PM
Quote from: Sting of the North on November 01, 2022, 11:36:29 AM
FFP doesn't really allow for a fire sale in their case I think, with them having overspent on so many players. If they have a bad season and get relegated it is unlikely many (if any) players will fetch a fee that is higher than what Forest paid. Players such as Nico Williams or Gibbs-White who would generally command decent fees would likely be practically unsellable from an FFC perspective because the sale would more or less ruin them. That is also without considering if anyone can match the contracts given to those players.

Just look at Cavaleiro and Knockaert for example. From an FFC perspective it's cheaper to keep them, and in the best case scenario loan them out to offset part of the wage costs.

I believe Forest have taken an enormous gamble, that may end up with them in league 1 like Derby.
I see your point. I was thinking even if they took a hit on some of the transfer fees, getting the wages off their books would still help towards FFP compliance perhaps ...

No because if they sell at big losses they will take a huge hit.  Don't forget the signing on fees (plus costs) will be amortised over, typically, 4 years and so if they go down there will be 3 years of the signing fees accruing.