Will we make Europe?

[S.F.Sorrow]

Sadly I can't see that happening. But if we avoid injuries/suspensions and Muniz keeps scoring goals at his current rate... who knows?

Unfortunately a good run often ends after an international break and Sheff U is the kind of game we often make a mess of... If we win that one convincingly and Muniz has another great game we will at least have something to fight for over the next couple of weeks. But I honestly think 8th may be a bit too optimistic.

[btffc]

We really need at least 7 from our next 3 to have any realistic sort of chance and 3 of those need to be from Newcastle. All 3 are winnable so if we come out like we have for the last month then we have a shot. Do that and I'll really start believing. The teams in front of us haven't been in great form and have a lot of tough matches in the run in but we need to take care of business first.

[Lordedmundo]

I did vote for 8th place (ever the optimist!) - but it will be tough!

We would almost certainly need to beat Newcastle and West Ham.

Plus also most (if not all) of: Sheffield United, Forest, Palace, Brentford, Luton

Winning all those would give us 59 points - which was enough for 7th place in 2021-22, but only 9th place last season (when 60 points was needed for 8th)

[Nick Bateman]

Fulham are perfectly capable of qualifying for the Europa League. We have 38 points to West Ham's 44 in 7th place. I was chuffed when Villa held them to a draw recenly and when we play them, it's a 6-pointer!

I regard the Hammers in a false position and the teams below them or not much better. It's possible our arch-rivals Chelsea will pick up points with the most penalties awarded to them this season they are receiving a lot of help. but name any other team that has beaten Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham and thrashed two others 5-0 and that tells the true story of our chances.

Fulham are on form and the BEST we've ever been!

[SerbianLad]

As I said in the Sheffield United thread, if we win both of our next matches I'd be pretty confident of us reaching Europe (providing that the 8th place gives Europe which is almost certain, but I doubt we can get 7th place, so if Enlgland doesn't secure that 8th spot we have 0 chance).

After that we'd probably need 3 or 4 more wins. No disrespect to Luton, Crystal Palace or Brentford, but looking at this season we should be winning those matches, especially as the best of those three teams this season (Palace) is a home match. I think we'll win 2 of those 3 matches at least. If we do that + win those first two matches that means we'd likely need 1 or 2 more wins.

West Ham is a team we've outplayed all three times we've played since Marco Silva joined. We were blatantly robbed in the first two and we beat them 5-0 in the third. I believe we can beat them again.

If we win those first to matches, the Newcastle game would be somewhat similar to the Spurs game, i.e. we would be in great form and playing against a side we normally struggle against at home. Maybe we could break that hoodoo too, buoyed by the 3 wins in a row streak.

Finally the last two games I haven't given a comment yet, Liverpool and Man City, both at home. We always seem to play really well against Liverpool and we got a draw against them in each of our last three home games I believe (the Parker season, opening game last season and cup game this season). Definitely a game in which we stand a chance. Machester City... I don't know. Considering we play them in the penultimate game of the season I think it will be a tough ask to get anything, unless Liverpool and Arsenal get in very good form and Man City secure title before our game against them.

So all in all, if we beat Sheffield and Forest, I could see us doing something like this:
Wins:Sheffield United,Forest, Newcastle,West Ham, 2 or 3 of Palace/Brentford/Luton = 18 or 21 points
Draw:Liverpool = 1 point
Losses:none or 1 of Palace/Brentford/Luton, Man City

Points total:57 or 60 points.

Even if we lose to Liverpool (again if we win those first two matches which is the key imo), I think we can get 56 to 59 points.

57 points was enough for an 8th place finish in the last 7/10 seasons. 60 was enough in 9/10.

Tough ask definitely, but with 2 wins out of the first two matches, I'd be confident we could do it.

[Drewry66]

As I said in the Sheffield United thread, if we win both of our next matches I'd be pretty confident of us reaching Europe (providing that the 8th place gives Europe which is almost certain, but I doubt we can get 7th place, so if Enlgland doesn't secure that 8th spot we have 0 chance).

After that we'd probably need 3 or 4 more wins. No disrespect to Luton, Crystal Palace or Brentford, but looking at this season we should be winning those matches, especially as the best of those three teams this season (Palace) is a home match. I think we'll win 2 of those 3 matches at least. If we do that + win those first two matches that means we'd likely need 1 or 2 more wins.

West Ham is a team we've outplayed all three times we've played since Marco Silva joined. We were blatantly robbed in the first two and we beat them 5-0 in the third. I believe we can beat them again.

If we win those first to matches, the Newcastle game would be somewhat similar to the Spurs game, i.e. we would be in great form and playing against a side we normally struggle against at home. Maybe we could break that hoodoo too, buoyed by the 3 wins in a row streak.

Finally the last two games I haven't given a comment yet, Liverpool and Man City, both at home. We always seem to play really well against Liverpool and we got a draw against them in each of our last three home games I believe (the Parker season, opening game last season and cup game this season). Definitely a game in which we stand a chance. Machester City... I don't know. Considering we play them in the penultimate game of the season I think it will be a tough ask to get anything, unless Liverpool and Arsenal get in very good form and Man City secure title before our game against them.

So all in all, if we beat Sheffield and Forest, I could see us doing something like this:
Wins:Sheffield United,Forest, Newcastle,West Ham, 2 or 3 of Palace/Brentford/Luton = 18 or 21 points
Draw:Liverpool = 1 point
Losses:none or 1 of Palace/Brentford/Luton, Man City

Points total:57 or 60 points.

Even if we lose to Liverpool (again if we win those first two matches which is the key imo), I think we can get 56 to 59 points.

57 points was enough for an 8th place finish in the last 7/10 seasons. 60 was enough in 9/10.

