January Silly Season Transfer thread 2024/25

[Jim©]

We 💯 need a striker in this window we miss way too many easy chances. Let's show some ambition. Vinicius will be off in Jan wages off the books . As for Rashford even if we did have 80 million and pay his 350,000 a week wages no thanks .

Given Nelson is likely to be out until March and hasn't rattled the net, I'd rather we unearthed a young Willian or a Cherki who would contribute to our goal tally from out wide...

He has scored twice for us this season, Traore once (3 assists), Wilson 3 times, Iwobi 5 (3 assists), ESR (rarely wide I know- has three goals. Thats a good return as a group. Willian for example only scored 5 at most per season with us. (same as wilson last season who also got 9 assists!)

[FFC1987]

How haven't we signed anyone yet!?

[jayffc]

Edit** Ah I see you retracted your question before I had replied Angus. It seems you were wondering how many teams finish 7th with a striker only on 12 goals (Rauls current projection according to Goals per game I assume) with the suggestion presumably that it's likely very rare? I'm assuming you looked it up and retracted which is reasonable - perhaps you saw what I did below - hopefully it gives ya some belief in its possibility.**

It didnt happen last year but

Brighton Finished 6th in 22/23 with a top scorer of 10 Goals (Macallister)
Chelsea 3rd in 21/22 top scorer on 10 goals (Mount)
Arsenal 5th in 21/22 Top scorer: 11 (Saka)
West Ham 7th in 21/22 Top scorer : 12 (Bowen)
West Ham 6th in 20-21: top scorer on 10 (antonio)
Utd and Wolves scraped it in 18/19 6th and 7th with 13 goal top scorers each (Pogba & Jiminez)
Chelsea 6th 17/18 - 12 Goal (Hazard)
Burnley 7th 17/18 - 10 Gols (Wood)

Will leave it at that for sake of not spending further going back over last 10 seasons or beyond but plenty of instances over the years then of clubs finishing 7th or above with a top scorer 12 goals or under.  Also in 2 or 3 of these cases the top scorer wasn't even their striker.

Statistically not sure what the percentages would be but regardless it's certainly more than possible, and all this of course assuming Raul maintains exactly the same form as current.

[Chi_FFC]

Coming here to reply to Angus and he's deleted his post! Anyhow, to answer your question Angus, over the past 10 seasons a club whose top PL scorer had 12 goals or fewer finished 7th or better 15 times (and on three of those occasions the club in question qualified for the Champions League!). That means 21% of the teams who've finished top 7 in the past ten seasons have lacked a goal scorer who scored more than 12 goals in their league campaign.* So no, a team finishing in the top 7 without a 13+ goal scorer is not nearly as rare as you seemed to suggest in your post which you quickly deleted.

*And if you expand your criteria just slightly to teams without a 15 goal scorer, you add a further 4 (3 with a 13 goal scorer and 1 with a 14 goal scorer).

[LC]

I think it's fairly straight forward. We have the best chance we'll ever get to finish in the top 6 but only if we get a centre forward in who hits the ground running. Some big 'buts' there.

Nothing wrong with Jiminez or Muniz but we need that special something up top if we want top 6.

[Chi_FFC]

Didnt happen last year but

You missed one there. Chelsea finished 4th in 20-21 and their top league scorer (Jorghino) only had 7!

[Twig]

How haven't we signed anyone yet!?

I know; Khan out, Silva out, Ali Mack out..........anyone else I've missed out?

[alfie]

I think it's fairly straight forward. We have the best chance we'll ever get to finish in the top 6 but only if we get a centre forward in who hits the ground running. Some big 'buts' there.

Nothing wrong with Jiminez or Muniz but we need that special something up top if we want top 6.

Even if we get a striker in, there is no guarantee that he will score goals.

[filham]

Sess.is lurking around somewhere, he has demonstrated in the past that he can score goals, what has Silva got in mind for him. A replacement left back for Robinson or a goalscoring midfield player.

