Tosin OK but Raul?????

[Willham]

You really need to look how the xg is worked out,

For example he mat have faced few 0.8 xg shots last season and let them in but as it was few it made little difference, this season he may have faced a lot of 0.8 xg shots and continued failing to save them but as it's a lot, this time it's affected his xg a lot,

Then you could also argue is the reason the shots he faces on the regular are higher because the defence is giving them easier chances?

The overall xg could even be lower in this sense, imagine last season we faced a lot of 0.4 to 0.6 xg shots and saved them all, this season we face very little 0.5 xg shots or lower but face many 0.8 or higher, that would mean this seasons overall xg can be lower but we've faced harder shots,

Not saying I disagree with you about Leno or anything just that xg for goalkeepers is not as black and white as it seems, it is quite hard to judge a goalkeeper off stats alone.

[Angus Telford]

I mean, you could make an equally strong argument that the reason we conceded less last season was because Palhinha was better - which he clearly was -

He was?? How do you figure???

Because I've watched him week in, week out both seasons mate. Last season he was POTS, he won't be this year. And whilst xG etc are useful aids, they're massively inferior to human observation. Which is why we're managed by Marco Silva and not ChatGPT.

[Chi_FFC]

I mean, you could make an equally strong argument that the reason we conceded less last season was because Palhinha was better - which he clearly was -

He was?? How do you figure???

Because I've watched him week in, week out both seasons mate. Last season he was POTS, he won't be this year. And whilst xG etc are useful aids, they're massively inferior to human observation. Which is why we're managed by Marco Silva and not ChatGPT.

I've done the same (watch him week in, week out that is) and think he's been just as good this season as last and the stats all line up with that assessment. In fact, Joao's numbers this season in just about every relevant statistical category are equal to or better than last season. Now tbf, you're not the only person I've seen say this re Joao, and I have a couple theories as to why that's the case. First, I think for lack of a better way of putting it the "newness" has kind of worn off wrt to Joao. Seeing what he did last year was amazing, now it's kind of old hat. Second I think among some supporters there may be some residual hurt feelings over his flirtation with Bayern last summer. Finally (and by far most importantly) I think the squad has been strengthened in some key areas and as such, Joao isn't quite as vital to the team as he was last year. Specifically, Lukic has developed into a player who can perform competently in Joao's place when he's out (though obviously not at the same level) and Calvin Bassey's speed/athleticism/physicality are a huge upgrade over what we had last season in Tim Ream.

And one last thing, if Joao has in fact been worse this season than last it would add even more evidence to support the contention that our defense in front of Leno has been better. Because if we were seeing the improvement in all the relevant numbers that measure the performance of the defense in front of the goalkeeper (xG, SoTA, PSxG) with Joao actually performing worse, that would suggest a huge improvement from the back four.

[filham]

Right now Bassy and Diop are our first choice central defenders for next season with Ream as cove. The new central defender to be signed has to show he is better than these three.

[Angus Telford]

And one last thing, if Joao has in fact been worse this season than last it would add even more evidence to support the contention that our defense in front of Leno has been better. Because if we were seeing the improvement in all the relevant numbers that measure the performance of the defense in front of the goalkeeper (xG, SoTA, PSxG) with Joao actually performing worse, that would suggest a huge improvement from the back four.

Or it could just mean those statistics are of limited utility and don't tell the whole story. I mean, taking the debate full circle, Diop outperforms Tosin on almost all defensive metrics (tackles, blocks, dribbles past, etc) which again undermines the explanation that the current back 4 (ie, without Diop) has performed massively better than last season's.

[peachcobbler]

Dont really see much point in keeping the following:

Raul
Broja
Tosin
Vini
Diop

We need to sign a decent striker with experience, likely Muniz will be number 2, but I would like to see more often 2 strikers on the pitch, with Stansfield coming back as the squad player.

Diop again yesterday showed why he is not for this team, guy just goes backwards and looks like bambi on ice most of the time. Bring in a decent CB to partner Bassey.

Vini/Raul - Cant cut it in the Prem, time to offload

It was his first game since Feb and he played miles better in the second half, a little bench rust is 100% to be expected and he wasn't making tons of mistakes, just conservative with the ball (not like anyone was lighting the world on fire passing in the first half).

So with Tosin gone, you will cut Diop and leave no one on the squad in that position. We'd then either need to go sign to RCB or a for sure starter and move LDF into the senior squad? What madness is this?