Tough ask definitely, but with 2 wins out of the first two matches, I'd be confident we could do it.

Careful...you're making me believe with that breakdown!

 

As you say the next two are absolutely crucial to have any chance for me. If we win them both we are right in there with a chance and my no vote will turn to a very cautious yes. If we get even close to it we have had a brilliant and exciting end to the season. Bring it on!

[Zoppa77]

Would be absolutely brilliant but I feel we have not been consistent enough. We absolutely destroy Spurs yet could not put Wolves away. Top half requires better.
I hope I'm wrong (I frequently am). Either way, should be a fun watch.

[Bassey the warrior]

It's not inconceivable if we avoid any major injuries but it's a bit of a long shot.

[General]

I want to believe and so I shall - 8th.

I don't think we will... but in similar optimism I went for 8th. I think 7th is expecting too much. I think 8th is also unrealistic, but most likely of the two.

[Thailand Mick]

As I said in the Sheffield United thread, if we win both of our next matches I'd be pretty confident of us reaching Europe (providing that the 8th place gives Europe which is almost certain, but I doubt we can get 7th place, so if Enlgland doesn't secure that 8th spot we have 0 chance).

After that we'd probably need 3 or 4 more wins. No disrespect to Luton, Crystal Palace or Brentford, but looking at this season we should be winning those matches, especially as the best of those three teams this season (Palace) is a home match. I think we'll win 2 of those 3 matches at least. If we do that + win those first two matches that means we'd likely need 1 or 2 more wins.

West Ham is a team we've outplayed all three times we've played since Marco Silva joined. We were blatantly robbed in the first two and we beat them 5-0 in the third. I believe we can beat them again.

If we win those first to matches, the Newcastle game would be somewhat similar to the Spurs game, i.e. we would be in great form and playing against a side we normally struggle against at home. Maybe we could break that hoodoo too, buoyed by the 3 wins in a row streak.

Finally the last two games I haven't given a comment yet, Liverpool and Man City, both at home. We always seem to play really well against Liverpool and we got a draw against them in each of our last three home games I believe (the Parker season, opening game last season and cup game this season). Definitely a game in which we stand a chance. Machester City... I don't know. Considering we play them in the penultimate game of the season I think it will be a tough ask to get anything, unless Liverpool and Arsenal get in very good form and Man City secure title before our game against them.

So all in all, if we beat Sheffield and Forest, I could see us doing something like this:
Wins:Sheffield United,Forest, Newcastle,West Ham, 2 or 3 of Palace/Brentford/Luton = 18 or 21 points
Draw:Liverpool = 1 point
Losses:none or 1 of Palace/Brentford/Luton, Man City

Points total:57 or 60 points.

Even if we lose to Liverpool (again if we win those first two matches which is the key imo), I think we can get 56 to 59 points.

57 points was enough for an 8th place finish in the last 7/10 seasons. 60 was enough in 9/10.

Tough ask definitely, but with 2 wins out of the first two matches, I'd be confident we could do it.

As I said in the Sheffield United thread, if we win both of our next matches I'd be pretty confident of us reaching Europe (providing that the 8th place gives Europe which is almost certain, but I doubt we can get 7th place, so if Enlgland doesn't secure that 8th spot we have 0 chance).

After that we'd probably need 3 or 4 more wins. No disrespect to Luton, Crystal Palace or Brentford, but looking at this season we should be winning those matches, especially as the best of those three teams this season (Palace) is a home match. I think we'll win 2 of those 3 matches at least. If we do that + win those first two matches that means we'd likely need 1 or 2 more wins.

West Ham is a team we've outplayed all three times we've played since Marco Silva joined. We were blatantly robbed in the first two and we beat them 5-0 in the third. I believe we can beat them again.

If we win those first to matches, the Newcastle game would be somewhat similar to the Spurs game, i.e. we would be in great form and playing against a side we normally struggle against at home. Maybe we could break that hoodoo too, buoyed by the 3 wins in a row streak.

Finally the last two games I haven't given a comment yet, Liverpool and Man City, both at home. We always seem to play really well against Liverpool and we got a draw against them in each of our last three home games I believe (the Parker season, opening game last season and cup game this season). Definitely a game in which we stand a chance. Machester City... I don't know. Considering we play them in the penultimate game of the season I think it will be a tough ask to get anything, unless Liverpool and Arsenal get in very good form and Man City secure title before our game against them.

So all in all, if we beat Sheffield and Forest, I could see us doing something like this:
Wins:Sheffield United,Forest, Newcastle,West Ham, 2 or 3 of Palace/Brentford/Luton = 18 or 21 points
Draw:Liverpool = 1 point
Losses:none or 1 of Palace/Brentford/Luton, Man City

Points total:57 or 60 points.

Even if we lose to Liverpool (again if we win those first two matches which is the key imo), I think we can get 56 to 59 points.

57 points was enough for an 8th place finish in the last 7/10 seasons. 60 was enough in 9/10.

Tough ask definitely, but with 2 wins out of the first two matches, I'd be confident we could do it.

my take is slightly different for the next four games, if we can win three which includes beating Newcastle and West Ham which I have always said we probably need to do then I think we have a chance. I don't think we need to win all four on the trot although that would be fantastic.I believe Chelsea will be 7th looking at their fixtures.

[Roberty]

Points deductions could be a factor. There are several clubs who have to face the beak.

[RaySmith]

Keep playing to win every game, which I'm sure Marco and the players fully intend, and see how it pans out at the end of the season.

[btffc]

Points deductions could be a factor. There are several clubs who have to face the beak.

Only Everton still face a points reduction this season. Anyone else would be next year.