[Angus Telford]

Edit** Ah I see you retracted your question before I had replied Angus. It seems you were wondering how many teams finish 7th with a striker only on 12 goals (Rauls current projection according to Goals per game I assume) with the suggestion presumably that it's likely very rare? I'm assuming you looked it up and retracted which is reasonable - perhaps you saw what I did below - hopefully it gives ya some belief in its possibility.**

It didnt happen last year but

Brighton Finished 6th in 22/23 with a top scorer of 10 Goals (Macallister)
Chelsea 3rd in 21/22 top scorer on 10 goals (Mount)
Arsenal 5th in 21/22 Top scorer: 11 (Saka)
West Ham 7th in 21/22 Top scorer : 12 (Bowen)
West Ham 6th in 20-21: top scorer on 10 (antonio)
Utd and Wolves scraped it in 18/19 6th and 7th with 13 goal top scorers each (Pogba & Jiminez)
Chelsea 6th 17/18 - 12 Goal (Hazard)
Burnley 7th 17/18 - 10 Gols (Wood)

Will leave it at that for sake of not spending further going back over last 10 seasons or beyond but plenty of instances over the years then of clubs finishing 7th or above with a top scorer 12 goals or under.  Also in 2 or 3 of these cases the top scorer wasn't even their striker.

Statistically not sure what the percentages would be but regardless it's certainly more than possible, and all this of course assuming Raul maintains exactly the same form as current.

I retracted it because I felt like I'd posted an unhealthy amount of times on the thread, but since you've now pretty much left me no option to continue, I'll say that you scanning the entire top 7 going back 7 seasons (ie 49 teams) and found 9 that did it, I make that an 82% majority that did have a high goalscorer. Then factor in how many of those teams had another striker on 10+ goals (eg West Ham/Antonio in 21/22) which we almost certainly won't, and I bet it's more like 90%+. Hence the 12 goal Clint Dempsey seasons like I already mentioned, are somewhat a freak occurrence. 

As a slight aside for the record, the point of these posts from me isn't that we need to sign another striker in January. The Jan window is an awful time to do business. The mistake in not replacing Mitrovic was made in summer 2023, and perpetuated in summer 2024, but now IMO we should suck it up for this season and fix it in summer 2025 (early in the window).

[Chi_FFC]

Our leading scorers in the 08-09 season when we finished 7th and qualified for our historic Europe League run were Dempsey and Andy Johnson, each with 7 goals. That same season Everton and Arsenal also finished in the top 7 without a 12 goal scorer (Everton had two with 8). In 2010-11 when Clint scored 12 and we finished 8th, Everton finished ahead of us and their leading goal scorer only had 9.

[sunburywhite]

we need a target man like Sandro Kulenovic

[Angus Telford]

Our leading scorers in the 08-09 season when we finished 7th and qualified for our historic Europe League run were Dempsey and Andy Johnson, each with 7 goals. That same season Everton and Arsenal also finished in the top 7 without a 12 goal scorer (Everton had two with 8). In 2010-11 when Clint scored 12 and we finished 8th, Everton finished ahead of us and their leading goal scorer only had 9.

I mean look, if you sincerely think we're going to finish 7th, there's no need to clog the thread with an argument. Let's just wait five months and we'll know. I'm gonna stick my neck out and say a team that lost 4-1 at home to Wolves, and is still put about 12th in the league by the bookies, ain't finishing 7th. The two seasons you mention are outliers in PL history, and in both we played a much more defence oriented style. Happy to eat my words if I'm wrong, or we could even have a wager.

[Chi_FFC]

Our leading scorers in the 08-09 season when we finished 7th and qualified for our historic Europe League run were Dempsey and Andy Johnson, each with 7 goals. That same season Everton and Arsenal also finished in the top 7 without a 12 goal scorer (Everton had two with 8). In 2010-11 when Clint scored 12 and we finished 8th, Everton finished ahead of us and their leading goal scorer only had 9.

