Relegation Chances

[Colton F.C.]

The ten best performances by promoted teams in the Premier League:

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/best-newly-promoted-premier-league-teams-ever-by-points

FFC not in the frame yet!

[F(f)CUK]

Still think that this underestimates us. This suggests that from our current position to the end of the season we will only gather 3 more points than the bottom 3.

[The Rational Fan]

Somewhat off topic - but if things continue as they have been this season to date, how would Marco Silva stack up against Jean Tigana? Both managers took over underachieving squads and with some useful additions turned them into dynamite in the Championship, then the season after saw them as established PL teams (PG).

If Marco Silva stays up (which he will), then he has massively out performed Jean Tigana. Jean Tigana's squad cost far more than any of the team finished below him. Until the Fulham Accounts are released, we don't know how much the squad cost compared to other squads, but I am certain we finish ahead of a squad with both a higher Intamgible Asset Value and Wage Bill (like Wolves or Leicester).

[SP]

I think the football Gods are finally summoning Everton to the Championship with an injury to one of their better players, Alex Iwobi.

[hovewhite]

I think the football Gods are finally summoning Everton to the Championship with an injury to one of their better players, Alex Iwobi.

also they are rubbish at goodison.

[Blawarmy]

Somewhat off topic - but if things continue as they have been this season to date, how would Marco Silva stack up against Jean Tigana? Both managers took over underachieving squads and with some useful additions turned them into dynamite in the Championship, then the season after saw them as established PL teams (PG).

If Marco Silva stays up (which he will), then he has massively out performed Jean Tigana. Jean Tigana's squad cost far more than any of the team finished below him. Until the Fulham Accounts are released, we don't know how much the squad cost compared to other squads, but I am certain we finish ahead of a squad with both a higher Intamgible Asset Value and Wage Bill (like Wolves or Leicester).

Plus look at the transformation of Mitro!  He's turned him into one of the best strikers in Europe atm. Parker thought Cav was a better option! Good luck Bruge! I see they lost 3.1 this weekend. And only 44 percent possession. That'll never do!

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[Craven_Chris]

I just found this thread and saw the nice comments from Deeping_White and Craven Mad about my Twitter content (Cottage Analytica), so thank you very much for those kind words.

Since this thread started we have rattled off a series of wins which has reduced the odds of Fulham getting relegated to almost nil (0.16% in the last Monte Carlo run I did).

I think the most notable collapse to Premier League relegation that I can recall is that of the 10/11 Blackpool team that LR mentioned in the opening post. I believe they had 25 points from their first 18 games (so 3 less than Fulham) but its also worth noting that they got relegated with an unusually high 39 points, and the various models I am running suggest it is likely to be a figure in the low 30s this time around that is required to avoid relegation.

I am naturally pessimistic though, and my own feeling is that we probably have a league position that is a little higher than our play and form would suggest is expected, but even with a drop in form and a run of bad luck, I think we will be well clear of the bottom 3 now!

[Terry Towling]

I just found this thread and saw the nice comments from Deeping_White and Craven Mad about my Twitter content (Cottage Analytica), so thank you very much for those kind words.

Since this thread started we have rattled off a series of wins which has reduced the odds of Fulham getting relegated to almost nil (0.16% in the last Monte Carlo run I did).

I think the most notable collapse to Premier League relegation that I can recall is that of the 10/11 Blackpool team that LR mentioned in the opening post. I believe they had 25 points from their first 18 games (so 3 less than Fulham) but its also worth noting that they got relegated with an unusually high 39 points, and the various models I am running suggest it is likely to be a figure in the low 30s this time around that is required to avoid relegation.

I am naturally pessimistic though, and my own feeling is that we probably have a league position that is a little higher than our play and form would suggest is expected, but even with a drop in form and a run of bad luck, I think we will be well clear of the bottom 3 now!

You have not factored in the magic pundits and their insight : Fulham are a yoyo team and Mitro can't score in the Prem" crunch them numbers....

[SG]

Given the number of teams down the bottom I'd be surprised if teams more than say 36 points to be safe. Three wins is all we need to be safe in my view but we should be aiming for mid table at least. I keep thinking the bubble will burst but the team continue to upset the odds. Long may it continue