Fulham's success is confusing... Here's why

[WhiteJC]

Fulham's success is confusing... Here's why
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Fulham surprisingly, in their return season back in the Premier League, are pushing towards the European places.

Jon Mackenzie has analysed their underlying numbers and suggests they are overperforming. But can it last?

[WindyCity]

.......'yawn'.....

Statistics are like a bikini.  What they reveal is interesting.  But what they hide is vital.

I am totally fine with FFC performing better against lower half table teams than top half.  If I recall correctly, last time up in the PL FFC struggled against many teams around us and beneath us and were thusly relegated as a result.  I think we actually took some points off bigger clubs, but failed miserably against teams we might have been expected to take points.

[bill taylors apprentice]

So we are doing worse against the top half teams than bottom half teams.

Err! as we are a mid table team that's not rocket science.

He explained how teams such as Arsenal broke through our press and scored which is to be expected more often from better teams, also not rocket science! 

Vaguely interesting but a bit obvious really.

[Drewry66]

Think there is a point to the analysis. Clearly this season our weakness has been against teams at the top although been very unlucky in a number of games. Important to look at it to see how we progress.

The question is do we stop the high press against top half teams? Roy Hodgson beat the best in Europe sitting deep with two banks of four and extreme organisation. We are actually pretty good breaking as well with decent fast wingers.

However.....more like Parkerball and do we lose something against the lesser teams not playing week in and week out in the same way?

Also think it depends on the team in the top half. Although United beat us twice they struggle with a high press and we prob should have won both games. Arsenal, city and even Brighton are a different story and perhaps a different tactic would have worked better.

Also look at other teams. Brighton are brilliant in the high press and beat top teams with it. Brentford on the other hand give teams possession and hit on the break. Both have been better than us against top teams.

No right answer then but I wonder if in the odd game against specific teams we sit deeper and try and hit on the break with a Dan James type striker?? Worth a thought

[Lighthouse]

It is a month old this video. Not that it changes the overall hypothesis.

[DadCreature]

The premise is stupid- of course almost all teams do better against teams below them in the standings.  Especially when you are mid-table and there's a good sample of teams both above and below.   

More interesting is that FFC have consistently out-scored our xG per game.  As we keep that up, it reveals something good either about our players or our coach (or both).  I don't know what it is, but it's interesting to see such sustained performance beating the expected odds.

[LittleErn]

Our success is only partly due to tactics - individual performances have also been a revelation and contributed a great deal. Silva's management style must be involved in that. The question is - can these personal improvements be maintained?

[ffc73]

Has it not been ever so?

I feel that over the years we might get the occasional and unexpected win against a 'big' team but our previous long Premier League stint was achieved by getting points from those around and below us.

[toshes mate]

I have never been confused by a league table since it is about outcomes of games with rules about who gets points from a particular outcome, who doesn't and what to do with goals for and goals against when points accumulated are equal. It is easy to check the accuracy of such a table according to official records of results. 

Some human beings write about the games, the players involved, particular incidents, events and may make prognostications based upon their feelings. At the beginning of the season prognistications may be very far removed from reality and they tend to get better towards the end of a season. There are easy to suss reasons for this disparity, but it doesn't stop some authors trying to explain the impossible to explain. Some even try to produce theories based upon statistics but since they do not have a control group the statistics are of purely entertainment value and nothing else. 

What would be more interesting would be why referees and officials are of such poor quality in some sports as compared to others and how decision making could be improved to the benefit of fairer competition. There seems to be a reluctance to even discuss such matters with those who pay to watch these sports yet another idiosyncrasy.

[WindyCity]

So we are doing worse against the top half teams than bottom half teams.  Err! as we are a mid table team that's not rocket science.  He explained how teams such as Arsenal broke through our press and scored which is to be expected more often from better teams, also not rocket science!  Vaguely interesting but a bit obvious really.

Good post, nothing like Captain Obvious to explain things to us, especially being right in the table middle.  I suspect his same statistical formulas had Leicester "over performing" too during their league win.  Funny stuff.......