I mean look, if you sincerely think we're going to finish 7th

There you go with a strawman argument. You know I never said anything about where we'll finish this season. I've simply pointed out in multiple posts that your original post (which you deleted, and we all know why...I mean seriously, when have you ever been concerned about posting an "unhealthy amount of times" in a thread???), in which you suggested that a team finishing 7th or better in the PL without a 13+ goal scorer is basically rarer than hen's teeth*, was flat out wrong. Over the past decade plus, ~20% of the teams finishing in the top 7 have lacked a 13+ goal scorer.

*And tbc, that's exactly what you were suggesting in the deleted post...and I obviously wasn't the only one to notice it.

[jayffc]

Edit** Ah I see you retracted your question before I had replied Angus. It seems you were wondering how many teams finish 7th with a striker only on 12 goals (Rauls current projection according to Goals per game I assume) with the suggestion presumably that it's likely very rare? I'm assuming you looked it up and retracted which is reasonable - perhaps you saw what I did below - hopefully it gives ya some belief in its possibility.**

It didnt happen last year but

Brighton Finished 6th in 22/23 with a top scorer of 10 Goals (Macallister)
Chelsea 3rd in 21/22 top scorer on 10 goals (Mount)
Arsenal 5th in 21/22 Top scorer: 11 (Saka)
West Ham 7th in 21/22 Top scorer : 12 (Bowen)
West Ham 6th in 20-21: top scorer on 10 (antonio)
Utd and Wolves scraped it in 18/19 6th and 7th with 13 goal top scorers each (Pogba & Jiminez)
Chelsea 6th 17/18 - 12 Goal (Hazard)
Burnley 7th 17/18 - 10 Gols (Wood)

Will leave it at that for sake of not spending further going back over last 10 seasons or beyond but plenty of instances over the years then of clubs finishing 7th or above with a top scorer 12 goals or under.  Also in 2 or 3 of these cases the top scorer wasn't even their striker.

Statistically not sure what the percentages would be but regardless it's certainly more than possible, and all this of course assuming Raul maintains exactly the same form as current.

I retracted it because I felt like I'd posted an unhealthy amount of times on the thread, but since you've now pretty much left me no option to continue, I'll say that you scanning the entire top 7 going back 7 seasons (ie 49 teams) and found 9 that did it, I make that an 82% majority that did have a high goalscorer. Then factor in how many of those teams had another striker on 10+ goals (eg West Ham/Antonio in 21/22) which we almost certainly won't, and I bet it's more like 90%+. Hence the 12 goal Clint Dempsey seasons like I already mentioned, are somewhat a freak occurrence. 

As a slight aside for the record, the point of these posts from me isn't that we need to sign another striker in January. The Jan window is an awful time to do business. The mistake in not replacing Mitrovic was made in summer 2023, and perpetuated in summer 2024, but now IMO we should suck it up for this season and fix it in summer 2025 (early in the window).

Why so sure that we won't have another player able to hit 10? It's not the norm but it's certainly plausible.

We already have Iwobi also on 5 and ESR and Wilson on 3 with 22 games to go, it's not out of the question for one of our players to go on a streak like Muniz did last year (including Raul)

Also youre detracting from the original point here again (a bit of a pattern tbh at this point ) and obscuring things.
Talking about percentages and an 82% majority etc is by the by when it relates to all top 7 positions including title winners/chasers etc. thats not the point.

far more relevant way to look at it in the original context you were arguing is that in 5 of the last 7 seasons a team has finished 7th ...or even higher without a 13+ goal striker. So its something that's happened most seasons of late - that at least 1, but even up to 3 teams in a season manage it. So why not us?

In saying so, no one's guaranteeing here we finish 7th or is lumping cash on it or saying it's the most likely scenario, were just not as glass half empty and so dont get bogged down in the same sort of doubling down on the negative perspective all the time. We clearly have so far shown we can compete around there with what we have, is it possible we don't maintain that enough to compete for 7th? Sure, but it's also completely reasonable to suggest we can, because we are so far.

