Relegation Chances

[bencher]

Somewhat off topic - but if things continue as they have been this season to date, how would Marco Silva stack up against Jean Tigana? Both managers took over underachieving squads and with some useful additions turned them into dynamite in the Championship, then the season after saw them as established PL teams (PG). 

[hovewhite]

I'm just enjoying seeing us top half of the premier league and only looking up.

[Hugh Gentry]

Its time for us to stop looking over our shoulders. There are so many rubbish teams in this league this season and we are definitely not one of them. We will finish in the top half and I have been saying that since week three.
I'm sick of reading talk about how we are one or two injuries away from catastrophe.... Weak bench....blah blah blah....
For once it's time we all just kicked back and enjoyed watching a quality outfit turn out every game day and totally run the show. The boys are living life in the prem and we should be too.

I am totally with you on this, fed up listening to people, particularly on the Fulhamish podcast, going on about how 17th would be a great finish, and that's after the Palace game!!

We should now be looking up and not down. The quality of this team is way beyond half of this league. I said after 15 minutes of the Liverpool opner, "there is no way this team is going down", it was obvious as soon as they came out with the attitude they did, and now they believe in each other even more.

We have to be looking at top half.

[b+w geezer]

We have to be looking at top half.

And a serious run in the FA Cup. In a one-off, our strongest 11 has some chance against any opponent and high chances against most. Yes it's been a while, but such seasons do occur from time to time. Take advantage when they do.

[F(f)CUK]

I assume that Europe means top 4, because surely we have a better than 2% chance of finishing 1 to 2 places higher.

[Colton F.C.]

In view of these heartening statistics in relation to our Premier League survival, it would do no harm to push the boat out and have a go at the FA Cup.  Hull, despite their lowly position are probably no mugs so I am hoping for a near full strength side. 

[H4usuallysitting]

I'm thinking top 6

[Cambridge Pete]

I think that the team is doing brilliantly. The management team and players appear truly united and I have everything crossed for the points to continue to be accumulated. However, after 63 years of supporting the Whites I have this pessimistic streak. Like others I will only be confident when we are mathematically safe. Most seasons after Christmas one team goes into freefall (fingers crossed not us). To all fellow Whites I say :Happy New Year: and hopefully a top ten finish and a good cup run.

[Somerset Fulham]

Think we are getting a little carried away here, we will hit another rough patch at some point but we absolutely do not have to fear relegation.

That said, you all know how this works. It would be of zero surprise to find us beaten by bottom of the table Southampton tomorrow just to burst the bubble.

[Marcus]

Think we are getting a little carried away here, we will hit another rough patch at some point but we absolutely do not have to fear relegation.

That said, you all know how this works. It would be of zero surprise to find us beaten by bottom of the table Southampton tomorrow just to burst the bubble.

It is not exactly a bubble though, lost our previous two, albeit in heartbreaking fashion to two of the media darlings, Saturday has all the makings of a Fulhamish outing, but they keep proving us wrong, one last big effort to see out one of the most amazing calendar years in our history...

[Somerset Fulham]

We did lose to those two but that in no way burst any bubble, we battered one of them and were dead unlucky against the other. Both were expected to easily overpower us. Its not the same as getting done one nil by a Villa or a Forest.

That said, I of course would like us to absolutely hammer Southampton and propel us even further toward that 40 point mark in record time.

[Cookie6262]

I still find myself thinking about relegation and staying up but I think a win Saturday against Southampton will be the turning point for me and I will start looking upwards instead of down.

[Londonfranky]

In the racing post in there half-time review they think were a good price at 9/1 to be relegated, obviously written before the Palace game, but their logic was if Mitrovic gets injured we struggle, I thought we would do ok, after last season, but we've been  far better than I thought, for me it proves what  good coach Marco Silva is, he's improved players that many people thought would struggle in the premiership,

[Cobh Fulham Fan]

Mitro played a couple of games injured before the world cup and he was as good as not playing at all, in fact I think he skipped the very last game, yet we still survived, though there is no denying we need his goals in the long term.

anyone who is still looking down at this point is a lost cause and cant be helped. The only disappointment I can contemplate this season, is if we dont make a top six place!

[Palhinha Colada]

We still have home matches against five of the current bottom six, starting with Southampton on Saturday. Everything is lined up for us to (comfortably) stay up, but you need to actually play and win the matches. I think this team is steady enough to do so.

Would be lovely to get a win and get to 25 points from 17 played. We'd probably only need three wins from the final 21 to stay in the league from there. Hard to believe we wouldn't find 5-6 draws in the other 18, but I'd rather look at 50+ points as possible.

[Jim©]

for me it proves what  good coach Marco Silva is, he's improved players that many people thought would struggle in the premiership,

Don't underestimate the effect that Boa is having too- I've heard from a couple of people that he is doing loads of 1-2-1 coaching with individuals and you can see shades of it with a few of them definitely.
The biggest fear for me is losing our management team, not whether we'll stay up or not.

[b+w geezer]

he is doing loads of 1-2-1 coaching with individuals and you can see shades of it with a few of them definitely.

Neeskens sprigs most obviously to mind.

The biggest fear for me is losing our management team, not whether we'll stay up or not.

Not wishing to tempt fate, but would expect Marco to see out 2023. After that, if he continues successful, the risk keeps increasing and unfortunately (as the Potter case shows) even an exemplary owner is powerless. Marco's team would be lost too, notably Boa and the match analyst.  But that simply comes with the territory of all but the very largest clubs, meaning no point in fretting I suppose -- just succession planning.

[Jim©]

he is doing loads of 1-2-1 coaching with individuals and you can see shades of it with a few of them definitely.

Neeskens sprigs most obviously to mind.

The biggest fear for me is losing our management team, not whether we'll stay up or not.

Not wishing to tempt fate, but would expect Marco to see out 2023. After that, if he continues successful, the risk keeps increasing and unfortunately (as the Potter case shows) even an exemplary owner is powerless. Marco's team would be lost too, notably Boa and the match analyst.  But that simply comes with the territory of all but the very largest clubs, meaning no point in fretting I suppose -- just succession planning.

Quite true B&W, I suppose the flip side is that for him to go somewhere good, we'd need to have done exceptionally well...

[Deeping_white]

Another satisfying update to the Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the Premier League season...
Key points:
- projected finish up to  10th
- probability of relegation < 1%
- probability of European qualification > 5%!
- Arsenal now favourite to win the league
(1/2) pic.twitter.com/D6R57hfJel

— @Cottage Analytica (@CottageAnalytic) December 31, 2022

[Andy S]

As far as the FA Cup goes forget it there is no point in risking any of our best players to get two or three rounds into the competition. Should we still be in the competition after a few rounds then we can have a go. Then if the gods are with us so be it. I don't think there is any chance of us getting relegated even if we lost Mitro and Palhina but let us finish comfortably. If we sunk from our present position and finished 17th we would almost be certainly be relegated next time around.