We have no business cutting Diop, he was solid last year, and his defense stats are pretty close to Tosin in almost ever way. Tosin beats him in the air, and from a defense standpoint that is about it. Tosin also is a more aggressive passer, can't argue with that, but as a result he is in the bottom half of passing completion at mid distance passes cause when he gets caught with the ball he rifles it into the midfield where no one can handle it. He also gets disposed 6 times more per 90 minutes than Diop.

We should keep Diop, sign someone with aerial skills  let the two fight for the position, with Diop as the default starter if the new player does not impress.

[SerbianLad]

I might be in minority, but I thought Diop was excellent against Palace. He completely shut down Palace's attackers for pretty much the entire match. The goal we concded was unlucky, as the Palace player shot the ball very quickly after he recieved it, leaving next to no time for Diop to block him. He blocked 2-3 shots that were certain goals as well.

He did try to play it too safe very often even for his standards but I don't blame him as he was out of the side for a very long time.

[Drewry66]

I might be in minority, but I thought Diop was excellent against Palace. He completely shut down Palace's attackers for pretty much the entire match. The goal we concded was unlucky, as the Palace player shot the ball very quickly after he recieved it, leaving next to no time for Diop to block him. He blocked 2-3 shots that were certain as well.

He did try to play it too safe very often even for his standards but I don't blame him as he was out of the side for a very long time.

Completely agree. From Fulhamish:

With five clearances, two blocked shots, two interceptions and two tackles, Diop picked up a 7.3 and was statistically the best Fulham player on the pitch.

Not bad considering the guy hasn't even been in the squad for months. I never thought there was much between him and Tosin. I think Tosin edged it as a bit better in the air and better passing forwards (although massive risk/reward with Tosin for that) and his passing was probably the only reason he was in the team over Diop. Diop all round is better defensively in my opinion and as others have mentioned above. There was a period last season when he was keeping Tosin out of the team that he was outstanding defensively. I remember West Ham comments of 'what have we done letting him go' when he was playing really well for us. He looked very rusty especially under a very good press but the whole team was shocking first 30 and he is the only one with the excuse of not playing at all for two months. Played it way too safe but he's human and not his strength and probably worried about making a mistake with so little game time. The guy is a very capable defender and when he believes in himself he can pass forward better. Think Marco had a word as he was much better in that respect after the mini team talk. He's actually very good at carrying the ball progressively when not passing forward. I hope we go out and like Bassey last year improve in that position to kick on but as he showed when he had a run last year Diop is an incredibly good defender and I think him and Bassey can do very well together when called upon. 

[AJW48361]

Definitely stick with Diop who's first Job is to Defend and who with Marco will improve his Footballing side of the Game.

[Chi_FFC]

And one last thing, if Joao has in fact been worse this season than last it would add even more evidence to support the contention that our defense in front of Leno has been better. Because if we were seeing the improvement in all the relevant numbers that measure the performance of the defense in front of the goalkeeper (xG, SoTA, PSxG) with Joao actually performing worse, that would suggest a huge improvement from the back four.

Or it could just mean those statistics are of limited utility and don't tell the whole story. I mean, taking the debate full circle, Diop outperforms Tosin on almost all defensive metrics (tackles, blocks, dribbles past, etc) which again undermines the explanation that the current back 4 (ie, without Diop) has performed massively better than last season's.

It undermines absolutely nothing. Most of the individual defensive stats you reference tell us very little about an individual players performance (without a lot more context) and tell us next to nothing about a teams overall defensive performance. Again, the stats that actually do tell us something meaningful about how a defense is performing (xG, PSxG, SoTA) all show that Fulham's defense (at least in front of the GK) has been meaningfully (not massively) better this season.

[Angus Telford]

It undermines absolutely nothing. Most of the individual defensive stats you reference tell us very little about an individual players performance (without a lot more context) and tell us next to nothing about a teams overall defensive performance. Again, the stats that actually do tell us something meaningful about how a defense is performing (xG, PSxG, SoTA) all show that Fulham's defense (at least in front of the GK) has been meaningfully (not massively) better this season.

Ok. So just so I'm clear...

xG, which potentially (depending which source/methodology is used) makes no distinction between say a bullet header and a soft, looping flick-on if they're both hit from the same spot and headed goalward, gives a substantially perfect indication of a GK's performance.

And purely from that GK's performance, you can infer accurately how the back four are performing. You have to disregard the rest of the outfield players, but that's fine.

However, intricate individual data like tackles won and how many times a player was dribbled past, tells us "next to nothing" about that individual's performance (unless it's Palhinha, in which case they confirm he's been just as good this season as last).

Have i got that right?

Feels you're being somewhat selective.