OBVIOUSLY the odds are against us doing so, and obviously having a 15+ goal striker is useful. But it's easier said than done and a bit of an over simplistic statement (Even solanke this season had nigh on 60m spent in him only to score the same as Iwobi and Raul so far, you'd bloody expect him to be doubling their total at this point for that kinda money)

I agree January isn't the best for value but if there's an option available I'd be up for some extra firepower, if only to see vinicius depart and give us anotber viable option. But I still see that what we have has clearly contributed very well to being in the race for 7th and so In the meantime I hope Muniz' goal at Liverpool helps boost him and we/he can get a few more under our belt against Southampton.

With Raul aging we will eventually bring in competition him soon ,if not in Jan then potentially in the summer. Top half is the goal for the year according to the squad and manager, hopefully we can keep competing as well as we have been all year.

[LC]

I think it's fairly straight forward. We have the best chance we'll ever get to finish in the top 6 but only if we get a centre forward in who hits the ground running. Some big 'buts' there.

Nothing wrong with Jiminez or Muniz but we need that special something up top if we want top 6.

Even if we get a striker in, there is no guarantee that he will score goals.

You could say that about any player lol. Of course there's no guarantees, but if we have the budget and the right player comes along we should move for him

[Angus Telford]

Our leading scorers in the 08-09 season when we finished 7th and qualified for our historic Europe League run were Dempsey and Andy Johnson, each with 7 goals. That same season Everton and Arsenal also finished in the top 7 without a 12 goal scorer (Everton had two with 8). In 2010-11 when Clint scored 12 and we finished 8th, Everton finished ahead of us and their leading goal scorer only had 9.

I mean look, if you sincerely think we're going to finish 7th

There you go with a strawman argument. You know I never said anything about where we'll finish this season. I've simply pointed out in multiple posts that your original post (which you deleted, and we all know why...I mean seriously, when have you ever been concerned about posting an "unhealthy amount of times" in a thread???) in which you suggested that a team finishing 7th or better in the PL without a 13+ goal scorer is basically rarer than hen's teeth* was flat out wrong. Over the past decade plus, ~20% of the teams finishing in the top 7 have lacked a 13+ goal scorer.

*And tbc, that's exactly what you were suggesting in the deleted post...and I obviously wasn't the only one to notice it.

My last four posts before this one all mention the aim/litmus test (IMO) of finishing at least 7th. It's hardly a tangential strawman I've suddenly turned to.

The stats you've produced about other teams confirm the point I made at outset, that to finish in the top 7, you generally need someone scoring more goals than any of our strikers are on course to score this season.

As a general rule on here, when you start speculating about the psychology behind someone's post, rather than debating the facts at hand (Jay often does this too, when he speculates that I hate TK) it means you've lost the argument. I suggest you call it a day, and as I said, having posted too much on this thread already, I will too.

Goodnight.

[BarryP]

If the squad is "balanced" as you put then if we ran a poll now, "in which position do Fulham most need to upgrade?", you'd expect an even mix of responses, with some saying striker but just as many saying LB, GK etc. I don't think that would be that outcome, reckon 90% (probably more) recognise we're in dire need of a striker.

1. I never said the squad was balanced I said the spending was balanced across the squad. Fulham spent on CB's and are very strong there. Didn't invest much at FB but didn't need to. Spent on the midfield and are as strong or stronger there than before even without ESR firing on all cylinders. Spent on Iwobi who is a significant upgrade over BDR. Spent on forwards where we are weaker.

2. I read as many comments that Fulham need an upgrade on the wing over a striker as I read that Fulham need to prioritize a new striker.

3. Do you agree or disagree that this Fulham squad is stronger overall than any squad Mitro was in? I think it's very relevant to the conversation.

1. Seems we agree the current squad is unbalanced, ok.

2. I disagree, see for example the "Are we looking for a striker?" thread, but i accept this point is a matter of our subjective perception, and also that popular opinion is somewhat fickle/fluid anyway.

3. Yes I do think this squad is better than the last squad we had with Mitrovic in it. However, the difference is faily mild - at this point in the 22/23 season, we were in the same position (8th), with around 5-6 of the same starting XI and several others (Mitrovic, Palhinha and Willian) who'd walk into our current XI. But I don't think that proves much in our debate - in the two years since then, we and our peers have had a net budget in excess of £100m to improve, and i think expecting a newly-promoted side to at least slightly improve after three years of PL stability is a pretty basic minimum expectation.

Seems I may be a little more optimistic about the squad as it stands today and you may be a little more optimistic about Fulham being able to find a starting upgrade at forward in the winter window. Fair enough.

[demeant0r]

Our leading scorers in the 08-09 season when we finished 7th and qualified for our historic Europe League run were Dempsey and Andy Johnson, each with 7 goals. That same season Everton and Arsenal also finished in the top 7 without a 12 goal scorer (Everton had two with 8). In 2010-11 when Clint scored 12 and we finished 8th, Everton finished ahead of us and their leading goal scorer only had 9.

I mean look, if you sincerely think we're going to finish 7th

There you go with a strawman argument. You know I never said anything about where we'll finish this season. I've simply pointed out in multiple posts that your original post (which you deleted, and we all know why...I mean seriously, when have you ever been concerned about posting an "unhealthy amount of times" in a thread???), in which you suggested that a team finishing 7th or better in the PL without a 13+ goal scorer is basically rarer than hen's teeth*, was flat out wrong. Over the past decade plus, ~20% of the teams finishing in the top 7 have lacked a 13+ goal scorer.

*And tbc, that's exactly what you were suggesting in the deleted post...and I obviously wasn't the only one to notice it.

The examples you have given us are over a decade old. I'm sure if you compare anything current to 10+ years ago, it will not be very relevant. As you said about 20% of those in the past decade who finished top 7 didn't have a 13+ striker, which means if you did have one you were four times more likely to end up in top 7. Don't think anyone is saying buying a new striker will guarantee top seven or even guarantee 10+ goals a season, just look at the current lot we bought. If we had someone like Mitro, who is more than capable of 10+ a season, in our current squad we'd be in for a shout to finish top 7.

[Chi_FFC]

Our leading scorers in the 08-09 season when we finished 7th and qualified for our historic Europe League run were Dempsey and Andy Johnson, each with 7 goals. That same season Everton and Arsenal also finished in the top 7 without a 12 goal scorer (Everton had two with 8). In 2010-11 when Clint scored 12 and we finished 8th, Everton finished ahead of us and their leading goal scorer only had 9.

I mean look, if you sincerely think we're going to finish 7th

There you go with a strawman argument. You know I never said anything about where we'll finish this season. I've simply pointed out in multiple posts that your original post (which you deleted, and we all know why...I mean seriously, when have you ever been concerned about posting an "unhealthy amount of times" in a thread???) in which you suggested that a team finishing 7th or better in the PL without a 13+ goal scorer is basically rarer than hen's teeth* was flat out wrong. Over the past decade plus, ~20% of the teams finishing in the top 7 have lacked a 13+ goal scorer.

*And tbc, that's exactly what you were suggesting in the deleted post...and I obviously wasn't the only one to notice it.

My last four posts before this one all mention the aim/litmus test (IMO) of finishing at least 7th. It's hardly a tangential strawman I've suddenly turned to.

The stats you've produced about other teams confirm the point I made at outset, that to finish in the top 7, you generally need someone scoring more goals than any of our strikers are on course to score this season.

1) Of course you were engaging in a straw man argument in that reply to me. I'd never said anything about where I thought we were going to finish this season. In both my previous posts (#'s 170 and 177) all I had done is point out that you were clearly mistaken when you suggested that it was extremely rare for a club to finish top 7 without a 13+ goal scorer. And instead of just admitting you were wrong, you attempted to shift the argument/discussion to a topic I had said nothing about. Exactly the kind of tactic certain posters take when they've clearly lost an argument.

2)The stats do no such thing (confirm the point you made at the outset, that is). In your original (deleted) post you were clearly suggesting that it is EXTREMELY rare for a team to finish in the top 7 without a 13+ goal scorer. And the stats produced by me (and another poster) make clear that you were wrong...over the past decade plus ~1.4 teams per season manage to do it. 

Anyhow, I should have known better than to have engaged with you and that (now) deleted post as discussions with you on this board are, to put it charitably, rarely constructive.