Let's just say we disagree on the utility/accuracy of all these stats in this context and leave it there.   

[filham]

Priority for the summer is to sort the striker situation, we have far too many and it seems that only Muniz is worth
having.
Vinnie, Jimminez, and Broja should be looking for work in the lower leagues.

[Chi_FFC]

Ok. So just so I'm clear...

xG, which potentially (depending which source/methodology is used) makes no distinction between say a bullet header and a soft, looping flick-on if they're both hit from the same spot and headed goalward, gives a substantially perfect indication of a GK's performance.     

Never said that, mate. xGA tells us something about the quality of chances allowed by the defense in front of the GK. The advanced stat that tells us about a GK's shot stopping performance is PSxG(expected goals based on how likely it is the GK will save a shot)-actual goals against. Last season our PSxG-GA was +9.1, tied for best in the league. This season, it's -1.7, 12th in the league. That is a substantial drop off in GK performance.

And purely from that GK's performance, you can infer accurately how the back four are performing. You have to disregard the rest of the outfield players, but that's fine.   

I can't tell whether you're intentionally misrepresenting my posts or just don't understand what the stats can tell you. To repeat myself, stats like xGA/PSxG/SoTA in concert tell us about how the defense in front of a GK is performing, independent of goalkeeping. And comparing those stats this season to last shows that the defense in front of the GK has been better this season. And yes, the defense in front of a GK obviously does include more than just the back 4. However I've focused on the back 4 as the reason for this improvement because that's where we've seen the most change, with Castagne replacing Tete and Bassey (eventually) replacing Ream. And as I've noted before, the relevant stats (xGA/PSxG/SoTA) are all considerably better in the dozen or so matches when we've seen that back 4 deployed. So yes, I believe that the primary reason for the improved defensive performance is an improved back 4.

But if you think there's another reason for the improvement (based on your observations or analysis of stats) I'd be more than willing to read your thoughts. I know you think Joao has been worse this season than last so you clearly don't think he's the reason for any team wide defensive improvement.

[Angus Telford]

But if you think there's another reason for the improvement (based on your observations or analysis of stats) I'd be more than willing to read your thoughts.

I don't think we have (significantly) improved defensively, that ought to have been clear as the central point I made at the outset. We've conceded more goals, achieved less points and will finish lower in the league. Given you think the defense has improved, Joao has improved, and we're on course to score just as many goals as we did last year, i can only assume you attribute the season-on-season decline entirely to Leno. I acknowledge Leno has performed worse this year, but beyond that, disagree.

[Chi_FFC]

But if you think there's another reason for the improvement (based on your observations or analysis of stats) I'd be more than willing to read your thoughts.

I don't think we have (significantly) improved defensively, that ought to have been clear as the central point I made at the outset. We've conceded more goals, achieved less points and will finish lower in the league. Given you think the defense has improved, Joao has improved, and we're on course to score just as many goals as we did last year, i can only assume you attribute the season-on-season decline entirely to Leno. I acknowledge Leno has performed worse this year, but beyond that, disagree.

Does goalkeeping alone explain why we're not in as good of a position this season as last? Probably not. But it sure does explain a hell of a lot. If we could have somehow teleported the 22-23 version of Bernd Leno to this season we'd be talking about a Fulham side that had conceded ~10-11 fewer goals and had a GD of ~+6 right now.

[Surlyc]

I might be in minority, but I thought Diop was excellent against Palace. He completely shut down Palace's attackers for pretty much the entire match. The goal we concded was unlucky, as the Palace player shot the ball very quickly after he recieved it, leaving next to no time for Diop to block him. He blocked 2-3 shots that were certain goals as well.

He did try to play it too safe very often even for his standards but I don't blame him as he was out of the side for a very long time.

I doubt you're in the minority. Diop looked rusty at first, but he's certainly no worse than Tosin and is under contract.

[SerbianLad]

I might be in minority, but I thought Diop was excellent against Palace. He completely shut down Palace's attackers for pretty much the entire match. The goal we concded was unlucky, as the Palace player shot the ball very quickly after he recieved it, leaving next to no time for Diop to block him. He blocked 2-3 shots that were certain goals as well.

He did try to play it too safe very often even for his standards but I don't blame him as he was out of the side for a very long time.

I doubt you're in the minority. Diop looked rusty at first, but he's certainly no worse than Tosin and is under contract.

Not sure, I've seen quite a lot of people slate Diop. All things considered, I thought he did great against Palace and I wouldn't even be against him being our starting centreback next season if he proves himself in the remaining games.